Please begin a new chapter for the Yarnell Hill Fire comments here:
Previous Comments:
Chapter I, Chapter II, Chapter II supplement, Chapter III and Chapter IV.
Thank you, John
© Copyright 2014 John Dougherty, All rights Reserved. Written For: Investigative MEDIA
Gary Olson says
Joy – I did not call Elizabeth a “fool.” In fact, I did not call anyone a fool. I said I did not argue with fools. That statement implied that I thought Elizabeth’s stable of closet fire experts who are attempting to make a case that the Granite Mountain Hotshots had to leave the black and march in front of a wall of flames were fools, and I was not going to argue with them. Now, if Elizabeth wants to try on that shoe, and if it fits her, that is up to her.
The bottom line is this. Tex instinctively knew to leave the area in the right direction (there were several to choose from) at the right time (other times would have worked as well) but the Granite Mountain Hotshots under the leadership of Eric Marsh as the Division A Supervisor and Jesse Steed as the Acting Crew Boss made a calculated and conscious decision to march their crew in the direction the fire was burning, south by southeast, as it was being driven by very strong outflow winds from a thunder cell that had been predicted to appear by the National Weather Service well in advance. AFTER being strongly advised to remain where they were, SAFE and in the BLACK.
And both Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed acknowledged that they received that warning and in fact observed the weather event in progress, and they clearly observed the fire had in fact reversed direction, and was now putting up a pyro cumulous cloud of ash and smoke that rose several thousand feet in the air, which every firefighter and every other person with any common sense knows means the situation has deteriorated to the point that there is nothing any person, or any equipment invented or built by people, can do to try and control said fire.
I have long been asking the question, “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots die?” in an attempt to reconcile what I had heard from others about Eric Marsh with what Eric Marsh did. RTS has now answered that question based on the consensus of the most highly recognized and respected leaders in the field of hotshot crews today…and that was a group of hotshot superintendents who walked the remains of the Yarnell Hill Fire. Eric Marsh made a catastrophic mistake, and he killed himself and his crew.
Although RTS is technically correct, Jesse Steed could have overruled Eric Marsh who was acting as Division Group Supervisor, since Jesse Steed was Acting as the Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew Boss, and refused to follow him…so Jesse Steed does have some responsibility for that decision as well. BUT, I think that we all can acknowledge (or at least I can) that in the real world, Jesse Steed was obligated to follow Eric Marsh once his decision was made.
The crew also had some obligation (according to others, not me) to voice their objections to follow their leaders down such a reckless path, which was a death chute, and that path was obviously a death chute, since similar death chutes have been killing hotshots since 1966, and they have been pointed out in countless training exercises to be death chutes. But I happen to know in the real world of hotshots, that choice was not an option for the crew…so they died as hotshots. Doing exactly what their leaders ordered them to do, which by the way, works almost all of the time, in fact, that method for survival has only failed hotshots 4 times in the history of wildland firefighting, the Loop Fire of 1966 (12 El Cariso Hotshots dead, including the crew boss), the Battlement Creek Fire of 1976 (3 Mormon Lake Hotshots dead, including the crew boss, with a fourth hotshot severely burned), and the South Canyon Fire of 1994 (9 Prineville Hotshots dead)…and the Yarnell Hill Fire of 2013 (19 Granite Mountain Hotshots dead, including the crew boss).
I have reconciled what I heard about the Granite Mountain Hotshots with what Eric Marsh did, because I had heard how good Eric Marsh was from Darrell Willis and his circle of fire buddies. That assessment turned out to be exaggerated or misplaced or something else altogether, other that correct. Eric Marsh decided to break almost all of the rules that have been developed over more than 100 years of widland firefighting in American, specifically to protect wildland firefighters…all at once, and apparently without a backup plan.
So…the big question has been answered for me. There remains however, several unanswered questions which are…exactly what role did everyone else play in contributing or casual factors in the deaths of the Granite Mountain Hotshots? I’m afraid that discussion is going to outlive you, me, and everyone else who is participating in the thread. BUT…I am convinced that there are many others who are also responsible for the deaths of those 19 heroes, and most of them work for the State of Arizona, Division of Forestry, and the City of Prescott, Prescott Fire Department.
HOWEVER, I think the leadership of the both the City of Prescott of and State of Arizona should take a look in the mirror and ask themselves, “What could I have done to prevent this tragedy?”
Now…may God bless both you and Tex in all of your future hikes and endeavors together, and I want to thank both you and Tex for all of your tireless efforts to bring some clarity to what is now the worst disaster (baring the Idaho fires of 1910, which don’t really count) in the history of wildland firefighting in the United States. May you find what we are all searching for…a way to fix our broken hearts, or at least make them feel just a little bit better.
Hank says
If you have any question as to if Elizabeth is a fool, read https://ams.confex.com/ams/11FIRE/webprogram/Paper273187.html and her discussion of “uber-extreme fire behavior”. Then decide
John Dougherty says
Please move comments to Chapter VI. Please provide feedback on whether it is easier to have the most recent comments posted at the top of the string or at the end. Thanks, John
Robert the Second says
I wrote this phrase down yesterday to touch on it today. It’s been bandied about a few times recently. “Speaking ill of the dead.”
We’re NOT ‘speaking ill of the dead’ but we are speaking to and addressing what they DID or DID NOT do that resulted in their deaths. THEY were the ones that made the bad decisions with the bad outcomes. No one else made those fatal decisions for them, no one held a virtual gun to their heads, there was NO Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads threatening them.
So, it’s only fair that I back off Marsh being the one totally responsible for the GMHS fatalities. Marsh was the Division Supervisor of DIV A that day and Jesee Steed was the Acting GMHS Superintendent. Therefore, Steed was fully responsible that day for the GMHS safety and welfare. Even though Marsh may have been tangentially responsible for the fatal outcomes that day, Steed was the one ultimately responsible for what happened June 30th.
Steed and Matrsh knew or should have known better to strictly follow the well established WFF Rules on June 30th.
John Dougherty says
Please Move the Comments to a new Chapter VI. Thank you, John
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
**
** DAVE LARSEN, ONE OF THE AUTHORS OF THE
** ADOSH WFAR REPORT, HAS DIED
Apologies if some think this is ‘off topic’ for this ongoing discussion… but if
you read all three sections below you will see that it is not.
It involves Dave Larsen, the infamous Station Fire in California, a chance
meeting and a ‘backfire’ operation between Larsen, the Helena Hotshots, and
Marsh and the Granite Mountain Hotshots on September 1, 2009, at the
infamous Station Fire.
Dave Larsen was the one who was in charge of analyzing the fire operations
and overhead performance on the Yarnell Hill Fire for the ADOSH Wildland Fire
Associates Report ( WFAR ).
The WFAR was contracted by ADOSH and was the basis for most of their own
reported findings and FINE recommendations, and was released at the same
time the ADOSH report was released.
The WFAR never got much press ( or even much attention ). It has a narrative
that reads a lot like the SAIR ( and, indeed, borrowed a lot of timeline verbatim
from the SAIR )… but it really was quite different from the SAIR.
The WFAR ( due in no small part to Mr. Dave Larsen himself ) came to its OWN
conclusions that the organizational aspects and operational performance on the
Yarnell Fire bordered on ‘chaos’ and that there was FAR too much emphasis
being placed on structure protection that day ( but not even doing that very
well or even very safely ).
Mr. Dave Larsen personally felt VERY strongly that Wildland Firefighting and
Structural Firefighting ‘cultures’ should NOT be ‘mixed’ and is quoted ( even in
his own obituary reprinted below ) as saying that he could “Never understand
risking lives to save structures”.
The last paragraph of his actual obituary ( below ) is worth reading. It is all about
how he hoped his work on the ADOSH WFAR report would someday help to
save lives.
Rest in peace… Dave Larsen.
** DAVE LARSEN’S OBITUARY
Dave Larsen’s Obituary ( with a photo of him )…
http://helenair.com/news/local/obituaries/dave-larsen/article_1ab8f7ee-96e3-11e3-89f9-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true
From the Obituary…
_________________________________________________________________
Dave Larsen — the man, the myth, the legend — left us without warning
on Feb. 12, 2014. Dave was born April 6, 1952, in Omaha, Neb., to Delbert
and Frances (Hamon) Larsen. He joined his older brother, Dan, and they
spent their early years in Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas on various
Air Force bases. In 1961, his father got a job in Kalispell, where Dave
lived until moving to Helena in 1968 and graduating from Helena High
School in 1970. Dave went on to earn both a bachelor’s degree in
history and an electrical engineering degree from MSU (Go, Bobcats!).
Dave spent the majority of his career working for the U.S. Forest Service
in fire management, beginning with a job manning Hogback Lookout and,
after more 30 years, retiring as the fire management officer on the Helena
Ranger District. To say Dave’s career was amazing is an understatement.
He became nationally recognized as an expert in all aspects of fire
management. He held numerous positions over the years on incident
command teams, achieving status as one of the few and elite National
Type 1 Incident commanders. He became one of only five IC’s who were
certified in all three genres of firefighting — fire suppression, prescribed fire
and the use of fire in wilderness. (See IR article from June 12, 2009.) In
addition to the numerous fire assignments around the country, Dave also
played a support role in historical events such as Hurricane Katrina and
Columbia Shuttle Recovery efforts.
Utmost in Dave’s philosophy, however, was firefighter safety.
He could never understand risking lives to save structures.
As such, a recent accomplishment he was very proud of was his
work with Wildland Fire Associates on an investigation of the
Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona last summer where 19 firefighters perished.
Dave felt like his contributions would make a difference in keeping
lives safe in the future.
________________________________________________________________
** DAVE LARSEN – WFAR AUTHOR
Page 5 of the WFAR…
DAVE LARSEN, ANALYSIS OF FIRE OPERATIONS & OVERHEAD TEAM
Page 45 of WFAR…
DAVE LARSEN, B.S.
SENIOR CONSULTANT
Mr. Larsen is an expert in fire management and the tactical application of
resources in fire suppression. Mr. Larsen has held the positions of Incident
Commander Type I, Deputy Incident Commander Type I, Incident Commander
Type II, Prescribed Burn Boss Type I, Prescribed Fire Manager Type I, and Fire
Use Manager Type I. Mr. Larsen’s fire management experience includes work
as a fire lookout, district engine foreman and crewmember, district trail
crewmember, district brush disposal crew and a hot shot crew supervisor.
Mr. Larsen was a District Fire Management Officer as well as a Forest Fire
Management Officer for the Helena National Forest. Mr. Larsen’s expertise
includes All-Risk Incident Commander including Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
Operation Section Chief, Type II, and Fire Behavior Analyst, Type II. Additionally,
Mr. Larsen has Instructed S290, S390, S490, S339, S330, I400 and other ICS
courses.
** DAVE LARSEN, THE HELENA HOTSHOTS, THE STATION FIRE,
** AND ERIC MARSH AND GRANITE MOUNTAIN
In a strange twist of fate…
Dave Larsen’s BIO in WFAR says he was a ‘Hot Shot Supervisor’…
but it fails to mention that he was, in fact, the Superintendent of the
Helena Hotshots… who worked with Eric Marsh and the Granite Mountain
Hotshots during the ‘Station Fire’ in California in 2009.
( NOTE: The Station Fire is one of the ones mentioned by both
Elizabeth and RTS just yesterday ).
The Helena Hotshots were mostly assigned to help protect the
historic Mount Wilson Observatory during their time on the Station Fire.
There are public accounts online at the Mount Wilson Observatory itself
of the efforts that were made to protect the observatory and they
mention BOTH the “Helena Hotshots’ AND the “Granite Mountain Hotshots”.
On one particular day… the Granite Mountain Hotshots deployed from
the parking lot of the Mount Wilson Observatory itself and, together
with the Helena Hotshots, were assigned to perform ‘backfires’ near the
observatory for most of that one day they were working together.
There are no ‘revelations’ in these (public) accounts… or any ‘stories’ about
how those ‘backfiring’ operations really went… but I just thought
I would point out this connection between Dave Larsen, Superintendent
of the Helena Hotshots in 2009, Eric Marsh, Granite Mountain, and
then Dave Larsen’s ultimate participation in the very investigation
that tried to find out what really happened to Marsh and Granite
Mountain four years later on June 30, 2013.
Again… RIP Dave Larsen.
We all share your hope that one day, a FULL, complete investigation of what
really happened in Yarnell on June 30, 2013, will help save lives in the future.
calvin says
Thanks
Gary Olson says
It sounds to me like Dave Larsen had it all figured out and was right about everything. What a loss to the world of wildland firefighters.
Thanks
Bob Powers says
I am trying to figure out what’s going on here I knew Larsen He was a Fire management officer and type 1 IC in 2009 not a Superintendent. But still would have been a supervisor on that fire in some capacity, and had both crews under him.
Robert the Second says
Bob,
You’re correct. According to the Helena HS webpage, Larsen was their Superintendent (Crew Boss in those days) from 1983 through 1988.
Bob Powers says
Getting old and lazy about looking things up but knew he had promoted before I retired in 94.
Marshall Krotenberg says
WTKTT – Thank you for the detailed post.
I only new Dave for a short time but during that time I learned that he was extremely passionate about his trade, his peers, and his family. He worked hard, thought deeply, and was thoughtful of others.
Gary Olson says
J. Stout said, “Am glad you spoke up about this, Mr. Powers. Because she is playing her own game here. And it’s the WFF’s who are getting played.”
Spooky, and not something I considered. Although I thought you were going to say she is collecting information on the side for a book she is planning on writing. I strongly agree with WTKTT, and everyone else that no one should be collecting information on the side and privately. This is supposed to be a public forum.
Thanks
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
For the record, I ( me, personally ) have NO problem with anyone
‘collecting information’ regarding the Yarnell Hill Fire or anything
related to it. I actually wish more people WERE doing just that,
AND sharing it publicly.
We are not talking about Exxon Mobile, here.
ALL of the agencies involved with this incident are PUBLIC
agencies, funded with PUBLIC money, and pretty much every
single person who was ‘working’ that fire that day is, in
fact, a PUBLIC servant ( though I gather now that most of
them hate to ever be reminded of that simple fact ).
ANYONE is allowed to file FOIA ( Freedom of Information Act )
or APRR ( Arizona Public Records Requests ).
What I DO have a problem with is someone continually
‘announcing’ ( on any PUBLIC forum ) that they have ‘all this
information that others don’t have’… and then refusing to
talk about it in an open manner.
To me… that’s just more ‘game playing’… and we’ve certainly
already had enough of THAT regarding this incident.
I am absolutely sure that some people known for writing books
about Wildland Fire also already have a lot of information
that ‘we don’t have’… and I’m sure we will probably see the
results of THEIR efforts one of these days ( because that’s
what they do for a living )…
…but as for ‘other’ people who have gone to great lengths
to obtain the information but still won’t share that information
OR say what they plan to do with it… OR answer any
questions about even what they keep saying they know
that others don’t…
…well… that’s their business, I guess.
It’s all gonna come out (in public) eventually… I guarantee.
I am hoping for sooner rather than later.
Gary Olson says
Well… agree with you, in fact I said,
Spooky, and not something I considered. Although I thought you were going to say she is collecting information on the side for a book she is planning on writing. I strongly agree with WTKTT, and everyone else that no one should be collecting information on the side and privately. This is supposed to be a public forum.
Thanks
Which part of that do you think disagrees with what you are saying?
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Well… I guess what I meant was…. ( I’m gonna
reverse your quote for a second )…
>> This is supposed to be a public forum.
Indeed… it is nothing but that.
This is just ONE place where, as you said…
The GOOD news is that we have a public forum
to share our opinions.
The BAD news is that we have a public forum
to share our opinions.
ROFL
>> no one should be collecting information on the
>> side and privately.
I could care less who is ( or isn’t ) ‘collecting
information on the side’ and/or ‘privately’.
That’s their business.
I wish more people WERE doing that… AND
then ‘sharing’ the information instead of holding
onto it like’s it’s some sort of personal prize.
Gary Olson says
Well, I was referring to me mostly. The good news is I have a place to put my opinions and thoughts, the bad news is that I have a place to put my opinions and thoughts because obviously I should keep a lot of them to myself.
And as far as collecting information on the side, I am still having no luck with getting my full explanation of that sentence and my explanation to Elizabeth through for some reason and I hope it doesn’t eventually show up 6 times.
You right, I don’t care how much information anybody collects and obviously anybody can have anything I have, including most of my random thoughts on this subject.
BUT, I do think to continually obliquely and coyly referring to information that someone has collected in a teasing manner is not cool when that someone puts forth what I consider to be ridiculous theories which are supposedly substantiated by an unknown stable of experts who have graphs and charts and who knows what else that is being used to support them under the guise of exploring all options, well…I don’t think that how a public forum is supposed to work.
The word “scary” refers to the possibility that WFF are being played for one side or the other, although as I have continually said, I do think the county and the state own a lot of this tragedy as contributing or casual factors. So if Elizabeth is working for them, I would actually help her if I could.
Gary Olson says
What does ROFL mean?
Gary Olson says
The Readers Digest version of my comment that won’t go through is that I did not call Elizabeth a “fool”, I implied that I though her stable of experts are fools to try and make a case that Eric Marsh had to leave the black because of anticipated weather conditions or other ridiculous reasons.
Eric Marsh and the Granite Moutian Hotshots were in a SAFE place and they could have gone in almost any direction other than what they did and it would have been safe at almost any time except when they did and they would have been safe.
I also explained in some detail we should be thanking RTS for his inside information and insight and not attacking him.
I also said that RTS answered the big question for me, which is “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots die?” And that is the part that is “case closed” for me. It was hard to accept, but I have to.
The discussion can go on forever as far as I’m concerned, there are still a lot of unanswered questions like all of those contributing factors.
Bob Powers says
I agree totally…..
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Copy (all) that…
…and also agree.
There is STILL a lot of
detail to be discovered.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Gary Olson post on
March 22, 2014 at 4:08 am
>> Gary asked…
>> What does ROFL mean?
Sorry about that.
It’s GEEK talk ( acronyms ).
LOL
Laughing Out Loud
ROFL
Rolling On The Floor Laughing
LMAO
Laughing My Ass Off
LMFAO
Laughing My Fucking Ass Off
ROFLALMFAO
Rolling On the Floor Laughing
AND Laughing My Fucking
Ass Off ( simultaneously )
AFAICT
As Far As I Can Tell
IIRC
If I Recall Correctly
IAOI
If ( And Only If )
Stuff like that.
Gary Olson says
thank you,
Gary Olson says
Elizabeth,
I am having trouble getting my response to go through…so here is the short answer while I am waiting for that to happen. Please go back and read my comment, I did not call you a fool.
Gary Olson says
test
Robert the Second says
Joy,
Here’s my response to your March 21 at 12:59 post:
“Joy, You posted “how people respect all BUT Elizabeth’s comments…” (I emphasized here)
I think it’s fair to say that I and all others here respect Elizabeth’s comments when they make sense, are not hypocrtical, not logical fallacies, and not contradictory.
If they fall into the above categories, then I and others are going to disagree and comment accordingly – and we do. It’s a PUBLIC FORUM. And yet we are railed on because of that. To disagree is NOT to be intolerant. It’s just a disagreement.
The ‘tolerance’ individuals seem to feel that way though. As long as you agree with them, then you’re tolerant, but once you disagree with them then you’re intolerant. WTF is that all about? Liberal logic as far as I’m concerned.”
Sonny says
Just reading what the page has today. The other day, Joy was reading what Elizabeth wrote and Elizabeth asked how come everyone seem to be getting the respect including Joy but not Elizabeth. So your re-quote of Joy was going off a comment Elizabeth left. Joy is busy today. I was there when she typed it so I know she was not saying others disrespected Elizabeth but she was writing in reply to a comment that Elizabeth commented. You will not meet a more oddly pair as her and I. We may be opposites yet we do have an understanding that we agree to disagree and it works. I respect Joy. Joy respects me. Simple. If anyone felt disrespected from us then we apologize for not acknowledging such action(s). Joy is right in one of her comments. She and I saw the same fire yet I said let’s get the hell out of here and Joy is alive today because I made her leave earlier then the men. How come the fire management or leaders did not see the same dangers as me?
Joy A Collura says
Made it. I am only here to reply here and off I go. I told Sonny (Tex) I am too busy today. Sonny (Tex) seems to think there is a concern that we are not supportive here on the comment wall and to a lady who has been above and beyond yet she feels we have been hurtful to her. Again, I have limited time online. We get a chuckle from Gary’s comments and had no idea Gary was making offensive remarks. We skim. We do not have the online time to read in detail yet I know we like his overall wit. Shit, I really cannot wonder if every word I type is going to be analysed and twisted. Sonny said I said you all disrespected Elizabeth when it was the statement she said she wanted the same respect shown to her as Joy and RTS. That was the comment I was going from—I told Sonny I’d come down and comment but please REST the horse shit you all who seem to think to write privately on it. I won’t feed the fuel. I am not interested in details of such but since Sonny publicly apologized I will here too. I am not mad. I am not angry. I at times get frustrated in regards to the Yarnell Hill fire when I have people show me things but not you all. Other than that I know I am here to help when its needed— Now, as for you all asking Sonny for my email. I have nothing in private I want to discuss with anyone. I have some heavy concerns health-wise that whoever has my personal email; has it already. Sonny aims for smoothing things quickly over and he told me I am on his email more then him and this is not facts. I am not on anywhere as people who know me know that. My focus has not been to emails or hikes. Yes, Michael Kodas wrote us both and Yes I did reply to him that we could not be available this weekend as he is in Yarnell—
Other than that, many peoples’ emails still sit in my inbox unopened. I just have other stuff going on-
I, Joy A Collura, apologize for any person who felt I offended them in ANY comments I posted.
ok, see ya—
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
**
** HERE WE GO ( AGAIN )…
>> On March 21, 2014 (TODAY) at 12:28 pm, Elizabeth said:
>>
>> Just so you know, I have NOTHING bad to say about Gary Cordes.
>> (The only thing I tried to say was that it was Cordes who was needing
>> help such that Musser reached out to DivsA to get some “resources”
>> (which, at that time, only really included GM, because Blue Ridge was
>> ALREADY working at the direction of Cordes, such that they were already
>> a “resource” that Cordes had at his disposal and already engaged in the
>> way he had directed). Please don’t anyone read into that. If I am being
>> unclear, ask me….)
Elizabeth…
First and foremost ( and I have said this about 3 times already )… I don’t
think there is anyone reading this ongoing discussion who doesn’t know
that you have worked just as hard as anyone at trying to shed more light
on the events of June 30, 2013… so AGAIN ( one more time with
feeling )… thank you for that ( ongoing thanks ). Thank you. Thank you.
Also… nothing that is going to follow can or should be considered me
‘hounding’ you, or ‘attacking’ you, or ‘trying to upset you’, or ‘treating you
unfairly on this (public) forum’ or ‘not reading for comprehension’ or ‘not
being a Christian’ or ‘picking on you’ or anything like that.
Ok. Is that enough hand-holding for you?
Feeling OK now?
Good… now… can we get back to business?
>> Elizabeth said…
>> If I am being unclear, ask me.
Okay. Here it comes.
>> Elizabeth said…
>> …it was Cordes who was needing help such that Musser reached
>> out to DivsA to get some “resources”.
That is certainly a good ‘guess’ that could be floated to support what little
was said about Musser’s ‘request for resources’ in the ADOSH report
( page 18 )… but you are NOT phrasing it as such.
You are stating this as if it was an ABSOLUTE FACT.
What gives YOU the right to do that… at this point?
What DIRECT PROOF do you have that SPGS1 Gary Cordes specifically
requested OPS2 Paul Musser to “Call Granite Mountain and see if they
can spare resources for ME”?
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> (which, at that time, only really included GM, because Blue Ridge was
>> ALREADY working at the direction of Cordes, such that they were already
>> a “resource” that Cordes had at his disposal and already engaged in the
>> way he had directed).
Again… that is presented by you as STATEMENT OF FACT.
What EVIDENCE do you have to support this statement?
There is nothing I can find in the PUBLIC record that supports this
VERY specific assertion you are making.
The only evidence in the public record actually just makes mincemeat
of your assertion that Blue Ridge was either…
A) Officially and specifically working directly for SPGS1 Gary Cordes at
ANY time that day… and that this was Blue Ridge’s understanding.
B) That Gary Cordes was not totally and fully aware that Blue Ridge was
a ‘free resource’ and ALREADY evacuating the Shrine area before he even
‘met with OPS2 Paul Musser’ ( See SAIT Investigation notes and
Blue Ridge unit logs ).
So in order to believe your assertion… you are going to have to provide
some hard evidence that directly CONTRADICTS other evidence
already in the public record.
We have, in fact, been here before… when you came out of nowhere
and made the same ‘assertions of fact’ earlier in this Chapter V ( See below ).
A lot of ‘feedback’ was supplied to you about this and requests were
made for you to supply hard evidence to back up these assertions…
…but you refused to cooperate with those requests.
Please do so now.
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
“Elizabeth on March 20, 2014 at 2:40 pm said:…. evidence that *I* have gathered does not suggest that Jesse Steed or Eric Marsh had a pattern of behaving in a needlessly and excessively risky manner. Marsh was actually commended by an outside fire official for GM’s and his work on the Station Fire.”
Okay then. That means several things to me. Marsh and Steed and the GMHS may have very well done a ‘commendable’ job on the Station Fire. It also means to me that the ‘outside official,’ could have merely been politically correct and given them a commendable rating or merely a boilerplate version like all the other Crews that worked for him. It may have also come from a municipal/wildland fire supervisor that had little or no wildland experience. The ‘commendable’ rating MAY have resulted from Marsh and/or Steed schmoozing the ‘outside official’ and he just thought they were all ‘nice guys.’ And some overhead from some agencies won’t even go up on the firelines, but supervise from their command vehicles in California. I would have to see the rating to see where the ‘outside offical’ was from, what Agency, what position, and what region of the country.
‘Commendable ratings’ in-and-of themselves mean very little to experienced WFF supervisors.
Now, square the above with the RTS post regarding the same Station Fire in California. “February 14, 2014 at 9:46 am RTS said…
“Regarding Marsh and the ALLEGED GMHS bad decsions with good outcomes attitude, the two fires where two separate HS Supts commented on Marsh seemingly always wanting to ‘ONE-UP-YOU’, they were the 2009 Station Fire on the Angeles NF and the 2011 Gladiator Fire on the Prescott NF.
The [California Senior HS] Supt. on the Station Fire said that Marsh and the GMHS was doing some fairly unconventional and unsafe tactics and GETTING AWAY WITH IT. He said they should have known better. He said he counseled Marsh on what he was doing, but it appeared that it did no good because he/they kept at it.”
I even added some qualifying words in the brackets to strengthen and give further credibility to the statement.
So then, given that Marsh and Steed and the GMHS Crew received a glowing ‘commendable rating’ from an ‘outside official’ on the Station Fire, that would mean that they performed their HS duties in a safe manner, and followed all the WFF ‘Rules.’ Right?
This is a link for an NWCG Crew Performance Evaluation. The ‘outside official’ may have used this form or the Individualform. Either way, the point is the same. http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/contracting/crews/crew_performance.pdf
You will notice the “USE OF SAFE PRACTICES” block. There are also blocks for ‘Supervisory Performances.’ Likewise, IF they received ‘commendable ratings’ here, then that means they allfollowed the WFF ‘Rules.’ Right?
Therefore, I give a lot more credence to the Senior CA HS Superintendent’s recollection on the Station Fire and the other SW Senior HS Superintendent’s recollection of the GMHS actions reflecting their need, their.compulsion, their whatever to “ONE-UP” other HS Crews.
Bad decisions with prior good outcomes ….
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
“Elizabeth on March 21, 2014 at 8:23 am said:
Gary, Bob, and RTS: Some of your most recent comments toward me have been needlessly and personally attacking, not to mention completely hurtful and upsetting (e.g. Gary calling me a “fool,” RTS mocking me, …. not needlessly insulting or attacking) …. but you have ignored my pleas.”
Needlessly and personally attcking you? I think NOT. You make statements and I and others respond if/when we disagree or whatever, so therefore they are NOT needless. As far as ‘personally’ goes, I think NOT again. To the best of my knowledge, there have been no ad hominem attacks on you personally. I can’t help it if you got offended by my ‘Queen’ of the Hill or whatever comment awhile back. I have been attacking your ACTIONS, your WORDS, your LOGIC, and the like. Those are NOT personal attacks. And as far as these being “completely hurtful and upsetting” I’m afraid you’re engaging in drama and histrionics here. COMPLETELY? Really? You’re on your own on the hurtful and upsetting prongs because those are entirely YOUR reactions. Nobody caused those but you.
….
Regarding RTS’ claim of Being Christian, you posted “…. , I expect RTS to be honest and kind in his response. Unless he was lying about being a Christian. (Love thy neighbor, RTS, I believe is on the Christian “to-do” list….).”
Nice hypocrtical slam here. You do have a talent for that and logical fallacies as well. Honest? I have been completely HONEST in my posts and my replies to you. But that seems to be what offends you, my HONESTY. So, I am NOT lying about being a Christian. Why would I do that? Yes, I am a Christian and I’m very thankful for that. ‘Love thy neighbor’? Got it. None of this or any other blog has anything to do with that. So then, what’s that comment all about? It’s the words, the actions, the how, why, what, when, where that counts.
“Elizabeth posted on March 21, 2014 at 9:47 am: …. I am trying to figure out what they were THINKING, whether there could have POSSIBLY been a reason why the black did not sit well with them. There is no way to figure that OUT without examining all possible reasons why the black might have been bad, right? …. it seems useful to try to think about why they might have rejected the idea of sitting in the black. ….” And “Elizabeth on March 21, 2014 at 10:21 am said: Where did I make a misleading suggestion that GM got scared down?” I think you pretty much insinuated that above.
What were they thinking? I allege they were thinking about other times they had similar experiences and gotten away with it, and this situation is similar, so …. I’ll tell you what they were NOT thinking – they were NOT thinking about the WFF rules. And “whether there could have POSSIBLY been a reason why the black did not sit well with them?” Among other things, how about the influence of PFD Wildland Chief Willis’ comments at the fatality site news conference that “no wildland firefighter is satisfied sitting in the black, in a SZ watching the fire progress below them” [while they sit there and do nothing]. Thetre was ABSOLUTELY NO GOOD REASON, NONE, to leave their perfectly good SZ when they did. NONE! Get over it, the black was NOT bad. I allege they rejected the idea of sitting in the black because they BLATANTLY violated most of the Fire Orders and LCES. Moreover, they BLATANTLY failed to recognize,heed, or mitigate many of the Watch Outs. And also for the other above stated and quoted comments.
“Elizabeth on March 21, 2014 at 10:21 am said: ….(Do you remember the time that I was falsely accused of calling Rory Collins a coward? I never said it – it wasn’t me.). That’s right it WASN’T you nor was it me. What I said was that he was acting in a COWARDLY manner speaking of his actions (not an ad hominem attack) when he unexpectadely abandoned the YHF.
This is one of my favorites when you posted “Whereas RTS might be the guy that Eric Marsh fired a few years ago, ….” And just where may I ask did you come up with this gem? When did I allegedly work on the GMHS? And was I fired because I stressed the WFF Rules (10 and 18 and LCES). Was that why I was fired? Or was it because I spoke up (against the GMHS Groupthink) about their alleged recurrent pattern of ‘bad decsions with prior good outcomes’? Which one was it? Or was it both of them or maybe some other reasons I was fired from a Crew I never worked for?
I am very thankful for all that you have done on this forum with all the documents and downloads and such that you have posted. Ongoing thanks for all that effort.
Bob Powers says
Elizabeth–I have at no time called you names. Am I upset with you YES.
I said I believed you were a lawyer for the families to get your attention not to insult you.
You were leading all of us in that direction based on not agreeing with us and continuing to push what I felt were justifying statements to exonerate what GM did. The black was not safe that’s why they moved. They had a lookout for there move thru the brush, Air Attack became there lookout. When they moved it was safe because the fire was not burning in there direction.
When you continue to push those things at the seasoned fire fighters here and they tell you those statements are wrong. You may not know some of them or there names but you know me and I have answered you with all the expert knowledge I have.
Marsh and Granit Mountain took risks known fact. Did they take a risk that day thinking they could make the move even though it was wrong, against all the rules, no LCES, no discussion with OPS or IC. Those things alone tell me yes they made the decision to again take a risk MAYBE HOPEING TO BECOME HEROES. They closed out the idea that it was dangerous and moved out. RTS says Superintendents told him about GM and he also knew what they did. It is one of the few things so far that has made science of what GM did that day. Take it or leave it your choice.
Joy A. Collura says
Logging out—now to head to camp—
I came to the library and always seem to want to quickly do 1 thing—like naturally learning to detox the organs—and people start asking me to stuff over here in town on the fire of course but glad to see everyone is having a fresh start kick ass day online here (smiles) and is here to make sure the firefighting community is shown the RESPECT they deserve as well as so many are pleased the professional firefighters have posted here.
I forgot to say THANK YOU before-
thank you.
we appreciate you.
Elizabeth says
DITTO!! 🙂
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
Elizabeth,
I don’t need anyone to ‘vouch’ for me. I’m just a citizen making comments on a public forum. At least I’ve got the stones to put my thoughts, ideas, and theories, out there in a public forum, where they can, and have been vetted, by anyone who chooses to do so. Over the course of these chapters, I have been occasionally set straight, by those with either better memories, or a better grasp of the facts than me.
With your criticism of those commenting anonymously on here, apparently you don’t sense the magnitude of the irony created, by you, yourself, in allowing (tens, hundreds, thousands, of?) people to contact you directly, and yet, they, themselves are requesting (or demanding) to remain anonymous, a request which you then, honor. Apparently, you have annointed yourself, as the ONLY ONE QUALIFIED to grant someone anonymity.
Lately, you seem to be putting great stock in those ‘secret’ messages you’ve been receiving, even when those writers aren’t willing to allow their own thoughts, ideas, and theories to be publicly vetted (if even anonymously).
Perhaps even more ironic, is that you haven’t grasped the possibility, that the reasons someone posting publicly may want to remain anonymous, ARE AS IMPORTANT as the reasons that those ‘secretly’ contacting you with their real names have, for also wanting to remain anonymous.
I have appreciated your insight and wisdom in the past, and have agreed, especially, with your thoughts in the past regarding commentary needlessly going off on tangets, along with the impropriety of name-calling, but I find your current status as ‘gatekeeper of secrets and secret identities’ totally unproductive in the ‘public’ search for the truth.
If your email buddies are so confident in their facts or theories, let them put them out here for public critique (if even anonymously).
Elizabeth says
TTWRE, I am not sure if I am getting your point, so please correct me if I am going off in the wrong direction, but the people who are contacting me are NOT anonymous to me. Meaning, if somebody named “Fred Hernandez” contacts me from his official USFS e-mail account (which he hasn’t!), and he says to me “Elizabeth, I recall that some arrogant prick of a hotshot super actually tried to start shit against Marsh regarding the Station Fire because they had a beef with Marsh, who was kind of an asshole,” I would first figure out who Fred Hernandez was and whether he seemed kind of credible (e.g. not a jailed inmate who had been inside jail for the past 50 years), then I would figure out if the allegation if true was relevant (to ME, in my search for transparency), then, if it was likely to be relevant, I would figure out how to get more INFORMATION of the sort that I could verify (e.g. could I get first-hand interviews with guys who were ON the Station Fire, could I get documentation, etc.). Does that make sense?
As to your comment that the people who feel most comfortable contacting me directly, let me point out the obvious 🙂 : After the VICIOUS way that Bob, Gary, and now SR again are coming after me (“fool,” “Queen,” “clueless,” etc.), do you BLAME others for not wanting to post here? It SUCKS, it is totally upsetting, and I am pretty close to quitting and telling you all to go figure out your own mess. But I’ll wait to hear from RTS, Gary, and Bob first. 🙂
As to SR’s comment about Joy, go research what Joy has to say about me. She sings my praises, because she KNOWS what I am doing behind the scenes in order to get transparency. To that end, why, exactly, is JOY allowed to cite her anonymous sources whom she keeps begging to come forward, why is RTS allowed to cite his own anonymous source, yet *I* get rafts of criticism when *I* do it? (I ask not because I would want you to criticize RTS or Joy the same way that you attack me, but, rather, because I would like to get the same decency that you give RTS and Joy.)
One final thing, for SR: RTS *told* all of us here on InvestigativeMedia.com that he was a Christian. That was not a secret that I revealed. This goes back to my point, SR, about you failing to read things before you attack….
SR says
“Given that RTS went so far as to e-mail me directly to pronounce that he is a Christian, I expect RTS to be honest and kind in his response. Unless he was lying about being a Christian.” This is Elizabeth speaking in her comment just below. Elizabeth is talking specifically about what RTS said in a private email to her. And, again, to me the idea that RTS disagreeing with Elizabeth somehow means he would be lying about being a Christian is just over the top. It is not attacking anyone to note that what is said in a private email about private beliefs should remain private.
Elizabeth says
Read for comprehension:
RTS announced on this website that he was a Christian. That was POSTED on this website. It wasn’t a SECRET, because RTS had SHARED it on this website.
SR says
Did you comment, in the text I quoted, about what RTS said to you in a private email?
Yes or no?
Did you raise a question in that comment of yours about RTS possibly having lied about being a Christian?
Yes or no?
SR says
It seems Elizabeth can’t answer even those two very simple questions. Her communication style is her choice.
In addition to trying to use a private email to slam RTS, let me also note that Elizabeth has STILL, after days of being asked, not given any indication of what types of sources she IS relying on in making the rather fanciful claim that GM may have not felt safe in the black, and the even more incredible claim that at the time they headed down it would have seemed reasonable, for a reasonable, prudent WFF, to do so via the bushwhack they chose.
As Elizabeth has previously said she has sources only to backtrack, what I’m thinking is that there may not in fact be ANY sources she is relying on for these claims, therefore her refusal to give any answer.
Why does it matter? Astro-turfing some idea that GM had to move from where they were, and that their bushwhack was a reasonable thing to do, would be a horrible precedent for safe practices for current and future crews. And, do no credit to GM and their survivors, either.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
Elizabeth,
I have always tried to be repectful on this site, and I try my best to put forth a reasoned thought, or theory, into the commentary, but even with that, my thoughts on a subject have been corrected several times, which I actually relish in the pursuit of truth.
You state in your comment above that I have ‘attacked you’ for wanting to use an anoymous source. I would ask you to reread my post, for there is NO attack anywhere within.
The instigation for my commentary, was several recent comments (and even going back aways, to your demanding that WTKTT demand the identities and bonifides of all the anonymous posters here) by you, questioning the veracity of anonymous posters on this site.
At the same time you were doing that, you repeatedly put forth facts, theories, or ideas, from your mulitple anonymous sources. You can’t have it BOTH WAYS.
I would never have questioned your anonymous ‘sources’, if you had not FIRST questioned the veracity of anonymous posters here, which includes ME.
You ask, why don’t I criticize Joy or RTS, or anyone else who uses anonymous sources, well it’s because THEY NEVER have criticized the people like me on this site, JUST for simply wanting to remain anonymous.
Oh, and I know that you know the real names of the people who contact you, and I said as much in my comments, but you have also stated publicly that you will honor requests for anonymity from any who ask for it. I DON’T have a problem with that, UNTIL, you come along with, what is apparently a problem with the veracity of me (and others) posting publicly on this site, simply due to the desire to remain anonymous.
For what it’s worth, I think a lot of peoples’ commentary that has upset you recently, is directly related to your repeated use of those ‘unrevealed sources’ giving you ‘unvetted information’ and then you running with it. Also, your repeated references to that ‘information’ which no one else out there has, and gives you ‘additional insight’, that, we poor souls, just don’t have, I’m sure has put a burr in some people’s butts. Perhaps if you backed -off on that stuff a bit, others would cool down a bit as well. If you get some info and you’d like to get it vetted, do it publicly. If the provider wants to push back against the vetting on here, they can certainly do it without revealing their name.
Elizabeth says
Gary, Bob, and RTS:
Some of your most recent comments toward me have been needlessly and personally attacking, not to mention completely hurtful and upsetting (e.g. Gary calling me a “fool,” RTS mocking me, Bob falsely accusing me of working for some unnamed lawyer to fabricate a story). I have repeatedly asked you to please be civil (e.g. not needlessly insulting or attacking) when disagreeing with me, since I am only trying to help and since folks like JD and reporters have made clear that my input *IS* helping, but you have ignored my pleas.
You obviously know how to be civil, since you never once have gone off on Joy, for example, despite Joy sometimes posting things that are just as non-expert as my posts, so I am trying to figure out what it will take to get you three to stop your needlessly insulting comments regarding me. Bob, Gary, and RTS, please tell me:
1. Will your needlessly nasty comments toward me only stop if I shut up and stop posting my views, thoughts, or questions on this website?
2. Will your needlessly insulting comments stop only if I limit my posting to things that agree with you or that strike YOU, personally, as most rational?
Thank you in advance for being honest. Given that RTS went so far as to e-mail me directly to pronounce that he is a Christian, I expect RTS to be honest and kind in his response. Unless he was lying about being a Christian. (Love thy neighbor, RTS, I believe is on the Christian “to-do” list….)
J. Stout says
Elizabeth:
The message has been coming out loud and clear in your recent posts. Res ipsa loquitur. (“The thing speaks for itself.”)
Out of all my favorite things about the WFF’s here, at the top of the list is this: They aren’t here because they hope to make money off this someday.
Elizabeth says
I don’t know what that means, J.Stout. Can you explain?
J. Stout says
You know exactly what it means.
Elizabeth says
I honestly don’t, or I would not have asked.
J. Stout says
Well, then, perhaps you just refuse to fathom it.
Elizabeth says
J.Stout, by definition, I cannot fathom something that I do not understand, but I am WILLING to try to fathom it (if you like that word) if you wanted to try to explain it to me. 🙂
SR says
There’s an disturbing pattern here of Elizabeth saying she feels attacked, and then going into attacks or insinuations herself. RTS may have been lying about being a Christian? WTF?
Unless someone emails you something that is newsworthy, I don’t want here about anyone’s private emails to you, unless they specifically told you it was ok to share the contents of the email. This is a basic standard of decency.
Elizabeth, you are commenting in a public comment forum. When you say things, repeatedly, that are clueless, it is not attacking you for people to note this. When you say that you have “sources” for things, and then backtrack, people are entitled to note the backtrack. When you announce that YOU have determined that at 4:04 it was reasonable for GM to have headed down into the bowl, people are entitled to ask what possible sources you have for such a view. When you repeatedly suggest that GM wouldn’t have been safe in the black and needed to descend for that reason, again with no credible sources of any sort to back up that very strange view, people are entitled to note that what you are saying doesn’t hold water. A college education and a law degree don’t magically insulate you, or anyone else, from people noting when comments are made that are not factual.
As far as your trying to drag Joy into your issues, again, WTF? You’ve created, with your persistent posts advancing whatever you are trying to advance, a number of comments noting that you’re off in a number of things you’re saying. The fact that other people haven’t generated similar responses should be valuable information for you to chew on.
Elizabeth says
Why is RTS allowed to cite anonymous sources, if I am not? Thanks in advance.
SR says
You are saying whimsical, fanciful things. And you are not id’ing any attributes of any of these sources that you sometimes claim to have, only to backtrack in some cases when asked to back what you say up.
For instance, I have asked you several times to indicate where you got the idea that GM’s bushwhack looked reasonable at the time they started, given the alternative of staying in good black. I seriously doubt this is from, say, a hs superintendent somewhere, because it’s not credible. So, who in general terms is claiming that at that time, with the option of sitting tight in good black, the bushwhack looked like a reasonable call? Park ranger, someone sitting in an office somewhere, journalist? Just that kind of info. RTS has given enough info to let us know that his sources are what he says they are, and in a position to speak credibly. You have not.
Elizabeth says
Also, where did I state that GM wouldn’t have been safe in the black? I am trying to figure out what they were THINKING, whether there could have POSSIBLY been a reason why the black did not sit well with them. There is no way to figure that OUT without examining all possible reasons why the black might have been bad, right? Unless we assume that GM *WANTED* to be fried to a crisp, it seems useful to try to think about why they might have rejected the idea of sitting in the black. If I am missing something on that, please tell me.
SR says
That’s what some folk would call a false dichotomy. No one thinks malice was involved in terms of GM wanting to have a serious accident. You have had people explain to you many times that GM didn’t have reason to be concerned about staying put. GM’s own communications reflect that they shared this view, themselves.
GM’s assessment that they were in good black, the assessment of others to the same effect that day, and what we now know with hindsight are all congruent.
Raising fanciful ideas that maybe Marsh looked around and decided all of a sudden that the very large amount of black couldn’t work, but announced that to no one, is misleading and a waste of time.
Maybe Marsh saw a prairie dog up there and thought his crew would be exposed to the plague? It gets ridiculous. Particularly when you refuse to listen to the multiple explanations given by multiple highly qualified and experienced commenters, who give you the same feedback that you then ignore only to make the same misleading suggestion that GM got scared down.
Elizabeth says
Where did I make a misleading suggestion that GM got scared down? I am pretty sure that I never did, but, if you can point me to it, I will certainly try to rectify it.
(Do you remember the time that I was falsely accused of calling Rory Collins a coward? I never said it – it wasn’t me.)
SR says
You are killing me here. You made multiple statements about how GM would have faced superheated gases, catastrophic smoke, and dangerous islands of green if they had stayed in the black. The only problem is, those statements make no sense. And, you have still refused to provide any indication of where on earth you got the idea that these were real issues GM was facing.
Nor have you provided any response to multiple requests to back up your assertion that it was reasonable for GM to make their bushwhack at the time they made it.
I seriously doubt you have any support for either of these propositions, at this point.
Joy A. Collura says
Just for the record on “rite to state anonymity” comment made by Elizabeth today and how people respect all but Elizabeth’s comments…
Both/all librarians in my town and surrounding areas and many locals will share to you that when people have come to me and Elizabeth was not the only displeased person to see that I jotted on those links every person in 2013 so that OSHA, SAIR, firefighters, smokejumpers, homeowners, my family, my friends, the off the grid folks, the communities, the interested folks in this fire could see EVERY piece of information as it unfolded may it be “in person”, email or phone but NEVER did I get a call or email from Willis saying “why are you posting what I write you on that link?” (in fact Willis had educated me a lot in this whole process along with all I hiked with- it is a journey for all of us so we either stick with it and together because it will take the togetherness to get the end results—it will not take one person) YET I have spoke on the phone awhile back and received emails from Elizabeth her concerns and requests to please do not let people know we email/the contents due to her profession/respect thing and I replied if one is not willing to let me place publicly on that link what is being shown to us then don’t communicate to us because I do not need personally “shhh, whispers, off the record, please due to my profession respect me and do not write about what we talk about on a public forum” and that was NOT said to be taken offensively by me but where I stand in this journey of the people INVESTIGATING it but I for sure have EMPATHY for the disabled/the elders/the community that was indeed affected by that weekend and I can keep their showing me photos and videos as thank you I saw it but NOW give it to the PUBLIC so this fire can be properly assessed…PLUS alot of people are not yet ready to talk about that weekend publicly. They are NOT firefighters and all I want out of this for ME is that 19 men who do not have a voice knew there was folks out here that will be their voice for them and EXHAUST all areas to find the purity in this all. I have much in the body severely in danger and I am doing my hikes and medical massages and eating the right way to knock the crap out of it but I am not at any time going to spend 2014 when I cut off my mifi to wonder who I have to hold a secret or information when my online time is so limited plus I am all for GOOD ENERGY from the fire not the horse shit unfolding-
We need to make sure the Wildland and Firefighting community are shown the respect they deserve and that programs are enhanced by bringing out the purity of it vs. the modern world of claims & suits. We need to show these men who died, the other fallen ones and the current community as well as the future generation this is just a stepping stone to a better tomorrow not the crap I skimmed today-
I can tell you the people are not anonymous in a sense- ANYONE can go to Yarnell and speak to the SAME people that came to me and ask them their accounts. Just go SPEND YOUR TIME AND YOUR ENERGY FREELY to these people—that community.
What they show me I tell you here as I tell them DOES NOT HOLD MUCH GROUND in my book UNTIL they SHOW THE PUBLIC yet again though since the fire you see EVERY step of the way of communication and in doing that I hope it cuts out the people who want to write, talk or whatever to me of their accounts . I want the Yarnell community to know HOW IMPORTANT their footage is to you all. That is it. I have NO shadiness or anonymity holding here. Sonny told me someone emailed me here from the comment wall and I never received it. Yet I will read any email but if its based on the crap I read today you can bet I am not going to reply privately.
Now, I will not be redundant but I wanted to clarify my anonymity on a homeowner is because shit, I cannot control who is coming my way. Have you seen my link as you state you do- then you know I have not seeked out anyone but in this forumn and Bill Gabbert’s I mentined Y O U because I know a select few do read this comment wall and I do feel it is IMPORTANT to explain the fire, explain the vehicles and aircrafts, explain what is a hotshot vs a smokejumper and firefighter and Sonny seems to love Gary’s view but this is what HERE is about—a place for all of us to do our best for the 19. Someone recently received something from us and said you should market it. All the people we sent that item to was a deep respect and if you got one or 2 then you KNOW we deeply respected what you are and have done for this fire and for all your assistance.
I said enough. I like EVERYONE here. Even the ones who challenge our accounts, even the ones that accept they have their views professionally and personally that does not match mine. I love everyone to be FREE thinkers and to live and let live—
have a kick ass day you all.
Elizabeth says
Thank you, Joy, for the support. That means a lot, to have you publicly support me. I appreciate it. You have always been supportive of me, and it is good to know that I was one of the special ones to whom you sent things. Keep it “pure”….
And I am glad to see that I am not the only one who thinks some of this is just horse shit that distracts from the bigger goals.
Anyone can e-mail Gary Cordes, or Darrell Willis, or whomever they want and ASK the questions if they do not believe me.
Joy A Collura says
Man, I love how well and energetic I feel when my medical massager tries to keep me going— Divine. It’s one of those thing you want for others to experience yet you want her to yourself but if you google Dee Sickles from Flagstaff, Arizona. I am sure you will be glad you did. I only had 2.5 hours sleep and I will get that sleep but I am stoked today—I know when my medical massager peaked over my shoulder and saw me skimming the comments here and she said are you reading about “fire guy” Gary Cordes there? and I said it is a collaboration of comments I am skimming about and she said I have known Gary for 1/2 a decade and whoever is writing negative about him have him pegged wrong. She asked why are people writing such about a fine human like him? I said I did not know I was peaking at other areas not on Gary yet she seem to think to detail him so if anyone wants to know about him; email or call her. I am not on email area to give you contact info. but google her name. Now, that lady worked her butt off to try and assist gtting my bodyworkable so I will see hr aain real soon but after 3:33am she had to say enough and she still had a few areas like my left hand and sorts but I had so much detailed hour after hour needed work done and I even did my in-between homework/exercise and I was still a mess.
Hey, I am all for anonymity—someone thinks I am not but all I am saying is in a nice world it would be great if we all had the freedom and no fear to just be real, raw & genuine with our names tied to our voice and actions yet “welcome to the modern world”…
After seeing the photos/videos I have and my word is solid that I won’t name drop yet for my peace of mind it had been so important for me to encourage all to share their accounts but people have to share in their time and ways and so I have now realized I am not going to keep saying Y O U….
I know, shew. It did give us information in doing it yet now its time to educate the folks that no matter how simple they think their photos were between 1-7pm on June 30th, 2013—just share with someone who is seeking the purity if this tragedy and leave it there as simple as that.
Now for Gary Olsen who Tex (Sonny) seems to always light up or “right on” when he writes—I get the final trgedy that Steed and Marsh laid amongst the other men in the deployment area and people say the leader “f’d up” but until we are no longer blinded by tight ties of narratives and some willing and unwilling deceptions and we see the entire 12-9pm the purity of the ground to aerial photos and videos and hear many accounts of that weekend then and only then will I stand on he wagon with you and Sonny on some areas—Until we see how the leaders went from point a to b and the mystery will be revealed and so in the end all this past few days of comments made on how all of us are doing our healing to this tragedy—
THIS IS A NEW DAY!
fresh start.
Let’s give EVERYONE the respect and freedom to do this without all this whatever it is I am reading WE all are in this together. WE are all the voice these 19 men no longer have—
Keep the faith!
And have a real swell day with loads of smiles.
signing out-
walking back to camp now-
Elizabeth says
Right back atcha, Joy. Just so you know, I have NOTHING bad to say about Gary Cordes. (The only thing I tried to say was that it was Cordes who was needing help such that Musser reached out to DivsA to get some “resources” (which, at that time, only really included GM, because Blue Ridge was ALREADY working at the direction of Cordes, such that they were already a “resource” that Cordes had at his disposal and already engaged in the way he had directed). Please don’t anyone read into that. If I am being unclear, ask me….)
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
Do you like drama, read a lot of fiction, and watch a lot of movies? It sure seems like it to me based on your postings lately, especially today.
Here’s one of my favorites, actually posted TWICE by you in the very same day. Just amazing. “If I buy into RTS’s theory, then I have to buy into the fact that RTS and his friends deliberately did NOTHING about something that they recognized as a life-threatening problem (“we could see this coming” or something like that is what RTS says his friends said).”
“The fact that men in RTS’s position would stand by without sending an E-MAIL, anonymous note, or anything to Prescott Human Resources, to ADOSH, or to ANYONE (which would then lead to a paper trail that I could sniff out) is something I refuse to fathom.
Period.”
“Deliberately did NOTHING” ? Are you kidding me? “The fact that men in RTS’s position would stand by …” Nope, not buying the guilt trip attempt here, twice even. So then, in typical lawyer fashion, Marsh was a ‘VICTIM’ of his peers, those that tried for years to fix matters to no avail? So, then it’s OUR fault that Marsh was responsible for killing his Crew. No, I don’t think so. He did it all alone. He wouldn’t listen to his peers, his friends, experienced WFF supervisors that helped to train his men. Men that knew or should have known better. Marsh did it all by himself because he felt his way was the right way, in spite of years and years of chastining and advice and counsel and Lessons Learned and tried-and-trued WFF Rules.
To refresh what appears to be a selective memory, it all statrted with this RTS post regarding Bob Powers’ post about a ‘walk-thru’ of the YHF fatality site. RTS posted “Superintendents made comments such as this: ‘This was the final, fatal link in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes. We saw this coming for years.” common knowledge that Eric Marsh made well known “prior bad decisions with good outcomes” we all knew it was going to happen.”
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
And one more gem “Whereas RTS might be the guy that Eric Marsh fired a few years ago,” Yup, that’s me alright, you got me, you found me out. Good job. ……. Are you kidding me?
Gary Olson says
Elizabeth, I don’t have a problem with what Mike said. In fact, if you go back a little further you will see I asked a very similar rhetorical question. My question was rhetorical because I know something neither Mike nor WTKTT knows, in spite of their common sense and logic. And it is something I already said, but I guess you missed it, so I will say it again.
FYI WTKTT – your example of the way construction crews worked was informative (although you are ruining my narrative that you work in a dimly lit room for a federal alphabet soup agency), but it doesn’t apply to the quasi-military world of wildland firefighters. I also enjoyed reading the entertaining and colorful article by the British Telegraph writer, thanks for the link. Entertaining and colorful, but just like the Outdoor article several months ago…devoid of any real facts or useful information.
And FYI to everyone else out there in cyber space, I really like reading that hotshots are the equivalent of Navy SEALS or Special Forces, because it makes me feel powerful about what I used to be, but it’s not true. Hotshots are the equivalent of the Marines, if there is even such a thing as an equivalent at all. After all…everyone expects some Marines to die in a pitched battle, but no one expects some hotshots to die on a wildfire, no matter how big or bad it is.
Hotshots are grunts and ground pounders (and damn proud of it), the best of the best…but that’s it. As I have written in the past, if anyone is the equivalent of SEALS and Special Forces to the fire service in America, it’s the smokejumpers. Although I would rather be FUCKED by a smokejumper (male) than be one (just kidding, it’s that hotshot/smokejumper rivalry thing again, very healthy) because there are very few of them, they generally have more experience and training and they generally go out on small, select, specialized assignments, whereas the hotshots go fight the BIG ones.
Back on point. In the world of the Granite Mountain Hotshots in particular, there was only ONE person (in the case of the U.S Forest Service, there are several them, but not in the case of the Prescott Fire Department) who could have made a correction in Eric Marsh’s behavior and tactics.
That was Darrell Willis. That is because there was nobody above Darrell Willis except for Chief Fraijo…and well, as I have said in the past, Chief Fraijo was probably a really squared away structural FIREMAN who was a good manager, but he was completely CLUELESS about wildland firefighters and hotshots in particular, and he should never have had wildland firefighters under his command. Period.
Sidebar WTKTT – I think Darrell Willis was the CHIEF of the Prescott Fire Department when the Granite Mountain Hotshots were created.
In the case of the U.S. Forest Service, there is NOT ONLY the District Fire Management Officer (or District AFMO) who supervises the hotshot crew boss, but there is the Forest Fire Staff Officer for their home forest, (who is a Fire God) who carefully reviews each and every fire performance record for the crew in general and the crew boss in particular, but there is the Regional Fire Operations Center Coordinator, (the Chief Fire Gods Chief Assistant – SWCC in the case of Arizona and New Mexico) and the Regional Fire Staff Officer (The Chief Fire God).
AND that is before you get to the National Interagency Fire Coordination Center, and all of the other fire gods at the national level. Who were so far up in the Ivory Tower that I don’t even know what their titles were…Supreme Fire Gods I guess.
That is a far cry from the Mayor of Prescott…the CITY MANAGER, or the City Council, clueless…clueless…and even more clueless.
I’m sure it’s the same for NPS, BLM or BIA (other federal) hotshot crews as it is with the USFS, but I can only speak about U.S. Forest Service hotshot crews.
A U.S. Forest Service hotshot crew boss would not survive being sent home with a strongly worded note from fire supervisors – at least a second time. Although keep in mind (if you search back far enough through enough of my ramblings, and in spite of what WFF thinks, there is a point to all of my stories if you read far enough) that I survived being sent home with my crew from the Scott Fire with a sternly worded note from the Incident Commander for insubordination on a specially chartered jet, chartered just to fly us home to Santa Fe, New Mexico from Tucson, Arizona. Expensive. And there was one less hotshot crew on the line the next morning. Bad.
But…being sent home from a fire with a bad performance rating or a note…is the least of a U.S Forest Service hotshot crew bosses worry when it comes to keeping his or her job. As I have said in the past…the details of everything I did on a fire made it home before I did…all of these fire managers, well…they all know one another, and they all go way back…and they all they love to bullshit with each other about everything that happens on every fire. There are no secrets. At least from each other, from the general public…yes, it’s almost all a secret.
BUT…I kept my job only after there was an exhaustive investigation by those fire gods I previously named, interviewing every supervisor and manager who was anywhere near me or the crew, or even close to the incident in question, and they concluded the Scott Fire Boss (Incident Commander) was wrong. But my point is this, had I not been right, and the Incident Commander not been wrong…I would have been immediately removed as a hotshot crew boss, and I would have found myself hosing out outhouses even sooner than I otherwise did due to accumulated smoke inhalation damage to my lungs and larynx.
There were no turn-down protocols in my day, just a “do it now…like I said or else”, IF…that was the personality of the fire manager in question. Which fortunately, was very rare. I only saw it one time (on the Scott Fire) during my ten years as a hotshot, seven years as hotshot crew boss.
That is one of the reasons why the Granite Mountain Hotshots were a blueprint for disaster, just as John Dougherty reported in his very first article.
Oh…and one more thing, just in case anybody hasn’t picked up on this. When it comes to being a hotshot or a hotshot crew boss, there isn’t anyone in the country who can tell me anything (about most other fire stuff yes, I only know about being a hotshot). As I told Bob Powers in the past, there are those who did it longer, but nobody in the country did it better. And I did it all, and saw it all…at least once. And I have the hotshot memorabilia (Happy Jack Hotshots, you know, the crew I ran starting at age 23, and the Santa Fe Hotshots, you know, the crew I FOUNDED) to prove it. Hubris…yes, I have that too.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Gary Olson on March 20, 2014 at 9:22 pm said:
>> Gary Olson said…
>> FYI WTKTT – your example of the way construction crews
>> worked was informative (although you are ruining my
>> narrative that you work in a dimly lit room for a federal
>> alphabet soup agency), but it doesn’t apply to the
>> quasi-military world of wildland firefighters.
You’re right. It really doesn’t. When my crew boss was once
insisting I climb a 4 story scaffold and haul up some windows
without all the diagonal bracing in place yet… all I said was…
“Fuck you”.
When he then said “You’re fired…” I said…
“I don’t think so, asshole”… and I gestured over toward the
contractor’s trailer, in case he wanted to go over there and
talk about what just happened.
That fixed that problem right then and there.
No need for an ‘alternative suggestion’, and certainly no
memos needed.
So yea… not the same… but I believe the only point I was
*trying* to make is that if there is NOT an EASY way for WFF
employees to officially ‘refuse to work’ with people that are
known to be a risk to themselves and others… there SHOULD
be ( without having to lose a career that you love ).
>> Gary also wrote…
>> I also enjoyed reading the entertaining and colorful article by
>> the British Telegraph writer, thanks for the link. Entertaining
>> and colorful, but just like the Outdoor article several months
>> ago…devoid of any real facts or useful information.
Agreed. It was just ‘fluff’… but I DO think the quotes from the
original Prescott Wildland Division Chief ( Duane Steinbrink )
about “what made this crew different” and his verification that
from day one that the “groupthink” of that outfit was “we have to
be better and out-perform everyone else we work with” was
totally relevant… especially given RTS’s recent comments
and findings.
I still believe it all ties together into what happened on
June 30, 2013, and anyone who doesn’t think so is just
kidding themselves, at this point.
You also make it crystal clear that no matter what ‘complaints’
may or may not have been registered about this group in the
months/years preceding the Yarnell incident ( if any )… this
GM group was ‘outside the norm’ and ‘insulated’ from the
‘normal (federal) channels’.
You are absolutely right about ‘the buck stopping’ in
an ‘abnormal’ place for THIS (one) crew.
Even if the emails were flooding into Chief Fraijo’s and Darrell
Willis’ mailbox(es)… if they didn’t give a shit… then nothing
happened.
Lessons to be learned?
You damn betcha.
Gary Olson says
I absolutely and strongly agree with everything you just said in your post…you get it.
Gary Olson says
Although I guess my little joke in my post about hotshot and smokejumpers rivalry was homophobic. I apologize for that joke. See…ex hotshots can be taught…even burned-out ones.
Gary Olson says
Let me try one more time, there is no “guess” about it. Please accept my apology for my crude and completely inappropriate attempt at humor in my comment above regarding hotshot and smokejumper rivalry. WFF is right, I have said to much and I wish I had the willpower to quit commenting on this blog or thread or whatever it is. The good news is that all of us now have a forum to express our opinions. The bad news is that all of us now have a forum to express our opinions.
Elizabeth says
Bob, I have no idea why you are lashing out at me, but you seem to have missed both *my* post and MIke’s prior post. I will re-post mine for you, in response to your inexplicable vitriol toward me:
Bob, I have avoided saying this, but it seems like you are going to press the point, so here we go…. I am partially echoing what Mike has already said (but everyone ignored), when I make the obvious and grave point as follows:
If I buy into RTS’s theory, then I have to buy into the fact that RTS and his friends deliberately did NOTHING about something that they recognized as a life-threatening problem (“we could see this coming” or something like that is what RTS says his friends said).
The fact that men in RTS’s position would stand by without sending an E-MAIL, anonymous note, or anything to Prescott Human Resources, to ADOSH, or to ANYONE (which would then lead to a paper trail that I could sniff out) is something I refuse to fathom.
Period.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Elizabeth post on March 20, 2014 at 6:34 pm
Elizabeth… you seem to have answered your own first
sentence query with your own last sentence.
The reason people are getting upset with you is that there
are, apparently, all kinds of things you ‘refuse to fathom’.
That’s ok, counselor.
You have decided to play your own game and I, for one,
still wish you luck.
The truth will be the truth… no matter where it comes from.
Bob Powers says
Firs Elizabeth You have said earlier that you were relying on 3 highly qualified people including me and a couple of others on the Email questions you have mailed out so what is it thousands or 6 or 10???
All of those that I listed I can state are WFF based on there statements, you might not know there real names but I know the quality of there information.
RTS is a quality Fire Fighter Worked on Hot Shot Crews Most of his Life from his first job on my crew in 1973 so 40 plus years and he never worked for Marsh but was on fires that marsh was on and knew Marsh as he worked up to and took over GM. So he knows Marsh and about Marsh end of statement.
I have com to the conclusion that you are working for one of the Lawyers for the families and trying to prove that the State and the Overhead caused the death of Granit Mountain 19. You have been doing this and force feeding us with all of these assumptions that Marsh and Granit Mountain did every thing right and if you get enough of us to agree then it is part of your case good luck with that. As you can tell by now you do not need to send me any more Email Questions.
When you do not want to listen to the facts there is not much any of us can say.
In closing Thank God you are not a fire fighter.
J. Stout says
Am glad you spoke up about this, Mr. Powers. Because she is playing her own game here. And it’s the WFF’s who are getting played.
Sonny says
the experienced firefighter Bob Powers correctly stated those men would have done the right thing staying in the burned out zone they were in.
In fact, one of Marsh’s communications stated “we are safe in the black, can you get the BR…”
we just seek the missing links- the mystery remains as to why he changed his mind.
Bob Powers says
And we are in search of that mystery as we have been. A combination of several things were at work in this tragedy.
Elizabeth says
Sonny, you are claiming that one of Marsh’s communications was “can you get the BR…”
What does that claim mean? What does “can you get the BR” mean, Sonny?
Thank you!
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Elizabeth…
Fer cryin’ out loud… please check your own
(supposedly) voluminous data.
Sonny is (obviously) referring to the ADOSH report.
Page 18 of ADOSH report…
Shortly thereafter ( circa 1550 ), Operations Section
Chief 2 Musser radioed GMIHC and asked if they could
spare resources to assist in Yarnell. Either Marsh or
GMIHC Captain Steed responded that they were
committed to the black and that Musser should contact
BRIHC working in the valley (during his interview Musser
stated that he wasn’t sure who he was talking with).
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
**
** GARY CORDES IS THE ONE WHO PERSONALLY
** REQUESTED THAT GRANITE MOUNTAIN LEAVE
** THE ‘SAFE BLACK’ ON JUNE 30, 2013
>> Elizabeth on March 20, 2014 at 1:01 pm said:
>>
>> Just thinking out loud, here, if you are suggesting that they should have
>> gone all the way to Congress, well, it is obvious to me why going to
>> Congress was not appealing, because it would mean they were effectively
>> out of the workday. Meaning, they could have done NOTHING to help Gary
>> Cordes – who had ASKED for their help – and the communities if they had
>> gone over the ridge.
>>
>> WTKTT then asked…
>>
>> Elizabeth… you just said…
>>
>> “they (GM) could have done NOTHING to help Gary Cordes –
>> who had ASKED for their help.”
>>
>> What evidence exists for you to keep making such a statement
>> that it was Gary Cordes himself who ‘asked’ GM to leave the safe black?
>>
>> I want YOU to provide some indication that you are basing your statement
>> about Cordes on evidence… and not speculation.
>>
>> Can you do that for me (us)?
>>
>> It’s important.
>>
>> Elizabeth on March 20, 2014 at 4:07 pm said:
>>
>> If all you wanted was a “yes” or a “no,” the answer
>> is “of COURSE” (e.g. “yes”) I have a source. I actually have THREE.
Elizabeth…
Thank you… and ignore my response to Bob Powers below which was
written BEFORE I saw this statement from you.
So to be CLEAR…
( You only have to answer again if the answer is NO )…
You DO have THREE sources of real evidence that establish, without
a shadow of a doubt, that SPGS1 Gary Cordes, who just received the
Arizona Wildfire Association’s Firefighter of the Year award for his ‘heroic’
actions on the Yarnell hill fire…
…is, in fact, the one who personally asked Granite Mountain to leave
the ‘safe black’ that afternoon and embark on the journey that led
to their deaths.
The obvious NEXT questions ( which you said I was free to ask ) are…
1) WHEN did this request take place?
2) Did Cordes’ request come BEFORE or AFTER similar request from Musser?
2) HOW did the request take place? Direct radio call from Cordes to Marsh?
3) WHAT did Marsh and/or Steed then say to Cordes?
Did Marsh and/or Steed accept Cordes’ request right away instead of telling
him they were ‘committed to the black’ as they did when Musser made a similar
request in the same timeframe?
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
>> Elizabeth on March 20, 2014 at 4:56 pm said:
>>
>> WTKTT, as I explained elsewhere, Cordes and Musser were
>> talking, Cordes indicated that he needed “resources” to
>> “bump” to his area in light of the fire now moving due east
>> toward his area (as opposed to moving NORTH toward the
>> territory that Willis was working on), apparently Cordes’s radio
>> was not transmitting well, so Musser reached out to DivsA
>> on Cordes’s behalf.
Are you f**king kidding me?
NOW you are BACKING OFF your carte-blanche statement
that it was Gary Cordes who personally requested their help?
For crying out loud…. what is the matter with you?
After the exchange we just went through… where I made
every attempt to carefully get you to VERIFY this DIRECT
statement of YOURS…
>> Elizabeth said…
>> “they (GM) could have done NOTHING to help Gary Cordes –
>> who had ASKED for their help.”
…and you did that… saying you have THREE SOURCES…
…NOW you are ‘backtracking’ and saying it’s really just
something you THINK happened?
What is WRONG with you?
I will make one more attempt to clear up this VERY
important point ( and apologies to any family members
who might be reading this )…
Do you have DIRECT, unequivocal evidence that Gary
Cordes either asked Granite Mountain directly to leave
the safe black… or that he directly asked OPS2 Paul
Musser to make that request on his behalf?
Please be careful what you say next.
Elizabeth says
WTKTT: I have repeatedly communicated in my prior posts that it was made clear to DivsA that Cordes was looking for help.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
…and we still have no idea what you are really
basing your public statements on.
That’s ok, counselor.
You are playing your own game here and obviously
no one is able to tell you anything.
Good luck with whatever it is you are doing.
Bob Powers says
First let me say there are several highly qualified wild land fire fighters on the discussion as well as myself none have questioned what I have had to say science this discussion but many non fire people here have occasionally questioned myself and others, I can’t speak for the others.
You have all read my forest service carrier and the jobs I was in.
So the following has to do with my actual fire experience which I rely on heavily when responding to question’s or remarks that don’t fit my knowledge of wild land fire.
I fought Fire for 33 years. I also wrote burn plans and managed controlled burns of all types.
I fought fires in every State in the west plus Minnesota and Florida.
in 33 years I was on close to 1000 fires from Fire Fighter to type 2 IC and Air Attack On every kind of fire you can think of. Grass to Timber from 1 tree to 400,000 ac. I understand Wild Land Fire Fighting Safety In those 33 years I can not count the number of people I trained in Safety and different facets of fire fighting.
I also planed and executed fall and spring burn plans for fuel reduction. On 3 different Forests. In Timber clear cuts to brush reduction Pinion Juniper to sage brush.
Those are my collage of wild land fire fighting credentials. I know others here like RTS, SR, Gary, Eric, TTARE, Have a lot if not more than me in background I know by the way they speak. So when we all agree with something or someone it is coming from really reliable people with a heavy background in FIRE. What we are saying come from years and years of experience. WE are not fighting amongst our self’s so we must be stating the facts.
If you do not want to agree with our answers then there’s not much else we can tell you. I think that WTKTT has long science came to that conclusion and he has done a lot of studying and supportive input to our statements.
Elizabeth says
“WE are not fighting amongst our self’s so we must be stating the facts.”
Bob, with all due respect, you are only FIVE guys, and there are hundreds or thousands of emergency or wildfire professionals who are reading this website and NOT agreeing with you.
The fact that five guys, four of whom are totally anonymous, agree on something does not mean that that “something” is fact, at least according to any investigation standards with which I am familiar. The fact that not more guys are agreeing with you here is telling to me.
Do you want the people who disagree with you to just shut up and go away? Or what would you like us to do?
Gary Olson says
We may only be “five” guys or whatever the number actually is, but we are the current or ex fire guys participating in this discussion. I can’t be responsible for what “other” current or ex fire guys may be emailing you on the side, but if they are not putting it here, whatever they have to say doesn’t mean anything.
At least WFF put his objections down in writing on this thread. I do have to respect that, so I should not have said he is NOBODY, I should have saved that title for whoever is carrying on sidebar discussions with you.
Elizabeth says
The people who contact me have all used their REAL names, Gary, which means that I can vet them.
Whereas RTS might be the guy that Eric Marsh fired a few years ago, and SR might be the person who had to leave GM involuntarily due to falling off the wagon.
🙂
Gary Olson says
I have told you this once already…but I will tell you again. Bob Powers’ fire credentials are above reproach…period. And he has vouched for RTS many times. RTS is still close to the ground…the hotshot crew bosses who walked through of the Yarnell Hill Fire.
That is why I have to believe RTS, and had to finally accept the narrative that I have been fighting. Fighting more than you have I might add, while I tried to put myself in Eric Marsh’s position on the Yarnell Hill Fire, but I finally had to let it go.
Please keep in mind, I was hearing Eric Marsh was a top-notch hotshot crew boss from Darrell Willis and others at his level, those are the few people I know now in fire. Primarily men that used to be hotshot crew bosses who now run the organizations. I don’t know anybody even close to the ground anymore.
Elizabeth says
Gary, you keep missing my point: Maybe I *will* ultimately rule out every other rational possibility, or maybe I will stumble on a big pile of written statements (or do my own interviews) of the anonymous guys RTS is quoting. But, until then, I have to keep investigating. My goal is closure and every possible lesson learned. That means I keep going until I am done. I have made clear that maybe RTS is 100% correct, but I am not willing to put my name to that position without first continuing my investigation, because the non-anonymous data that I have to date is not consistent with RTS’s position. That does not mean that he is WRONG – that means that I keep looking until I can’t.
I still have no idea why you are attacking me, Gary. What did I do to you, personally?
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
I would expect any of us to question each other when
assertions are made… and we all have, from time to time.
No one is ‘clean’ in this (public) discussion. We have ALL
( from time to time ) thought we saw things in the evidence
that supported a ‘theory’ or two…
…but Mr. Powers… I assure you… if it was even YOU, at this
point, who was stating that SPGS1 Gary Cordes was the
one who personally requested GM to leave the safe black
that day…
…I would be asking YOU to back that up.
There are a LOT of things about this incident that amount to
just ‘details’ and will be argued about for years to come…
…but for someone to come on here stating that they know
exactly WHO made the ACTUAL request for GM to leave
the safe black… but not give any indication if there is even
any evidence to support such a ‘theory’… that is something
else altogether.
A statement like that goes to the fundamental reasons for
the tragedy itself… and is not to be ‘taken’ or ‘accepted’ lightly.
All I want is for Elizabeth to say whether she has any evidence
to back up a statement like that… or whether she is speculating.
That’s all.
Elizabeth says
I did below, WTKTT.
I have no fewer than THREE pieces of evidence.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Yes… I saw that just AFTER I wrote the response
to Mr. Powers above… so please IGNORE my
entire comment above.
I DO appreciate your response… and
( as with RTS’s postings ) I have no reason
to doubt you at this time.
So thanks again… and please read the new
top-level posting above where I ask the obvious
*next* questions that you said I was free to ask.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Elizabeth… I take it back.
I do NOT appreciate your response ( since
minutes later we found out you ARE still
just speculating about a whole lot of things ).
I also DO ‘now have reason to doubt you’.
Only took a few minutes.
If you want us to believe what you are
alleging about this whole “It was made
clear to DivsA that Cordes needed his
help” carte-blanche statement…
…then publish the evidence that allows you
to make such a specific statement as if
it was a FACT and let people make up
their own minds about it.
Thanks in advance.
Elizabeth says
Again, why aren’t you making RTS publish his evidence? (FYI, my evidence is partially already out, and more should be coming out in the next few days, hopefully. But the bigger point is: why are you hounding ME and not RTS?)
Gary Olson says
No Bob…I do not have more experience than you, not by a long shot, I was a hotshot for 10 years…that’s it, and that is all. I was a pencil pusher (other than my short stint hosing out outhouses) as a dispatcher making guesses about what a fire might be doing based on what color the smoke was and whether it was laying over or not until a ground commander got on scene…and if that ground commander was a GS-3 first year engine crew member…they were in charge and called the shots. Period. If you say it…that is how it is. Period. I also defer to RTS.
Gary Olson says
I am once again completely baffled by another concept. Is someone really attempting to suggest that somehow the Granite Mountain Hotshots had to leave the safe area they were in, much less had to walk in front of a fire which had reversed direction, and although it may have been primarily moving southeast, that still means it was moving south.
And yes, the GMHS knew the fire had reversed direction, just like the meteorologists said it would, exactly when they said it was going to do it. And burn straight down that big valley full of fuel that was designed to channel the wind just like the banks of a river channel the water – in the direction the GMHS choose to walk? This is just as confusing to me as the suggestion that the GMHS or any firefighter would attempt to move to an objective under the “cover” of circling slurry bombers like they were C-130 gunships.
I am ready for current wildland firefighter out there to jump in and correct me, but except in southern California, and because of the Santa Ana winds, which only occur in southern California, and only at certain times of the year, under specific meteorological conditions that everyone who lives in southern California understands, fires do not burn rapidly burn downhill during the day anywhere that I have ever heard or experienced (excluding some specific area, under specific conditions as a one off).
We taught in any basic intro to firefighter class (S-130?) that because the sun heats the earth during the day, the warmer air flows up the mountains, and therefore fires generally burn uphill during the day. And as the earth cools off at night, the air flows down the mountains, and therefore fires generally “back” down the slope during the night. I used to say a fire is like a grizzly bear (shorter legs in front), it will run after you much faster uphill than it will downhill during the day, so you should always move downhill away from the fire if you can. Pretty simple stuff.
As you are going to a fire, if the column of smoke is going straight up vertically and is white, you know can get away with a lot more (although you should still follow all of the rules just like Bob and RTS say) than if it is black and “laying over” horizontally. So…if smoke is black, and the smoke column is laying over while if points in your direction, you should be CAREFUL and get the hell out of there, especially by not moving in that direction. That is what Sonny instinctively knew even though he has never attended an S-130 class.
And if the fire has turned into a firestorm with a really big impressive pyroclastic cloud as Sitta said in an earlier comment, nobody should be thinking about doing anything in relationship to fighting that fire, (or anything else) everyone should be doing nothing but getting as far away from it as they reasonably can, because everything is about to get real western.
Everyone should have been pulled off the fire line…right then…if not sooner. And if no overhead ordered them to pull back, any crew boss with any common sense would have known that and done it anyway, just as Sonny did. Not complicated stuff.
And after a fire tops out on top of the ridge, it may back down the next slope, but it will back down very slowly because it is now burning against the uphill wind from the other side, rather than with the wind. The only danger will be if the wind throw sparks high enough up so that the fire spotted down below the next slope, and the spot fires are now burning back up that hill with the wind.
So…maybe you don’t want to commit to far going down the hill towards Congress, but just wait a few minutes and then walk back over the ridge towards Yarnell again because now that area is black (a little smoky and hot…but safe, unless there was a dirty burn that left the overstory, so now there could be a reburn, but that is getting ahead of our basic concept here and that is not what happened at Yarnell, that fire wasn’t leaving much behind…overstory, understory or otherwise).
I don’t think anyone should be suggesting that just because the GMHS walked over the ridge while waiting for the fire to top out, the GMHS had to keep walking to Congress and take themselves completely out of the fight. That is ridiculous.
I said a long time ago that the Granite Mountain Hotshots could have in simply stayed where they were at as they were “ordered” to do, and I do think it was an ORDER, or they could have literally walked in any direction except the one they chose to, and they would have been fine. They could have waited a few more minutes, and then simply walked to the backside of Yarnell through all of the new black the fire just created.
No offense to the good citizens of Yarnell, but I would have been very happy to sit on that ridge and watch Mother’s Nature’s Grand Show, no matter how LITTLE taxpayers were paying my crew, and how few benefits they were giving my crew because the taxpayers always want everything as cheap as they can get them, until their little Wildland Urban Interface slice of heaven on a bun is getting burned over (or some other problem they themselves, or their loved ones are experiencing), and then they want everything, and more, done by everybody ASAP. Too late.
Although I do have some sympathy for those residents of Yarnell who were apparently waiting for the fire overhead (who had their heads up their asses) to tell them to start evacuating the area even though the pyroclastic cloud was already looming over their overgrown yards while it was raining sparks down on their unmitigated fire-stupid (as opposed to being fire wise) indefensible structures.
Whoops…there I go again, sounding as bitter as my new friend and loyal opposition WFF has accused me of being.
Elizabeth…I know you and I have a difference of opinion about the status of this investigation, but I think you are using some high powered (and high dollar) talent to look into possibilities that are non-starters. I don’t know who is telling you otherwise (RTS is thinking about getting as caustic as me with his Milk Toast Hotshots comment, but I thought it was funny), but they are telling you completely wrong ideas to investigate or even consider.
Is someone out there seriously trying to make a case that the Granite Mountain Hotshots HAD to do what they did, and that was their only REASONABLE alternative? If that is the case, this thread has really outlived its usefulness, and it’s very reason to exist (now I am starting to sound like our old and banned friend xx-fullsail-xx), maybe I do need to get a life.
Elizabeth says
You don’t rule out every other option before speaking ill of the dead? I do.
Gary Olson says
Elizabeth…there is a difference between ruling out other options that have already been ruled out by consensus of the wildland firefighters who have been participating in this discussion months ago, before speaking ill of the dead, and continuing to beat a horse that is already dead, no matter how good it feels. Maybe you should send me your credentials after all.
We can’t (or at least I can’t) rule out every possible angle every nut case in this world can come up with and decide to write about…where would that end. Trying to determine whether or not the Granite Mountain Hotshots died because aliens exercised mind control over Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed and ordered to walk in front of that inferno?
I am going to give you the bottom line here…that has always been the bottom line even when I was trying to put myself in Eric Marsh’s position as best I could, and defend his memory based on what I had “heard” about him.
Eric Marsh ****** up and killed himself and his crew. Period. That is an indisputable fact because Eric Marsh was in charge and his crew is DEAD. A hotshot crew boss has great authority over his crew, complete authority. BUT he or she also have complete RESPONSIBILITY for their crew, and if their crew ends up dead (barring going down in a hard landing in a helicopter for example), they ***** up. Period. No exceptions…no excuses. It is what hotshot crew bosses sign up for when they accept the position. Deal with it.
Elizabeth says
So, Gary, you want to just leave it at “GM Fucked Up”? Ok. Good for you. Have fun on the “how to decorate your bathroom” website or whatever website you decide to go to next since the Yarnell Hill Fire discussion is over in your eyes.
I am surprised, though, Gary, that you do not care what exactly led the guys to march through that green field, other than them “fucking up.” I guess you are concluding that the actual reason does not matter because no other crew would ever do such a thing.
Also, Gary, just so that we are clear, the fact that a handful of anonymous guys have been debating things in various comment threads on the internet does not rise to the level of an investigation in which anyone should place their confidence, particularly when the guys have been doing it without the benefit of, say, pictures, weather data, accurate timelines, interviews, witness statements, etc., which are still not fully released.
More directly: How can there be a credible and fact-based conclusion (more specific than just “GM Fucked Up”) without the relevant materials? There can’t be. This debacle was a mass tragedy, and the government is trying very hard to withhold materials. Surely you have read John Dougherty’s most recent article on that exact topic? It is going to be a long time before every shred of available relevant information is released, much less considered by the WFF guys on the internet.
For example, the AARs from the Yarnell Hill Fire – have you and Bob read them yet? What about everyone else on this website? Have *they* read them, or do you all think that they are not relevant to this discussion?
Gary Olson says
Well…I guess I will have to just have to agree to disagree with you on this subject and move on to my how to decorate a bathroom website, although I am thinking about building a how to make bird houses web site…after all tomorrow is Saturday. I have not earned much in life…but I have earned the right not to argue with fools.
Gary Olson says
In other words, if you or anybody else is keeping score…I don’t have to argue with anybody about anything or care what anybody thinks about anything. I think I have made that clear even if I haven’t made anything else I have said clear…my race is over, it was the same one Eric Marsh was running…I already won. Been there, did that…lived to write about it.
Gary Olson says
Oh…and one more thing. Living to write about it was no big deal. In the entire history of wildland firefighting, only 3 (?) hotshot crew bosses have not lived to talk about it. Tony Czak (and he really FUCKED up, I was there) the El Cariso crew boss, Bob (and history) has clearly documented he really FUCKED up and well…you know the name of the third hotshot crew boss who really FUCKED up…right?
Gary Olson says
No…I didn’t say Granite Mountain FUCKED up. The Granite Mountain Hotshots died. I said their leader…their crew boss FUCKED up because they are DEAD. No excuses.
Gary Olson says
Oh…and one more thing WFF. You are right that nobody can do anything about what happened on the last fire no matter how bitter I am, but maybe somebody can do something about what happens on the next fire. IF…they learn lessons from the last fire, rather than just chalk it up to **** happens, and nobody did anything wrong?
Elizabeth says
Who “ordered” anyone to stay anywhere, by the way, Gary? I have never seen that established as fact anywhere. Quite the opposite!
Gary Olson says
Sigh…just like xxfullsail.xx used to do. I consider the “hunker down and be safe” an order, such as orders to hotshot crew bosses go. Or you could call it just really good FUCKING advice, whichever makes you happy. Except to arrogant, stubborn wildland firefighters who don’t think they need to follow any of the rules any of the time (coming from a guy who fought fire AGRESSIVELY but provided for safety first, that is an indictment) and who can challenge the laws of nature and the reality of the situation with immunity.
Gary Olson says
Oh…and one more thing. I have always said that even if Darrell Willis (which I believe he did) or anybody else ordered Eric Marsh to go to Yarnell…it was invalid because nobody can “order” a hotshot crew boss to do something that was so risky…the result was predictable. Hindsight or not. Eric Marsh still owned that decision.
Elizabeth says
I don’t think anybody actually GAVE the order to “hunker.” Or maybe you don’t care about audio forensics as part of the investigation. I did; I do.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
…and you (typically) never answered
my question when this was discussed
down below.
What is your ALTERNATIVE word
for the first word of a sentence that
reads…
“xxxxxxx and be safe”
…or are you also saying that
there is no ‘and be safe’ quote
in the Caldwell video audio either?
If your answer there is yes… then
I’m afraid to inform you that
‘audio forensics’ has nothing to
do with this.
You need a hearing aid.
Tex Gilligan says
We love Gary. Gosh, nothing better to one’s ears than straight talk. Muuray Taylor is smokejumper and straight shooter too. We listen to so many types in the firefighting community and we appreciate everyone’s view but we just light up when we see Gary comment. Excellent post. 9 out of 10 of the people who have walked the area with us agree with Gary and we have walked it alot. Joy has her views that she wants to see proof only but all of us shake our heads and wonder why they would drop down in that overgrown bowl of brush. Thank you Gary. I am gonna vanish as it heats up here in Arizona but I told Joy I would come back to the area to hike it with you if the time ever came and you wanted such hike.
Gary Olson says
Thank you Tex, from somebody who has seen and done the things you have seen and done in your life…well, that is truly a compliment.
Elizabeth says
FYI, for those who missed it and for those who have been asking me, I did mention below that the evidence that *I* have gathered does not suggest that Jesse Steed or Eric Marsh had a pattern of behaving in a needlessly and excessively risky manner. Marsh was actually commended by an outside fire official for GM’s and his work on the Station Fire.
For those who want my source documents, please feel free to e-mail me.
It might well end up being that I find a pattern of excessively risky conduct at some point, but, for now, I have gone through over 200 GB of largely not-yet-publicly-available documentation and found nothing. That suggests to me that I am not likely to find anything….
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Elizabeth…
Please at least indicate a reference for the following statement
that you have made a number of times now…
>> they (GM) could have done NOTHING to help Gary Cordes –
>> who had ASKED for their help
What evidence exists for you to keep making such a statement
that it was Gary Cordes himself who ‘asked’ GM to leave
the safe black?
Elizabeth says
See above.
By the way, WTKTT, why don’t you grill the anonymous posters on this site about their sources, rather than only grilling me? You don’t even *know* RTS’s real name (and you know MY real name and my investigation-relevant professional background), yet you take what RTS says that other anonymous sources say as gospel truth, while meanwhile grilling me. Why is that, WTKTT?
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Elizabeth post on
March 20, 2014 at 3:23 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> See above.
What is that supposed to mean?
Are you saying you DO have evidence that
Cordes himself personally made the request
for GM to leave the safe black… but I’m
supposed to email you just to get a
‘Yes’ or a ‘No’ on that?
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> By the way, WTKTT, why don’t you grill the
>> anonymous posters on this site about their
>> sources, rather than only grilling me?
Do you even read this thread?
Oftentimes I do just that.
This time… it’s not about anyone else but you.
All I want to know is do YOU have any real
evidence for the claim you keep making that
it was Gary Cordes himself who personally
requested GM to leave the safe black?
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> You don’t even *know* RTS’s real name (and
>> you know MY real name and my investigation
>> relevant professional background), yet you take
>> what RTS says that other anonymous sources
>> say as gospel truth
See above. There have been MANY times when
I have asked RTS to back up things he has
said. He always does… to the extent that I
now understand he is able to.
And I assure you… if RTS was the one currently
stating that Cordes was the one who requested
GM to come down as if it was a FACT…
… I would be ‘grilling’ him about it as well.
This isn’t about RTS.
It’s about YOU.
>> while meanwhile grilling me.
>> Why is that, WTKTT?
Read your own professed ‘approach to
investigations’ above.
TRUST… but VERIFY.
I want YOU to provide some indication that you
are basing your statement about Cordes on
evidence… and not speculation.
Can you do that for me (us)?
It’s important.
Elizabeth says
If all you wanted was a “yes” or a “no,” the answer is “of COURSE” (e.g. “yes”) I have a source. I actually have THREE.
I have already made clear to you that, for professional reasons, I try very hard not to state anything as a fact unless I have convinced myself to a degree that I ethically believe is appropriate that I have an established fact. So, when I assert things as facts, you can assume that I have a source. Feel free to keep asking, of course.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Elizabeth…
Thank you… and ignore my response
to Bob Powers above which was
written BEFORE I saw this blurb
down here.
So to be CLEAR…
( You only have to answer again
if the answer is NO )…
You DO have THREE sources of
real evidence that establish, without
a shadow of a doubt, that SPGS1
Gary Cordes, who just received the
Arizona Wildfire Association’s
Firefighter of the Year award for
his ‘heroic’ actions on the Yarnell
hill fire…
…is, in fact, the one who personally
asked Granite Mountain to leave
the ‘safe black’ that afternoon.
My only *next* question ( since I
am now free to ask )… is when
and in what format do you plan
to publish whatever it is you
are doing?
Elizabeth says
WTKTT, as I explained elsewhere, Cordes and Musser were talking, Cordes indicated that he needed “resources” to “bump” to his area in light of the fire now moving due east toward his area (as opposed to moving NORTH toward the territory that Willis was working on), apparently Cordes’s radio was not transmitting well, so Musser reached out to DivsA on Cordes’s behalf.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
See above where I call
you out on this ‘backtrack’
of yours.
If you really want us to
believe what you say
here… show us the
evidence. Post it
somewhere public.
SR says
Yes. Simply not credible as-is. And this has been going on in multiple comments addressing multiple topics. When pressed, there is then a backtrack. Her confusing Santa Anas as something that happened at YHF become RTS saying that…not good.
Bob Powers says
Until his pears come forward you probably wont see written statements. I believe RTS came forward with the information if you chose not to believe it then you may miss the very key to unlock this mystery. it has happened before on the Loop fire. almost the same activity except only half the crew died. Do what ever it takes to make a name for yourself. If GM was rewarded for taking chances then they justified the fact they could do more chance taking. Braking the rules justified by the end result. In ten years I am sure they did some good things and received good ratings. They probably averaged 30 big fires per year all over the west.
SR says
I think most small groups with a strong leader and a practice of rule-breaking and secrecy even as to things such as their physical location when “on the clock” tend, very rationally, to not keep extensive records of their rulebreaking. So, unless someone outside GM did put notes in a file that got produced via FOIA, there’s no reason to even look for evidence of that sort of thing there.
Elizabeth says
Bob, I have avoided saying this, but it seems like you are going to press the point, so here we go…. I am partially echoing what Mike has already said (but everyone ignored), when I make the obvious and grave point as follows:
If I buy into RTS’s theory, then I have to buy into the fact that RTS and his friends deliberately did NOTHING about something that they recognized as a life-threatening problem (“we could see this coming” or something like that is what RTS says his friends said). The fact that men in RTS’s position would stand by without sending an E-MAIL, anonymous note, or anything to Prescott Human Resources, to ADOSH, or to ANYONE (which would then lead to a paper trail that I could sniff out) is something I refuse to fathom. Period.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
>> On March 20, 2014 at 12:27 pm, Elizabeth said:
>>
>> My investigation motto is (and should always be) “Trust but VERIFY.”
>> If I am going to do an investigation the RIGHT way, then I cannot RELY
>> on what Sonny (for example) claims or what one anonymous guy says
>> another anonymous guy said without VERIFYING things to the
>> extent that I can.
Always a good approach.
So… using your OWN ‘approach’ about not trusting something just
because someone SAYS it…
>> Elizabeth on March 20, 2014 at 1:01 pm said:
>>
>> Just thinking out loud, here, if you are suggesting that they should have
>> gone all the way to Congress, well, it is obvious to me why going to
>> Congress was not appealing, because it would mean they were effectively
>> out of the workday. Meaning, they could have done NOTHING to help Gary
>> Cordes – who had ASKED for their help – and the communities if they had
>> gone over the ridge.
Keyphrase…
>> they (GM) could have done NOTHING to help Gary Cordes –
>> who had ASKED for their help
I believe that’s about the third time you have said that… WITHOUT
providing any reference of any kind.
What gives you the right to keep saying that it was Gary Cordes
himself who ASKED ‘them’ ( Marsh? Steed? who? ) for ‘help’ that day?
What evidence do YOU have that allows you to make such a
specific statement… as if it was a FACT?
Gary Cordes was just awarded this year’s Arizona Wildfire Academy
Firefighter of the Year award for his actions at the Yarnell Hill Fire…
…and you are putting the request for GM to leave the safe black that day
directly into his mouth.
Please provide some PROOF of why you are doing that.
Elizabeth says
If the big question that I, personally, am examining is “why did the GM guys leave the spot where they were sitting in the photos taken at roughly 4:02 and 4:04 p.m. and go to the Boulder Springs Ranch,” then part of answering that question for ME involves understanding fully the other options that were available at 4:04.
Hiking DOWN the two-track that Blue Ridge came in on for the face-to-face meeting with GM was no longer an option at 4:04 p.m. because the fire was pretty darn close to the two-track at that point. Hiking over to the black up the mountain might have been an option – IF all 19 men could have done it in roughly 22 minutes – although I am still thinking through (me, personally) whether there was anything about the black that would have made it less desirable to GM at that point at 4:04 p.m. The fact that it involved an incredibly steep slope at the top of robust green (raising super-heated gas issues) is not great, particularly since one firefighter on the fire that day believes the flame lengths were in excess of 200 feet when the front unexpectedly pushed at roughly 4:27-ish p.m.
WTKTT’s new revelation that there were HUGE green areas (“the size of soccer fields”) in the black also could have been a thought in GM’s collective mind as they analyzed whether they wanted to get in there (given that they presumably realized that any green areas in the black could have caught fire at any time and put off some, flying embers, and radiant heat). If I am missing anything with that, such that having huge green areas (“the size of soccer fields”) in the black is not actually a problem, please let me know. (To that end, I would be grateful if people like SR, WTKTT, etc. could lay off the snark and needlessly insulting comments toward me, since those comments make me want to throw up my hands and walk away, which would benefit neither the communities impacted by the fire nor the larger wildfire/firefighting/emergency communities generally. Thank you.)
Bob Powers says
No way in that fuel flame lengths were 200 ft.. I am not trying to be negative to you in any way. The Black even with some islands was safe. The Islands never burned during the 1600 blowup of the fire. That was WTKTT fact that the burned area was safe not that GM could use it as a SZ. Please listen to what we as fire fighters are telling you. I am trying not to be snarky or insulting just answer your questions. RTS was on site several months ago and also said the black was safe and referred to Frisby stating the same thing. Also to clarify if GM would have waited in the black till the fire made its run to the Boulder Springs Ranch. Then they could have walked across the top on the ATV trail and down the trail to the vehicle parking area they had left there trucks in and back into town. That was a real option than going into heavy brush. That option would have taken longer for some reason they were in a hurry. They never had to leave the black because of the fire. That was one thing determined by the Region 3 Hot Shot Superintendent walk thru on the fire. If you read the other statements from the past 2 days you will note that even Tex said the Black was safe on top and over the ridge again 300 ft. to the top of the ridge see map.
Elizabeth says
Thanks, Bob. Just so you know, however, my investigation motto is (and should always be) “Trust but VERIFY.” If I am going to do an investigation the RIGHT way, then I cannot RELY on what Sonny (for example) claims or what one anonymous guy says another anonymous guy said without VERIFYING things to the extent that I can.
To that end, it doesn’t MATTER if the green *never* burned. That is an “ex post” analysis, and I am doing an “ex ante” analysis. What did GM know at 4:04 p.m. when they made their decision? They knew that there were green areas in the black that were the “size of soccer fields.” Isn’t that kind of dangerous for a black or no? Again, I care about WHY GM did what they did, not what we NOW know didn’t burn.
Thank you, though, for giving me your input (and for doing it without snark)! 🙂
Bob Powers says
No it is not unsafe unless something like a contentions understory burn where the top of the fuel doesn’t burn a fire creeps thru the ground fuel and the over story could crown and burn. The Islands in question were left after the first 2 days of the burn or first 400 acres. Many fires leave what is called a mosaic burn. Burned area with Islands and strips of unburned inside the burn. Those Islands were to far from the big burn on the 30th to catch fire well inside the burn area. As is evidence that they did not catch fire on the afternoon of the 30th. They were well inside the old burn area not next to the fire line and unburned fuel. There were also some areas referred to by WTNTT near the deployment area I am not talking about those. just the burned area on the 28 to the morning early afternoon of the 30th. Dose that make science to you?
Bob Powers says
Also what GM knew—–
Marsh and crew knew they had 400 to 1800 acres of burn above them and there fire line.
Marsh walked way up into the area and also met with Frisby on top in the Black. They knew they had a lot of black above them.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
To try and add a little additional clarity to the subject, let me provide this example:
An acre is approximately the size of one football field. Let’s say that there were five, separate, one acre unburned areas within the black. That would leave 395 football fields of black for a crew to shelter in, within the 400 acre area.
Elizabeth says
Yeah, but, uh, have you looked at WHERE those “soccer fields” or football fields are and how fast GM could get to them and around them? I haven’t (which is why I am asking YOU). For me, it is all about verifying the details, as opposed to believing what some anonymous guy said that another anonymous guy said.
That said, what Bob Powers says makes sense to me.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Elizabeth post on
March 20, 2014 at 1:41 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> Yeah, but, uh, have you
>> looked at WHERE those
>> “soccer fields” or football
>> fields are and how fast GM
>> could get to them and
>> around them? I haven’t.
For the third time…
The photos being discussed
at this time are HERE…
A42-Aerial Video and
Photos Mayhew
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/7b7asvh6ptdavbr/FixOl2n6pI
269 super highres aerial
photos taken on July 4, 2013,
just 4 days after the Yarnell tragedy.
Sonny says
I don’t claim anything. I state the day as it happened. What claims are you referring to when using my name, Elizabeth? I have had numerous firefighters hike it with me with extensive background in fires and they are so very proud I shared that day. Do not forget, I had Joy snap photos all through that day. What if I never did. Where would anyone from the Sair to OSHA to media/authors/journalists/investigators be if I had not made her take them in 103-107 degree weather to show the fire at the fire edge. Joy wanted to take a few shots to show locals the area and go. I can speak and you can have no interest in me but we have been nothing but open in sharing that day to all who seek the truth. We do not feel the weather was the final factor until all areas have been exhausted on the human factor area. That is all. Simple. We never made any claims or theories but shared purely our accounts that whole weekend.
Elizabeth says
What are you talking about, Sonny? I am not disputing anything you said…..
Tex Gilligan says
somewhere you mentioned my name Sonny and “claim” to have ???
so I replied.
I just want to clarify I never made theories or claims. I just told my accounts as they happened on the fire with proof (vidoes and photos) and every day since.
I would probably name the people Joy would not but Joy knows the community and respects the sensitivity of the people and their traumas so I will not do that for Joy. Joy just hopes the people in time will come out and tell you all. Some did. Dr. Leroy Anderson and his CBS Morgan Loew piece shares that account. Thank you for not disputing the accounts because its how my day happened. I saved Joy’s life and she to this day does not understand that too well. That’s ok with me. It’s life experience of knowing that terrain and fire. She is a kid. Yet I knew early on to leave that area. Wooten/Morrison compliments our account that weekend. Excellent reading.
Elizabeth says
I’m not sure what you are talking about, Sonny.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Bob Powers post on March 20, 2014 at 12:09 pm
>> Mr. Powers said…
>> The Black even with some islands was safe.
>> The Islands never burned during the 1600
>> blowup of the fire.
>> That was WTKTT fact that the burned area was
>> safe not that GM could use it as a SZ.
Correct. The ONLY reason I pointed out those aerial
photos of the ‘safe black’ at the anchor point in the
discussion below was so that if anyone still had any
doubts that the existing ‘safe-black’ was NEVER
‘touched by flame lengths’ or ‘hit by spotting’ that
afternoon… then there is the PROOF.
Besides… even IF they had any ‘concerns’ up there…
they could have turned even that one ‘visible’ unburned
area into a parking lot if they hadn’t wasted 35 minutes
hiking south, dropping into a fuel-filled tangled mess
of a canyon, and eventually walking into a wall of flames.
You can do a LOT of clearing in 35 minutes with 4
chainsaws and 19 guys…. and that one area they
could ‘see’ already right near them and could have
turned into a ‘dirt parking lot’ was 2/3 the size of
the ‘safe-zone’ they ended up wasting time hiking
to, anyway. It didn’t happen. They LEFT ‘the black’.
>> They never had to leave the black because of the fire.
Correct… and anyone who calls themselves a wildland
firefighter would have known that.
>> They were in a hurry.
Yes… they were. Their decisions (apparently) had
NOTHING to do with ‘staying safe’ as OPS1 Todd
Abel TOLD them to do. They were on ‘a mission’.
I just wish that if they were in such a hurry that they
would choose that absurd ‘short-cut’ through that
fuel-filled canyon with no lookout… then why weren’t
they moving at ‘double-time’ on the hike south
before even making that decision? The ‘minutes’ that
would have cut off the trip *might* have made
the difference, in the end.
The SOONER they could have reached the floor
of that canyon and found out they were in deep
tapioca… the more options they would have
had ( RUN forward to ranch or RUN back to ridge ).
Brendan McDonough knows EXACTLY what their
‘mission’ was that afternoon… whose IDEA it was…
and so does anyone else ( Darrell Willis? ) who was
listening to that infamous ‘discussing their options’
conversation..
Elizabeth says
My view is that there is NO way that they could have made it to the floor of the valley *AND* back up it again before the fire was on them as per the Matt Oss photos. That’s also (one reason) why the suggestion that they should have walked the entire ridge over to the Boulder Springs Ranch was a non-starter.
Elizabeth says
I should elaborate, to avoid being cryptic: When the assumed descent route was TOTALLY burned out, it still took the fit, average guy roughly 15 or 20-ish minutes to get fully down it. Imagine being one of 19 hiking back UP it with a pack and guys in front of you and behind you. Even if you drop everything and RUN, how likely is it that you can get back up it faster than, say, 12 minutes. So, 20 minutes down, 12 minutes up, we are at 32 minutes total. By then, the fire in the Matt Oss photos would have been on them, it seems.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Elizabeth post
on March 20, 2014 at 1:09 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>> When the assumed descent route
>> was TOTALLY burned out, it still
>> took the fit, average guy roughly
>> 15 or 20-ish minutes to get fully
>> down it.
Nope. Blue Ridge Captain Brown
made the same exact descent on
the same exact path assumed
for GM ( the drainage area ) in
only FOUR minutes when he was
‘running’ down from the ridge to
the deployment site following
the burnover. See the Blue Ridge
GPS data records.
>> Imagine being one of 19 hiking
>> back UP it with a pack and guys
>> in front of you and behind you.
It’s absurd to even imagine they
would have still had their packs on,
or to even use the word ‘hiking’ to
describe the kind of ‘scramble for
your life’ moments that would have
been happening there.
>> Even if you drop everything and
>> RUN, how likely is it that you can
>> get back up it faster than, say,
>> 12 minutes.
VERY likely.
Have you EVER felt the kind of
adrenaline, yourself, that would have
been completely in play there?
Life or Death?
It’s awesome what can happen then.
>> So, 20 minutes down, 12 minutes
>> up, we are at 32 minutes total. By
>> then, the fire in the Matt Oss
>> photos would have been on
>> them, it seems.
Someday someone needs to do a
‘full adrenaline’ test… but I believe
the ‘return trip’ could have been
accomplished in 6 minutes, even
with the manzanita to deal with.
That means that if they had
‘dropped packs and run’ at the
exact moment they decided it
was their only option… SOME
of them MIGHT have made it
back up ( and OVER ) the ridge.
Perhaps only half of them ( whoever
was best at maintaining maximum
speed and not falling down at all ).
Don’t forget… we now know that
they had realized their predicament
some moments ( perhaps even
1 or 2 minutes? ) BEFORE Steed
made his first MAYDAY call.
That is not ‘over modulation’ being
heard in Steed’s first MAYDAY call.
It’s CHAINSAWS already RUNNING.
So the fact that they realized their
predicament PRIOR to 1639 and
had already spent time deciding
to deploy, finding the spot, and
pulling the ropes on the chainsaws
just adds even MORE time to
what would have been needed to
get back up the ridge.
If they even just spent 60 seconds
doing all that before the first
MAYDAY call… then even your
(very) conservative ’12 minutes’ up
time means they could have
made it out of there.
SR says
Half the time back up pre-burn is simply not credible.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Only a good test will prove it.
Full adrenaline, no pack, life
or death scramble, as fast
as possible back up.
No one has done such a test.
Even if someone does… the
results will ONLY apply to
that third and final ‘fatal
decision’ moment from that
day… but it would still be
interesting to know what
might have been possible.
Joy A Collura says
black that would have made it less desirable to GM at that point at 4:04 p.m.
WHERE IS TOM DOLAN—HE HAS THE WEATHER SCIENTIFIC NAMES—YET IN LAY MEN TERMS HE STATED THE 2000 DEGREE HOT ASH WOULD OF GOT SONNY AND ME AS WELL AS THE GMHS IN CERTAIN AREAS OF THE BLACK WHEN THAT LATE AFTERNOON TORNADO/CLOUD COLLAPSED AND DROPPED THAT “P”-ASH DOWN—SO HE SAYS THAT WOULD MAKE IT LESS DESIRABLE. DO NOT THROW UP YOUR HANDS ELIZABETH. SOME OF THE 2014 FOLKS THAT COME OUR WAY HAVE TRIED TO RE-NARRATE OUR HIKE AND EYE-WITNESS ACCOUNTS AND YOU ARE SPOT ON TO KEEP TREKKING WITH THIS AND TOO MANY HAVE COME TO US AND APPRECIATE EVERY BIT OF ASSISTANCE AND TIME PEOPLE HAVE FOR THIS IS A HARD HEALING PROCESS FOR SO MANY— NOW, TOM DOLAN SAID THE ASH ALONE AT 2000 DEGREES WOULD OF KILLED THEM YET REMEMBER WE ARE ALIVE AND WITH THE SQUIRRELY WINDS THAT DAY AND THE ODD RETARDANT DROPS AND NOONE COMING PUBLIC YET SHOWING THE AERIAL THOSE LAST HOURS BEFORE DARK OR THE HOMEOWNERS NOT POSTING PUBLIC “YET” THEN ALL WE CAN DO IS WAIT—YET AS I TOLD TOM DOLAN THAT HE MADE AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION FROM A WEATHER SIDE OF IT BUT IN THE END HE THOUGHT MAYBE WE THOUGHT THIS WAS A SMOKE GUN OR HOWEVER THE PHRASE IS BUT NOPE- WE JUST WANT THE FACTS AND FOR DOCUMENTS AND SOURCE TO SHOW TO HOW IT BECAME A FACT IS ALL—I RESPECT ALL THE FOLKS WHO ARE LOCKED IN THAT THE MEN DID WRONG BUT I WON’T SETTLE AS THAT IS THE PURITY OF IT ALL UNTIL ALL AREAS HAVE BEEN LOOKED AT AND THAT IS IMPORTANT. TOM SAYS IT WAS THE WEATHER THAT WAS THE FINAL CONTRIBUTOR FACTOR AND WE TEND TO WANT TO EXHAUST “ALL” ANGLES OF THE HUMAN FACTOR AS WELL AS THE HUMAN PERCEPTIONS AS THIS UNFOLDED—WHAT I SAW WILL NOT BE THE SAME PERCEPTION AS WHAT TEX SAW…HE SAW IT AS DANGEROUS EARLY ON AND I DID NOT SO YOU SEE HOW WE SAW THE SAME FIRE BUT SAW IT DIFFERENT. I HAVE HIKED THE MOUNTAINS AND BEEN KNOWN TO HIKE IT WITH SNAKE BOOTS BUT I DID A LUNDI MOVE AND I WAS BAREFOOT OR WITH SANDALS ON DOING ABOUT 8 MILES AND OF ALL DAYS I HAD A SNAKE CROSS OVER MY ANKLE/FOOT BECAUSE I WAS TALKING TO TEX AND NOT FOCUSED TO THE GROUND AND AROUND SO ON THIS FIRE I WANT TO BE FOCUSED TO WHAT WE SAW ON THE GROUND AND AROUND BUT AS WELL EXHAUST ALL ACCOUNTS FROM ALL AREAS AND PIECE THIS PUZZLE TOGETHER AND THE SAIR DOES NOT MATCH ALOT OF HOMEOWNERS DOCUMENTED WITH PROOF ACCOUNTS AND ALL WE CAN DO IS KEEP PRAYING THE MORE THAT COME FORWARD THE MORE AT EASE MORE FEEL TO COMING FORWARD. SOME WE SPOKE WITH KNOW WITHOUT A DOUBT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SHARE WHO SHOWED US WHAT BUT WE WILL ALWAYS ENCOURAGE IT TO BE MADE PUBLIC AND I DO NOT CARE IF IT SOUNDS REDUNDANT BUT I HAVE TO KEEP IT FRESH IN THE POSTS FOR SOME DO NOT SCROLL TO OLD INFORMATION AND IT HAS BEEN SHOWING RESULTS TO AT LEAST HELP US WHO EYE-WITNESSED UNDERSTAND THE FIRE BETTER FROM OTHERS’ VIEWS AND ANGLES THAT SAW IT TOO.
Bob Powers says
I would say Mr. Dolan has no idea what he is talking about. 2000 degree hot ash in all my years I have seen no such thing. 2000 degrees hot air and a blow torch fire I have seen but that is centralized in the flaming front. Flame lengths going up hill in that type of fuel wind driven would not reach more than 100 Ft. as soon as the fire ran out of fuel the flame length would vanish as well as the high heat. the high heat would then dissipate some one on or slightly over a ridge 300+ feet from the fire would feel very little heat. Burning embers 400 to 500 Deg. Ignition point of woody fuel.
I have been on timber fires when they have crowned in the black, ash and smoke can be uncomfortable but not life threating and not 2000 degrees. I do not know how else to say it except only direct wind blown flame would carry any where near 2000 Degrees. 300 ft from the flame is safe in the black unless your in a chimney or narrow steep canyon where the heat would be concentrated the top of the mountain was certently not that.
Joy A Collura says
he had scientific names for it but it was the late afternoon fire tornado he stated when the ash collapsed—the presentation may of made it to youtube- he did one here in Yarnell recently-
Bob Powers says
Much was speculation with out fact and I for one have never seen such an occurrence.
Joy A Collura says
spot on. I actually stated that on the phone to him. I think he felt I was being a lady of debate but I too stated your last comment. Can you view the presentation. I just want facts/proof not speculations-
Robert the Second says
WTKKT,
I have some questions and comments regarding some of your comments to my post about your link for the Dropbox photos of the burned area around the GMHS SZ.
My point was that dropping off the ridge toward Congress as Tex suggested was a very good idea and commonly used in the WFF world. You’ll notice how the fire more-or-less petered out over the backside of the ridge. Hopping over a ridgetop works as a good SZ unless you have strong gravity winds like Santa Anas that burn downhill as fast and intense as uphill. Gravity winds were not the case on the YHF.
You mentioned how many of the boulders were not scorched and burned. Boulders do not make good SZ’s especially when they are surrounded by heavy fuel – thick brush in this case. So then, just because the boulders in these photos don’t show any/much evidence of scorch seems to be giving you a false sense of them being a safe alternative to a true SZ. Definitely not the case.
The green unburned islands you point out are very common on chaparral fires and should in no way be an indicator that one could either locate thos and/or rely on those as vialbe SZ’s. They’re the result of a number of factors like wind shifts, fire behavior pulses, higher fuel moistures, and the like.
Robert the Second says
WTKTT,
And the gaps/areas between the boulders act as chimneys, chutes, and saddles that funnel the winds and thus the fire behavior. Therefore, boulders do NOT make good SZ’s. I have never and would never use boulders as SZ’s or even safe areas unless they were devoid of fuel.
Elizabeth says
RTS, are I to understand that you are stating that all 19 GM Hotshots could have made it through the black and up the steep hike and over the ridge toward Congress, making it PAST the part of the Congress-side of the ridge that burned by no later than 4:27 p.m., even though they would not have departed on that trek sooner than 4:04 p.m.? If so, have you hiked that area? (I have not.) Thank you.
Elizabeth says
“am I” – whoops!
Bob Powers says
Elizabeth–Check below for the statements by me and WTNTT about distances from their location before they moved. From the heal of the fire it was 300 FT. to the ridge and the location where the fire started, an easy hike and in the burn. Also I went back to the state report and there is a topo map of the fire at 1300 that shows all the info and ridge line if you have knowledge of topographic maps.
Elizabeth says
Ok, so, Bob, if I am understanding you correctly, you are saying that the guys should have hiked UP the ridge… and over down to Congress, where they would have been totally out of the fire efforts, yes? If so, how long do you estimate that it would have taken them to get UP the ridge, before THEN turning and hiking all the way down to Congress. We know that the hike to Joy and Sonny – just two people – hours. How long would it have taken 19 GM guys, do you suppose? I am just thinking out loud, here. Trying to think this through….
Bob Powers says
I dought the hike into the Black would have taken 15 Min. They did not have to go to Congress but could have. The further into the black the more comfortable they would be. But they were always in the black and therefore safe.
Joy A Collura says
REPLY TO—if I am understanding you correctly, you are saying that the guys should have hiked UP the ridge… FROM THE LUNCH BREAK AREA THERE IS HUGE BOULDERS NEAR ON THE MOUNTAINTOP AND YOU COULD EASILY RIDE THE MOUNTAINTOP TO THE AREA ABOVE THE 2 TRACK RIDGE AND SEE ALL FIRES AS WE DID—DROP DOWN ON TO THE 2 TRACK ROAD OR DROP TO THE CONGRESS SIDE BUT WE HAD THE FIRES IN VIEW MOST OF THAT MOUNTAINTOP HIKE AND IF THEY SAW IT TURN LIKE TEX (SONNY) DID AND THE DAY OF SQUIRRELY WINDS THEN THE ORIGINAL SAFETY ZONE OF THE HELM’S SHOULD AT THAT POINT BETWEEN 1-2PM BEEN MARKED AN AREA OF OMITTING AND BEGIN NEW LOCATION—WHICH IS HOW WE WENT AND WE HAD THE FIRE IN SIGHT UNTIL WE DROPPED DOWN WAY PAST ACRI’S CEMENT TRUCK ON THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND WAY PAST THE WINDMILL AREA SO THAT LETS YOU KNOW WE HAD THE FIRE IN VIEW AND WE ONLY DROPPED WHEN IT WAS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR TEX’S THINKING— and over down to Congress, where they would have been totally out of the fire efforts, yes?THEY STILL COULD SEE THE FIRE FROM THAT POINT AND THEY STILL COULD OF GOT TO GLEN ILAH ENDING UP NEAR THE HELM’S ON FOOTHILL LIKE WE DID OR PASS BY CANDIE CANE LANE LIKE WE DID—THERE WAS OTHE ROPTIONS. If so, how long do you estimate that it would have taken them to get UP the ridge, before THEN turning and hiking all the way down to Congress.I HIKE IT ALOT AND I AM STOUT AND IT DOES NOT TAKE LONG AT ALL DEPENDING WHICH SLOPE/STEEP TERRAIN/BOULDEROUS AREA. I MEAN IF I BEING STOUT HIKE FROM CONGRESS TO PRESCOTT USING THAT STEEP AREA AS A SHORTCUT AT TIMES VS TRAILING HWY 89 THEN I KNOW THE ELITE GMHS COULD DO IT AND I HIKE ALL YEAR ROUND IN THE HOTTEST TIMES SO YES THEY COULD OF DONE THAT BUT THERE IS A MISSING FACTOR AS TO WHY THEY FELT TO GO FROM THE BLACK TO THAT MOST DENSE MAZE LIKE VEGETATION BUT I FEEL CONFIDENT IN GOD’S TIME THE TRUTH WILL BE REVEALED BUT I STRONGLY FEEL THE SAIR AND OSHA REPORT IS NOT ALL OF IT. We know that the hike to Joy and Sonny – just two people – hours.PLEASE KNOW THAT WAS “THAT” FIRE AND NOT A NORMAL SITUATION BUT PEOPLE DO NOT REALIZE JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE THAT WE HIKED FROM PRESCOTT DMV TOWARDS YARNELL WHEN MY HUSBAND WAS COMING HOME FROM WORK AND SAW US IN BETWEEN WILHOIT/YARNELL AND TOOK US THE REST OF THE WAY, PLUS WE HIKED THE NEXT DAY, THE DAY OF THE FIRE ON THE 28TH, THE 29TH, AND THE 30TH WITH NO BREAKS AND IT WAS VERY HOT THAT DAY SO YES IT DID TAKE LONGER BECAUSE JOY HAD THIS OLD MINER IN HER EAR SAY “TAKE THIS PHOTO OR THAT ONE” AND I HAD MY CAMERA IN MY BACKPACK ON MY BACK SO THERE WAS DELAYS IN TIME ALSO BECAUSE I TOOK MY SNAKE BOOTS OFF FOR 40 MINUTES MY FEET SWELLED AND I HAD 6 BLISTERS ALREADY FROM THE PRESCOTT HIKE. DIFFERENT DAYS I CAN GO QUICK BUT MY GPS READINGS ON AVERAGE SAYS WITH MY HEIGHT I RANGE FROM 7-9MPH ON MY PACE IN HIKES BUT NOT IN DENSE AREAS IT SHOWS 1-3MPH IF THAT HELPS. YET THAT DAY I WAS 1-3 ALL THE WAY AND ZERO AT TIMES RESTING AWAY FROM THAT DRAINING SUN—THE SMOKE THAT AFFECTED MY LUNGS AND THIS OLD MINER WHO FELT HE KNEW WHAT WAS BEST AND I WAS GRUMPY AS ALL HELL TO LISTEN TO ANYONE AND WANTED TO REST AT EVERY SHADE SPOT. I AM NOT THE GMHS AND I DID NOT WALK IN A FORMAL LINE WITH HEAVY GEAR AND I COULD NOT IMAGINE THEM SCALING 14FT BOULDERS AS TEX HAD ME ON AND MORGAN LOEW IS THE ONLY HIKE THAT WENT THE WAY WE WENT, THE WAY THE MEN WENT AND SAW EVERYTHING AND IT WAS A VERY LENGTHY HIKE BUT I CAN LOOK BACK AND SAY WHATEVER CBS REPORTER MORGAN LOEW REPORTS HE GOES THE DISTANCE NOT SOME FAUX HIKE FOR A QUICK STORY. HE SPENT TIME ASSESSING WHO WE WERE AND LOCALS—HE REALLY SPENT “TIME” ABOVE AND BEYOND ANY REPORTER’S JOB DUTIES— How long would it have taken 19 GM guys, do you suppose? I WOULD LIKE THAT ANSWER TOOI am just thinking out loud, here. Trying to think this through….KEEP AT IT—ELIZABETH IS ALSO ONE OF THE FIRST TO GET GOING ON THIS AND HAS BEEN STRONG IN HELPING ALL AND WE APPRECIATE ALL YOU DO—EVERYONE HERE. THIS IS A TOGETHERNESS THING AND ITS IMPORTANT IT STAYS STRONG SO THANK YOU ALL-
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
Also, as one looks at the eastern facing photos of the western ridge slopes, taken in the days after the fire had completed it’s push to west, one will see that there has been very little burning DOWN those western slopes. This backs-up what some of us have been saying regarding the usually safe passage of the down and out route, unless, as RTS has noted, it’s a Santa Ana like event.
Elizabeth says
TTWARE: When you say a Santa Ana-like event, I am assuming that the wind event documented in the Matt Oss photos is of that ilk, but perhaps I am misunderstanding.
My personal view is that we need to be mindful of the terrain and the fact that we had 19 guys traveling in a pack. Could they have realistically gotten up the ridge and OVER the ridge out of the super-heated gasses and the catastrophic smoke within roughly 20-ish minutes? I don’t know.
SR says
Santa Anas are downslope winds fed by high pressure air masses that cross into CA and then literally fall downhill. That is very different from what the Oss photos show.
Joy A Collura says
If you mean could the men go from facing the fire and climb that steep sloped GREEN terrain from the deployment area—hell no. Not with it GREEN and that maze-like terrain and the grade/angle of steepness. nope. Ask the local rancher and the local jogger and some off the grid folks who know that exact spot or ask the Helm’s–NOPE. Not even if you were “specially groomed”—maybe one very special elite one but not 19 with all that gear.
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
Yes, that’s what I’m stating. I am “stating that all 19 GM Hotshots could have made it through the black and up the [SHORT] steep hike and [UP] over the ridge [AND DOWN THE OTHER SIDE] toward Congress, making it PAST the part of the Congress-side of the ridge that burned by no later than 4:27 p.m., even though they would not have departed on that trek sooner than 4:04 p.m.” Yes, they could have made it safely. Just look at the Dropbox photos where the fire BARELY burned over the top of the ridge. AND they could have even burned off some of the Congress-side of the slope as they travelled down toward the highway and sought refuge in that black. AND the “Congress-side of the ridge that burned” would have also provided them a SZ and safe refuge.
ANY of these, ALL of these, would have been a much safer alternative to the virtual suicide route they took down into the unburned chute and unburned bowl. Death traps for sure.
I think they would have been very foolish to abandon their perfectly good SZ at that time of the day, during the intense and erratic winds, and coincident extreme fire behavior. However, with the GMHS leaving at or about 4:04 would have easily allowed them to make it safely UP over the top of the ridge and DOWN toward the road to Congress (that may even be visible in some of the Dropbox photos).
Elizabeth says
Thanks, RTS.
Just thinking out loud, here, if you are suggesting that they should have gone all the way to Congress, well, it is obvious to me why going to Congress was not appealing, because it would mean they were effectively out of the workday. Meaning, they could have done NOTHING to help Gary Cordes – who had ASKED for their help – and the communities if they had gone over the ridge.
Also, I do not agree with you that the trip to the Boulder Springs Ranch was a suicide march, based on the weather and wind data that they had available to them at the time. We all know that it turned out to be a death march, but I am looking at what they KNEW at the time when they started their move (at likely 4:05 p.m.), and, based on what they knew at the time, it seemed that it would be fine.
SR says
There are things that just don’t seem to be processing here. I am not sure where Elizabeth gets the idea that, at the time GM committed to descending via the bowl, that conditions suggested this would be safe, at all. Likewise, Elizabeth keeps referring to the superheated gases and catastrophic smoke that they would have been exposed to if they’d stayed in the black.
Elizabeth, what, exactly, are the sources you are relying on for making these assertions, namely 1) your assertion that GM had reason to think that their bushwhack would be “fine,” and 2) your continual assertions that staying committed to the black would have exposed GM to superheated gases and catastrophic smoke and (implicitly) that GM’s decision to move was motivated by this risk?
Do you have ANY credible sources at all that support these views, or are you just saying these things?
Elizabeth says
SR, did you mean to also type “by the way, sorry for being an asshole to you before?” If so, I am happy to answer you. If not, pound salt.
SR says
Never was an asshole, so nothing to be sorry about. When you say things that show you obviously don’t have a grasp of some basics, it is the act of a friend to point that out. Particularly so when you have been looking at this event on a regular basis and still seem clueless as to basics. Even more so when you purport to be conducting a formal “investigation.” Imagine if you write some report talking about the Santa Ana winds at the YHF, and talking about how it would have taken GM at least HALF AS LONG to reverse and ascend the bowl as it did to descend. Let’s say it wouldn’t look good.
Likewise, is does no favors to the families of the deceased to tell them some fiction about how GM prudently retreated from the SZ because of concern over superheated gases. And that, btw, they’ll have to accept whatever lousy compensation Prescott is offering. Maybe emotionally pleasant to say there were no serious, jarring mistakes here, but very cruel to those families.
Elizabeth says
You realize that RTS brought up the Santa Ana winds, not me, right? So you are calling Robert the Second clueless! Niiiiice.
And you realize that WTKTT is the one making all sorts of absurd claims about how fast someone can run UP a hill, not me, right?
Maybe reading for comprehension is where you might want to spend your time, rather than snarking at me, SR.
SR says
No.
RTS said that dropping over a ridge can work as a SZ UNLESS you are dealing with gravity-fed winds like Santa Anas. He clearly knows exactly what they are. And never suggested that YHF involved Santa Anas. YOU however just stated a few minutes ago that you thought the Oss photos did show Santa Ana-like winds.
Likewise, you in fact did say you thought GM could reverse back uphill in half the time of the descent. WTKTT did agree with you, to be sure, but you put the idea out there.
Denying your clear words and claiming that it is my reading comprehension issue does you no credit.
Elizabeth says
Reading for comprehension, I said: “You realize that RTS brought up the Santa Ana winds, not me, right?”
Bob Powers says
What I saw and knew at the time and what Marsh said about Squarely winds on top before 1600 says they should have known they could not go down into a killing field with an out of control fire only 1 1/2 miles from where they were going. It is just basic Fire 101 a bad idea period. They should have said absolutely no to Cordes or any one else. It was just totally unsafe to do what they did and I believe they took the risk as they had many times before and this time it caught up with them.
Elizabeth says
Bob, I disagree with you on all counts, at least at this point in time, based on the materials that I am currently reviewing. A couple of unnamed, anonymous guys saying that Marsh – who might not have even BEEN with the crew at 4:04 – was unsafe does not an investigation make, at least the way that I do investigations. Gary might be different. 🙂
Joy and Sonny says
support this comment yet we seek to exhaust all angles as to how come…I mean, it just does not add up. For own peace, we would like clarity as to how come Helm’s remained a bomb proof safety zone and how come people want us to lock on to the weather factor only. We are not seeking blame or cover-up but we are open to show that hike in hopes one fits the puzzle together just right—because the homeowners’ accounts do not match to public reports and media accounts. Simple. No claims like Elizabeth states—we have no stakes or claims just our account that entire weekend. Which too many in the firefighter and smokejumper community who are independent thinkers or not—both sides—thank us for sharing our day because anyone who knows us knows Sonny is a desert isolated man and Joy does her hikes and meets/greets the locals on them and helps some too and ends her day before meeting Sonny jotting her hikes on her hiking page on zazzle. Not a book to be written just 2 live and let live free thinkers who are not programmed to believe what is being fed out there especially when we were THERE at the fire edge where the GMHS were as well watched the others Blue Ridge, Supervisors and other firefighters—and so far the people that were there that came to us say we are spot on AND do not forget we hiked it immediately upon return and our account never changed and alot is in the SAIR which compliments our account but there is some areas we feel there needs to be more said is all—like Sonny said earlier you don’t have to like us or what we say but how about the photos that are missing as well as the ones we shared already—they say it all. How about the homeowners’ accounts and photos. They say much more—so until it is all out there we will not settle on it being just the weather and that’s all.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to RTS post on March 20, 2014 at 9:46 am
>> RTS said…
>> My point was that dropping off the ridge toward Congress as
>> Tex suggested was a very good idea and commonly used in
>> the WFF world.
No question. If they had exited the area the same way that
Tex and Joy did… they would all be alive today.
>> You’ll notice how the fire more-or-less petered out over the
>> backside of the ridge.
Yes. There WERE places where it ‘flared’ over the ridge
before ‘petering’ out ( The Matt Oss video shows these
specific points )… but see above. If they had exited the
area the way Tex and Joy did… ( or just retreated farther
into the cold black ) they would have been out of harm’s way
by that time.
>> Hopping over a ridgetop works as a good SZ unless you
>> have strong gravity winds like Santa Anas that burn downhill
>> as fast and intense as uphill. Gravity winds were not
>> the case on the YHF.
Correct. Didn’t happen.
>> You mentioned how many of the boulders were not scorched
>> and burned. Boulders do not make good SZ’s especially when
>> they are surrounded by heavy fuel – thick brush in this case.
>> So then, just because the boulders in these photos don’t show
>> any/much evidence of scorch seems to be giving you a false
>> sense of them being a safe alternative to a true SZ. Definitely
>> not the case.
Rest assured… I ( me, personally ) have no ‘false sense’ of
the boulder piles being a GOOD ‘safety zone’ that afternoon…
but we are talking about SURVIVABILITY here. I in no way
intended to ‘re-ignite’ the debate about whether they should
have scrambled into the rocks that day. They had NO GOOD
options at 1639… but the one they chose was absurd and
was an immediate death sentence… and they SHOULD
have known that.
All those photos show is that ONE of their only options at
1639 *might* have been ‘survivable’.
Personally… I think if they had scrambled to the rock piles…
about half of them would have died… but (maybe) the other
half would have found the ‘cave-like’ features that Tex himself
has talked about and ( if they could have held their breath long
enough and/or used their shelters as forward-facing shields )
some of them *might* have made it… even with some
pretty serious burns.
There was nothing SAFE about it… but the photos show that
there was a *chance* of ‘survivability’ up in those rocks.
>> The green unburned islands you point out are very common
>> on chaparral fires and should in no way be an indicator that
>> one could either locate those and/or rely on those as vialbe
>> SZ’s.
Yes… but the ‘unique’ thing about those ‘unburned’ areas
up around the anchor point shown in the July 4 aerial photos
is that they were ALREADY ‘inside the black’.
They WOULD have been able to ‘see’ them and ‘locate’ them.
If they really had concerns about being ‘safe’… even in the
middle of that extensive ( cold-black )… then these ‘visible’
unburned areas could/should have presented themselves
as yet ‘another’ option.
There was enough ‘cold black’ up there for ANYONE who
calls themselves a wildland firefighter to have felt ‘safe’
by just utilizing it… so we are already in ‘la-la land’ here
even discussing this… but stick with me for a moment.
If they had NOT wasted 35 minutes ( 4:04 PM to 4:39 PM )
hiking south, into a fuel-filled box canyon, and eventually
right into a wall of flames… then they could have used
those 35 minutes to TOTALLY ‘improve’ any of those
unburned areas in the middle of the black into an
ultimate safety/deployment site. A LOT of ‘clearing’ can
be accomplished with 19 guys, 4 chainsaws, and 35
minutes. If they really were worried that all that ‘black’
wasn’t good enough… they could have turned even just
that one ‘unburned’ area into a parking lot in under
35 minutes… and it was 2/3 the size of the ‘bomb-proof’
area they would ended up trying to hike towards, anyway.
Again… this whole discussion is absurd since there was
NO REASON for anyone who calls themselves a wildland
firefighter NOT to have confidence in that ENORMOUS
safe-black up there… but you made good points and
I wanted to clarify my comments.
I believe the fact that the aerial photos show those areas
in the middle of the safe-black remaining ‘totally unburned’
is just even MORE proof of how ‘safe’ that ‘safe-black’
around the anchor point really was that afternoon.
There was NO ‘flame length’ or ‘spotting’ that touched them,
before, during, or after the 4:15 to 5:15 PM ‘firestorm’.
SR says
Just noting for emphasis that RTS clearly (and correctly) states that gravity winds were NOT the case for the YHF.
SR says
Just noting for emphasis that RTS clearly and correctly notes that gravity winds were NOT an issue for the YHF. In contrast, here’s Elizabeth: “When you say a Santa Ana-like event, I am assuming that the wind event documented in the Matt Oss photos is of that ilk, but perhaps I am misunderstanding…” I never called RTS clueless, and COMPLETELY AGREE that Santa Anas weren’t involved for the YHF. I need to say that because Elizabeth tried to claim I am somehow disagreeing with RTS, not her, on this point.
Robert the Second says
Tex and Joy,
I have some questions regarding your March 19th posting. Are you suggesting that someone was doing a burnout operation from or in the vicinity of the Boulder Springs Ranch? I’ve read it several times and can’t seem to pinpoint just wherew you’re talking about.
Also, the “Tim Dolan presentation” Who is the Tim Dolan you’re referring to here? And what, when, where was his “presentation”? And what was it about? Thanks
Elizabeth says
RTS, the Tom Dolan video was the wind event video to which I provided a link on this thread. I believe I was berated by SR or maybe even you at that point regarding the video, but don’t quote me. It kind of runs together….
Joy and Sonny says
RELY TO:Tex and Joy,
I have some questions regarding your March 19th posting. Are you suggesting that someone was doing a burnout operation from or in the vicinity of the Boulder Springs Ranch? WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET WE ARE STATING THE VIDEO AND PHOTOS SHOWN BY PEOPLE IN THE COMMUNITY DO SHOW THAT AREA ON FIRE EARLIER THAN ANY REPORT OR MEDIA REPORTED YET AND I AM HAVING AN EXPERT CREDIBLE PERSON MAKING SURE THE TIME ON THE PHOTOS AND VIDEOS ARE SPOT ON. YET OUR QUESTION TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT IF THEY READ THIS IS TO ANSWER THAT—HOW COME WE ARE SEEING AREAS ON FIRE IN AREA THE BURNOUT WAS BEING PREPARED FOR A BURN OUT. DID IT HAPPEN? THAT IS MY DIRECT QUESTION TO THE PEOPLE WHO FOUGHT THE FIRE THAT I KNOW COME HERE. I AM BEING SHOWN INFORMATION AND AT TIMES I SAY I WISH ONLY PEOPLE THAT WILL PUT THEIR NAME TO A DOCUMENT COME TO ME BUT I GET IT THAT PEOPLE HAVE TO DO WHAT THEY HAVE TO DO IN THEIR WAY SO IN THAT–OK BUT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE FIRE COMMUNITY TO ACKNOWLEDGE THESE PHOTOS AND VIDEOS DO EXIST OUT THERE AND THEY SHOULD BE TALKING TO THE LOCALS AND EXPLAIN THAT DAY TO THEM—WE WILL DO OUR BEST IN EXPLAINING IT TO THEM BUT WE WILL ALWAYS FEEL WE CAN ONLY SHARE IT AS WE SEE IT—NO CHANGING ANY ACCOUNTS FROM THE DAY OF THE FIRE TO HOW PEOPLE CAME TO OUR LIVES—AND SO ON— I’ve read it several times and can’t seem to pinpoint just wherew you’re talking about.
Also, the “Tim Dolan presentation” Who is the Tim Dolan you’re referring to here?HE DID A WEATHER PRESENTATION RECENTLY IN YARNELL AND HE IS OUT THERE TO EDUCATE THIS FIRE FROM A WEATHER STANDPOINT ONLY—HE HAS ALOT OF FIRE AND WEATHER HISTORY BUT HE TRIED TO SELL ME THAT THE WEATHER WAS THE SEAL ON THIS TRAGEDY AND AS I TELL ALL—I WILL ACCEPT THAT WHEN ALL AREAS HAVE BEEN LOOKED AT AND EXHAUSTED. And what, when, where was his “presentation”? And what was it about? Thanks
Bob Powers says
I would suggest everyone check PATTERN RECOGNITION article over on wild fire today. And read the two comments at the bottom. ” The Dead Zone” unburned fuel a training video about unburned fuel.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
**
** DUANE STEINBRINK – THE FIRST PRESCOTT WILDLAND DIVISION CHIEF
With regards to the (reliable) stories that are ( and have been for some time )
surfacing about this tendency on Granite Mountain’s part to seem to feel the
need to ‘one up’ everyone else around them ( even at their own peril )…
…there is a name that hasn’t surfaced much (yet) that might have had a lot
to do with this ‘mind set’ and/or ‘groupthink’.
Darrell Willis was NOT the first “Wildland Division Chief” for the City of Prescott,
nor was Willis the WDC when the idea to form the Granite Mountain Hotshots
was first presented to the Prescott City Council and the existing ‘PFD Fuels
Crew 7’ applied for ‘training status’ under the name ‘Granite Mountain Hotshots’.
The first “Wildland Division Chief” for the City of Prescott was actually a
fellow named Duane Steinbrink.
Duane is one of those that never had a word to say about Granite Mountain or the
incident for pretty much all of 2013. He was pictured on the left side of Amanda
Marsh ( with Darrell Willis on her right side ) in Amanda’s first public press
conference following the incident… but Duane never had anything to say.
All of a of a sudden ( as of a few weeks ago )… he’s talking to the press.
The article below is basically this UK-based reporter’s attempt to ‘tell the real
story’ ( like Kyle Dickman tried to do last year )… and the story is still based on
a number of false assumptions ( like the lie in the SAIR that everyone thought
Marsh meant a ranch to the north )…
…but there are some interesting parts to this article such as quotes from Duane
Steinbrink about the early ‘culture’ and ‘principles’ behind the Granite Mountain
program and a fascinating (highly detailed) interview with Wade Parker’s parents.
The Telegraph ( Telegraph Media Group – United Kingdom )
Article: How Arizona’s firefighters were outflanked by an inferno
By Mick Brown – 7:00AM GMT 31 Jan 2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10603025/How-Arizonas-firefighters-were-outflanked-by-an-inferno.html
From the article.
________________________________________________________________
‘We’d have a lot of guys who’d come in all excited to get a job ( with Granite
Mountain ), and then when they saw what they had to do they’d just wash out,’
said Duane Steinbrink, a weather-beaten man in his early 60s who, as the
wildland division chief for Prescott, was responsible for assembling the first
Hotshot crew. ‘What made these guys so special was they had it in their mind
that if you were in this crew they were going to be up on the top of the mountain
before anybody else. They had to have better knowledge than any other crew;
be fitter than any other crew; but the number-one priority – you have to be nice,
no rotten apples in the barrel. They loved one another, and they protected one
another. The only time there needed to be any real discipline was if someone
was quitting on them.’
________________________________________________________________
NOTE: It is now a known fact that there was, indeed, a ‘lot’ of ‘quitting on them’
going on with ‘Granite Mountain’ from season to season. I think it’s been
established that the ‘turnover’ rate for GM was higher than average ( for a
Type 1 HS crew ) from season to season… and became critical for 2013 as
they were about to hit the fire season ‘short handed’… and added some ‘quick
hires’ ( Such as McKee and Percin, both total rookies ).
The (possible) real reasons for this (seemingly) high turnover rate still haven’t
been fully revealed.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Followup… another interesting Duane Steinbrick,
Darrell Willis and ‘Eric Marsh’ moment.
The following is the actual moment ( in 2008 ) when
Prescott Wildland Division Chief Duane Steinbrick promoted
Fuels Crew 7 member Eric Marsh to be the Superintendent
of the Granite Mountain Hotshots.
There is a photo of the moment, along with an article.
Darrell Willis is THERE ( in the photo ). He was still just the
Emergency Services Coordinator for the City of Prescott
( hadn’t retired and started double-dipping yet )… but Willis
did the actual ‘swearing in’ for all the new promotions.
NONE of the other 4 firefighters also being ‘promoted’ to
higher level positions within the ‘Granite Mountain Hotshots’
( Lawson, Smith, McCarty, or Kauffman ) stayed with the GM
program for very long after that.
The Prescott Daily Courier – 5/24/2008 9:23:00 PM
Article title: Elite firefighters
http://www.dcourier.com/Main.asp?SectionID=102&ArticleID=55675
From the article…
_____________________________________________________
The Prescott Fire Department held a badge-pinning ceremony
for Granite Mountain Hot Shot crew members who were recently
promoted. Promoted crew members were introduced by Prescott
Fire Department Wildland Division Chief Duane Steinbrink, and
were sworn into their new positions by Prescott Emergency
Services Coordinator Darrel Willis.
Sworn in were, from right to left in the photo,…
Eric Marsh – Superintendent
Aaron Lawson – Captain
Sean Smith – Squad Boss
Dan McCarty – Senior Firefighter
Sean Kauffman – Senior Firefighter.
The Granite Mountain Hot Shot Crew is the first municipal
Type I crew in the nation.
_____________________________________________________
Robert the Second says
WTKTT,
Ah yes, the high turnover rate of the GMHS. Do NOT discount the GMHS pattern of ‘bad decsions with prior good outcomes’ influencing any of the young WFF’s to not return to the GMHS.
Elizabeth says
I have not found ANY empirical proof that GM had a higher turnover rate than that of any other crew. My view is that that is merely a rumor that has gotten legs due to people repeating it.
Do you have data documenting comparisons of turnover rates on Hotshot crews so that we can figure out where GM fell on that spectrum? If so, could you tell us more about the data set and the comparisons?
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to RTS post on March 20, 2014 at 12:00 pm
>> RTS wrote…
>> Ah yes, the high turnover rate of the GMHS.
>> Do NOT discount the GMHS pattern of ‘bad decsions
>> with prior good outcomes’ influencing any of the young
>> WFF’s to not return to the GMHS.
Rest assured… no ‘discounting’ ( or even coupons )
accepted here.
I believe it ALL ‘ties together’.
Example: On the same night in 2008 when Darrell Willis
‘swore in’ Eric Marsh as the (first and only) Superintendent
for the *new* Granite Mountain Hotshots… he also swore
in Aaron Lawson as the first ‘Captain’.
From what I can discover… this was the same sort of
‘dream come true’ for Lawson as it was for Marsh.
Yet… just two seasons in… Lawson quits.
Aaron Lawson is the one who recruited Christopher
MacKenzie onto the GM squad and the only thing he
has ever had to say publicly about the Yarnell
incident was a quick comment about Christopher
being able to ‘lighten up any situation’ when a reporter
caught him at Christopher’s funeral in California.
Right after Lawson went out of his way to recruit
people he knew ( like Christopher ) onto the GM squad…
…Lawson suddenly walks away from GM ( and his own
dream(s)? )
I’d still like to know what happened there ( with Lawson ).
Elizabeth says
My understanding is that Marsh had a “betrayal” by one of his captains, who then left, but I have no idea which captain that would be. What a “betrayal” means is not something I looked into, either, in part because, again, I do not care. (Maybe the guy slept with Marsh’s wife or maybe the guy stole Marsh’s puppy – I neither know nor care. I am only sharing this info b/c, if that betrayer was Lawson, then that would suggest that he did not leave for safety issues.)
It is entirely possible that that betrayer was Lawson, or, for all we know, Lawson might have been the guy who left for a better position. Remember that the Hotshot pay was generally sucky, as Marsh and Willis went back-and-forth on, as I recall.
How ’bout you CALL or e-mail Lawson and ask him directly why he left, rather than engage in speculation about the safety practices of a DEAD guy? (It is kind of unfair to speculate about a dead guy or multiple guys if we include Steed, no?)
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
I offered no ‘speculation’ at all about why
Captain Lawson might have suddenly
left Granite Mountain.
YOU did.
Sleeping with someone’s wife?
Stealing puppies?
Very creative, counselor. VERY creative.
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> How ’bout you CALL or e-mail Lawson
>> and ask him directly why he left,
Got a phone number or an email address?
>> rather than engage in speculation about
>> the safety practices of a DEAD guy?
When that particular DEAD guy appeared
to be violating EVERY established ‘safety’
procedure in the book related to his
profession…
…you damn betcha I’m going to ‘speculate’
about whether that was something he was
in the habit of doing… or NOT.
Elizabeth says
Am I correct that it is generally not viewed as optimally safe to be on TOP of a hill (perhaps at the edge of a box canyon) with a bunch of dry, robust green below you and pretty tall flame lengths, because you risk being killed by the smoke or inhaling super-heated gasses as the fire burns up towards you, even if it never reaches you? Thank you in advance.
Bob Powers says
If you are talking about GM then the answer is NO. They were in black and could have moved to the top of the Mountain at any time, to more black SZ Would they have got smoke and heat yes, but they would have only been uncomfortable and could have moved easily to the top and more black and out of the heat.
They were in black and 150 to 200 ft. from the fire line. Again with 400 Acers of burned area behind them.
Elizabeth–By moving back from the edge they would be safe.
Example–Storm King Mountain Those on top moved back and the survivor that got to the top survived, he got some burns before he reached the top.
Elizabeth says
Bob, “from the edge” of WHAT? The black area was a slope.
Tex and Joy here says
Tex: even if they were at the top as we were then had the smoke and heat headed our way we could immediately drop off the ridge into the black on the Congress side or even the green as that is what we did that day.
Joy: My concern lately is the information and documents being shown to me and I appreciate the viewings deeply and I am sorry to many that I used Y O U to have you speak up yet it takes a name and document to properly assess this not me saying this or that and some of you and you do know who you are and the number is growing—have some important information to give this fire clarity. I asked the questions public because in Tom Dolan’s presentation and many have said over time about this “preparing for burnout”—How come it STOPPED there. What happen to that burnout. We watched you do the preparation from the mountain top and we saw all the activity yet we never saw the fire yet that does not mean it did not happen because the GMHS did a burn in a blinded area that day from our view and its possible with all those boulders but to SEE some of these videos and photos in 2014 shown with expectation I do not share who, what, where—got that but it’s heavy to SEE you have a fire evidence between 3:33-4pm that has not been seen in any report or media and for that it is IMPORTANT for people to put their name and stuff out yet I GET the sensitivity of it beyond just your careers and such—I do understand where you are coming from and again sorry for how some felt a guilt when they read it here and came to me out of guilt. Yet I am glad you came. Jimmy, just waiting on that photo of yours and that will seal this and I know you are okay with me stating your name and thank you for gathering your photo(s) so I can finally show one public. So, if the burn out was done. Why? I mean, that was some squirrelly winds that day? I had kestrel readings and temps. and without weather updates like these men got YOU COULD SEE from Prescott the storm as well the cell from the east—I will always want to SEE some more folks from the AIR coming forward with photos to SHOW US the public how that fire went from heading to Peeples Valley with that late day retardant drop even being laid to the least residential area of the Ustow It/Maughan Ranch Feed Store and then have a fierce fire from the Shrine to Sesame area where I have seen photos of that area on fire between 3:33-4:18pm mark spotted—why is it people can whisper, whisper, whisper around these small towns but no one can speak up and really help YOU all everywhere to get this properly assessed.
SR says
Elizabeth,
Have you looked at a map yet? Have you given thought to SZ geometry at all yet? It is frustrating when you continually make assertions, or post questions that are implicitly assertions, to the effect that GM had no choice but to move…when it seems you either have not looked at a map or have not done some basic research. If you have done those things and just aren’t getting it, maybe explain what your stumbling block is?
At Storm King, those in adequate SZs survived. Had GM stayed put at the YHF and found that they were at the edge of the SZ as the fire was approaching, they could WALK AWAY from the edge of the SZ and from the flames (and corresponding heat) of the fire.
They traded in the very large area they had to work with as a SZ, for in essence immersing themselves for a long period of time in that dry green that you suggest scared them off the ridge.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
……..AND, not that far at all, to hop over the ridge, then DOWN & OUT to safety.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive says
**The comment above, was supposed to go below Bob’s comment below.**
SR says
Said what I was trying to say better and with far fewer words! Thx!
Bob Powers says
The edge or top of the hill was less than 100 yards behind them the Helispot was on top. As marsh said working off the top. Or where Marsh and Frisby met. lots of black. They were above the green by 150 ft. plus, or the hand line. They were safe in my book and not in any danger in the BLACK. There was a top of the mountain with more and more Black.
Bob Powers says
Went back to check original fire map at 1300 topographic map. from there lunch spot to where the fire started 300 Ft. walk you are then on the ridge line and can move back along the top of the fire witch at that time was 1800 acres in size very large SZ take your choice and sit it out.
SR says
Apologies for belaboring the obvious, but also their ability to walk back and forth, and choose where in that very large space they wanted to be at a given point, was basically unencumbered. They were not committed to a small space where the requirements for a SZ might be met for 30 foot flame heights but where 40 foot flame heights, with the flames hot and blowing sideways, would be too much.
I get the sense that Elizabeth is getting contacted directly by people who are putting forth a variety of theories about how Marsh rightly concluded that with the (anticipated) change in weather and extreme fire behavior that the safest thing was to get off the mountain. If that is the case, certainly I understand that a version of one of these theories might be comforting. But, based upon what we do know about Marsh’s own assessment of where GM was, I still have seen nothing to suggest that Marsh even subjectively had a last-minute change of heart about the safety of where he and his crew were.
To further belabor the obvious, WERE Marsh to have had such a subjective change of heart or view, the route he and GM took probably was the most dangerous way down that didn’t involve intentionally walking towards the fire. It would necessarily expose the crew to a sustained period of much higher risk, while they lost the ability to monitor fire behavior, and with the ability to high-tail back up the hill effectively lost once they were far enough down into the bowl. Again, looking at a map, or as RTS rightly points out based on Marsh having had the ability to scout throughout the day, there were other options available if simply getting off of the mountain, but with the least exposure to risk, were the goal.
Bob Powers says
I totally agree. I go back to my first impression what the hell—Why with the fire activity would you move from the burned area SZ. Then walk down into a brush field with no SZ to get to quickly.
Robert the Second says
Elizabeth,
You are NOT correct in your generally optimal view. Hilltops and ridges make excellent places to seek refuge.
I think you need to get some new WFF advisors because the one(s) you have are giving you some fairly bogus, off-the-wall leads, advice, etc. to follow. Your former HS Supterintendent? advisor must have been on the Milk Toast HS Crew to be giving this kind of advice OR not on a Crew at all.
Clear and simple – the GMHS was in a perfectly good, black, solid SZ. Only an idiot would take refuge and/or place a SZ at the top of a chute or chimney or bowl. That’s basic WFF training there.
Marsh had solid black all over the top of the Weaver Mountains. Bob Powers, and TTWARE, and evenTex understand all this good ER and/or SZ quite well, including bailing off the ridgetop down toward Congress. Just review the helicopter photos from the dropbox link that WTKTT posted below.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to RTS post on March 19, 2014 at 5:16 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> Elizabeth,
>> Just review the helicopter photos from the dropbox
>> link that WTKTT posted below.
Reposting part of that message to save the scrolling
and since it’s directly relevant to THIS message thread.
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SAFE BLACK
NEVER EVEN BURNED AT ALL THAT DAY.
Look in the following (public) folder on Mr.
Dougherty’s dropbox site…
A42-Aerial Video and Photos Mayhew
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/7b7asvh6ptdavbr/FixOl2n6pI
269 super highres aerial photos taken on
July 4, 2013, just 4 days after the Yarnell tragedy.
Photos in that folder clearly show an area the size
of a SOCCER field… still totally GREEN and totally
unburned… right in the MIDDLE of the ‘previously burned’ area near the anchor point.
That’s how SAFE that SAFETY ZONE really
was that afternoon.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
This one photo probably shows it best.
An area the size of a SOCCER field
still totally GREEN and totally unburned…
right in the MIDDLE of the ‘previously burned’
area near the anchor point…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/7b7asvh6ptdavbr/FixOl2n6pI#lh:null-IMG_1743.JPG
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Speaking of ‘options’ and things that ‘never even
burned at all’ that afternoon…
…the same Dropbox full of aerial photos above
has at least 60 or 70 highres closeup photos
that show clearer than anything else I’ve seen
how the tops ( and sides ) of the boulder piles
right near the deployment site never burned at all.
Even on July 4, just 3 days after the burnover,
there is CLEARLY still ‘green vegetation’ ( trees,
bushes, etc. ) still showing on both the SIDES
and the TOP of those boulder piles… and HUGE
areas not even showing any ‘scorch marks’.
Those areas were/are just a few hundred feet
( not yards ) away from the deployment site.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Followup to the post above about the huge
area ( near the anchor point ) in the middle of
the already cold ‘safe’ black that remained totally
UNBURNED that day, even after the firestorm.
The following answers two questions about it…
1) How far away was it from a KNOWN point in
the already cold-safe black, such as, the spot
where Frisby and Brown met with Marsh and
Steed for that first ‘face to face’.
2) How LARGE was that ‘unburned’ area, really?,
and how did it compare with the actual size
of the ‘bomb-proof’ Boulder Springs Ranch
main clearing itself?
** ACTUAL LOCATION AND DIMENSIONS OF
** THE UNBURNED AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF
** THE ALREADY SAFE BLACK
The actual spot where the Blue Ridge UTV Ranger
stopped for 33 minutes while Frisby and Brown
first met with Marsh and Steed up in the already
cold ‘safe black’ that day is here ( according to
Brown’s GPS unit )…
34.226977, -112.789528
The distance from that ‘meeting location’ walking
NORTH on the two-track road to the SOUTH side
of the totally unburned area in the middle of the
safe black was only… 702 feet. ( 2 NFL football
fields + end zones = 720 feet ).
So how BIG was that unburned area, really?
NOTE: 1 acre = 43,560 square foot
UNBURNED AREA COORDINATES
NE corner – 34.228758, -112.791030
SE corner – 34.228212, -112.790816
SW corner – 34.227924, -112.791336
NW corner – 34.228554, -112.791422
UNBURNED AREA SIDES ( FOOTAGE )
NE corner to SE corner = 210.021 feet
SE corner to SW corner = 188.714 feet
SW corner to NW corner = 237.105 feet
NW corner to NE corner = 142.253 feet
Total square footage of the unburned area inside
the ‘safe black’ = 29,897.06 feet ( 0.68 acres )
That’s almost 2/3 the size ( 65 percent ) of the
entire ‘bomb-proof’ Boulder Springs Ranch main
clearing.
BOULDER SPRINGS RANCH
MAIN CLEARING CORNERS
NE – 34.219700, -112.770710
SE – 34.218600, -112.770812
SW – 34.218698, -112.771520
NW – 34.219677, -112.771509
BOULDER SPRINGS RANCH
MAIN CLEARING SIDES ( FOOTAGE )
NE corner to SE corner = 399.719 feet
SE corner to SW corner = 215.827 feet
SW corner to NW corner = 358.122 feet
NW corner to NE corner = 251.127 feet
Total square footage of Boulder Springs
Ranch main clearing = 46,611.63 ( 1.001 acres ).
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
**
** KORI KIRKPATRICK TALKS ABOUT ERIC MARSH
Kori Kirkpatrick, Eric Marsh’s former wife, has never really spoken in public
since the Yarnell incident… but she is quoted in an article that appeared
last week in the Prescott Daily Courier.
The ‘Arizona Wildfire Academy’ ( AWA ) took place last week in Prescott,
( as it does each year ), with a near-record 708 students from 29 different
states attending the classes this year.
Kori Kirkpatrick and Eric Marsh ( and Don Howard, Darrell Willis and others )
started this ‘Arizona Widlfire Academy’ in Prescott.
Kirkpatrick herself is ‘quoted’ in this article about last week’s AWA, and
she mentions her former-husband, Eric Marsh.
Life-or-death lessons: Hotshots were vital to Wildfire Academy
By Joanna Dodder Nellans – 3/7/2014 6:00:00 AM
The Prescott Daily Courier
http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubsectionID=1&ArticleID=129272
From the article…
_________________________________________________________________
After talking about the idea of a statewide wildland firefighting academy for
a few years, Don Howard was determined to make it a reality when the
Rodeo-Chediski wildfire struck in 2002 and became the largest wildfire
in Arizona’s history.
Organizers chose Kori Kirkpatrick as the academy’s first coordinator.
Working on a shoestring budget, she conducted business at home with the
frequent help of her husband Eric Marsh. He had landed a job on the Prescott
Fire Department’s new fuels mitigation crew and would go on to help create
the Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew as its first and only superintendent.
“Eric’s passion and contribution to the academy was huge, just huge,” Kirkpatrick said. He also taught the basic wildland firefighting class for several years and later taught advanced courses.
“It was all about teaching them how to do it right, how to do it safely and come home at night,” Kirkpatrick added. She left the academy coordinator position after five years, about the same time she and Marsh divorced.
Tony Sciacca took over the Arizona Wildfire Academy coordinator position.
_________________________________________________________________
NOTE: Tony Sciacca was the ‘line safety officer’ who was ‘clocked in’ and
fully on-duty at the Yarnell Hill Fire as early as 1500 ( 3:00 PM ) on
June 30, 2013. ( One hour and forty minutes before the deployment ).
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Followup…
Also ( as usual )… there was the annual Arizona Wildfire
Academy ‘banquet’ at the Prescott Resort last week.
Brendan McDonough was there ( along with Eric’s wife
Amanda ) to accept the annual “Herb McElwee” loyalty
award on behalf of Eric Marsh and the Granite Mountain
Hotshots.
Gary Cordes was also there to receive his AWA “Firefighter
of the Year” award for ‘rescuing residents’ at the Yarnell Fire.
Article: Hotshots Boost Wildfire Academy Banquet
Donations To An All-time High
By Joanna Dodder Nellans – 3/13/2014 6:00:00 AM
The Prescott Daily Courier
http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=129485&TM=60610.07
From the article…
_____________________________________________________
The academy’s Firefighter of the Year award went to Central Yavapai Fire District Training Officer Gary Cordes for helping to rescue Yarnell residents from the same Yarnell Hill wildfire June 30 that killed 19 of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. He was the Yarnell structure group supervisor on the blaze, and said he shared the award with others who helped that day.
The banquet opened with a half-hour memorial service for the 36 U.S. wildland firefighters who died in the line of duty in 2013
( including the 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots ). It included an honor guard, reading of the names of the fallen, and the playing of Taps.
Eric Marsh’s wife Amanda and the lone surviving Granite Mountain Hotshot, Brendan McDonough, accepted the 2nd annual Herb McElwee (loyalty) award for all 20 of the Granite Mountain
Hotshots.
“I want to say thank you to this group for loving Eric so much,” Amanda Marsh told the crowd.
“It’s been a great honor to be called a Hotshot,” added McDonough, who now has a job helping other wildland firefighters with PTSD. “Thank you, God bless your families this season and kick some (butt).”
_____________________________________________________
mike says
This current thread has got to be absolutely brutal for the families to read or hear, but if it is the truth, it is what it is. Right now, I doubt many would agree with what has been laid out, but in time some might come to accept it. And then they may wonder why more was not done and why their loved one had to die.
So before we hand out kudos and declare victory, I think a question needs to be asked. If what brought to light is true and this “could be seen from a mile away”, why did the fire community allow him to continue in his job and lead a crew? Safety is the #1 priority of the wildland community and everyone is supposed to come home, but a man who was recklessly and serially violating basic safety principles was allowed to lead 19 men. And then get 18 of them killed. I understand about the counseling, which is a good first step, but apparently people knew he would not listen and it wasn’t working. When he continued to do this, maybe some IC should have sent his tail home to Prescott with a very stern note. After all, he led a hotshot crew for 4 years plus. People will say “it wasn’t my job, it wasn’t my crew” and I agree it wasn’t really the place of the other crew bosses to deal with. But there were a lot of others who could have. And 18 good men who didn’t have to die is a pretty steep price for inaction.
Maybe the most important lessons learned from this tragedy will have nothing to do with what took place on Yarnell Hill on June 30, 2013.
Robert the Second says
Mike,
I assure you what’s being posted here is the truth, and yes, it is what it is. And the truth is often very difficult for many to accept, especially when it involves those close to you. I declare no victory here, and I am quite demure to the kudos. I will always press for the truth, especially in WFF fatalities such as the YHF.
I believe it was Winston Churchill that said “The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”
As I posted way back when here, I’m very angry about what happened as are many other WFF supervisors, because it was totally, unequivocally avoidable. I am mad at those responsible and also very sad for the familes, friends, and loved ones of those that died June 30th. We did what we could as peers to head this off, and some may have gone to Marsh’s supervisor(s) with these concerns. But in the long run, it didn’t matter.
But remember, that those GMHS knew, or should have known, what they were doing (or about to do) that day was absolutely wrong, based on the tried-and-trued WFF ‘Rules.’ And yet they apparently conceded to their actions in spite of everything they knew to the contrary. I contend that Groupthink in one form or another was alive and well that day and contributed to the fatal outcome. And this is listed in the IRPG as one of the Hazardous Attitudes in the Leadership section.
Whenever there are ‘talking points’ THEY are trying to hide something. I have asked those in the Public (Dis)information realm how long they are going to continue to deny that Marsh did anything wrong which resulted in the June 30th tragedy. The answers are usually ‘it’s going to take some time.’ Really?
mike says
RTS – I think you are a straight shooter and I give great weight to what you have to say. But, given Marsh’s irresponsible nature, the deaths were only preventable if he was corrected or removed. If he couldn’t be corrected, he needed to be removed. The argument might be made that could not be done. The point is it should have. What is going to happen when the next Eric Marsh comes along?
Gary Olsen has already expounded on how hotshot supers are looked on as near deities by their crews. You do what they say. And several of the crew were rookies, in fact I think it was the first fire for one. Yes the squad bosses and Steed should have spoken up, much harder for the new guys.
As I said above, eventually some families might not agree that all was done. But, in the end, nothing will bring those men back. It is for the next time that I think this situation deserves a very hard look.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to mike post on March 17, 2014 at 10:26 pm
>> mike said…
>> It is for the next time that I think this situation
>> deserves a very hard look.
No question. The HARDEST ‘look’ possible.
>> mike also said…
>> And several of the crew were rookies, in fact I
>> think it was the first fire for one.
You may be referring to 21 year old Grant McKee.
It wasn’t his ‘first fire’… but definitely his ‘first
season’ with GM and the first time he’d done
anything of the sort.
Robert Caldwell was Grant’s cousin and got him
onto the GM crew for the 2013 season when
GM ended up short some people right before the
start of the fire season.
Grant only joined GM in April… just 3 months
before the tragedy.
Grant had NO intentions of becoming a career
WFF person. He was only helping out for this
one season, while they were short, and then
he was going to continue to pursue his real
passion of becoming an EMT.
mike says
I checked, it was John Percin’s 2nd fire with the GMHS (he was so new he was not even in the tree picture from the Doce fire).
Tex and Joy here says
Mike, if you are stating a history account of Marsh; appreciated- fine. Yet on this fire there is no evidence shown YET publicly that Marsh directed Steed and crew to go that way and it there is no proof public YET that even shows Marsh was with the crew or was first there or last. Everyone needs to understand there is no proof publicly shown yet but that does not mean there is not some coming. We are waiting right this second to receive 3 sets of photos as we type this on the fire between 3-5pm. More folks seem to want to come to us privately and we accept that yet we always encourage the IMPORTANCE to putting the documentation with the original sourced names not us posting their accounts. I know as time people are sharing to us because the men dying and many peoples’ lives were affected from that weekend and our character is intact as reliable and we do not gossip and we are straight shooters seeking the truth. I want it to be known Mike anyone can say Marsh was this or that on prior fires— wonderful but no one yet can publicly with proof state Marsh’s actions or Steed’s or the fire managements- and in His time the truth will happen—I think many people who have read this page have been pleased there is a “place to go” to either read or comment. This has helped many heal and we appreciate EVERYONE on here.
Bob Powers says
I am sorry Joy I wish it were different but Marsh and the crews actions and lake of giving information clear and precise along with breaking every rule in the book fits what we are now being told, and I believe answers the WHY they moved and went down into unburned fuel. It is every Fire Supervisors night mare to have a crew working outside the rules and hiding or canceling there decisions. Past issues explained a lot about that day. I morn the loss of all 19 the decisions made that day cost them there lives and nothing can change that.
Tex and Joy here says
Bob Powers-
you coming to Arizona? I will show you some of the folks we have seen photos from—some; a lot are sensitive on topic and do not want to see anyone—and you will see this may not be a label of saying it was the men’s’ final decision to go in the boxed canyon and maybe something not yet brought out—Mike spoke about Marsh’s history but that would be like that silly man Shaun McKinnon who was to work on some retractions to have family concerns to never hearing from again almost 4 months later. He said things about Tex (Sonny) as well as he narrated his own account of our day that day- we never came from Congress and never said that. Also the article was on GMHS so why even talk about Tex being a bourbon hound. Geez, human factor and human perceptions on facts can become narrative at times and all I am stating is HELL YES it is way ODD from a person who hiked it for almost a decade as to WHY did these men even GO THAT WAY versus STAY IN THE BLACK but there may be an element not yet presented so let us not make a judgment of their actions until all facts are presented. I can share as the librarian here in town can too—there is a lot of folks who will come to me or some to vent but will not go public. We need to publicly piece this puzzle and in His time it will-
I understand EVERY point you make from a firefighter stand but keep in mind the report and media has collaborated and gathered and narrated and have not gave it real and raw YET—in due time…many people will not let this be brushed under the rug and MANY people have no agendas too.
Bob Powers says
Tex thanks for the invite. I live in southern Idaho. and at 70 my knees would play hell with that kind of hike. I use my horses to take me to the high country and an occasional ATV ride. I rely on RTS an old friend to keep me up on what he has seen and learned. It is never easy to accept that your loved ones made mistakes but it will come in time.
Robert the Second says
Tex and Joy,
I suggest you go back to RTS’ original March 15 and 16 posts and that may help to better understand where Mike is coming from.
WFF says
I take issue with Safety being the number one priority. It is the number one proiroty at the ground level, but for others it is a disclaimer to avoid liability. We all know that. There are exceptions at each level, but there are plenty examples. I know of a IHC sup right now that has recieved letters from T-1 IC about his conduct and has accousted at least one crewmeber in a drunkin rage and retained his position. Its common knowledge on his forest and in the R3 IHC world. I had someone who worked for me mention it a month ago. I was amazed, but I shouldn’t have been, I’ve known this man and he is a hothead. I have worked with and for teams that have personnel in positions because of longevity or the buddy system who were making strateigc and tactical decisions. And we knew they weren’t strong firefighters. Being supprised that this could have taken place or even be posible means we’ve been fooling ourselves. I, also ,know what happens when you stand up for what is right, I’ve watched people loose careers for having integrity. Everyone of us knows this, I doubt anyone wanted this possibility to be possible. But we have all seen this kind of thing. I argued that there maybe no smoking gun and hoped that was right. I’m greatly saddened for everyone that this could be true.
Robert the Second says
WFF,
I believe I know of the Superintendent you refer to here. If it’s the same one, and I think it is, he practices ‘Chaos Theory.” As WFF, we are supposed to make order and organization from chaos, not the other way around. I and others consider him a Watch Out.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to mike post on March 17, 2014 at 9:09 pm
>> mike said…
>> This current thread has got to be absolutely brutal for the
>> families to read or hear, but if it is the truth, it is what it is.
Agreed.
There is ( at this time ) no reason to doubt any of the new information that RTS has posted… and that is really, really sad.
>> mike also said…
>> Right now, I doubt many would agree with what has been
>> laid out, but in time some might come to accept it.
Some will NEVER accept that there may have been a *known*
pattern of willful ‘reckless endangerment’ being practiced by an
employee of a municipal fire department ( and being imposed on
part-time, low-paid, seasonal employees ) which *may* be
the primary reason 19 good men died.
And rightly so.
If that is the truth… it IS, in fact, UNACCEPTABLE behavior,
and if there is ANYTHING similar going on ANYWHERE else
in Hotshot crews or the WFF business at large… it needs to be
discovered and SHUT DOWN… RIGHT NOW… before more
good men die.
>> they may wonder why more was not done and why their
>> loved one had to die.
Yes, they may… and rightly so.
>> mike also wrote…
>> So before we hand out kudos and declare victory…
I still think RTS deserves at least simple ‘thanks’ for ‘sticking
with it’ AND having the courage to share information…
…but there is no ‘victory’ here.
There never will be.
There will only ever be the truth, as best as it can be known.
>> mike also wrote…
>> I think a question needs to be asked. If what brought to light
>> is true and this “could be seen from a mile away”, why did the
>> fire community allow him to continue in his job and lead
>> a crew?
Because (obviously) the WFF ‘fire community’ ( and the
‘culture’ itself ) is NOT ( yet ) designed to handle this sort
of thing like other commonn workplace environments.
I have worked construction. Many years.
There were many (similar) times when a certain crew was
trying to make a ‘name’ for themselves and would do reckless
things on the job-site trying to ‘prove’ themselves. Even after
they became ‘accepted’ and would get regular work… the
pattern was already set by the crew boss. They continued
to do risky, out-of-bounds things and remained a danger to
themselves and anyone working with them.
The ‘industry’ had a way to handle that.
We ( the other crews ) filed written complaints to the area
contracting agencies and said that if some action was not
taken we would refuse to work any job site they were working.
That fixed it.
That crew was notified of the complaints…. told they would
no longer get any work if they didn’t ‘get safe’… so they did.
If that process is NOT as easily available to the the WFF
industry… then it’s time it was implemented.
>> mike also wrote
>> Safety is the #1 priority of the wildland community and
>> everyone is supposed to come home, but a man who was
>> recklessly and serially violating basic safety principles was
>> allowed to lead 19 men. And then get 18 of them killed.
>> I understand about the counseling, which is a good first step,
>> but apparently people knew he would not listen and it wasn’t
>> working.
If that wasn’t working… then more action was needed.
See above. Refusal to work fires with them would have
been the next step.
>> mike also wrote…
>> When he continued to do this, maybe some IC should have
>> sent his tail home to Prescott with a very stern note.
Well… at the MOMENT… we don’t actually *know* whether
that DID happen… or not. Maybe it did ( or something similar like
‘performance evaluations/concerns’ being sent on a back-channel
to the Prescott Wildland Division Chief ).
There is much more to learn here.
>> mike also wrote…
>> After all, he led a hotshot crew for 4 years plus. People will
>> say “it wasn’t my job, it wasn’t my crew” and I agree it wasn’t
>> really the place of the other crew bosses to deal with.
That is EXACTLY what ( most ) of their co-workers will say
( and have, indeed, already said so ).
>> But there were a lot of others who could have. And 18 good
>> men who didn’t have to die is a pretty steep price for inaction.
Yes, it is.
See above. The WFF industry needs to take a hard look at
itself at this point.
>> mike also said…
>> Maybe the most important lessons learned from this tragedy
>> will have nothing to do with what took place on Yarnell Hill
>> on June 30, 2013.
I don’t think the WFF ‘business’ is ever going to lose the
more-than-quasi military culture coupled with almost the
same ‘rivalry’ culture as professional sports teams enjoy
( a very BAD combination of ‘cultures’ )…
…but if it is discovered that this kind of *locker room talk* was
NOT making it up to management so they even had a chance
to address what amounts to an (ongoing?) DANGEROUS and
LIFE-THREATENING situation for some of the innocent
‘players’ in ‘the game’…
…that needs to be FIXED toot-sweet.
mike says
I used “accept” meaning believing it was the truth, not saying it was alright. Other than that, all I can say is AMEN.
I have got to believe that if GM had ever got sent home early from a fire due to unsafe practices, we would know about it by now. But then again, maybe not???
Bob Powers says
I would first hope and believe had GM been an FS crew I do not believe that Marsh’s behavior would have lasted as long as it did. The internal grape vine would have caught up with him. I have seen that happen in the past especially with in Regions. Superintendents talk to there supervisors who talk to other supervisors and things change internally. Being a non federal crew stopped that chain. I tend to believe that Willis as there supervisor had to have known some of the problems, just my guess.
This in no way reflects on my hart felt sadness for the deaths of all and my sorrow for the families and friends of those lost.
It was preventable and should have been dealt with inside or outside the crew, That is the real problem.
Bob Powers says
The other problem is that Steed must have bought into the process through his training under Marsh. No one willing to challenge it when all there lives were at stake. Ingrained behavior of the entire crew that is the sad part.
Gary Olson says
I have invested so much time in this thread, so I guess I owe it a little more than just unilaterally declaring victory and going home. So here it is…just my opinion on this opinion blog.
Every investigator has to make a judgment call(s) in the course of an investigation right or wrong…and then let the chips fall where they may. Either the U.S. Attorney’s Office takes the case or they don’t, either the opposing counsel cuts a deal or they don’t, and then either the jury finds them guilty or they don’t.
And in this case, we don’t have the ability to gather our own facts, conduct our own interviews (most importantly), examine the evidence we collected first hand, and in general conduct an independent investigation, so we are pretty limited…so I don’t think this investigation is ever going to get any better.
Bob Powers credentials have clearly been established beyond reproach. I believe Bob Powers when he has repeatedly vouched for RTS and that he trained him and they worked together for years. And I believe RTS works on or very near the Prescott National Forest and he may still a hotshot and may have been on the hotshot crew boss staff ride or is very close to the hotshots who were. For example, RTS has a lot of insider information regarding past fires on the Prescott National Forest and the past actions of Division Z (Marquez).
I happen to believe RTS about Eric Marsh and his reckless actions, RTS has had the same theme since the very beginning, he just finally gave up the particulars for whatever reason and it fits the facts in my opinion. I believe RTS when he says the group of hotshot superintendents collectively condemned Eric Marsh’s past behavior and collectively believe Eric Marsh deliberately took such a reckless and knowingly led his crew into harm’s way due to this arrogance, stubbornness, and his desire to one-up everyone else (Blue Ridge this time) and show he had the best hotshot crew.
I also think all of the information about the crews future being on the line and their need to prove their worth in helping to evacuate Yarnell and to engage in structure (if possible) fed into his decision to try and “beat the train.”
And I think Darrell Willis knew all about Eric Marsh’s past tactics and behavior and he not only approved of them, but he encouraged Eric to do those things to prove how good the Granite Mountain Hotshots were on a regular basis to enhance his reputation the glory of the Prescott Fire Department.
Like I said in my post, I think there are some more blanks that can be filled in on some of the details. And I still think Darrell Willis strongly suggested to Eric Marsh he should take the assignment for all of the previous reasons named, but in the end, it was Eric Marsh’s call and his apparent history of reckless behavior and taking excessive risk caught up with him. And as a result, he killed himself and his crew.
I think I have stood by and defended Eric Marsh as much or more so than anyone else, but I have to accept the facts. Eric Marsh was in charge of the Granite Mountain Hotshots either as Division A Supervisor or still acting as the crew boss even though Jesse Steed was officially in that job.
I just happen to now believe, based on my experience, training, and education and the information that has been presented in this thread that the answer to “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots die?” is because Eric Marsh killed them with his rash, impulsive, arrogant, and reckless decision to break almost all of the rules at the same time. But…I can still mourn the loss of his life.
Finally, I think we can all agree that I never would have been investigating this case from the beginning. I am to emotionally involved, far from objective, and I reached my own conclusions in the beginning after listening to Darrell Willis say so many stupid things (in my opinion).
I am going to continue to monitor this thread as time allows and I hope I am eventually proven wrong and there are other ways found to “explain the inexplicable.”
Robert the Second says
Here’s some revelations on GMHS habits regarding radio communications and stealth GMHS movements from a former GMHS.
The former GMHS said that Marsh was adamant about a form of ‘under-the-radar’ radio procedure. He said that Marsh wanted only 3-4 radios to be scanning the TAC channel(s) with only those guys speaking on TAC. All others were to be scanning and talking ONLY on the Crew Net.
Regarding the stealth movements. he said that Marsh did not want anyone (overhead) to know what they were doing or where they were. Marsh made a MAJOR TACTICAL MOVEMENT on June 30th when they all abandoned their perfectly good SZ and never really informed anyone outright. It was always on the sly, partial truths, with little or no details.
Which leads to their (Marsh) June 30th disengenuous (coy) behavior and radio transmissions actions, intentions, location(s), and the like. I allege that Marsh was never forthright that day on any of these subjects.
Consider the radio transmissions with Air Attack and/or Bravo 33. Even though it seemed obvious to me that Marsh wanted them to act as a lookout for the GMHS and/or seek advice and counsel from them, he never once SPECIFICALLY revealed their exact location(s) with a mirror flash or specific details. You never heard things like “do you have my flash” or “do you see me on the ridgetop out your right door, waving my shovel with the pink flagging”?
On June 30th, the radio transmissions we heard were things like “picking our way through the black” or “travelling down our Escape Route” or “coming off the top” or the like. Even when they were in the bowl preparing their alleged SZ, the radio transmissions are pretty vague and lacking detailed information. However, Fire Order #7 states to “maintain prompt communication with your … supervisor, and adjoing forces.” Clearly, Marsh did NOT do this. It’s as if Marsh and the GMHS had their own ‘VERSION(S)” of the ‘The WFF Rules.’
Bad decisions with prior good outcomes. As Risk Management speaker Gordon Graham says, “What’s predictable is preventable.” The fatalities on June 30th were both predictable and preventable.
SR says
RTS, regarding stealth movements, are you, or the former GMHS, stating that there were past episodes of the crew needing to NOT discuss where they’d been or what they’d done, sort of like not ever having gone over the border in a different context? Are you saying this was an insular pattern that was an expected mode of [non] communication for the whole crew?
Robert the Second says
SR,
Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Bad decisions with prior good outcomes. This was NOT the first and only time. I allege that this was GMHS (Marsh) Standard Operating Procedure.
WFF says
You know I want to make a point here, we worked long and hard to get crew freqs. Not everyone uses their crew freq for sneaking around or getting away with things. I can remember having freqs. that weren’t authorized, but they provided a level of safety for everyone by not having everyday crew ops on the TAC.
I knew they could have stayed in the black and it was obvious they could have moved through the black I was really just hoping it was bad judgement. This is going to be real hard on a few people. Life is a long time to carry a reputation you inherit. Bad news!
Bob Powers says
I will state here for all. RTS has spent a lot of time talking to people and putting together what he has now released. Most of this information is coming from current employees and if they were known they would be in personal problems with the FS.
I know RTS and his real name and I will personally vouch for his truth and sincerity in what he has said. He as well could at this time lose his job if his real name were released. Accept what has been released for now and hopefully more will step forward with additional information. Maybe the WHY is at least clearer now, It is not what any WFF wanted to hear and should be addressed Thru out the Country.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Robert the Second post on March 17, 2014 at 10:36 am
>> RTS said
>> The former GMHS said that Marsh was adamant about a
>> form of ‘under-the-radar’ radio procedure.
Regardless of ANY ‘past behavior’… the evidence record for
June 30 certainly backs this up. I know that being ‘concise’ on
the busy ‘shared’ channels is considered SOP and ‘a virtue’…
but that’s not the simple explanation for what was happening on
June 30 with regards to Marsh’s communications.
Almost every one of Marsh’s communications on the ‘open’
channels on that day that we can now hear with our own ears
had this mysterious ‘obtuse’ aspect associated with it. Minimal
information, dodging direct questions, refusing to be specific,
etc. etc.
>> RTS also said…
>> Which leads to their (Marsh) June 30th disengenuous (coy)
>> behavior and radio transmissions actions, intentions,
>> location(s), and the like. I allege that Marsh was never
>> forthright that day on any of these subjects.
Again… the actual evidence record for June 30 supports this.
If you compare the snippets of conversation that we can hear
captured in the MacKenzie video ( when Marsh thought it
was ‘just us’ and nobody was listening or would EVER hear
that conversation ) it’s perfectly obvious that Marsh had a
much different ‘conversational’ style of talking over the radio
when he didn’t think command or OPS was listening than
he did when talking to directly to command/OPS.
Now I know that’s probably true of most field supervisors
( having a more terse speaking style on command channels
versus private channels )… but I’m just pointing out that in
Marsh’s case… the *difference* was *dramatic* and this is
perfectly obvious from even the short moments captured by
Christopher MacKenzie.
People have used the term ‘freelancer’ to describe the kind
of behavior we were seeing from Marsh that day.
I think that IS, in fact, how he approached his job.
Once again… kudos to RTS for the willingness to share
information that might help shed more light on the events
and circumstances that led to the tragedy of June 30, 2013.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Robert the Second post on March 17, 2014 at 12:47 pm
>> On March 17, 2014 at 12:47 pm, RTS said…
>>
>> SR, Spot-on regarding the GMHS ‘options.’ They were ‘not
>> forced to move’ as some have claimed. Fire behavior and/or
>> the threat of fire behavior wasn’t the deciding factor for
>> GMHS to move. The “GM had no choice” assertion holds
>> no water. They had several good, safe options THROUGH
>> THE BLACK from their perfectly good SZ. BRHS said they
>> could have walked in good black all the way from their
>> SZ to Yarnell, no problem.
And, indeed, did that very thing ( in the opposite direction )
less than 60 minutes after the burnover at the deployment
site. They were on UTV’s… but perfectly safe ‘out there’
near the original anchor point and all the way out there
vai the Sesame Trail two-track ( that GM walked in on
that morning ).
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
RTS… apologies… that comment above was NOT
supposed to appear on THIS thread… it was a response
to what you said yesterday on the other SAFE BLACK
thread down below. I think WordPress is starting to
go haywire again, or something.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
As long as that SAFE BLACK comment appeared
up here instead of down where it was originally
posted… here is the ‘followup’ that never posted
at all.
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SAFE BLACK
NEVER BURNED AT ALL THAT DAY.
Look in the following (public) folder on Mr.
Dougherty’s dropbox site…
A42-Aerial Video and Photos Mayhew
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/7b7asvh6ptdavbr/FixOl2n6pI
269 super highres aerial photos taken on
July 4, 2013, just 4 days after the Yarnell tragedy.
Photos in that folder clearly show an area the size
of a SOCCER field… still totally GREEN and totally
unburned… right in the MIDDLE of the ‘previously burned’ area near the anchor point.
That’s how SAFE that SAFETY ZONE really
was that afternoon.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Perhaps this one photo shows it best…
An area the size of a SOCCER field
still totally GREEN and totally unburned…
right in the MIDDLE of the ‘previously burned’
area near the anchor point…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/7b7asvh6ptdavbr/FixOl2n6pI#lh:null-IMG_1743.JPG
SR says
The apparent culture of secrecy surrounding even crew movements is, as already noted by many, very troubling.
Was there any suggestion that, along with this, some crew movements suggested trouble reading maps? Where the same decision, even if it had been one other superintendents would have disagreed with and counseled him against, could have been carried out without the same muss and fuss through a better route choice? A culture of secrecy is obviously not compatible with a strong safety culture to begin with, but I don’t believe a full explanation for some of the decisions at YHF.
IF a map had been consulted and Marsh therefore understood that he was taking the crew on a long, slow slog through dense brush, it should have been apparent that this would take roughly an hour or more and not get him where he wanted in a timely fashion, anyway. Likewise, GM’s lookout was in a public position earlier in the day, so there was no secrecy there, but also in my view no thought given to how he got out of there if needed.
Marsh was old enough that he shouldn’t have been in the situation of some young adults who just rely on phone navigation for everything and literally aren’t map-literate. And, perhaps he read maps just fine. But, since to me going into that bowl was such a big “does not compute,” that even if pulled off safely wouldn’t have put GM in town soon enough, it’s worth asking the question.
Robert the Second says
SR,
I think the map argument is moot and really a non-issue. For one, maps are rare in the intitial stages of almost every fire, and so one must rely on downloaded maps and the like, and scouting. One did not need a map in this case. One needed to SCOUT the area for alternate routes, well covered in LCES, Fire Orders, and Watch Outs (The WFF Rules).
SR says
I hear you, though if there is cell reception downloading maps takes only a few seconds. Likewise, you’re completely right that even visually, the route they chose should have on appearances not been a good choice. I guess what I am addressing when I ask if there was an issue with map-reading is the seeming lack of awareness about surroundings and also time. And, it’s noteworthy to me that even afterwards, many commenters seem to make abstract statements that ignore basic facts about location, topography, and time that either a map, or basic knowledge of the area, should have screaming out at them.
You’re right that Marsh had all day to scout, and apparently did so…and still didn’t seem to have awareness of topography and vegetation. On reflection my asking about maps is likely just me grasping at straws to see if there is an “easier” answer to why that specific choice of route was made.
Robert the Second says
SR,
This was Marsh’s and the GMHS’ turf, so-to-speak. This was basically in their backyard. They knew or should have known better.
Notwithstanding their lack of scouting (watch Out #1), it’s as if Watch Out #4 also applied to them that day as well, on their own turf!
“Unfamiliar with weather and local factors influencing fire behavior.”
Gary Olson says
And just in case anyone out there is cyber space is wondering, this was how interviewing is done in the real world (FLETC – Interrogation 101). Establish rapport, show your ass if necessary, and talk long enough for someone to finally tell you the truth. Go home.
Gary Olson says
Actually…I should have said, “Go home, write it up (or preferably have a subordinate write it up), submit it for prosecution, and get ready for the next one, case closed.”
WFF says
Really that’s what you’ve got your going to try to bait me. Come on man with all the history you’ve got you should be better than that.
Gary Olson says
Nope, that’s all I got. There are some good reasons why Public Safety employees have mandatory retirement. And, I just happen to believe RTS…based in large part on Bob Powers vouching for him, even though I don’t know who he is.
Gary Olson says
Well RTS…I guess you have answered the big question, “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots die.” There are probably some more blanks to be filled in by WTKTT’s detailed analysis and Elizabeth’s study of the FOIA material she has, but I guess you have answered the big question.
My questions regarding who knew what, and when were rhetorical. I was trying to point out the obvious. If Eric Marsh’s flagrant, (and it sounds like he was way over the line on a regular basis) safety violations were so well known, then his supervisor MUST have known and he MUST have approved of Marsh’s actions.
As far as I know, everything I did as a hotshot crew boss on a fire made it back to my home forest and my supervisor one way or the other…and very quickly. That information always got home before I did.
Gary Olson says
RTS, I should also say, “thank you”, for telling those of us who have been participating in this discussion what a lot of people obviously already knew, and have known since June 1, 2013.
I have always said it would take a “Source of Information” from the inside to tell us what happened.
Bob Powers says
And that would be one of the reasons for the FS gag order.
at least in part.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
I’d also like to thank RTS for his ongoing help in this discussion.
Regardless of where the discussion heads following the latest
comment(s)… it’s worth it to take a moment and acknowledge
his continuing support of this ongoing discussion and his
willingness to share information. Kudos.
I suppose the latest comment ( and what appear to be a
number of incidents to support it ) sheds even more light
on some of the mysterious comments from Darrell Willis
to Marsh in his employee evaluation just 57 days before
the tragedy in Yarnell.
I believe one of these days ( sooner rather than later? ) Darell
Willis ( Wildland Division Chief for Prescott FD ) is going to
have to elaborate on questions in the “WHAT did he know…
and WHEN did he know it” category.
I don’t know which would be worse…
1) That the Wildland Division Chief supervising GM was
perfectly aware of some patterns of risky behavior on the
part of people he had charge of and did little ( or nothing )
to try and correct the behavior ( vague comments in a
once-a-year employee evaluation don’t count )…
2) OR… such risky behavior was well known to other WFF
supervisors but the PFD Wildland Division Chief was
NOT, himself, aware of it.
Robert the Second says
I fully expected to get comments on my post regarding: ““Superintendents made comments such as this: ‘This was the final, fatal link in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes. We saw this coming for years.” common knowledge that Eric Marsh made well known “prior bad decisions with good outcomes” we all knew it was going to happen.”
Gary Olsen and others asked: “Who knew that? When did they know about it? What exactly did they know? What did they do to correct it? What did they do to stop it? Who did they tell about it?”
Who knew this? Many HS Superintendents from many Regions on many fires over several years knew this. We knew that Marsh took unnecessary chances and risks AND GOT AWAY WITH THEM again and again and again. What did we do about it? We counselled him about it, like WTF are you thinking? And WTF are you doing here? And you know better than this, so do it the right way, the safe way. Who did we tell? Using ‘peer pressure’ we told Marsh on several (most) occasions and of course, we told each other. Surely, some did not interact with him and just chocked it up to, whatever. Marsh seemed to simply not be willing to listen to others, his peers, and especially Senior HS Superintendents. I believe that many (most) WFF supervisors aware of this behavior did the best they could to deal with it, but it was ultimately it up to Marsh.
Marsh never ‘worked his way up’ on a HS Crew, but instead was a ‘filler’ on Crews while working on Engines. This MAY have had something to do with all this, not understanding the HS Crew ethic and all.
I believe I posted earlier somewhere that at least two Superintendents felt that he was ‘always trying to one-up you.’ This was also verified by a former GMHS. Marsh seemed to have the attitude that they (GMHS) were inferior (or whatever) to the Federal HS Crews and always trying to ‘prove themselves’ as better. We all told him he had already accomplished that once he achieved Type I status.
I have listed several (but not all) of these instances where the ‘bad decsions with prior good outcomes’ pathology persisted. This was basically a summation of those instances.
Bob Powers says
They did it to prove that they could do it all. Ignore the rules and take the chance. This is then the Loop fire all over Making an name as the can do crew. That’s what Superintendent King did two other Crews turned down what the Division Boss wanted in front of King He decided to show those hot shot crews what his crew was made of. That is what both the Superintendents told me and I worked for both. As I said it has happened in the past and it was part of what happened this time, May be all of what happened this time. We have been looking or the why and as RTS said it was there all the time (ego driven crew bad decisions with good outcomes). Not purity but very likely. and it makes me very sad but I understand a little more now.
SR says
So, you have a hole in accountability, right? No one’s ass is in a sling up the chain. I imagine many were hoping that Marsh would ultimately get “scared straight” without anything really bad happening. And, some of the time, that does happen.
Bob Powers says
Agree
WFF says
RTS did you experience this first hand or get feedback from people you know? I’m sorry to hear this sad outcome for everyone involved.
Robert the Second says
WFF,
Both
Gary Olson says
Bob/RTS, Don’t you think there is something wrong with “everybody” standing around out at the deployment site and saying, “Yup, we saw this coming from a mile away, it was bound to happen, it was only a question of when?”
Nobody operates in a vacuum on fires, especially no one who comes with a 20 person hotshot crew. If a group of hotshot crew bosses knew something was wrong, well…then…everybody knew something was wrong. Right?
The wildland firefighting organization (all agencies included) is a very small tight knit world, there is only about 1 degree of separation (instead of 6) between every wildland firefighter in the country, including old retired, former firefighters like me. Right? Everybody knows everybody’s reputation, don’t they?
Maybe that is what has been wrong with the SAIT and the SAIR and everything else since June 2, 2013. Maybe that is why nobody is talking and everybody is covering their asses? Like WTKTT said a long time ago, “there is nothing to see here, move along.”
SR says
Regarding people having seen this coming, I would be surprised if they hadn’t seen SOMETHING bad coming for this crew. But, remember, if you drilled down, bad would mean 1-3 crew getting caught, something like that. Look at earlier in the afternoon at the YHF and see that McDonough got lucky that Frisby picked him up. You can see just what was done with their lookout and see that sooner or later, a bad outcome will follow a bad decision. That doesn’t mean anyone expected the whole crew to get caught.
You currently have no real mechanism for either reporting near-misses, or making people feel that their asses are on the line if a superintendent is reckless. While civil lawsuits have resulted here, no one is being court-martialed. The families of the seasonal employees who died may be treated poorly by Prescott, but surviving higher-ups are not to my knowledge having their pensions and retirement status subject to review. And, oddly, I’m not sure that’s wholly wrong under the current system, because with the lack of reporting, I’m not sure how much of this kind of thing ever filtered back to Prescott. Even at Yarnell, had there been no accident, would anyone other than Frisby have a good idea how much risk McDonough was exposed to, and how McDonough’s decision-making implied views of deployment among other things that were troubling? It should have been apparent to GM themselves, and clearly was not.
SR says
By reporting near-misses, I mean reporting in a way that realistically might fix the human factor in those near-misses.
Bob Powers says
I dought if there is any paper work but you never know. Most of those that talked to him probably handled it one on one.
Gary Olson says
Oh, and one more thing Mr., Ms., Miss, or Mrs. WFF, I did agree with WTKTT when he systematically discredited virtually everything you said and every idea you had down below on March 6.
Gary Olson says
Bob said , “My take Gary== I dought you really did that. I’ll agree to disagree with you. You never knowingly would have put your crew in harms way……………..”
You’re right Bob, I never did that. There is a fine line between “fighting fire AGRESSIVELY while providing for safety first” and doing what the Granite Mountain Hotshots did. The trick is to know when you are over the line and take extra precautions. Like I have said before I am conflicted.
The main point I was trying to make is that not everyone was/is as safety minded and cautious as you and RTS were. Nor I did not invent the style of firefighting I was accustomed to, it was/is actually quite common. I think the only thing that really set the Yarnell Hill Fire apart from so many other wildfires…is the death toll. The fact that it was a safety deficient cluster ****, no.
I am just trying to explain to those who have never fought wildfire that although what Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed did was an extreme example of the “can do” attitude that permeates the wildland firefighting culture…it is not and will not be the only time it has or will happen. I think that fact is wildland firefighter’s dirty little secret. Hubris and the “can do” attitude has killed more wildland firefighters than anything else.
And I agree with WFF, as I have stated before, I don’t actually have anything to add to this discussion except background material on hotshots and firefighting in general, a kind of 2 plus 2 equals 4 logic. I also agree with WFF (as I have stated before) that I have already said to much and I should keep my mouth shut, although I will still point out that if WFF would have had his way in the beginning…John Dougherty never would have written about this event, and the only ones doing the talking would be Jerry Payne, Jim Paxon (I remembered his name) and Darrell Willis. How sad would that be?
Gary Olson says
In addition, I continue to be thrown off by this concept that “Superintendents made comments such as this: ‘This was the final, fatal link in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes. We saw this coming for years.” common knowledge that Eric Marsh made well known “prior bad decisions with good outcomes” we all knew it was going to happen.
Who knew that? When did they know about it? What exactly did they know? What did they do to correct it? What did they do to stop it? Who did they tell about it? These are just a few of the questions I have…and if I have them, I’m sure there are a few family members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots and their attorney’s who also have a few questions that are very similar.
So…am I wrong because I have talked too much, or are others wrong because they have not talked enough…Mr. WFF? I am still waiting for you to lay your credentials on the table rather than hide behind an internet alias. At least I have the courage to put my name on my ideas. Bob powers have vouched for RTS…that is good enough for me, but nobody has vouched for you Mr. WFF.
Gary Olson says
I apologize WFF. It could also be Miss WFF or Mrs. WFF.
Bob Powers says
Gary above you said it all I have no disagreement.
I know R3 is working on safety from this fire lessons learned with there Superintendents which will cover all crews. They are studding the fire and the reports to make there own conclusions. That I am sure will come out in recommendations for all to read. There walk thru on the fire was part of that. BR was included in that walk thru. I hope to see a good message come from them.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says
Reply to Gary Olson on March 16, 2014 at 12:08 am
>> Gary said…
>> In addition, I continue to be thrown off by this concept that
>> “Superintendents made comments such as this: ‘This was
>> the final, fatal link in a long chain of bad decisions with good
>> outcomes. We saw this coming for years.”
I would describe my own reaction to reading that recent
comment not nearly as mildly as being ‘thrown off’.
I would describe my own reaction more like “WHAAAAT???”.
Previous references to ‘bad decisions with good outcomes’
and the possible one-off baked UTV and a proficiency for
parking your vehicles where others have to bail your ass out,
and the occasional backfire that causes other crews to
have to scramble for safety… are one thing…
…but this *new* statement is something else altogether.
>> Gary, also said…
>> common knowledge that Eric Marsh made well known
>> “prior bad decisions with good outcomes” we all knew
>> it was going to happen.
If, as you aptly describe, that is the “talk on the two-track”
these days ( or even just at some private walk-thrus right
where it all happened )… that is a BIG DEAL.
>> gary also wrote…
>>
>> Who knew that?
>> When did they know about it?
>> What exactly did they know?
>> What did they do to correct it?
>> What did they do to stop it?
>> Who did they tell about it?
>>
>> These are just a few of the questions I have…and if I
>> have them, I’m sure there are a few family members
>> of the Granite Mountain Hotshots and their attorney’s
>> who also have a few questions that are very similar.
You can add me to that list… but I assure you my questions
are not ‘similar’ to your list.
They are IDENTICAL.
mike says
This really bothers me. People unfortunately too often take a “head in the sand” approach to situations like the one alleged here, but afterwards are all too willing to start yapping. Whose job would it have been to correct a situation like this? (please, dear God, do not let Darrell Willis be the answer to this question). Should Granite Mountain have gotten Type 1 IHC status? If they were so obviously unsafe, should they have continued to receive assignments? How does/should the fire community handle a situation like alleged here? Are there similar situations out there right now? Was Granite Mountain treated like crap over the years by the federal crews, and was put in the position of having to prove themselves? Did Eric Marsh, who seems as if he might have been a little prickly, make enemies over the years, who are now willing to engage in a whispering campaign? Most importantly, just WHAT IS THE TRUTH?
J. Stout says
Mike, What the (expletive deleted) are you asking/implying here? Because whether they (GM) were ‘ever’ treated like crap or not … nobody PUT THEM in a position. Period. End of sentence.
As for suggesting how the current information coming out regarding GM’s superintendent could be nothing more than a case of PAYBACK (?) because Marsh ‘might have been a little prickly’ over the years …
Is THIS what you have to say — after all the time spent here with numerous WFF’s (current and retired) … after all that they have made possible for any reader to learn (and know) … particularly when it comes to not just themselves and their profession, but just how deeply the YHF tragedy concerns them. You think ‘payback’ is what concerned those who were visiting the ridge above the burnover??
Get a grip, Mike, that’s all I can say. Get a grip.
mike says
Hell, I don’t know what or who to believe anymore. Some WFF and hotshots have been quoted that Marsh was first-rate, others apparently feel he was an accident waiting to happen. If it was the latter, the system allowed him to continue in a position where he ended up responsible for the deaths of 18 other men. The primary investigation team concludes that the whole affair was essentially bad luck. You have to this day basic facts about this whole event known to senior overhead on the fire that have not been made public, for whatever reason. Everyone wants to talk about lessons, but we first cannot even get an honest accounting of what happened that day. And I think that is not because what actually happened is unknown, it just has not been laid out openly.
People say baring the facts might be harsh for the families. I am sure advancing the idea that the crew super was dangerous (and I honestly am not discounting that possibility, I do respect what RTS has had to say) will go over much better! Let’s get an honest accounting of the facts that day, then we can debate how much Marsh’s prior behavior had to do with the events of June 30.
Finally, no I do not believe people are saying that about Marsh as a matter of getting even. The question was rhetorical. There appear to be real differences of opinion here. Everyone wants to know why they left the black. Almost certainly, no set of facts discovered will ever justify them having done so. But let’s find out what happened first, then we can assign the proper relevance to prior decisions.
Robert the Second says
Bob Powers posted on March 16th at 1236:
” I will also go back to the walk thru of Arizona hot shots that all felt the black was the best safety zone and they should have stayed there. The walk thru was a training exercise by FS Crews and I am sure will not be released to the public.”
That ‘walk thru’ was basically an informal Staff Ride. Several of the Hot Shot Superintendents made comments such as this: ‘This was the final, fatal link in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes. We saw this coming for years.’
Just one more alignment element in the Swiss Cheese model of accident causaion authored by James Reason. http://www.coloradofirecamp.com/swiss-cheese/introduction.htm
Robert the Second says
Correction – March 15th for Bob Powers post
Bob Powers says
I would add as Gary well knows Hot Shots are a tight organization in the Forest Service and BLM. If a crew is failing the test they will talk among them self’s and maybe to a trusted IC. The Failings for some reason stay with in the community. It has been that way science the Crews were first formed. Some reasons are supervisors won’t listen, and some say it is just a crew rivalry. One Superintendent won’t tell another what they should do unwritten rule. I run my crew you run yours. If you are not doing the right things you won’t listen to me any way. Simple but very complex.
Bob Powers says
There is one thing here that concerns me. Joy’s statement of the rumor of a back fire while I don’t believe any fire fighters could have been there to back fire around Boulder Springs Ranch could some one else have set a back fire? Like the owners. That would be a game changer if that happened I have not seen any statement or investigation that looked into that possibility.
If that would have happened it would have been devastating to the crew since it would have puled the main fire and the backfire together much faster. Again we need proof that happened. Some rumors are just that, and the main fire could just have well had multiple spot fires that did the same thing.
WantsToKnowTheTruth says