Please begin Chapter X of the Yarnell Hill Fire discussion here. Once again, do not include more than one link in your comment in order to avoid the spam folder.
Please refrain from personal attacks. Stay focused on what is known and what is not known.
Thank you, John
Chapter I, Chapter II, Chapter II supplement, Chapter III, Chapter IV, Chapter V, Chapter VI, Chapter VII and Chapter VIII and Chapter IX.
© Copyright 2014 John Dougherty, All rights Reserved. Written For: Investigative MEDIA
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 at 10:12 AM
Ms. Collura –
Please find the attached letter regarding your public records request.
Thank you
Beth Nehring
Beth Nehring
Human Resources Representative
Administrative Assistant
Arizona State Forestry Division
1110 West Washington, Suite 100
Phoenix, AZ 85007
( 602-771-1400 | 7 602-771-1421 fax
*[email protected]
http://www.azsf.az.gov
The envelope is marked Dec 16 2014 8pm and Sunday I will post photo of envelope as just PROOF of the FOIA request and this is the kind of stuff IF A PERSON MAKES CLAIMS they can PROVE by doing this…gives it clarity..keeps it transparent…and shows who was first since some care to be first…not me…I am so “cracker” mad at this point how YCSO did me yesterday and this whole horse shit with Chief Ben Palm. I will add on IM when I get photos via dropbox and tell the account but I am in a cracker mad mode this week that anything further I don’t care to help—I am asking locals as I hike to PLEASE show their photos and I am usually very kind in tone but not so kind this week…maybe if people here locally realize I tried the NICE way and this will make 2 Christmas these kids DO NOT have a dad and they could really HELP…Man, I am not a person you want to know nowadays…in a very P’d off mood.
I cannot believe how many people CHOOSE to hold on to their accounts when they can help
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6yhyc4jj0gut08v/prr%20collura%20121514%20%281%29.pdf?dl=0
to see the letter.
Please begin Chapter XI….
Thank you, John.
Direct jump to the new Chapter XI ( Eleven )…
http://www.investigativemedia.com/yarnell-hill-fire-chapter-xi
**
** VOICES IN THE STATIC – 2
**
** SOMEONE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING ABOUT
** GRANITE MOUNTAIN IN VIDEO M2U00264
This is a followup to the other recent ‘Voices in the static’ posting below.
THIS one is that loud HUM followed by that ‘voice in the static’ heard in Aaron Hulburd’s video M2U00264.
This is the transmission that took place just prior to the first MAYDAY call from Jesse Steed where both KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Aaron Hulburd say ( during the transmission ) that they are sure it is coming from either Eric Marsh or Jesse Steed.
Aaron Hulburd says ( during the transmission ): “That’s gotta be… Eric or Jesse.”
Then KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell immediately replies with: “That’s gotta be them, yea.”
That does NOT appear to be the case.
I’m not hearing a voice match for either Marsh or Steed. Not really…
…but the transmission DOES contain a conversation ( coming from SOMEONE? Brian Frisby? ) first about them ( Granite Mountain ) not needing to do something because they didn’t finish the work they were doing… and then about how they were told to ‘pick it up and monitor the weather’.
What is actually being said inside that static appears to be this…
——————————————————————————-
Because they didn’t need to. They didn’t complete the work that..
uh… they was doin’ this morning… then they got directed to pick
it up and monitor the weather.
——————————————————————————-
It is not clear WHO this person was talking TO ( since the radio only locked onto the channel in mid-conversation ).. but if I had to venture a ‘good guess’ who the one who is reporting to someone about Granite Mountain is… I would say it’s a very close VOICE MATCH for Blue Ridge SUP Brian Frisby.
This HUM and STATIC ( with conversation in it ) comes just after SPGS1 Gary Cordes has instructed TFLD2(t) Tyson Esquibel to send at least one Engine to the Boulder Springs Ranch… and to tell that ‘Engine’ to get with Granite Mountain there and make sure they get out safely.
SPGS1 Gary Cordes was SURE ( circa 1635 ) that they were either ALREADY there at the Boulder Springs Ranch… or just about to ARRIVE there.
Before I post the link to the new LOOP on this particular radio transmission… here is the transcript that covers the full timeframe as the LOOP itself from Hulburd’s M2U00264 video…
From Aaron Hulburd’s Helmet-Cam video clip M2U0064
————————————————————————
VIDEO M2U00264 STARTS AT 1633.23 ( 4:33.23 PM )
+2:29 ( 1635.51 / 4:35.51 PM )
(Very loud HUM followed by STATIC with a voice in it reporting to someone )
+2:31 ( 1635.54 / 4:35.54 PM )
( VOICE in the STATIC – Speaker still Unknown at this time):
Because they didn’t need to. They didn’t complete the work that..
uh… they was doin’ this morning… then they got directed to pick
it up and monitor the weather.
+2:36 ( 1635.59 / 4:35.59 PM )
(Foreground: Aaron Hulburd): That’s gotta be… Eric or Jesse.
+2:37 ( 1636.00 / 4:36.00 PM )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): That’s gotta be them, yea.
+2:41 ( 1636.04 / 4:36.04 PM )
(Foreground: More COUGHING. Sounds like KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell coughing. )
—————————————————————————-
** THE AUDIO LOOP…
This PUBLIC excerpt from Aaron Hulburd video M2U00264 LOOPS 4 times on just this particular ‘static filled transmission’ and it matches the transcript above.
It ENDS with the COUGHING and then LOOPS ( 4 times ) again back to the HUM and then the STATIC filled transmission…
http://youtu.be/EgXir-JV3rw
I have no idea what QUESTION the person who is speaking ( Frisby? ) was answering when he says “Because they didn’t need to”… but my guess would be that someone had asked why they didn’t stay up on the ridge.
Remember… this transmission comes just a few moments after the YARNELL-GAMBLE video where Eric Marsh is CLEARLY heard reporting that Granite Mountain is “Comin’ from the heel of the fire”. Someone might have just heard that and they are now asking the person who is heard speaking in this transmission “Why didn’t they stay on the ridge?”, or something to that effect.
The person answers with “Because they didn’t need to” ( stay on the ridge ) and then explains that it’s because they hadn’t finished their work and were told to ‘pick it up’.
More later.
Thanks for doing this. I’m seriously not good at this, but I woke up too early, so sitting here (while observing interesting complex inter-cat power dynamics) and listening to this over and over.
I think when Aaron says, “That’s gotta be… Eric or Jesse,” he’s referring to the “THEY” in the transmission, “Because they didn’t need to. They didn’t complete the work that..
uh… they was doin’ this morning… then they got directed to pick it up and monitor the weather,” and not the SENDER of the transmission.
I really don’t think any of the Prescotteers would have mistaken that voice for either Marsh or Steed.
I find this interesting: “then they got directed to pick it up and monitor the weather.”
I don’t know what “got directed to pick it up” means. Or by whom. But Abel seems to have been most involved in talking with Eric regarding watching the weather.
I just don’t know the voices all that well. But the voice that is saying that sounds more like Cordes than Frisby to me. Especially given how their voices sound in those segments when you can hear them communicating more clearly. Cordes’ voice has a lower pitch than Frisby’s. And the same pitch as I’m hearing in this communication.
Thanks also for the reminder of “where” this is in relationship to the Gamble video. Definitely could be a connection.
Sorry about being “sparse” these days. Dealing with stuff regarding my 93-year-old mom, big time.
Reply to Marti Reed post on December 16, 2014 at 6:38 am
>> Marti said…
>>
>> I think when Aaron says, “That’s gotta be… Eric or Jesse,” he’s
>> referring to the “THEY” in the transmission, “Because they didn’t
>> need to. They didn’t complete the work that.. uh… they was doin’
>> this morning… then they got directed to pick it up and monitor
>> the weather,” and not the SENDER of the transmission.
Good point. You might be exactly right.
Sure would be nice if someone had INTERVIEWED these guys, eh?
Actually… I believe they WERE interviewed ( it’s hard to imagine they would NOT have been ) but that those notes or transcripts have always been part of what is being withheld from FOIA requests.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> I really don’t think any of the Prescotteers would have mistaken
>> that voice for either Marsh or Steed.
Agree. It’s hard to tell, though, how much clearer even THEY ( Hulburd and Yowell ) could have heard the transmission. It really was poor quality… even for them.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> I find this interesting: “then they got directed to pick it up
>> and monitor the weather.”
>>
>> I don’t know what “got directed to pick it up” means.
I believe that just means ‘TOOLS UP’. Someone is relaying to someone else that they really were TOLD to ‘stop working’. Hence… ‘pick it up’.
There is also a chance that phrase could be ‘pack it up’… but I listened very, very carefully there and I’m almost sure it is ‘pick it up’… which still makes sense given the context of the rest of that transmission.
>> Marti also wrote…
>>
>> Or by whom. But Abel seems to have been most involved in
>> talking with Eric regarding watching the weather.
I thought about this a lot. I do NOT believe the speaker was Todd Abel here. Doesn’t really sound like him and I think the ‘context’ also proves it wasn’t him.
I believe the ‘they got told to pick it up’ is actually referring to that radio conversation between Abel and Marsh that was partially captured in the Caldwell video.
In other words… whoever is reporting to someone in THIS transmission might be referring to what THEY heard OPS1 Todd Abel telling DIVSA Marsh earlier…
1. Keep ME informed.
2. Hunker and be safe.
3. We’ll get some Air Support down there ASAP.
The person talking in the new transmission could be referring to the ‘Hunker and be safe’ directive from OPS1 Todd Abel as the ‘pick it up and monitor the weather’ moment.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> I just don’t know the voices all that well. But the voice that is
>> saying that sounds more like Cordes than Frisby to me.
>> Especially given how their voices sound in those segments
>> when you can hear them communicating more clearly. Cordes’
>> voice has a lower pitch than Frisby’s. And the same pitch as I’m
>> hearing in this communication.
You may be exactly right.
The more I think about it… it’s actually doubtful this could have been Frisby because of the actual MOMENT when this transmission takes place.
Remember… Frisby and Brown are just about 100 yards WEST of Hulburd at this moment and they are hauling ass OUT of the Youth Camp area in the Polaris Ranger and ‘bringing up the rear’. They ( Frisby and Brown ) are just moments away from pulling up to Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell right there where they are standing in the Shrine parking lot.
I don’t who was DRIVING the Polaris Ranger at that moment… but if it was Frisby himself then he really couldn’t have been the one making this transmission at this moment in time. Well… I suppose it’s possible… but not really likely.
SPGS1 Gary Cordes WOULD be the more likely candidate for this transmission… and as far as WHO he was ‘reporting’ to… I think the most likely candidate might be OPS2 Paul Musser.
Also remember… this is just SECONDS after we have already heard SPGS1 Gary Cordes telling TFLD2(t) Tyson Esquibel to arrange for that Engine to go and ‘get’ Granite Mountain at the Boulder Springs Ranch.
Here is what we might really be hearing at this point…
1) Cordes tells Esquibel to arrange for GM to be ‘picked’ up’ at BSR.
2) OPS2 Paul Musser HEARS this directive to Esquibel and that doesn’t match his mental picture of where GM really is. Musser still thinks they are ‘committed to the ridge’ as they told him earlier.
3) So Musser immediately calls Cordes to get some ‘clarification’.
4) Musser asks Cordes something like… “Hey Gary… I heard what you just told Esquibel to do. What is Granite doing at the Boulder Springs Ranch? Why didn’t they just stay up on the ridge?”
5) Cordes answers…
——————————————————————————-
Because they didn’t need to. They didn’t complete the work that..
uh… they was doin’ this morning… then they got directed to pick
it up and monitor the weather.
——————————————————————————-
“then they got directed to pick it up”
could also mean ‘pick-up the pace’, IF they were already moving.
I wish they had ( picked up the pace ). It is still astounding that regardless of why 2 men decided to lead 17 others out of a safe area and into a ‘risky’ situation that ( once the decision was actually made ) they weren’t doing ‘double-time’ the whole way.
It might have made all the difference that afternoon.
WTKTT said:
–Aaron Hulburd says ( during the transmission ): “That’s gotta be… Eric or Jesse.”
Then KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell immediately replies with: “That’s gotta be them, yea.”
I went and watched/listened to this again to reconfirm what I believe is going on here. I disagree that Aaron said “That’s gotta be..Eric or Jesse” I hear “That’s gotta be Blue Ridge”. AND, they’re watching for the last rig out of Shrine, which is Frisby/Blue Ridge then they show on the razor. And as far as resources like the Prescott guys that are evacuating other resources, they probably aren’t listening for every last transmission on the radio and speculating who it is, just saying. As far as your theory of Musser being the one alerted to GM’s position and questioning Cordes, wasn’t he standing there by the Prescott guys in this video? Didn’t he report the Skull Valley Wx to the Prescott guys?
As far as the background radio traffic, I agree with Marti it’s Cordes. He was doing all the talking as OH during that recording, at the end you can hear him talking to Abel about starting to lose structures too. Also remember that transmissions that are clear are probably decent line of sight, and the ones the Prescott guys aren’t really picking up, not so good line of sight down by the Shrine. Like Abel’s transmission, he was N and was coming across scratchy and broken.
As far as the “then they got directed to (pick it up) (pack it up), whatever, somebody directed them to do something. I’m not 100% sure of exactly what I hear here. Abel’s the “hunker and be safe and I’ll get you air support down there asap” comment, that’s the closest direction we have and it sounds right on.
Also thanks for doing this transcription/loop WTKTT
Reply to FIRE20+ post on December 16, 2014 at 10:40 am
FIRE20+… Thanks for reviewing this.
Once again… great observations on your part.
>> FIRE20+ said…
>>
>> I went and watched/listened to this again to reconfirm what
>> I believe is going on here. I disagree that Aaron said
>> “That’s gotta be..Eric or Jesse” I hear “That’s gotta be Blue Ridge”.
>> AND, they’re watching for the last rig out of Shrine, which
>> is Frisby/Blue Ridge then they show on the razor.
Yes. Could be. At the moment they are saying these things, Tyson Esquibel has just passed the camera in that long yellow/white GLENDALE pickup truck… but the pair of headlights now approaching the Shrine parking lot pretty much has to be the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger about to reach their location.
So yea… Yowell and Hulburd might have been focused on those approaching headlights and agreeing “That’s gotta be them”.
Yowell and Hulburd had already heard Frisby say ( at the start of this same video ) that they would be the ‘last ones out’.
If anyone ever gets a chance to actually interview “The 3 Prescotteers” ( or we ever see the transcripts of interviews they HAVE already given )… maybe what they were referring to there will become crystal clear.
>> FIRE20+ also said…
>>
>> As far as your theory of Musser being the one alerted to GM’s
>> position and questioning Cordes, wasn’t he standing there by
>> the Prescott guys in this video? Didn’t he report the Skull
>> Valley Wx to the Prescott guys?
Yes. Musser was still right there in the vicinity…
but SPGS1 Gary Cordes was NOT there.
So if Musser really wanted to know why Cordes just told Esquibel to send an Engine to BSR to ‘get with Granite Mountain’ there… he could still have been the one that called from right there in the Shrine parking lot asking Cordes “Why didn’t they stay up on the ridge?”
>> FIRE20+ also said…
>>
>> As far as the background radio traffic, I agree with Marti it’s Cordes.
I went back and did more ‘voice comparison’ and I’m going to totally withdraw my own ‘guess’ that it might have been Frisby. Marti is right. Different tonal placement in the voice and it really pretty much has to be SPGS1 Gary Cordes speaking there.
>> FIRE20+ also said…
>>
>> As far as the “then they got directed to (pick it up) (pack it up),
>> whatever, somebody directed them to do something. I’m not
>> 100% sure of exactly what I hear here. Abel’s the “hunker and
>> be safe and I’ll get you air support down there asap” comment,
>> that’s the closest direction we have and it sounds right on.
Well… whether it was Musser who ‘asked the question’ that (apparently) SPGS1 Gary Cordes was ‘answering’ there… the content of his response indicates ( just like Marsh’s response to someone in the YARNELL-GAMBLE video ) that the caller had asked a QUESTION and it was related to Granite Mountain.
In the case of the YARNELL-GAMBLE video… it must have bee a query about where GM was and what was taking them so long to get somewhere. Marsh’s response indicated to the caller that they were “coming from the heel of the fire” and that’s why they hadn’t arrived in town yet.
In the case of this transmission… whoever asked the question was (apparently) getting an ‘explanation’ ( from Cordes? ) as to why they didn’t ‘stay up on the ridge’.
If that really is SPGS1 Gary Cordes making this ‘report’ at this moment in time about what went on earlier with Granite Mountain, and why they were no longer ‘on the ridge’ and were currently “coming from the heel of the fire”…
…then that is just more proof positive that SPGS1 Gary Cordes heard pretty much ALL of the radio traffic concerning Granite Mountain that afternoon… including that conversation Marsh had with OPS1 Todd Abel about ‘the weather’ that resulted in Abel telling Marsh to “Hunker and be safe”.
So something really isn’t ‘matching’ with regards to how much SPGS1 Gary Cordes really did KNOW about Granite’s situation and activities leading up to the deployment… and what Cordes was choosing to share in his ADOSH interview.
Apparently… Cordes knew enough about what was going on with them to share this ‘report’ with someone over the radio just minutes before the first MAYDAY… but then makes no mention to ADOSH of having had this kind of knowledge.
Something not quite right there.
For the record and the Ten Standard orders
3 Crews I worked on and I am Familiar with
Cilaho Hot Shots Angeles NF 34 years disbanded lack of funds.
Never deployed Fire Shelters
Oak Grove Hot Shots Angeles NF 28 years disbanded lack of funds
Never deployed Fire Shelters.
Sawtooth Hot Shots Sawtooth NF 50 Years and still active
Never deployed Fire Shelters
Many other crews can attest to the same thing and they all never experienced a burn over out side a safety Zone
That is the statistics that I stand on for the safety of the 10 standard orders. We lived by them 50 years ago and they are still valid and the rules to day.
That is my evidence I don’t believe I need any thing else.
The ‘Central Arizona Wildland Response Team’ ( CAWRT ) seems to AGREE with you.
Here is their ‘official’ Facebook page…
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Central-Arizona-Wildland-Response-Team-CAWRT/201969799880168
Scroll down and look at what was posted there on June 30, 2014, on the day of the one year anniversary of the Yarnell Fire where ( according to Arizona Forestry’s official SAIT investigation ) ‘No one did anything wrong” and there were (supposedly) no LCES or 10+18 rule violations…
———————————————————–——
Central Arizona Wildland Response Team (CAWRT)
June 30 · Edited
As we are sure most of you have, please put the families and loved one of the Granite Mountain Hotshots in your thoughts and prayers.
At this time last year, several CAWRT crews were a part of the firefighting efforts at Yarnell Hill and still remember the tragedy as if it was yesterday. Take the time to share with your crews the new LCANS procedures as well as reviewing the 10 and 18 and LCES.
————————–———————————————
So according to the CAWRT… even though (supposedly) “no one did anything wrong” a year ago… this public post of ‘remembrance’ is ALSO asking their followers to PLEASE make SURE they ALL take the time to review LCANS, 10+18 and LCES…
L = Lookouts
C = Communications
E = Escape Routes
S = Safety Zones
The life you save might be your own.
First a correction in spelling Chilao Hot Shots. from above.
For some reason Elizabeth and her small cadre of fire fighters seem to want to dis credit and attack the 10 Standard orders.
To my knowledge and all my checking they are still as strong as they ever were and still referred to and used in training as you have shown above.
Some say they are used to condemn Fire Fighters or they are old and Hill Billy and not for modern day Fire Fighters, or they are vague.
I am saying spend more time researching them studying them and using them and you will find the real direction and meaning in each one and its attachment to the whole. They will serve you well as they did thousands before you.
Some have said you can not do your job and follow them sorry they are wrong.
They are called ORDERS for a reason
Bob, I do not discredit the 10 Standard Orders. All I said is that, as confirmed by Kenny Jordan’s deployment investigation (done by some fellow who is apparently well-known and respected in the WFF world), it is possible to follow the 10 Standard Orders and comport with LCES and STILL end up in a fire shelter or in a near-miss.
That was the only point that I was making.
I am disappointed that you are misquoting me or attributing things to me that I did not say! I am not surprised, mind you, but I am disappointed. I am stunned that John Dougherty ever used you as an expert source given your poor recall on facts, with all due respect.
No it is not possible EVER
The rest dose not merit a reply.
Bob, yes it is. If you doubt me, check with the investigator who reviewed Kenny Jordan’s shelter deployment.
Or I suggest you touch base with Kenny Jordan before you try to argue with me or with what Kenny himself said in his shelter deployment video.
Bottom line he stayed to long where he was lost the time to get to the SZ and got trapped on the rock.
Same as no SZ no trimming to use escape route actually ended up in a deployment site that was marginal and managed to survive. So no he did not follow all the 10 Standard orders or he would not have been where he was. He chose not to leave and move to the SZ Like I said in his statement he waited to long to leave and lost the opportunity. He knew what he was suppose to do he chose not to and lost his ability to escape. That’s what I read don’t know what you
think is safe he was very unsafe but justified it to make sure his crew was safe. So no I don’t completely agree with the investigator. Jordan lost his escape route because he waited to long to leave his lookout spot.
Again He Deployed and did not Burn or Die.
Did he have a Escape Route And A Safety Zone YES did he use it NO. In essence he failed to follow Order #4.
I am not chasing these Rabbits with you any more.
GM Failed to follow any of the rules and Died in the process.
A little history on 3 Hot Shot crews that I served on.
Chilao Angeles NF–34 years no Deployments ever. disbanded due to funding
Oak Grove Hot Shots Angeles NF 28 years no deployments disbanded due to funding
Sawtooth Hot Shots Sawtooth NF 50 years and still active no deployments ever.
That is 3 crews I can say never have used a Fire shelter. And I can say personally they all lived and preached the Ten Standard Orders. They followed them or still are that is a testament to Safety
There are many other crews that can attest to the same thing. I stand on the facts and they are there for those that need to know.
They are as good today as 50 years ago and Fire Fighters are safer because of them. With statistics like that prove me wrong.
Bob,
Ulterior Motives.
It’s all about dilute, divert, and destroy the message/discussion.
Don’t let her push your buttons.
I agree trying hard to move on Thanks……………….
WTKTT,
Remember back many IM Chapters ago, when we discussed the Federal Government’s SAIT protocol of completing a Management Evaluation Report (MER) for use only by upper management, not to be released to the public? Well the link below is for the MER for the fatal 2001 Thirty Mile Fire on the Okanogan NF, in central Washington, near Winthrop
On July 10, 2001, the second day of the Thirty Mile Fire, several WFF left their “lunch spot,” were then cut off by the advancing fire, and six (6) WFF deployed fire shelters above a road in rocks and rock scree and four (4) of the six WFF died. Ten others, including two civilians safely deployed on the road way below and survived without injuries. Two of the civilians sheltered with one of the WFF, making a total of three people in one fire shelter.
http://www.fireleadership.gov/toolbox/staffride/downloads/lsr4/lsr4_management_eval_rpt.pdf
The Recommendations on page 16) revealed the following:
“Situational Awareness, Assessment, and Transition”
“Ensure that fire program managers, fire-line supervisors, and firefighters have situational
awareness, assessment, and decision-making abilities necessary to successfully and safely
transition command from initial attack to extended attack on incidents.”
“Ensure that fire program managers and incident commanders have situational awareness,
assessment, and decision-making abilities necessary to react to significant changes in fire
danger thresholds.”
Sound familiar? This was clearly available and read by many, if not most, of those in the field and those on IMT’s, after the SAIR and MER were released, and should have been under consideration prior to 30 June 2013. Yet it was instead like Ground Hog Day on 30 June 2013.
Reply to Robert the Second (RTS) post on December 15, 2014 at 4:19 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> WTKTT,
>> Remember back many IM Chapters ago, when we discussed the
>> Federal Government’s SAIT protocol of completing a Management
>> Evaluation Report (MER) for use only by upper management, not
>> to be released to the public?
Yes. I also remember as part of that discussion the TOTAL FAILURE on the part of Jim Karels and Mike Dudley to do anything of the kind, even though that’s what they were being PAID to do by the State of Arizona taxpayers.
This has been posted before… but just in case anyone is new to the discussion, here is the exact ‘Transfer of Authority’ document that was SIGNED by both Jim Karels and Mike Dudley, and was then sent to Arizona Governor Jan Brewer by Arizona State Forester Scott Hunter.
Notice where it says EXACTLY which DOCUMENTS were *supposed* to be produced… and WHAT those documents were supposed to accomplish…
From the actual SAIR document… PDF page 118
—————————————————————————
Appendix G: Delegation of Authority
To: Janice K. Brewer – Governor of Arizona
From: Scott Hunt – Arizona State Forester
Arizona State Forestry Division
Office of the State Forester
1110 W. Washington St., Suite 100
Phonenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-1400
Serious Accident Investigation Team – Delegation of Authority
On the afternoon of June 30, 2013, nineteen members of the Granite Mountain Type 1 Hotshot Crew from Prescott, Arizona were killed while fighting the Yarnell Hill Fire.
As the State Forester of Arizona, I authorize Jim Karel’s Serious Accident Investigation Team to conduct the accident review of the Yarnell Hill Fire.
This delegation is to perform the serious accident review of the Yarnell Hill Fire with the final objective of providing a FACTUAL and MANAGEMENT report for ACCIDENT PREVENTION.
Your duties include but are not limited to:
…
7: Provide the following formal briefings/reports:
a. Expanded Report ( 72 Hours ).
b. Factual AND Management Report.
Signed by…
Scott Hunt – 7-3-13
Jim Karels, Team Leader, SAIT – 7-3-13
Mike Dudley, Deputy Team Leader, SAIT – 7-3-13
————————————————————————-
So the actual ‘Delegation of Authority’ from Arizona Forestry to the newly assembled SAIT team was REQUIRING both a FACTUAL and a MANAGEMENT report… and the end goal for BOTH documents was the prevention of future ( similar ) accidents.
Period. End of story.
Mike Dudley and Jim Karels then proceeded to just IGNORE all that, and just do whatever the hell THEY wanted to do.
They actually had the SAND to ‘include’ this letter in the only document they even bothered to produce.
Appendix ‘G’ of their own (worthless) ‘Special Accident Investigation Report’ ( SAIR ), whic
That (expensive) publication was in no way any kind of real ‘Accident Investigation’, nor was there anything ‘Special’ about it… and it really even wasn’t much of a ‘Report’.
So TOTAL FAIL on pretty much each letter of the acronym.
And there was NO (detailed) MANAGEMENT report, as they were contracted by Arizona Forestry to also produce.
Zero. Zip. Nada.
I still think both Mike Dudley and Jim Karels need to return whatever money they left the State of Arizona with back to the taxpayers of Arizona.
They didn’t do what they were CONTRACTED to do.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> Well the link below is for the MER for the fatal 2001 Thirty Mile Fire
>> on the Okanogan NF, in central Washington, near Winthrop
>>
>> ( Insert link and detail paragraph from above )
>>
>> The Recommendations on page 16) revealed the following:
>>
>> “Situational Awareness, Assessment, and Transition”
>>
>> “Ensure that fire program managers, fire-line supervisors, and firefighters
>> have situational awareness, assessment, and decision-making abilities
>> necessary to successfully and safely transition command from initial
>> attack to extended attack on incidents.”
Total FAIL on June 30, 2013, in Yarnell, Arizona.
>> “Ensure that fire program managers and incident commanders have
>> situational awareness, assessment, and decision-making abilities
>> necessary to react to significant changes in fire danger thresholds.”
Total FAIL on June 30, 2013, in Yarnell, Arizona.
Gary Cordes told ADOSH at least FOUR times…
“The fire just outperformed our expectations”.
No shit, Sherlock.
Keyword: Expectations.
If the people working that fire didn’t have enough knowledge, or training, or experience to have the RIGHT expectations that day… then they should NOT have even BEEN there picking up paychecks from the taxpayers of Arizona.
The taxpayers in Yarnell ( and in ALL of Arizona ) deserved BETTER.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> Sound familiar?
Yep. That’s why Yarnell is ( and continues to be ) such a ‘missed opportunity’ for both Arizona Forestry and the US Forestry Service. It is PROOF that the directives and
conclusions that have ALREADY been paid for with other lives are NOT being
regularly implemented or enforced at both the State and Federal Forestry levels.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> This was clearly available and read by many, if not most, of those in the
>> field and those on IMT’s, after the SAIR and MER were released, and
>> should have been under consideration prior to 30 June 2013.
>> Yet it was instead like Ground Hog Day on 30 June 2013.
When small animals won’t come out of their holes… and prefer to just stay ‘underground’ and not listen to anyone OR come out and see the light of day… the only way to GET them to come out is to FORCE them to.
The Yarnell Hill Fire is actually about much, much more than just the Yarnell Hill Fire.
I think the ENTIRE Forestry Program ( both State and FED ) is ripe for a
complete, serious, independent REVIEW.
Management… Hiring Practices… Training programs… Accident Investigations… yada, yada.
Soup to Nuts… before more people get killed.
Joy and I attended the Yarnell Fire Board Group and are just back. It seems they were more intent on enforcing something that can not be legally enforced concerning state trespass laws than they are creating defensible space, looking at concerns regarding the loss of 40 lives since the fire and finding out what the circumstances really were that led up to the 19 GMHS deaths.
A number of Joy’s friends showed up to witness in case we got arrested–it did not happen. Even her husband was there to make bond if needed. The young fire chief stated he was only trying to comply with orders from upstairs, but he did not know that Joy had photographed many people that were on those state lands without legal passes, therefore breaking the law. Ignorance of the law is no excuse these days even though there are 64000 and more on the books. But boys enforcing the law need to get them all down so they can deliver the facts to us hikers. Well it turns out Joy educated many of those that she had in the photo when they later wanted to hike with us–almost to a person they did not know that they had to have a pass to walk on their own public lands. Yes a $15 senior pass or $20 regular pass will get you on with us–we want to keep you out of jail and the exorbitant fine for that awful crime of walking on state or federal lands without giving the mordida (little bite) as they call it in Mexico. Some think it is akin to a robber holding a gun on you so you can walk out there. The state will do that for you as well if you are not happy with their fee.
I did get in a thing about the 40 dying and so first did Joy. I was able to let the board know that 83%of that LC95A slurry fire retardant is ammonia nitrate that gives off a lung tissue killing gas and that 8% is chemicals that we have yet to know due to trade secret. I suggested that since they should have the clout to gain this information, and seeing that they are a fire board concerned with fire things including firemen’s health they ought to find out. Also factor in 40 deaths now since the fire in this little community, would it not be a good idea to contact EPA or the health bureaus to investigate the possible escalation in deaths to older citizens. One lady was very interested on the board and did write this down. Maybe it will help somebody–seeing the 6 page information report on LC95A states it has never been tested on animals or humans as to its effect on health. They just assume it is good stuff and the gasses and chemicals emitted by the drops are benign. Sounds like the same shit we heard when i was a uranium miner–low grade uranium does no harm–yet you can get a consolation prize for being a uranium miner for over 4 quarters of a hundred and fifty grand. It takes one of specific cancers, COPD, and other diseases to get it and up to ten years for approval so hopefully you can hang on against the disease until you get it. Most haven’t and those old miners i knew were mostly gone long ago from one cancer or another. Maybe these firemen need to know now what they breath, so they can have some chance of future retribution–if indeed as i believe they are–breathing dangerous chemicals.
Now back to the fire–Joy did post some more new photos a few days ago. What I saw looked like would be more help in resolving things.
The Discovery Channel guy did contact Joy just before we left–wanted her to report back on how it went at the fire board. Well I did not see much excitement there, but can bet they will lay off Joy after she laid out about six pages of maps, regulations and facts about how the law must be followed not only by us but by those that exercise the law as well.
It is amazing all this to me–I do admire you people here and how well you have been exposing these bumblers of the Yarnell fire.
I have to admit I did ask the FBI to step in and had presented a pretty good argument (at least in my own opinion) as to why they should. It took a long email to the Phoenix office–and one of the things i covered is the obvious cover up and omission of such things as that Bambi and Copter able to stop the fire or at least slow it for oncoming fire fighters that was told by the Honcho to stay put. Such things seem strange to me–also that a photo of two ATV’s on the mountain right at the fire on Friday is in the hands of certain individuals–yet no investigator has ever bothered to contact those people with the photo or even ask who it is that has those photo’s.
Did Joy’s discovery of that Bambi/copter photo and the fact that certain firemen on the job hear on radio that bosses told the copter pilots to stand down on Saturday morning piss someone off? Marti and Wants to Know the Truth dissected those photos as to what they were as well as time and date and location. The idea is that someone does not want the truth and nothing but the truth out and in my way of thinking only outside investigators will be able to get closure and satisfaction to the loved ones. There are lots of children out there without fathers now, mothers and dads without their sons. There are plenty of friends saddened by this tragedy So no matter how lightly those dissenters to outside investigators might be, this investigation will go on and no amount of harassment or intimidation will stop those of us who whittle at the veil of whitewash we have been fed.
Fred Schoeffler, as part of his efforts to try to needlessly (or at least prematurely) besmirch the 19 dead Granite Mountain Hotshots, stated below that: “You can find NO investigation report and/or review anywhere, where a WFF followed all The WFF Rules and ended up burned, in a fire shelter, or a fatality.”
In response, I offer the following: Not true, Fred (at least according to what Kenny Jordan states in his Big Creek Fire deployment video)! 😉
According to former Sierra Hotshots Superintendent Ken Jordan’s video interview about his deployment on the Big Creek fire, the person who did the review of Kenny’s shelter deployment found that Kenny was in compliance with the 10 Standard Orders. Go back and listen to the video – at roughly 8 minutes and 47-ish seconds into the video, Kenny says that the guy who did the investigation/review (who apparently was very well-regarded in the WFF world) ultimately concluded that Kenny did not violate the 10 Standard Orders. Yet Kenny ended up in a fire shelter and almost died nonetheless….
It happens. The 10 Standard Orders and LCES sometimes prove insufficient, such that you can end up in a bad situation even when it seems that you honestly, legitimately complied with them in a way that was reasonable at the time.
First Kenny ADMITTED he stayed to LONG to make sure his crew got out. he was stuck on a rock. Fine Hair here as to a violation of the 10 SO’s He personally did not have a escape route and his SZ was the rock not a good choice but the only place for a lookout.
Second he used his shelter and he got lucky and survived in not the best location.
What did RTS say?????
Where a FF ended up BURNED or a Fatality.
THE 10 STANDARD ORDERS ARE ALWAYS SUFFICENT ALONG WITH LCES.
HEY HAVE PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN WITH 10’S OF THOUSANDS OF LIVES BEING SAVED BY THERE USE.
ELIZABETH— WITH NO EXPERIANCE IN WILD LAND FIRE FIGHTING YOU HAVE NO CLUE AND NEVER HAVE.
Again for your information—Granit Mountain Never used the 10 and 18 or LCES in their move off the mountain. THERE IS NO NEEDLESLY BESMIRCHING OF THE 19 DEAD HOT SHOTS
They did not follow the rules so attack me I am saying the same thing and so are many of my fellow Fire Fighters. There was no escape route. There was no posted look out. The SZ that they were headed to was over 12 min. away not good when they were in one to begin with. The had no communications with any one that was watching their move. The AA you suggest was their lookout was to busy to keep track of a crew.
Failure to identify several of the 18 situations. They simply put themselves in harms way by not following Fire Fighting Rules.
Sorry Elizabeth every thing you said falls way short of the facts.
Again KENNY admitted he waited to long and stretched the 10 Standard orders to the limit.
He also so said he learned from his experience.
I am sure Marsh Steed and the crew knew they made the biggest mistake of there lives when they prepared to deploy. Most all who have been there and survived will tell you the same thing I can assure you every one on that crew knew what they did wrong and were stuck with a final hope for survival in a fire shelter.
THERE IS NO FOLLOWING THE RULES HERE AND DYING. IT DOSE NOT HAPPEN IN YOUR SIMPLE WORLD— YOU A NEWYORKER HAVE NO CLUE.
When Hell is real and all around you and you have seen the Elephant and spent years learning how to Fight Wild Land Fire. Then you can discuss the 10 & 18 on an equal footing.
One More Thing I am explaining the facts to you. There is no reference to attacking you here.
Bob, first, Air Attack was not GM’s lookout. They were already gone for the day.
Second, Kenny says in his video that the very well-regarded WFF who did the investigation of Kenny’s deployment said (paraphrasing) that Kenny followed “the Rules” (the Ten Standard Orders) yet STILL got entrapped.
That was my only point, Bob: You can follow the Ten Standard Orders in a way that seems reasonable and have LCES and STILL get caught.
(Folks who have fought wildland fires more recently than you have all know this. Uber-extreme fire behavior is unfortunately not predictable enough given the nascent state of fire science with respect to uber-extreme fire behavior.)
REALLY ELIZABETH
33 years of living and breathing a carrier of wild land fire .
I can tell you to day is no different than 30 years ago The 10 & 18 are still very real and the Fire fighters I know and talk to that are fighting fire today will tell you the same as I just got done doing.
Several years in Southern Cal in as you say Uber-Extreme Fire Behavior
thought us the 10 and 18 were as good then as now.
Todays Fire Fighters like Sawtooth Payette and Boise Hot Shots Who are friends of mine all believe in the 10 & 18 as the absolute rules so no I am not out of touch and can sit down with todays fire fighters and Carrie my weight.
When things go to shit that’s extreme fire behavior today or 40 years ago
Extreme is Extreme——– again you have no clue.
And you tried to convince me this summer that AA B33 was GM Look Out
So don’t play that game either. .
Bob, do you mind if I post various quotes from our e-mail exchanges to show that I did NOT take the positions that you are trying to claim that I took? I am asking you so that I do not offend you by doing it without you first signing-off on it.
SO NOW YOU ARE SAYING THAT THERE WAS NO LOOKOUT AGREED TO IN THE AIR. AND THERE FOR NONE ON THE GROUND?
You just confirmed no LCES OR TEN STANDARD ORDERS followed by GM –which we have known for over a year now.
ELIZABETH they died because they did not follow the rules how simple and straight forward is that.
NO ONE DIES WHEN THEY FOLLOW THE RULES EXTREEM BURNING CONDITIONS OR OTHERWISE.
What was discussed between us was not discussed on here so your posts would violate your own agreement with MYSELF AND OTHERS…..
.
As you have already violated RTS said agreement.
WARNING DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH/LOGICAL PHALLACY YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGINST YOU. YOU WILL BE SORRY THAT YOU DID. SHE WILL STOCK YOU.
Elizabeth our and your request for emails was as you said private to release any thing that I did not say here openly is a violation of your own agreement with MYSELF and others.
I do not know what—– various quotes—– you want to post here so no I do not give you permission………………..
WARNIG DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH / LOGICAL PHALLACY YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGINST YOU. YOU WILL BE SORRY THAT YOU DID…
Bob, when you keep referencing our e-mail exchanges, how do you suppose I am going to reply, other than by posting those e-mails? Either STOP lying about them, or expect that I will take that as your explicit permission to post them!
When you claim that I said certain things in e-mails when I know that I did not, you are essentially begging me to post those e-mails. Otherwise, you would not talk about them (and misstate them). Thank you in advance for either being accurate about them or allowing me to post them here so thatI can show what I said. For example, you have repeatedly referenced our e-mail exchanges regarding winds, but I have since learned that the reality is that our wind exchanges revealed more expertise on my part than yours, unfortunately.
Elizabeth you are showing your true colors I have said nothing specific to our discussions over emails nor will I
The subjects we discussed I have stated not the content.
You are only showing your true nature to post emails between us and private. We did not discuss them here and we should not now. What I said is what I said but it was a private exchange and should be left there.
If you wish to start playing that game you will prove what we are already saying. You can not be trusted to not release private information or discussions………….
AND IF YOU THINK YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT WEATHER AND ITS AFFECTS ON FIRE YOU ARE TRULY DELUSIONARY. Answering your statement above and not our discussion On email.
WARNING DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGINST YOU.
Bob, you have repeatedly referenced our e-mail exchanges here, and I am offering to POST those exchanges here, so that you will stop lying about them. You have repeatedly brought them up – not me!
I do not have a copy of any of them yours or mine
So if you want to make a one sided conversation some how attacking me.
Its your game not mine.
If you are going to start that game hopefully JD will block you from this blog.
You will only prove what we have been saying
do not give Elizabeth your email or discuss information with her she will use it against you with no remorse.
Go back to your own BLOG and type what you want its not relevant. nor worth my time.
Elizabeth/Logical Phallacy,
Robert the Second here. You are SO predictable! With you once again, misrepresenting the facts, twisting the truth to fit your means to an end habit, and all the other types of legal maneuver machinations. Your goal is to continually want to steer all relevant Subject Matter to be discussed on this site, ACCORDING TO YOUR STANDARDS in your persistent goal to be the self-imposed arbiter of Truth and Justice and everything righteous.
First off, I Robert the Second, said “You can find NO investigation report and/or review anywhere, where a WFF followed all The WFF Rules and ended up burned, in a fire shelter, or a fatality. NO WHERE!” Did you get that? NO INVESTIGATION REPORT AND/OR REVIEW. This Big Creek Fire Shelter Deployment is NOT listed anywhere in the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center nor anywhere else for that matter. Therefore, my original assertion still holds as truthful and accurate.
Carefully reviewing former Sierra HS Supt. Ken Jordan’s Big Creek Fire, fire shelter deployment video will CLEARLY AND LITERALLY reveal (NOT PARAPHRASING) but quoting here, Jordan stated “Gary Cons (sp?) the Investigator, was about one of the best of the best Fire Behavior guys; he checked off my list and felt ALL THE FIRE ORDERS AND WATCH OUTS WERE IN PLACE.” (EMPHASIS ADDED)
Furthermore, IF ALL the Fire Orders AND THE WATCH OUTS WERE IN PLACE then he should have been LONG GONE out of there. Therefore, he was NOT fighting fire by The Rules. And he later admitted to staying too long because he was one of the primary lookouts for his Crew.
I would also add that the statement Elizabeth refers to was Stated after Jordon’s short recap of what happened.
This all took place on yarnelhillfireblog at the end a reply by the Administrator of said blog stated.
THE 10 STANDARD ORDERSAND LCES SOME TIMESS PROVE INSUFFICENT SSUCH THAT YOU CAN END UPIN A BAD SITUATION EVEN THOUGH YOU COMPLY WITH THEM.
No place in Jordon’s statement did he state that– it is pure conjecture by the Administrator of that blog base on a assumption.
Again indicating the blog is Administered by ELIZABETH.
LOOKS LIKE MY OLD KEY BOARD IS PLAYING TRICKS WITH ME AGAIN.
Reply to Elizabeth post on December 15, 2014 at 1:54 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> Air Attack was not GM’s lookout.
TRUE.
>> Elizabeth also said…
>>
>> They were already gone for the day.
FALSE.
EN said:
“Bob, first, Air Attack was not GM’s lookout. They were already gone for the day.”
Come on, haven’t we already laid out that Air Attack is technically everyone’s lookout? And Air Attack was gone for the day? Failing to pay attention to this detail and then believing you are educating yourself in fire, you’re funny.
EN said:
“You can follow the Ten Standard Orders in a way that seems reasonable and have LCES and STILL get caught.
(Folks who have fought wildland fires more recently than you have all know this. Uber-extreme fire behavior is unfortunately not predictable enough given the nascent state of fire science with respect to uber-extreme fire behavior.)”
As far as the Ten Standard go, we haven’t invented new ways to kill firefighters. You’re missing the intent of the Ten Standard or you’re picking a fight. Which is it? They’re not in place to predict fire behavior, but to give tools to stay alive! And I can assure you firefighters today follow them and respect them. Your sources aren’t conveying reality to you. And what you call “uber-extreme” fire behavior, that’s just another day in R-3 during Monsoon season or R-1 in August, normal ops.
FIRE20+ was referring to B33 which took over as AA acting when B3 left him in charge.
.
No they were not Lookouts in any shape or form as what a lookout is, yes they were in the sky over the fire and viewing the entire fire.
Goes back a long way to this summer and a discussion that did not happen here. B33 was on the fire and there till after the deployment he was acting as AA. Sorry if I confused you.
FIRE20+
Not sure about your educating your self funny statement.
refer to the above for clarification.
I say to my self—-
Man go back and reread you were talking to Elizabeth not me………….
Got way ahead of my self.
And you FIRE20+ are right on I owe you a big one collect any time……
Read below I screwed up
On this one Bob Powers is right on. In all the firefighters we hiked up along that two track we heard the same thing. They just shook their heads and said that none of the firefighter rules were followed here. And that includes such heavies as Dr. Ted Putnam, Wayne Niel, and even former GMHS people.
Now, I will say, I don’t think you even needed the firefighter rules to know better than dropping off into that basin considering the dense brush, the proximity of a wild fire in the energy releasing range of a Hiroshima/Nagasaki bomb, a known thunderstorm in the north east, meteorological reports of coming winds and gusts to 45mph, and looking at a ranch house that has already been declared “bomb proof”. As the mayor of Prescott, Marlin Kueykendall said to me: “Common sense goes a long ways”. But what actually swayed Marsh’s origional decision to stay in the black? Or was it even his decision to go down there. Steed was on the horn as often as Marsh. Who influenced the origional thought?
One thing from where they were in the black, if they were still near their origional morning fire line and work, they would have to follow the two track for about 3/4 mile and completely out of sight of the Helms ranch until they reached that saddle or were just above the saddle on that two track. They would have covered all that in the green albeit the two track would have been clear enough to move along at a good pace. They would be watching the wild fire in its amazing advance toward people’s valley and just a mile or so below them. It would be after they dropped off in that basin that they would have lost sight of the fire and would have green behind them as well as in front of them. Heaven help them should the wind change because they were in a maze where there would absolutely be no running. You could make it to the boulders either to the South or to the North from where they were–but not to that ranch–no way–Joy and I had come through that brush, and it took some hours just to make a mile without packs, chain saws and cumbersome clothing.
So yes, Marlin, Common Sense does go a long ways. So those rules are common sense.
Please provide EVIDENCE that:
1. The Granite Mountain Hotshots, when they left the black they were in and attempted to cross a brush-filled bowl to reach the Boulder Springs Ranch, were maintaining adherence to the 10/18/LCES, which, then, just failed to work for them.
2. Ken Jordan believes the Granite Mountain Hotshots were abiding by all the above rules, in spite of their otherwise astonishing and inexplicable demise, given what he said about them in the video that follows the one you are referencing.
2. You understand fire/weather behavior more than Bob Powers does. or even I do. So far I have seen no evidence in the past year of this conversation here that that is the case. I agree the Granite Mountain Hotshots walked into “extreme fire behavior.” But I also agree with others that, given the way monsoon weather characteristically works in the Southwest, “extreme fire behavior” was entirely predictable at the time they chose to walk into it.
What Bob Powers has said, here, all along, is, essentially, that they shouldn’t have walked into it. Regardless of exactly which way it was going.
Please provide evidence that you understand fire behavior any better than that.
Otherwise, I will consider what you are doing here to be no more constructive than diversion. And using Ken Jordan’s brief words, out of context, to further that aim.
And, no, Air Attack was not “already gone for the day.”
Bravo 33 was fulfilling the role of Air Attack at the time of the deployment. That’s what Air Support Modules are designed to do. Whether you agree with that rather controversial model these days or not.
So there’s that. Also.
I would Advise. More. Homework.
That is,
If. You. Want. More. Credibility.
was in touch today with the History Channel guy/producer Demetri and I will update here first than get back to him but I am very much not well.
I will post the raw unedited YFD meeting which to me was boring even on topic of us but it is here public for you all.
I need to post it than go lay down or something. right behind the right eye intense pain….so doubt I will read much on updates on here—
AGAIN let me EDUCATE the PUBLIC and LOCALS…PLLLLEEEEEEEEEEAAASSSSEEEE start sharing your photos public. How much time has to pass by? What does it have to take? It is CRUCIAL you all share!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thank you to some of the current and retired or no longer a part of the firefighter community that was there as well as Brian Murphy and Errol Eastwood and very appreciative to Mayor Ed Gregory and Congress resident Pat Fisher for your attempts as well as my husband taking time away from his work schedule to be there and Sonny and very deeply appreciative to Patti & Larry McCracken for just being there for support. No Dr. Leroy Anderson; ??? Maybe forgot.
Smokejumper Murray Taylor- we got your email 12:25pm 12-15-14 and we are looking forward to ordering your new book ( t-hangar days) (jumper humor) Happy Holidays to you too. Buy his book today “More or Less Crazy”
Feel free to forward this email anyone else you might think would be interested in purchasing the book. I wanted to write a funny book, one with lots of humor (you know–jumper humor) and I think I got a good bit of that done. It was a hell of a lot of work and really happy it’s finally finished.
All the best and Happy Holidays, Murry A. Taylor, Author of Jumping Fire.
This is the link to the paperback: *There’s no hardcover at this point.
http://bookstobelievein.com/MoreorLessCrazy.php
You can also call 303.794.8888 direct to order this book. This link, or a phone call, is my preferred way for you to get the book. If you buy it from Amazon, you might get it a little cheaper, but I only get $4.00. If you buy it from Books To Believe In I get $12.00.
http://bookstobelievein.com/MoreorLessCrazy.php
Synopsis: More or Less Crazy
In More or Less Crazy I return to the summer of 1973. It is my first as an Alaska smokejumper, and a wild and freewheeling time in and around Fairbanks. It’s the beginning of the construction of the Alaska pipeline. From our comfortable barracks and tent frames on the green banks of the Chena River, a new and clueless District Manager moves the crew to a deserted old hangar on Fort Wainwright. He is bent on ridding Alaska of smokejumpers. They just cause too many problems. The T-hangar has no running water, no electricity, no heat. The crew is made up of Vietnam Vets, ex-Air America bad boys, and transfers and no-rehires from the jump bases in the Lower 48. Being stuck on Fort Wainwright in the old T- Hangar, surrounded by chain link fences and gravel lots, and under the eye of the Military Police is a recipe for disaster.
Al Mattlon, our new base foreman, is a different kind of boss. One who senses the value of the individual spirit. Crew meetings begin. Trust builds. Strong personalities come forward, then together in an outrageous testimony to the joy of living life fully in one of America’s last great true-life adventures. In an odyssey of movement and beauty we jump fires from Kodiak Island to the shadows of Denali, and in the winds of Isabel Pass. By early August we are jumping fires out of the North Cascade Smokejumper Base in North Central Washington, then La Grande in Northeastern Oregon, then on to Missoula, Montana to finish the season.
I don’t claim this to be the complete/definitive story of the T-Hangar Days. There’s just too much to contain in one book. It is but a mere glimpse. Spend a summer with a crew of special characters and witness, not only its ability to perform minor miracles stopping wildfires, but also to laugh and play in a raucous celebration of the human spirit. I hope you enjoy it.
One more thing, I’d really appreciate you writing a review as soon as you finish the book. Either on the To Books to Believe In site, or on Amazon.com. This especially helps if done on Amazon. Thanks so much. Murry
Again the link: http://bookstobelievein.com/MoreorLessCrazy.php
today’s meeting:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/otrhdsabdcrk2uc/141215_0005.MP3?dl=0
someone in email asked me what my view of the meeting. Let me make it straight, I like the fire board members so it is hard to go to a meeting where I like the people on the board. I mean I don’t just like them—I care about the fire board all with heart. My concern is the people who have come to me locally on the topic of Chief Ben Palm not just locally but in his old stomping grounds…otherwise I would NEVER know a lick about who he is and so because I know what Chief stated to me and he sticks with his statement I would find him a person who is not 100% transparent and so to me I will continue to help piece this puzzle together…For the loved ones of the GMHS who know me —do know— as soon as this head pain diminishes I do plan to reach T/S who is someone who has a great account and file…working on it. I know I said the meeting was boring…anything would disinterest me today with my head pain…I am just here typing because Sonny wanted to post here. As you all know he sees the fire different than me. I just want to build the community to 100% transparent and we all pull together and share our accounts so this fire can properly be assessed for EVERYONE affected by the YHF. Thank you for the MANY emails and calls who said they got notice too late and wish they were there…I know you would have…I reckon it is nice to know people support us finding the facts out for the public.
Thank you, Joy!
I will listen to that tomorrow.
My very elderly mom is having lots of physical problems these days, so I’ve had a hard time keeping up.
And I empathize with the fact that you are having lots of physical problems right now, also. Please take care of yourself!!!
Below is a link to MANY links on the Human Factors related to avalanche incidents and fatalities. The close comparison to wildland fire fatalities is quite revealing.
http://www.avalanche.org/moonstone/decision-making.php
Bad Decisions With Prior Good Outcomes aplenty in these avalanche Human Factors links.
I know a snow boarder who survived an avalanche.
He went right back to doing these ‘chopper drops’ on steep slopes
with fresh snow.
I asked him WHY?
He said “If I’m not pushing the envelope… I’m not having any FUN”.
Killing yourself is one thing.
Taking others WITH you is something else altogether.
That’s why RULES were invented… and if you can’t follow them… go home.
The psychological phenomenon of GROUPTHINK, which I allege also occurred on the YH Fire as a causal factor with the GMHS incident, becomes very clear as well in many of these links.
The link below is to the Fire Management Notes (Volume 55, 1995) with the overall theme of ‘Firefighter Safety and Health.’ The particular citations below are from an article titled” “Beyond the Safety Zone: Creating a Margin of Safety” by Mark Beigley.
http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/fmt_pdfs/055_04.pdf
“The RISK THRESHOLD for all firefighters is DIFFERENT. Every firefighter
possesses a different combination of knowledge and experience with which to evaluate the relative safety of the current situation. Firefighters
may also have DIFFERENT INFORMATION REGARDING LOCAL FACTORS THAT MIGHT AFFECT FIRE BEHAVIOR. There is an ASSUMPTION THAT VETERAN FIREFIGHTERS HAVE WELL-DEFINED, ACCURATE RISK THRESHOLDS. Also, it is ASSUMED THAT THESE RISK THRESHOLDS CANNOT BE DEPENDED UPON TO PROVIDE A CONSISTENT AND APPROPRIATE ASSESSMENT OF SAFETY FOR ANY GIVEN TACTICAL FIRELINE OPERATION. (ALL EMPHASIS ADDED)
The GMHS had or should have had a completely firm grasp on the ‘local factors’ affecting fire weather and fire behavior being that this YH Fire was virtually in their own backyard AND they were on the Doce Fire days prior with even more extreme fire behavior.
As far as the ASSUMPTION that veteran firefighters maintained accurate risk thresholds,I allege that this did NOT apply to certain GMHS supervisors that instead practiced a repeated habit of Bad Decisions With Prior Good Outcomes.
“But even if firefighters have developed accurate risk thresholds, they always have a DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY because of inadequate or
deteriorating information.”
Based on Fire Orders #1 and #3 (weather conditions and forecasts AND expected fire behavior), there should have been NO uncertainty for the GMHS since they had the best view of the YH Fire, better than anybody else, AND they had unfettered radio communication access as well!
“The firefighter must constantly evaluate where that line [OF UNCERTAINTY] is and how close he or she is to it, given the current situation. Uncertainty is always present. RISK THRESHOLD IS NOT MEASURABLE, THEREFORE NOT QUANTIFIABLE. FIREFIGHTERS CANNOT MEASURE HOW CLOSE THEY ARE TO AN UNSAFE SITUATION. ONLY THE FIRE CAN PROVIDE FEEDBACK TO THE ACCURACY OF THEIR RISK THRESHOLD.”
In the case of the GMHS and the YH Fire, I allege that they DID in fact have A MEASURABLE AND THEREFORE QUANTIFIABLE KNOWLEDGE of the UNSAFE SITUATION THAT THEY PLACED THEMSELVES IN BY LEAVING A PERFECTLY GOOD SAFETY ZONE DURING EXTREME FIRE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.” I allege that no one else placed them in that final position but themselves.
I can relate to and understand this one sentence —–
ONLY THE FIRE CAN PROVIDE FEEDBACK TO THE ACCURACY OF A FIRE FIGHTERS RISK THRESHOLD.
Situational awareness is what makes a good fire fighter but in the end it is what the fire is telling you that keeps you and every one around you safe. The 10 Standard orders are from very old school each one learned and studied separately until they were put together in 1957.
The 10 standard orders is nothing more than the fire telling you what is safe and what is not. RISK THRESHOLD
Bad decisions with good outcomes–WHAT IS SAFE AND WHAT IS NOT—ORDER #10 Fight Fire Aggressively but Provide for Safety First. It was put there for a reason.
Reply to Robert the Second (RTS) post
on December 14, 2014 at 3:36 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> The link below is to the Fire Management Notes
>> (Volume 55, 1995) with the overall theme of ‘Firefighter
>> Safety and Health.’ The particular citations below are
>> from an article titled” “Beyond the Safety Zone:
>> Creating a Margin of Safety” by Mark Beigley.
>>
>> http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/fmt_pdfs/055_04.pdf
Read it. Thank you. Great document.
However… you had one bad ‘typo’ up above that changed the meaning of one of the sentences in the document.
You typed ‘CANNOT’ in a place where it actually should have been ‘CAN’ ( in relation to it being assumed veteran firefighters are always making the right judgements ).
Paragraph above should have read like this…
( Your EMPHASIS retained, change noted as ‘*CAN*’… )
“The RISK THRESHOLD for all firefighters is DIFFERENT. Every firefighter possesses a different combination of knowledge and experience with which to evaluate the relative safety of the current situation. Firefighters may also have DIFFERENT INFORMATION REGARDING LOCAL FACTORS THAT MIGHT AFFECT FIRE BEHAVIOR. There is an ASSUMPTION THAT VETERAN FIREFIGHTERS HAVE WELL-DEFINED, ACCURATE RISK THRESHOLDS. Also, it is ASSUMED THAT THESE RISK THRESHOLDS *CAN* BE DEPENDED UPON TO PROVIDE A CONSISTENT AND APPROPRIATE ASSESSMENT OF SAFETY FOR ANY GIVEN TACTICAL FIRELINE OPERATION. (ALL EMPHASIS ADDED)
WTKTT,
Thanks for finding my error and thanks for setting things straight.
Reply to Robert the Second (RTS) post
on December 14, 2014 at 3:36 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> The link below is to the Fire Management Notes
>> (Volume 55, 1995) with the overall theme of ‘Firefighter
>> Safety and Health.’ The particular citations below are
>> from an article titled” “Beyond the Safety Zone:
>> Creating a Margin of Safety” by Mark Beigley.
>>
>> http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/fmt_pdfs/055_04.pdf
Once again… thanks to RTS for this link and this document.
Not only should it be REQUIRED reading… I think “there should be a test” and anyone even remotely being considered for a fireline command position should have to PASS the test based on this document or they don’t get hired for the job.
What struck ME the most when reading this (entire) document
( officially published by the US Forestry Service ) is the section
under ‘Margins of Safety’ where they basically say…
“Try not to screw up… but if you do… just use your fire shelters”.
Unbelievable.
From page 22 of the PDF document ( which totals 40 pages )…
——————————————————
CREATING A MARGIN OF SAFETY
A margin of safety can be described as a cushion of time needed by firefighters to get to the safety zone before the fire gets to them.
It is the positive difference of T1 minus T2. In figure 1, the difference is 6 minutes ( 18 minutes minus 12 minutes ), so the firefighters are in a safe position. If T1 equals T2 as in figure 2, the difference is ZERO and the fire and the firefighters arrive at the safety zone at approximately the same time.
Obviously, this situation would not benefit the firefighters; the fire may block their planned escape route.
At best, they would experience a very close call, so they need to evaluate their margin of safety for escape or build a new safety zone.
It the difference is LESS than ZERO as in figure 3 ( T1 is 12 minutes and T2 is 15 minutes equalling -3 minutes ), then it is likely that the fire will reach the firefighters before they get to the safety zone.
While we would hope that firefighters would deploy fire shelters and survive the fire, for a margin of safety, firefighters must arrive at the safety zone before the fire.
——————————————————–
The amount of “No shit, Sherlock” being displayed in this section is astounding… but to just INSERT that suggestion that fire shelters might always be your “get out of fuck-ups free” card at this point in the document is just absurd.
That being said…
This section of this OFFICIAL US Forestry publication could NOT possibly be more relevant to what happened in that single hour of 3:45 PM to 4:45 PM in Yarnell, Arizona, on June 30, 2013
Regardless of the WHY this group attempted that move… they had their ‘T1’ and their ‘T2’ so horribly wrong that it is hard to believe these people had ever even been on a fire before… or had ever even attended even the most basic WFF training class.
It was ( in the end ) a complete a total TACTICAL failure ( regardless of motivations )… and even the preliminary reports should have been acknowledging this fact.
WTKTT,
Jolly good. Could not have said it any better.
Fire shelters are said to be “responsible for saving hundreds of lives and preventing hundreds of injuries.”
Maybe so, however, FOLLOWING THE WFF RULES OF LCES, the TEN STANDARD FIRE ORDERS AND THE 18 WATCH OUT SITUATIONS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SAVING THOUSANDS OF WFF LIVES EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
You can find NO investigation report and/or review anywhere, where a WFF followed all The WFF Rules and ended up burned, in a fire shelter, or a fatality. NO WHERE!
What is astounding to me in that OFFICIAL United States Forestry Service document is that ‘mindset’ that seems to be ‘leaking out’ such as the one pointed out above.
“Drop packs and RUN” is also an ‘officially’ accepted way to try and save your own ass when you have (already) screwed up pretty badly…
…but as this document above shows ( and some other training videos )… it seems as if the USFS doesn’t really like to ‘talk’ about THAT option very much.
Too much dependence on the ‘fire shelter’ shit… and I think THAT ‘mentality’ is very relevant to what happened in Yarnell that horrible day.
If the document above that was going to great lengths to try to explain in some kind of ‘child like’ way that YES… “it’s always better when making a move to make sure you have the TIME to get there before the damn fire does” felt the need to mention any ‘options’ when you have totally screwed up your ‘calculations’…
…then I think it should have at least read like this…
—————————————
“While we would hope that firefighters would EITHER ‘drop packs and run’ or ( as an absolute last resort ) deploy fire shelters to POSSIBLY survive the fire, for a margin of safety, firefighters must arrive at the safety zone before the fire.
—————————————
Followup…
Maybe it’s just the ‘R’ word in ‘drop packs and run’ that makes the USFS seemingly reluctant to talk about it.
Maybe they think the word RUN just isn’t all that compatible with “the HERO business”.
HEROES (supposedly) don’t RUN.
HEROES (supposedly) ‘stand and fight!’.
All for one… one for all… yada, yada, yada.
“Tends to RUN” Doesn’t ‘look good’ on
the ‘ol HERO resume’.
Even Mike Dudley ( a SENIOR level official in the US Forestry Department ) displayed this ‘mentality’ when he was talking to those firefighters in Utah on June 20, 2014.
He actually called the horror of the deployment site a ‘lesson in cohesiveness’… and then used the term RABBITS for anyone who would NOT tend to lay down and die with his buddies.
Darrell Willis in on record saying how PROUD he was that they all just basically laid down and burned to a crisp ‘together’…. with HONOR ( his words ).
So yeah… maybe it’s the work RUN.
Not compatible with the ‘HERO business’.
Maybe they should change the name of that accepted technique of saving your own damn life to something like…
“Drop packs and reposition”.
HEROES are, in fact, allowed to ‘reposition’.
Sounds like you are just getting into a better spot to do more ass-kicking.
But ‘RUN’?
Nah… that sounds like it will just get you a ‘pink helmet’ award, or something.
WTKTT
First let me say I do not know any Wild Land Fire Fighters or have I known over the past 55 years that call them selves HEROES.
They are not in the HERO business.
They do not have a HERO resume.
There is not a one of us that has not RUN to a Safety Zone at one time. and made sure each and every one of our crew got there. Because we planed in advance and had the time.
Organized runs are always better than a jack rabbit scatter and most were not really runs but hurry up and get there.
The worst scenario is putting your self and crew in a panic run and scatter. #9 Maintain con troll of your Forces at all times.
#6 Be Alert, Keep Calm, Think Clearly Act Decisively.
#5 Post lookouts when there is POSSIBLE danger. The word is POSSIBLE not when you are in danger but before.
If you read and study each order then you will understand #10.
The 18 Situations tell you to STOP step back and plan and implement safety before proceeding.
So we Go back to Granit Mountain they did none of the above and put them selves in a position of Shelter deployment. Their supervisors failed to follow the 10 & 18 and they ended up in their situation that is the fact no matter what the reason.
Reply to Bob Powers post on
December 15, 2014 at 10:12 am
>> Bob Powers wrote…
>>
>> First let me say I do not know
>> any Wild Land Fire Fighters or
>> have I known over the past 55
>> years that call them selves HEROES.
Of course. It’s really more of a matter of how SOCIETY, in general, views them and the work they do. Most FFs just think they are ‘doing their job’. Nothing more. Nothing less. It is SOCIETY itself that tends to label them HEROES.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> They are not in the HERO business.
Well.. yes they are… pretty much… whether they personally care to acknowledge it, or not.
See above. There are few professions in society that sort of automatically get the HERO label attached to them. Firefighting is one of those professions.
I drove by my own State Capitol building just this morning and there are only THREE ‘monuments’ erected there. ( With bronze statues and whatnot ).
One is for World War II veterans.
One is for Vietnam war veterans.
One is for Firefighters.
I think most FFs, while being personally humble, are VERY much aware that they ARE in ‘the hero business’, like it or not.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> Organized runs are always better
>> than a jack rabbit scatter.
Probably so.
Do you think that is what USFS official Mike Dudley was really referring to when he, himself, used the term RABBITS ( in a derisive tone ) in his speed to those Utah FFs?
Was this what he was referring to?
The advantages of a an ‘organized RUN’ to safety versus an ‘every man for himself’ sort of thing?
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> So we Go back to Granit Mountain
>> they did none of the above and
>> put them selves in a position of
>> Shelter deployment. Their
>> supervisors failed to follow the
>> 10 & 18 and they ended up in
>> their situation that is the fact
>> no matter what the reason.
Agree. If you just look at that official US Forestry document that RTS found and what it teaches… they had their T1 and their T2 horribly wrong that day… and paid for that mistake with their lives.
Regardless of motivations… once they set about making the MOVE itself.. it was a horrible TACTICAL error… and can/should be studied further from that perspective alone.
Again there is a huge difference in structure Fire Fighters and wild Land FF.
Structure FF have equipment that allowed them to run into buildings and save people real hero’s.
Wild land Fire Fighters build line and save Forests for the most part. They seldom save structures in the Urban Interface unless they have a lot of time to build line around structures.
They are not trained to put there lives on the line to save people homes or forests,
So no they are not in the Hero business and no they do not get promoted for putting their lives in jeopardy. They get bad Safety ratings.
WTKTT,
When Mike Dudley used the term :RABBITS” in his Utah Fire Authority presentation, that is EXACTLY what he was talking about.
Very on point.
http://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/acc/acc_report.php?acc_id=525&accfm=inv
The Wallowa Alpine Huts accident is a recent one that’s very on point as it involves social rank (lead guide, assistant guide and clients) and a group being led into a terrain trap during a period of considerable hazard, with further violation of what are considered safe travel protocols in that context.
SR,
Yes, this Wallowa Alpine Huts accident is a good one. The danger/warning signs were all there but evidently ignored and/or discounted.
A look at Joys Google Map shows a real problem with a dozer line north of Glen Isla to the BSR.
It is like Boulder strewn land scape. No place for a dozer to do much of any thing and certainly a very slow Indirect line building for a hand Crew.. It was certainty not the place to build fast Dozer line if at all with the bolder strewn land scape. Just my take from experience.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/17613+Westward+Dr,+Yarnell,+AZ+85362/@34.21781,-112.764711,772m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x80d3304c99643251:0x7a2ad746b7f38ff9
Mr. Powers… thank you. Throughout the discussion below I kept waiting from someone ( anyone ) with some good ‘dozer firebreak construction’ experience to actually just go off and look at the same satellite imagery that we KNOW SPGS1 Gary Cordes was looking at that day.
I believe I can see some ‘possibilities there’.
The driveway leading out to the Boulder Springs Ranch was ‘clean as a whistle’ and more than two dozer blades wide… pretty much wider than anything else anyone had even been working on all day long.
I also see a dry creek bed there that *might* also have been used to connect over to the botton of the Sesame area where the dozer loboy was staged. Google Earth shows that it was probably ‘pushable’ with that fixed-blade dozer they had.
But I have never ridden a dozer and been pointing at the ground telling some guy where to push to try and stop a fire. Not even once.
It doesn’t matter what I think. It actually doesn’t matter all that much what any one us HERE thinks… in hindsight.
What is/was essential to the discussion below is what did SPGS Gary Cordes think?
Obviously HE thought there were ‘possibilities’ there or he wouldn’t have even asked BR Hotshot Cory Ball to ‘scout it out’ circa 1600 ( 4:00 PM ).
SPGS1 Gary Cordes had all day to go ‘scout that out’ himself… but I honestly think the situation we are looking at here is that NONE of these ‘professional firefighters’ on the ground that day thought for one minute that the fire was going to be coming into Yarnell during THAT burn cycle.
On the south side of the fire… they were totally focused on those ‘other’ dozer lines… even though anyone with line building experience now seems to say there was no way they had the manpower to do what they were attempting that day. Even if the Arroyo Hotshot vehicle hadn’t broken down and Arroyo had been able to make it… many have said it was just too much line for so little manpower/equipment.
Gary Cordes must have told ADOSH about 4 or 5 times, in his interview, that the REASON for all kinds of things that day was the fire simply ‘outperforming out expectations’.
That sad part is that Air Attack ‘Bravo 3’ had ALL the ‘correct expectations as early as 12:30 PM that day. They knew Granite Mountain was already (quote) “out of the game” even at that early hour… and when they say the other Hotshot team that WAS already there ( Blue Ridge ) just sitting on their asses near their buggies doing nothing at all… that’s when ‘Bravo 3’ decided to put in that ‘desperation’ retardant line right in the middle of the frickin’ ‘gasoline-on-a-stick’ manzanita fuel
So there’s already plenty of evidence ( even from people’s own mouths ) that they were operating from ‘unrealistic’ perspectives in Yarnell that day.
I still maintain that some ‘plan’ to throw in this emergency dozer push to at least try to keep the fire from charging right into that Glen Ilah subdivision that afternoon might have been just one more ‘unrealistic expectation’ on the part of fire management that day… but they were still going to try and do it, anyway, if possible.
Other ‘unrealistic expectations’ on the part of ground forces all day…
1) The night before, SPGS2 Darrell Willis officially noted in his logs that the ‘Double Bar A Ranch’ had very little chance of being protected… but come the morning… there were still TONS of valuable resources out there at that place doing the usual… push a little line, chop a little brush, burnout a little if the winds will let you stuff going on. NONE of that ended making ANY difference… just as Willis had said it wouldn’t the night before.
2) The night before, SPGS1 Gary Cordes said that if the fire even STARTED to come into Yarnell… they really wouldn’t be able to save much at all… but come the morning… there are Hotshot crews ( supposedly ) building line breaks and guys in engines with chainsaws actually cutting some brush in a canyon… like that was going to do ANYTHING. The only real solution for Yarnell was EARLY evacuation, more specific structure protection, MASSIVE Air Support… and all your fingers and toes crossed. Gary Cordes knew all that the night before… but come morning… all these resources are there working on plans with ‘expectations’ that just weren’t even realistic.
3) SPGS2 Darrell Willis himself told ADOSH that the ‘other’ defensive operation there on Model Creek Road would have, itself, been another total failure and waste of time if the wind hadn’t reversed when it did. If the winds had remained from the southwest, that fire was going to jump that Mode Creek Road like a 10 year old hopping over the cracks in the sidewalk and it would have just marched into Peeples Valley. Even according to Willis… there would probably have been ‘total destruction’ in THAT community.
I could go on… but in all these cases the key word is ‘expectation’.
Someone, somewhere… EXPECTED all these things to work despite others ( Like Air Attack Bravo 3 ) knowing damn well they didn’t have a chance.
So the same *might* have been true for this attempt to push dozer line to protect Glen Ilah at the last minute… and someone’s ‘expectation’ that it *might* make a difference.
If they had actually done it… and the fire just jump right over it and destroyed Glen Ilah anyway… then that would be just one more ‘failed expectation’ that could be added to the list above along with all the other ‘work’ they were doing that really didn’t have a chance of making a difference that day.
One of the important ‘Lessons Learned’ from this fire ( even if no one had died ) would be how in the world was so much WORK being done that people now look at ( and testify about ) and admit it didn’t have a chance that day.
Was it all just ‘busy work’? Make it ‘look good’ to prevent lawsuits from property owners?
Earlier evacuations might not have saved any more structures… but it would have made a HUGE difference with regards to people having the TIME to collect up their most valuable possessions and get THEM out of harm’s way.
All of the above is only talking about SUNDAY.
The ‘incorrect assumptions/expectations’ began long before that.
Given the topography, conditions and EXPECTED weather that weekend… the only real cure was prevention.
The minute that DOC crew let that puppy ‘escape’ over that two-track road and start charging down into that valley that night… the ‘realistic’ thing to do would have been to start the evacuations right then and there.
Even former Yarnell Chief Peter Andersen knew that.
He said “Without MASSIVE Air Support in country like this… you might as well just get out there and piss on it… which it looks like that’s all they were doin'”.
A basic lack of enough recourses to accomplish the objectives on the 30th..
Another Dozer and 2 more hand crews would have made a big difference.
Concentrating Air Drops on the Fire its self in support of crews rather than 1000’S of wasted gallons in the middle of a brush field.
Simple but 20/20 hind site.
I know all of these men thought they were just ‘doing their job’… but here we are now still trying to make sense of the decisions being made pretty much that ENTIRE weekend.
MOST of it just doesn’t make any sense.
If you just taken the ‘intel’ that Darrell Willis and Gary Cordes came up with overnight… it’s a wonder the evacuations were NOT being called for first thing in the morning.
People would have been pissed ( since they wouldn’t have been seeing the danger that early in the morning )… but in the end they would have been PRAISING the officials for those ‘early evacuation’ decision(s).
There might also be a lot of people ‘whining’ and ‘hindsighting’ and saying things like “they should have been cutting dozer line all over the place”…
…but I think Arizona Forestry’s decisions ( had they been more realistic ) would be standing up to scrutiny better than the ones their employees DID make that weekend.
I would certainly give just about anything to be hearing people pissing and moaning about how Arizona Forestry decided that cutting dozer lines out in the boondock would be an absolute waste of time, given that topography and those conditions… than to still be trying to figure out why 19 men DIED in the performance of that ‘useless exercise’.
WTKTT,
The real ‘PREVENTION’ for residents of Yarnell would have been them, the YARNELL RESIDENTS, taking responsibility as private land owners, and actually ‘Firewising’ their property and/or performing hazardous fuels reduction weeks to months in advance of fire season on a regular annual basis, around their structures. It is NOT the responsibility of any Government agency or WFF to do that. It is PRIVATE PROPERTY.
This is a link to a July 17, 2013 AZ Central article titled “Brush Clearing Saved Homes – Study: Homeowners who took precautions were saved.’ interesting report by a Washington state-based satellite company.
http://www.azcentral.com/news/arizona/articles/20130715brush-clearing-saved-homes.html
“Almost all the buildings in the burn zone that had been adequately cleared of surrounding brush survived the Yarnell Hill Fire, according to the first known study of the deadly blaze.”
“However, only 63 structures out of 569 in the community, or 11 percent, were properly defended, according to researchers at the Pacific Biodiversity Institute.”
“Of the 63, 60 were safe, while the fate of the other three could not be verified by the Washington state-based conservation-research group, which used satellite imagery and mapping software in its study.”
“The study concluded that Yarnell and Glen Ilah “were not prepared for wildfire,” like the Yarnell blaze, …..”
“The study, funded by donors, cost less than $10,000. The Center for Biological Diversity, a conservation-advocacy group, donated $3,000.”
The AZ Central article concludes with “Although debate continues about what to do to prevent and respond to wildfires, there is little disagreement that they are certain to be more common and more dangerous, as the drought-stricken West continues to fill up with people. Fires like Yarnell’s are inevitable, experts agree”.
“What is not is the loss of 19 firefighters.”
“To prevent that from repeating, Morrison concluded, “There needs to be a thorough, independent investigation of all the factors that contributed to this tragedy. The rationale and wisdom of deploying of a hotshot crew in this chaparral-covered valley during extreme fire weather needs to be addressed by this investigation.””
AGREED, however the SAIT failed to complete a THOROUGH investigation. Moreover, the GMHS, of their own accord, used Bad Decisions With Prior Good Outcomes ‘rationale and wisdom of deploying … [themselves into] this chaparral-covered valley during extreme fire weather’ NO ONE FORCED THEM to leave their perfectly good Safety Zone without the benefit of a REQUIRED LOOKOUT pursuant to LCES and the Ten Standard Fire Orders.
Moreover, the proposed dozer work that you refer to above should/would have triggered MANY of the Watch Out Situations, namely #10 ATTEMPTING A FRONTAL ASSAULT AND #11 UNBURNED FUEL BETWEEN YOU AND THE FIRE. Therefore, a wise and prudent WFF would NOT have engaged in thosedozer operations except all morning long and early afternoon.
“
Reply to Robert the Second (RTS) post
on December 14, 2014 at 4:31 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> The real ‘PREVENTION’ for residents of Yarnell
>> would have been them, the YARNELL RESIDENTS,
>> taking responsibility as private land owners, and
>> actually ‘Firewising’ their property and/or
>> performing hazardous fuels reduction weeks to
>> months in advance of fire season on a regular
>> annual basis, around their structures.
>> It is NOT the responsibility of any Government
>> agency or WFF to do that. It is PRIVATE PROPERTY.
Yes… except for the places where there ‘Government agencies’ HAVE stepped up and REQUIRED people living in high-risk urban interface areas to do something.
Those districts are few and far between… but they do exist.
It’s also about time the INSURANCE companies, themselves, stepped up to bat in this ball game. THEY are the ones who can certainly ‘tell people what they ought to be doing’ and its out of their own self-interest to do so.
People NEVER like to be TOLD what to do… even if it is for their own good… but insurance companies have solved that ongoing problem in a number of other areas related to homeowner’s insurance. Either you do certain things or your policy is null and void if/when you ask THEM to ‘pay up’.
As for Yarnell… YES… it was literally just a “disaster waiting to happen”, and SPGS1 Gary Cordes knew that the minute he arrived in Yarnell at 11:30 PM on Saturday night and was told to start ‘scouting around’ the Yarnell area.
He KNEW there would be very little that could be done if the fire even STARTED to come into that area.
From Gary Cordes’ ADOSH interview…
Q2 = Dave Larsen ( ADOSH / WFA ) ( Rest in Peace )
A = Gary Cordes ( SPGS1 at the Yarnell Hill Fire )
——————————————————–
Q2: Uh, when, when you were looking at all of that stuff and assessing ( the night before ), what were your general thoughts, overall thoughts of Yarnell?
A: Um, huh, my blanket statement to, to uh, the IC and the operations the next morning was that if fire hit this town we would lose it. It’s uh, it was poorly positioned and, and uh, very decadent with everything and um, it, it – we’re gonna lose it. That was the bottom line if fire hit town.
———————————————————
Darrell Willis had a similar evaluation on the ‘north’ side and was told to check out the multi-million dollar “Double Bar A Ranch” area, which was sitting on the ‘front lines’ for fire threat the next morning.
Willis saw the same thing Cordes did in Yarnell. There wasn’t much that they were going to be able to do to ‘save’ anything out at that place.
Yet… in BOTH cases ( Yarnell generally and Double-Bar-A Ranch specifically )… the first thing in the morning TONS of expensive resources are being committed to doing things that were never going to work.
So who was it that didn’t even LISTEN to SPGS1 Gary Cordes or SPGS2 Darrell Willis?
WHO gave the orders for them to start doing all kinds of shit that they ( as professional WFF firefighters themselves ) had already decided wasn’t worth doing?
Type 2 SHORT Team IC Roy Hall?
OPS1 Todd Abel? OPS2 Paul Musser?
We still don’t really know the answer to that.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> From AZCENTRAL article..
>>”…Fires like Yarnell’s are inevitable, experts agree”.
>> “What is not is the loss of 19 firefighters.”
Of COURSE… and if you read the ‘wrongful death’ lawsuits that have been filed this is at the CORE of those suits. You basically CANNOT even file a civil action about just about anything without there being some MONETARY ‘damages’ involved somehow ( even in the case of ‘wrongful death’ filings )… but that isn’t the CORE issue of the suits.
The families all state they want to SEE both Arizona AND US Forestry at least ‘acknowleding’ that the statement above is TRUE and there should be more of an official and visible reaction on their part to what happened in Yarnell.
So far… it’s just “business as usual” from both Arizona and US Forestry.
1) Yes… bad fires are going to continue to happen.
2) Yes… firefighters are going to be dying horrible deaths.
3) Yes… we will continue to build more memorial sites with nice benches and stuff.
Nothing to see here… move along… move along.
The families who filed suit do NOT accept ‘door number 2’… ( or ‘door number 3’ ) and in HONOR of the loved ones THEY have lost… they want to see Arizona and US Forestry NOT accepting it as well.
It’s time they even officially dropped this long-debated “Fight fire aggressively, but provide for safety first” bullshit convoluted mantra.
A good sign that they are ‘paying attention’ to what happened in Yarnell would be for them to OFFICIALLY announce that the NEW mantra is simply…
“Fight Fire Safely”.
Period. End of sentence.
The ‘aggressively’ part that some moron always chose to ADD to the current mantra is AUTOMATICALLY IMPLIED with just the word ‘Fight’. Nothing more needs to be added there and (hence) no implied “Ranger Danger” shit. Of course people will ‘Fight’ the fire. That’s what they are PAID to do… but ‘coming home’ at the end of ANY work shift is ALWAYS the most important thing of all.
>> RTS also wrote…
>>
>> ( Also from the AZCENTRAL article… )
>> “To prevent that from repeating, Morrison
>> concluded, “There needs to be a thorough,
>> independent investigation of all the factors that
>> contributed to this tragedy. The rationale and
>> wisdom of deploying of a hotshot crew in this
>> chaparral-covered valley during extreme
>> fire weather needs to be addressed by
>> this investigation.””
>>
>> AGREED, however the SAIT failed to
>> complete a THOROUGH investigation.
It wasn’t really an ‘investigation’ at all.
It was just a ‘dog and pony’ show.
THEY know that. They DECIDED to NOT do a real investigation, despite every press release that was made surrounding the creation of this SAIT and the actual stated PURPOSE of the unit in the actual ‘Transfer of Authority’ documents that were signed to get them their paychecks.
I still think the taxpayers of the State of Arizona need Mike Dudley and JIm Karels to send back the money they left Arizona with. They didn’t even get what the group was CHARTERED to do… and why the money for it was allocated ( and SPENT ).
>> “The rationale and wisdom of deploying of a
>> hotshot crew in this chaparral-covered valley
>> during extreme fire weather needs to be addressed
>> by this investigation.”
Totally agree.
Those men shouldn’t have really been out in that boondock at all that day… or at least not then be told ( by some SPGS guy who didn’t even consider himself to be a Structure Protection Specialist ) that their ‘Safety Zone’ was just shy of 2 ( TWO ) MILES away from them. That’s just idiotic ( as well as a violation of rules unto itself ).
When Air Attack ‘Bravo 3’ ( Rusty Warbis and Paul Lenmark ) arrived over the fire circa NOON… and then finally took a full ‘spin’ around the fire to do a professional situational analysis… THEY already knew ( as early as 12:30 PM ) that Granite Mountain was (quote) “out of the game already”.
Those men should have been hiking BACK to their vehicles as early as 1:00 PM that day… and we wouldn’t be here having this discussion.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> Moreover, the proposed dozer work that you
>> refer to above should/would have triggered
>> MANY of the Watch Out Situations, namely
>> #10 ATTEMPTING A FRONTAL ASSAULT AND
>> #11 UNBURNED FUEL BETWEEN YOU AND THE FIRE.
>> Therefore, a wise and prudent WFF would NOT
>> have engaged in those dozer operations except
>> all morning long and early afternoon.
Agreed… but I can find no evidence in the public record that when Blue Ridge Hotshot Cory Ball ( acting as HEQB because the contracted one, Joeseph Hernandez, didn’t even bother to show up in Yarnell that morning ) was TOLD by SPGS1 Gary Cordes ( circa 4:00 PM ) to ‘scout out’ the possibility of dozer line out there near the Boulder Springs Ranch in order to protect Glen Ilah… that Cory Ball then said to SPGS Gary Cordes…
“What… are you NUTS?”
The only entry I can see in Cory Ball’s Unit Log is as follows…
—————————————–
1600…
Structure group one assigns me and ONE OTHER to
locate possibility of DOZER LINE to southwest of Yarnell.
—————————————–
There is no entry AFTER that from Ball saying…
“…and I thought he was out of his mind”.
Ball ( apparently ) said “Aye, aye, sir!” and proceeded to TRY and accomplish that ‘mission’.
At 4:00 PM that day… SPGS1 Gary Cordes ( who didn’t even consider HIMSELF to be a Structure Protection Specialist ) thought it might be a ‘viable option’ even at that late hour… and this ‘command’ to (acting) HEQB Cory Ball would have taken place on a radio channel that DIVSA Eric Marsh could, himself, HEAR.
WTKTT
Your Idea and a Fire Fighters Idea of what Fight Fire aggressively means is in the interpolation.
1. Attack the fire at the point of burning flank and build line with all the tools at your command.
2. Remove hazards like snags before they burn and fall. pay attention to falling rocks and rolling logs.
3. Engines attack the flames and build line behind the water spray knock the fir down and move with line..
4. Many more techniques you are taught basically aggressive is attacking the fire with the equipment you have finding the best location to suppress the fire and building line direct and indirect.
Your safety depends on your knowledge and training.
All of the above with SAFETY FIRST. Thousands of fires are fought this way and none are Fatality Fires.
It is a mind set that has worked for generations. Its knowing Fire, its knowing the proper use of the tools you have and its planning safety into each step you make.
Again I did that for 33 years never deployed a fire shelter, never had a serious injury on my crews and had a lot of great ratings for accomplishing my assignment.
You are in a hostile environment besides the fire the terrain the mountain, the Snags the rocks and the fuel type as well as the weather can be your enemy.
Then you fall to your crew all at different levels of training the tools you Carrie and how they are used.
Old School we never dropped tools or packs and Ran we were taught what we had we might need even at a safety zone. Water, Fire shelter, Tools.
Some books taught and still teach that the fire shelter was your fail safe. Back then we taught the fire shelter was your last resort never depend on it to save your life and you will never need it. I spent the first 7 years as a Fire fighter with out a Fire Shelter They weren’t available till 1967/68.
We learned and drilled our self’s on the 10 & 13 that was our safety That was our learning curve. After watching the first training films on Fire shelters for years after we called them POTATO BAKERS, but it was mandatory we packed them. If you were good and followed the 10& 13
you would never need a Fire shelter proven fact.
So to me and many old Fire Fighters Rule number 10 tells you to follow all the other rules when you hit the fire line an start throwing dirt keep your heads up pay attention and be safe. and attack the fire.
WTKTT
The best and most important thing you will find on Balls assignment is he went there and left the fire was already there no use to try Dozer line, too late….
Mr. Powers… if you are talking about when Ball finally borrowed that ATV from Yarnell Fire department and then was on his way BACK to rejoin Justin and the dozer… then yes… the fire was now already ‘spotting’ into Glen Ilah and he couldn’t get back to the dozer.
But according to Ball’s Unit Log… Gary Cordes gave him the actual assignment circa 4:00 PM. The fire was still just approaching at that time.
WTKTT,
Good points above, however, you mention “that their ‘Safety Zone’ (SZ) was just shy of 2 ( TWO ) MILES away from them. That’s just idiotic ( as well as a violation of rules unto itself).
Actually NOT ‘idiotic’ or ‘a violation of rules.’ I have been on several fires where our SZ was that far or farther away from where we were building line. You just need to Base All Actions on Current and EXPECTED Fire Behavior and allow yourself and your Crew the time you need to arrive in your SZ BEFORE the fire.
Only in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) training course does it tell us to have a SZ within minutes away. LCES is an ongoing process and you just need to re-evaluate throughout the Operational Period how long it will take you and your Resources to safely arrive in your predetermined SZ BEFORE THE FIRE ARRIVES.
There was NO logical basis for the GMHS to LEAVE their perfectly good SZ when they did. And their twisting the use of an Escape Route to LEAVE a SZ makes no sense. You use and Escape Route to get TO a SZ, NOT from a SZ.
Well… I think you just supported what I said. You just said that WUI SZ’s are never supposed to be 2 miles away?
WTKTT,
You are right. I guess I did support what you were saying because the YHF was predominately all WUI which calls for SZ locations to be within minutes.
Reply to Robert the Second post
on December 15, 2014 at 9:40 am
>> RTS said…
>>
>> There was NO logical basis for the
>> GMHS to LEAVE their perfectly
>> good SZ when they did.
No, there wasn’t… but we left ‘logic’ behind a long time ago with regards to decisions people were making pretty much that entire weekend.
>> RTS also said…
>>
>> And their twisting the use of an Escape
>> Route to LEAVE a SZ makes no sense.
>>
>> You use an Escape Route to get TO
>> a SZ, NOT from a SZ.
Correct…
There is still NO evidence that those men felt ‘uncomfortable’ in any way up there in those acres and acres of cold black… and that might be the reason they were deciding to move to ANOTHER ‘Safety Zone’.
Unless Brendan McDonough ( or someone else ) can shed more light on their decision making process… that will probably remain one of the biggest mysteries.
WHAT became so important to 2 men other than being safe that they would agree between themselves to then lead 17 other men to what would turn out to be their deaths?
Again… what we KNOW…
1555 – Everyone at rest in safe black, taking photos.
1600 – Cory Ball told to scout dozer line near BSR
1604 – GM is now up and moving south to BSR
1616 – Someone calls GM and asks for status
1617 – Eric Marsh says ‘GM taking escape route’
1627 – Someone calls DIVSA, wants to know where GM is and what is taking so long to reach town.
1635 – SPGS1 Gary Cords KNOWS GM is either already at BSR or about to arrive and tells Tyson Esquibel to send an engine there to make sure they (quote) “get out safely”.
1637 – DIVSA (supposedly) calls Air Attack to confirm what he thought was a line-up flight for a retardant drop right near the same area where Cordes had told Ball to ‘scout a dozer line’.
1639 – First MAYDAY call from Jesse Steed.
WTKTT,
You posted “There is still NO evidence that those men felt ‘uncomfortable’ in any way up there in those acres and acres of cold black… and that might be the reason they were deciding to move to ANOTHER ‘Safety Zone’.”
There is NEVER a good reason to leave one perfectly good SZ for another. And certainly NOT when the GMHS supervisors decided to leave, when the fire behavior was pulsing at its strongest.
Brendan McDonough knows WHY they left.
Reply to Robert the Second (RTS) post
on December 15, 2014 at 9:44 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> Brendan McDonough knows WHY they left.
There’s really never been any doubt about that.
If Brendan does NOT know… then he wasn’t actually doing what he SAID he would be doing, was he?
He TOLD his Captain ( Jesse Steed ) that he would be ‘listening for a call’ the entire time he was separated from them just in case they needed something ( anything ).
He also told ADOSH that HIS BK portable had its ‘priority channel’ set to the GM intra-crew frequency. All day. No question.
Yea… Brendan heard it all.
.
**
** TRANSCRIPT OF AARON HULBURD’S (FINAL?) VIDEO – M2U00278
As it turns out… there IS some background conversation in this final video ( that we know of ) shot by Prescott off-the-radar hire Aaron Hulburd.
This video is only 8.512 seconds long… but at the very end someone says…
“The most lasting question will be…”
The video abruptly CUTS OFF before the next word is even said.
This video is *supposed* to be totally unredacted… but I actually find it highly unlikely that Aaron Hulburd would have cut his camera off at that exact moment OR that Hulburd would actually only shoot an 8.5 second video with his Helmet Camera. That wasn’t his ‘style’.
The person who was speaking sounds very much like BR Captain Trueheart Brown.
The voice is a ‘voice match’ for other recordings we have of Brown’s voice.
* M2U00278 – Start: 1946 ( 7:46 PM ) ( Approx ) – Length: 8.512 seconds
Short video shot near dark from back at the ‘descent point’.
The video looks back across the box canyon, the Boulder Springs Ranch,
and shows spot fires still burning over in the Glen Ilah area.
For June 30, 2013… in Central Arizona…
Sunrise: 5:22 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
From BR Captain Brown’s GPS data…
1945 – 34.221022, -112.781755 – 0101.493 – 01.15 – Heading west back up to ridge
1946 – 34.221279, -112.782115 – 0143.222 – 01.63 – Arrival back on two-track on top of ridge
1947 – 34.221816, -112.782378 – 0209.375 – 02.38 – Heading northwest on two-track now
TRANSCRIPT FOR M2U00278
—————————————————
Video length is 8.512 seconds
+0:01
(Foreground: Unknown): ( For the ?? )
+0:06
(Foreground: Unknown): The most lasting question’ll be… ( Video ends abruptly )
—————————————————
END OF VIDEO M2U00278
Followup…
I think the actual ‘takeaway’ from the discovery of this ‘final’ (partial) statement in (supposedly) Aaron Hulburd’s final video from that day would be that this actually constitutes *evidence* that there were no ‘secret revelations’ down at the deployment site amongst the men who assembled there.
Surely… as ANY of those firefighters were overlooking that scene the ‘lasting question’ in their minds was along the lines of “How in the HELL did they get caught HERE… and what the HELL were they trying to accomplish?”.
I think that actually IS what got ‘cut off’ at the end of this video and what we would have heard Captain Brown actually say.
No one was more involved in the discovery of the bodies and the sharing of information that took place shortly after that than Blue Ridge Captain Trueheart Brown.
He was there at the site longer than any other (living) FF.
He walked EAST to the BSR with all FIVE FFs and DPS Medic Eric Tarr.
He was there at the BSR when the (three) ‘Incident Within an Incident’ people arrived.
He walked these three IWI commanders BACK to the deployment site.
He was THERE at the site as these IWI commanders had their own initial reactions.
For Captain Brown to then arrive back up at the top of the ridge where they had left their UTV’s and still have this ‘question’ in his mind just seems to indicate that at NO time while he was DOWN there and interacting with all the other FFs and the IWI commanders did anyone really offer any kind of ‘explanation’ to that (quote) “lasting question”.
I think if someone HAD… we would have never heard Brown making this comment that he does at the end of this Hulburd video.
here is some of the photos—the camera battery died in course of obtaining photos PLUS she was evicted today- some of the local horseshit that is going on…so she had to go but there is more because I saw them over in the Helm’s area so SHE IS A PERSON OF INTEREST TO SEE AGAIN HOPEFULLY because she was evicted and she does not have the capabilities to get the rest to me—just by chance I caught here at the Yarnell Library and she came to me—I try not to go to people the way the politics are rolling—I may suggest the YHF topic in certain spots but not in the Yarnell library…she had 213 in just the one file and only got 76 items off it of the YHF topic…
the link file belongs to Yarnell resident just got evicted; Jolene Aikman Verizon 4GLte Beats Audio LTC really banged up phone.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jt66qfs77la0fbh/IMAG0052.jpg?dl=0
Bob Powers says
DECEMBER 12, 2014 AT 9:01 PM
Sonny or Joy
Just for curiosity— Did anyone rehab the Dozer lines? Like water bars and seeding or are they as they left them??????
The dozer line remains the same but Don Mason here in Yarnell said seeding was done throughout the community more in town vs state land areas.
Followup…
>> On December 12, 2014 AT 9:01 PM, Bob Powers asked…
>>
>> Just for curiosity— Did anyone rehab the Dozer lines?
>> Like water bars and seeding or are they as they left them??????
On July 26, 2013, Arizona Forestry send some DOC crews to Yarnell to do some ‘rehab’… but their focus was only the deployment site itself. There had been heavy rains in the area and they were installing ‘water bars’ and over 400 sandbags to help keep the site from flooding.
From KTAR ( Arizona ) article…
Prison Firefighting Crew and Others Working to Protect Hallowed Ground in Yarnell
http://ktar.com/22/1651407/Prison-firefighting-crew-and-others-working-to-protect-hallowed-ground-in-Yarnell
From the article…
———————————
YARNELL — Almost one month after the Yarnell Hill wildfire took the lives of 19 Granite Mountain hotshots, crews are at work trying to protect the site where they died from flooding out.
Yarnell received heavy rain Friday. Jim Paxon with the Arizona State Forestry said a 20-person firefighting crew from Lewis Prison along with others from various state agencies have moved into the canyon to place 400 sandbags where the 19 firefighters deployed their shelters on June 30.
“All of that water has to go somewhere,” Paxon said. “There’s no brush, grass, vegetation to hold the water back. This is steep country. It comes out of these canyons with a lot of velocity.”
The prison crew helping deploy sandbags Friday was on the Yarnell Hill fire Saturday June 29 and worked through June 30. The Lewis crew is one of five prison firefighting teams. Four made up of all men, the other crew is all women.
———————————
Same reporting as above… but THIS report actually has HELICOPTER footage of the actual work that was taking place out at the deployment site.
You can see the flooding at the deployment site… and what they were trying to do about it. The ‘water bars’ that they also placed on the northwest side of the fenced area can still be seen in the current ‘Google Maps’ satellite imagery of the deployment site area.
I count at least 30 or 32 men on the ground there in the HELICOPTER footage and at least 3 vehicles there at the deployment site.
WBTV (3) News
Yarnell Hill Fire: Sandbags Placed Near Firefighters’ Memorial
http://www.wbtv.com/story/22942186/yarnell-residents-prepare-for-flooding
WTKTT and JOY thanks some interesting information.
Marti-
you will be PROUD. Sonny and I took the time out to learn how to dropbox…John Dougherty will be proud too.
It is something we had not thought of because we simply just emailed you all the material and let you figure it out but the photos Jolene Aikman just started to download came on the pc and I have limited time before pc shuts down automatically so I am hurrying to figure out a way to get them up without having to remember email log-ins and so there you have it- her camera is broke and I can share that photo on Sunday of her phone condition.of the phone I took with my phone…all the files did not make it to pc but have no clue what yet came up but I finally have one completed task best we could due to her phone…yet she and I both saw more photos on her phone that we know DID NOT make it to the pc.
Let me go figure out how to link the files to here.
be back.
State land, Private and only 3% Federal —I don’t think they had time to do much dozing once the fire blew up. It was encouraged with up to 45 mile per hour gusts and you can see those trees swaying from the winds. Considering that there is only about three miles from the actual place of beginning to Yarnell and that fired had worked it down the mountain a good mile toward Peeples Valley then it was within Yarnell probably only a couple miles by 2 PM. Now once that wind switched violently they said that burn was moving at about 11mph. That means Yarnell only had a window of about 10 minutes if that wind had went directly at Yarnell. It did not however, but was almost completely reversed as far as I could tell from where we were going over the mountain. I don’t have access to the wind pattern but it appears that it had a more south eastwarly direction at first but then mountains and those ridges in the lower elevations such as the ridge to the north of the basin and the ridge to the south of the basin would divide currents of wind and cause some turbulence so that directions down low would be differently divided than those currents going over the mountain. Going toward Yarnell then we see they would have had a bit more time than those men in the basin– that fire going uphill with the heat helping its progress directly toward those men had to be much faster than the fire going on the level and at an angle to Yarnell proper. I wonder if 11 mph is just what the state is saying or rather in fact that uphill draft of fire might have been more on the order of 22 mph. That would mean once they saw it coming at them from around the north ridge, the fire only had about 3/4 mile of burn and they had only 2 minutes at 22 mph or if the state is right at 11 minutes they had only 4 minutes. Looking at the brush they moved maybe an estimate could be made. My estimate would be that they only had time to make their way to the boulders– apparently
WTKTT—Brought this to the Top
Gust wanted to note that at least 2/3 of this Fire was on private Land.
It started on State and burned out into private so the fire overhead had some problems with any thing they did on the Private land. Actually building Dozer line north of Glen Isla was all private Not sure how many owners involved but they had a huge problem with just dg a 30 ft. Dozer push with out authority from land owners. It is crazy but on non public lands you are restrained by private property rules. Something I just started talking about today.
I noted Sonny or Joy said something about a home owner that was upset with a Dozer push on his property. So I would assume some Private Property Owners would not allow a Dozer line thru their property, it happens a lot in wild land fire suppression. So their open land burns and you move on.
As a wild land fire suppression organization you are tied to private property rules and it can be a huge road block. And can end in huge law suits if you just bowl thru private property regardless of the emergency.
So I am saying just another thing that with out prior approval could stop a dozer line dead in its tracks. I did not realize how much private land was involved on this fire till I checked the Map.
I would suggest the Team had a lot more problems.
Check out this comprehensive and extensive document ( pages) titled “Wildland Fire Protection and Response in the United States – The Responsibilities, Authorities, and Roles of Federal, State, Local, and Tribal Government” compiled and written by The International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC), Donald K. Artley, Contractor, August, 2009.
https://www.iafc.org/files/wild_MissionsProject.pdf
Very informative and should shed some light on what Bob Powers is referring to.
159 pages
I just read through that report:
“Wildland Fire Protection and Response in the United States – The Responsibilities, Authorities, and Roles of Federal, State, Local, and Tribal Government” compiled and written by The International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC), Donald K. Artley, Contractor, August, 2009.
Thanks a lot for that post. Very interesting.
Within the “Arizona Appendix” under
Arizona State Forestry Division Wildland Fire Protection: (page 7 of the Appendix)
It says, among a number of things:
“Authorities:
• Respond to wildfires on any lands in the state, regardless of whether or not an
agreement is in place, if the State Forester determines that suppression actions are
in the best interests of this state or are immediately necessary to protect state
lands.
• Enter private lands in performing fire suppression duties.”
That sounds to me like the State Forester has the authority to
• Enter private lands in performing fire suppression duties.”
That sounds to me like it has the authority to put a dozer line where it deems necessary.
It also says, just before that:
“Responsibilities: Arizona Revised Statutes 37-623 (Suppression of wildfires; powers and duties of State Forester; entry on private lands.)
• The State Forester has the responsibility for wildfire suppression outside of
incorporated municipalities, subject to a cooperative agreement. If the State has a
signed agreement with a local fire district or volunteer fire department, then it is
required to provide services as defined in the agreement. Through its programs,
the Forestry Division protects approximately 22.4 million acres of state and
private lands.”
Yep. No other way to read that other than basically Arizona Forestry Employees ( temp contractors included ) can basically do whatever the hell they want and they don’t need your permission.
That will get interesting in the property damage lawsuits.
Just because someone wrote that into some document… does that mean it is actually lawful and binding?
WTKTT said:
Just because someone wrote that into some document… does that mean it is actually lawful and binding?
Arizona Revised Statutes = the law of the land in Arizona
Ah…okay… yes… thanks. I thought that was just in some IAFC document appendix or something but it does seem to be codified AZ law.
I still under how these ‘ implied permissions’ are going to play out with the people that had their lots flattened ( without their permission ) AFTER the fire.
Smartphone spell checker strikes again. ‘under’ should have been ‘wonder’.
I do not know about Arizona but the FS and BLM
Go back after the fire and put in water Bars and reseed
Dozer lines and repair any other damages.
Also if Municipalities have any other written agreements with private property owners those as well have to be followed.
Good Catch Marti I did not see that last night so that would make a difference in Arizona and suppression Tactics.
Reply to Bob Powers post on
December 12, 2014 at 2:44 pm
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> I do not know about Arizona but the FS
>> and BLM Go back after the fire and put in
>> water Bars and reseed Dozer lines and
>> repair any other damages.
I don’t see anything in the Arizona Law that REQUIRES Arizona Forestry to do any of that…
http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/ars/37/00623.htm&Title=37&DocType=ARS
…but that doesn’t mean they don’t try.
I mean… c’mon. It’s the right thing to do once you willy-nilly tear up someone’s property due to some obscure line item in some obscure ‘fire fighting’ statute that very few Arizona property owners are probably even aware exists.
Sonny or Joy
Just for curiosity— Did anyone rehab the Dozer lines? Like water bars and seeding or are they as they left them??????
Yep. Statute. I think there’s various versions of that type of law on the books in various places. But, according to the report, it all varies a lot, also.
Also, there WAS a “Yavapai County Community Wildfire Protection Plan” very much in place. It’s in “K- Reference Docs -no redactions.pdf.” It included Yarnell.
I’m having some trouble finding anything more detailed about that, unfortunately, becuz I’m having trouble with the Adobe Reader plug-in for my Safari today, and I’m too busy doing other stuff to reboot.
But that was the basis for the BLM 2009-2014 grant related to Yarnell’s unfinished fuels mitigation and defensive fire-line construction project.
The nuance I’ve noticed is there is a difference between ASDF having “authority” and “responsibility.”
Without a Wildfire Protection Plan, ASDF is only “authorized” to fight fires on private land. But it doesn’t HAVE to, unless it deems it essential to protect state interests.
However, WITH a Wildfire Protection Plan, ASDF is “responsible” for fighting fire on private lands within that Wildfire Protection Plan. It’s legally REQUIRED for them to do that, via that statute.
So given that, I’m guessing, when Yarnell joined the Yavapai County Wildfire Protection Plan, that WAS, as somebody here postulated, when the various private landholders were brought into that Agreement.
Because, in order for the Plan to statutorily PROTECT them, they had to AGREE to the terms, i.e. ASDF not only COULD, but HAD TO, be able to operate on their land-holdings.
So, no, they won’t be able to get any $$$ for dozer lines (or probably retardant dumps, either).
And, probably (I would guess), that Plan would also protect ASFD from complaints about the ASFD Duty-Officer-Cum-Type4-Incident-Commander Musser exercising his authority and responsibiity to determine the nature and timing of the Initial Attack, no matter what the Congress Fire Department folks complained about later.
I don’t know who it was (probably the Yarnell Fire Chief) who determined the fire was beyond the capability of local resources to respond to, and then called in the higher powers. But once that happened, it was ASFD’s game.
By the way, when Yarnell entered into that Plan, it was Anderson who was the Fire Chief and was the point-man for Yarnell for making that happen.
So there’s that.
Brain Fart. Not Musser, but Shumate.
Acutal codified AZ legislation is here…
http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/ars/37/00623.htm&Title=37&DocType=ARS
Item G under this Article 1, Chapter 2.1 of
Title 37 – Public Lands ) says…
——————————————
G. The state forester may enter private lands in performing the duties under this section.
——————————————
That would appear to only allow carte-blanche ENTRY onto provide lands but the ‘performing the duties under this section would automatically include the item ABOVE it…
——————————————
A. The state forester shall have authority to prevent and suppress any wildfires on state and private lands located outside incorporated municipalities
——————————————
So the SUPPRESS authority ( and whatever it takes to do that ) would automatically follow the ENTRY authority specifically established later on with Item G.
Bottom Line: If there WAS any kind of ‘plan’ starting to come together late afternoon on June 30, 2013 to push more dozer line ( across private property ) to protect Glen Ilah… SPGS1 Gary Cordes ( or whoever was having the ‘idea’ and/or ‘plan’ ) didn’t need to waste one second worrying about obtaining any ‘permissions’.
Thanks for that link!
Reply to Bob Powers post December 11, 2014 at 5:22 pm
Mr. Powers… I am sure everything you are pointing out is true… and ‘by the book’., including the other stuff down below about EPA regulations, State Historic Societies, Archaeologists, and a host of other people all wanting to have ‘input’ before someone just starts digging up ground with a bulldozer. Makes sense.
However… I also don’t see ANY evidence that ANYONE associated with fire command in Yarnell on June 30, 2013 ( and beyond ) gave one hoot in crap about ANY of that.
Only thing that comes even remotely close is when the dozer came across that ‘locked white gate’ in the middle of that cutover road ( which ran through a lot of PRIVATE property )… instead of just destroying it… the dozer just blasted AROUND it and left the thing intact complete with lock and chain.
The complaint you are referring to from down below came from Sonny… and it was about some property owners in the MIDDLE of the Glen Ilha subdivision returning from the long term evacuation and finding that someone had totally levelled their homesite with a dozer… destroying ANY chance of them recovering ANYTHING of value from it. They were not notified or informed or approached for ANY permission for them to do that.
I believe that happened to any number of other property owners as they were ‘evacuated’ and away from their properties.
And YES… I believe anyone who had that done to them is now part of the 100+ property damage lawsuits that have been filed.
So.. can YOU find anything in the public record that indicates ANYONE in Yarnell was paying ANY attention to ANY of the things you are now ‘pointing out’ about how you are *supposed* to go about utilizing a dozer on a wildfire?
I think this might be one more case where you are ( and rightly so ) pointing out what SHOULD have happened… but I still contend there were many, many things happening in Yarnell that were no where near CLOSE to being ‘by the book’.
I think ‘the book’ was somewhere sitting with the ‘Action Plan’ and all the MAPS that should have been handed out to people working the fire.
In other words… somewhere where no one could find it.
Bottom line… I think if there HAD been a plan to push and emergency dozer line there to try and protect Yarnell… SPGS1 Gary Cordes was not going to give a shit about anything of the things you are saying he was supposed to. He would have ( excuse the pun ) PLOWED AHEAD ( no time to lose ) and dealt with any ‘whining’ after the fact.
Nicely stated,total agreement.
Were you agreeing with me or WTKTT????
The Real problem is that all Fire agencies and their Teams are charged with these rules and if not followed are subject to law suits and removal of their ratings as type 1,2,3 Team overhead I can guarantee you on federal land if you do Dozer line it has to be cleared by Archeologists. If you cross private land you better have a written agreement with the land owner before you go thru fences or gates. with a dozer.
If as you say they were just plowing ahead then the State is Liable for all damages
Fire teams train not to do that and get access on private property.
I trained and lived with this for 33 years you need to do some research before you jump off of that cliff.
It is not what should be done but what is mandatory of wild land fire suppression responsibilities. In the west there are a lot of property owners that do not believe the Government all forms have any right on there property with out their express permission. Some areas wont even allow Dozers to build fire line and only Hand tools are allowed.
So if you believe Arizona state Fire has a right to plow thru private property with out permission you are wrong and again all Teams are trained in working with the property owners. Why –To eliminate Law suits.
I hear what you are saying Bob, but I don’t believe this team eliminated lawsuits with their actions-or lack of.
OK I can agree with that but they had to be operating under some kind of State protocol. I have understood the IC was well qualified and Certified.
at the Type 2 level which means he had some certification training.
To answer WTKTT below here.
The Local Fire Marshal would be doing the contact and getting the permission that is usual the local county fire assignment but we do not have that info one way or the other.
I doubt the public record would contain that info.
Were the Fire Team suppose to do the pre work yes did thy on the dozer line they worked on most of the day I don’t know, It could have been a verbal with County Fire Marshal?
Again Ball would not have been doing that under his job assignment. Or Cordis. The IC would be working with local County Fire Marshal or a person of that caliber to have them working with the private land owners to get what ever permission they needed.
I would not know where to start looking if there is no agreement in the records.
So I will bow to your superior Fire knowledge and your years of experience in building Line with Dozers and all of your previous experience with Coop agreements for Fire Suppression between agencies.
Which by the way all of the above I have and IC Mouser has been trained as well. So if he was not following State Procedures and Team protocol then The state better have really deep pockets.
I have a hard time believing the Team was operating in that fashion they had more experience than that. There is a lot more to Managing a Fire than just Fighting it. The Word Is MANAGE.
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> The IC would be working with local County Fire Marshal
>> or a person of that caliber to have them working with
>> the private land owners to get what ever permission
>> they needed.
Copy that.
Most of the two-tracks that they were trying to improve that day were actually ALREADY (originally) ‘cut’ as part of a ‘fire plan’ anyway.
In his interview with InvestigativeMEDIA ( Specifically Mr. John Dougherty himself )… former Yarnell Chief Peter Andersen said those ‘two-tracks’ were cut some years before as the result of an evaluation of ‘evacuation routes’ in the event of a disaster such as exactly what was happening on June 30, 2013.
That VIDEO interview is HERE on YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFObh-fNOl8
Chief Andersen did a study and they realized that in the even of a really bad wildfire… they needed to have ‘alternate escape routes’ for citizens to either ‘escape’ from the Glen Ilah area up to the Yarnell area… or vice versa.
So that is what that actual ‘Cutover Trail’ was all about… and it WAS cut through what is essentially all ‘private property’.
So I am assuming when they cut that original ‘Cutover Trail’ between Sesame area and Shrine road… Chief Andersen DID have the time to obtain whatever ‘permissions’ were needed to do that.
What I am wondering, then, is whether some of the property owners in the area actually did sign some kind of ‘standing agreements’ that in the case of an emergency… firefighters had some kind of ‘carte-blanche’ permission to do whatever they needed to do, when the time came.
If those agreements were ‘on file’ with the Yarnell Fire Department… then the Yarnell Fire Chief on June 30, 2013 ( Jim Koile ) would probably have been already aware of them.
As it turns out… we know now that Jim Koile had an assignment as the “Medical Officer’ for the Type 2 Short Team and he was stationed up there most of the day at the ICP at the Model Creek Elementary school.
That’s where Roy Hall was ensconced in the principal’s office just totally absorbed with the resource ordering for TOMORROW.
So I suppose its possible that if anybody ( like SPGS1 Gary Cordes ) was giving a crap about ‘permissions’ that day… he might have been able to just check with YFD Chief Jim Koile about it.
I doubt it… but as you can see… even I’m not 100 percent sure there weren’t scenarios where it MIGHT have been happening.
Rest assured that I UNDERSTAND your reluctance to admit that there was any possibility DIVSA Eric Marsh could have even been AWARE of this ‘thinking’ or ‘planning’ on SPGS1 Gary Cordes’ part for any kind of last-ditch effort there near Glen Ilah.
There is NO direct evidence that DIVSA Eric Marsh even HEARD these ‘orders’ going out to HEQB Cory Ball… even though they WOULD have been ‘going out’ over a TAC channel that DIVSA should have been able to hear.
There is also NO direct evidence (yet) that Gary Cordes made a cellphone call to DIVSA explaining ‘the plan’.
I ( me, personally ) am just still keeping an ‘open mind’ about it and I am looking ( as you are ) for that ‘next piece of evidence’ that *might* shed more light on this.
I believe it remains a *possible* explanation why 19 Hotshots *might* have been moving from an absolutely safe location to a place where they all ended up dying.
WTKTT
I needed a time out I was not cool last night and I apologize.
You stated above what I was getting at. The Two traks could have been access areas agreed to with land owners and used to build Dozer lines. My main concern was just doing a Dozer push out thru the middle of no where following nothing.
I am sure you hit on what I was getting at that there had been some local work to get agreements in place all I was saying that those agreements needed to be followed before Dozer lines were put in.
So I will leave it there and move on but still looking for more facts to GM’s move.
Copy that. No apology necessary.
This all got resolved up above as Marti found the actual Arizona LEGISLATION that allows Arizona Forestry to basically do whatever the hell they want WITHOUT having to obtain any pesky permissions from anyone at all.
That codified Arizona LAW is here…
http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/ars/37/00623.htm&Title=37&DocType=ARS
So the bottom line here is that IAOI ( If And Only If ) there really was any kind of real ‘plan’ coming together to push some emergency dozer line there to protect Glen Ilah in the late afternoon… SPGS1 Gary Cordes ( or whoever was really pushing ‘the plan’ ) didn’t have to waste one single second asking for any ‘permissions’.
Not in Arizona, anyway.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> So I will leave it there and move on but
>> still looking for more facts to GM’s move.
Me too.
yes – organize the choas, develop and impliment a plan based on solid strategy and tactics and manage the incident.
Reply to Bob Powers post on December 11, 2014 at 7:10 pm
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> So if you believe Arizona state Fire has a right to plow thru
>> private property with out permission you are wrong and
>> again all Teams are trained in working with the property
>> owners. Why –To eliminate Law suits.
Again… I am sure your ‘what SHOULD have happened’ information is totally correct. I am trying to point out to you what DID ( and did NOT ) happen on June 30, 2013.
There is NO EVIDENCE SPGS1 Gary Cordes contacted ANY land owners in the Yarnell area for ANY of the ‘dozer work’ that was done that day… nor would he have bothered to do so for any *additional* dozer work, had he had the chance to order it done that afternoon.
Zero. Zip. Nada.
You can SEE exactly who owned all the parcels being bulldozed that day for ‘line work’. with an easy-to-use online tool…
Yavapai County Tax Assessor’s Online Website
Interactive Parcel Search/Information map.
http://gis.yavapai.us/v4/
You can just ‘zoom around’ all of Yavapai County, including all of Yarnell, and just ‘click’ on parcels to see who the registered owner is.
** THE ‘CUTOVER’ TRAIL ( BULLDOZED LINE BREAK )
The EAST 3/4 of it was on ‘Private Land’ pacel 203-05-001A belonging to…
Owner: S&P FAMILY TRUST
Owner’s Mailing Address:
13020 PACIFIC PROMENADE UNIT 405
PLAYA VISTA, CA 900944020
Secondary Owner: CHUNG JACKIE J SURVIVING TTEE
The other WEST 1/4 of it was on ‘Private Land’ parcel 203-05-003H
Owner: BALUCO TRUST
Owner’s Mailing Address:
PO BOX 98 YARNELL, AZ 853620098
Secondary Owner: N/A
The BALUCO TRUST parcel not only included the western 1/4 of the ‘Cutover Trail’… it also includes pretty much ALL of the ‘Sesame Clearing’ area where both the Granite Mountain and Blue Ridge Carriers were parked AND it extends down to that area to the south where the loboy trailer for the dozer was staged all day and where the Blue Ridge Chase Truck ( with UTV trailer ) was also staged all day.
If the dozer had just started plowing land due southwest from where its loboy trailer was staged directly towards the Boulder Springs Ranch… there are basically only TWO private parcels it would been going through to make it all the way to the outcroppings at the northeast corner of the Boulder Springs Ranch.
The parcel just due WEST of where the loboy was staged was…
Parcel Number: 203-05-003E
Owner: LICHTY JEFFREY W FAMILY TRUST
Owner’s Mailing Address:
8901 ALLEN RD CLARKSTON, MI 48348
Secondary Owner: N/A
There are NO STRUCTURES on that entire parcel. Just boondock.
After going through that piece of property… the only parcel left that would have to be ‘touched’ to connect up to the BSR itself was, in fact, the northeast corner of the parcel that contains the Boulder Springs Ranch itself.
Parcel Number: 203-05-003L
Owner: HELM HUGH L & DIANE J JT
Owner’s Mailing Address: PO BOX 128 YARNELL, AZ 85362
Secondary Owner: N/A
There is nothing in the public evidence record to indicate SPGS1 Gary Cordes, or HEQB Cory Ball, or ANYONE in fire command made ANY attempt to contact either the S&P FAMILY TRUST or the BALUCO TRUST owners when SPGS1 Cordes ordered the dozer to just start plowing ahead on THOSE pieces of private property…
…so I doubt anything would have been any different down there to the southwest IAOI ( If And Only If ) they had ‘gone ahead’ with any plans to push a dozer line in THAT area.
SPGS1 Gary Cordes would have probably just ‘given the word’ to go ahead ASAP ( just like he did with that ‘Cutover Trail’ late afternoon ) and Ball and the dozer would have just started ‘plowing’ that private property.
I suppose all of this WILL come out when all the 100+ property damage suits have their day in court… and the property owners who had their private property all torn to shit with a bulldozer that day can try to recover for those specific damages…
…but on THAT day ( June 30, 2013 )… SPGS1 Gary Cordes was NOT doing any of the ‘checking’ that you say is ‘mandatory’.
He just WASN’T.
PS: Unless YOU can find any evidence of that in the public record.
I can’t… but if you find anything like that please let me know… including ( perhaps? ) some kind of ‘standing property owners agreement’ that they had to sign to allow this work to take place, if needed, WITHOUT their permission, or something?
I am ready to be 100 percent wrong here ( but I don’t think I am ).
See what I wrote above.
They were both AUTHORIZED and REQUIRED to fight the fire, whatever it took.
Saw it. Thank you, Marti.
It was a ‘side issue’ but an important one.
Bottom line is NO ONE had to waste one single second worrying about an ‘permissions’ that day. They could have pushed dozer line anywhere they wanted… any TIME they wanted.
Just point at the ground and tell the dozer to GO.
reply to Bob Power’s: “I noted Sonny or Joy said something about a home owner that was upset with a Dozer push on his property. So I would assume some Private Property Owners would not allow a Dozer line thru their property, it happens a lot in wild land fire suppression. So their open land burns and you move on.”
—————————————
The URL to view this parcel on the map is:
http://gis.yavapai.us/V4/map.aspx?search=203-04-081
and you can see seven properties between their place and the Helm’s so it was just odd they had damage done by bulldozer due to location of their home and who to go to for asking so I printed up state land foia and start there on a few topics. Gosh it does add up the funds for anyone who has bought FOIA information- God Bless you all because it can add up over time—huh—
I did post many times since this comment made it by Bob Powers days ago but I see it never made it here the update so I quickly did it by emails and some typos happened due to copy and paste that was originally to “J&D” but others got it thinking when I said “ugly J&D” some thought I had a concern with them. Nope just never changed their names to yours—simple error. I am confused by the recent topic with YFD but I am letting go as of yesterday for one someone who knows the individual feels it was not a ploy and I respect that person’s opinion and well because Brian Murphy cancelled his doctor appointment to support us at meeting —I let Pete Andersen and Dr. Leroy Anderson know I am going to the meeting after all. If anyone has questions for the local YFD- email me them so I can point it out Monday.
or use this link:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/17613+Westward+Dr,+Yarnell,+AZ+85362/@34.21781,-112.764711,772m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x80d3304c99643251:0x7a2ad746b7f38ff9
the last link shows home before the fire and the assessor list does not–that was why I added both links.
I have Jolene Aikman present
and her phone is “smashed” but she did let me try and charge it while she is doing library time
it is charging and if it works it will cover Helms area as Johanna Montgomery is at Mike Bode’s location and only has Vanessa Purdy in between her and the Helms
I sure hope her photos are okay
worth the shot-
I will email everyone I normally do if they are okay her photos
the phone is in rough shape.
Thank you Jolene for taking the time to do this for the public.
You are an important area over there.
The URL to view this parcel on the map is:
http://gis.yavapai.us/V4/map.aspx?search=203-04-067
and
google
https://www.google.com/maps/place/17741+Foothill+Dr,+Yarnell,+AZ+85362/@34.2184637,-112.7657595,386m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x80d3304b7f17a551:0xb074371c1b7ec2a3
here is recent communication when Bob
powers mentioned to reach out to certain areas…here is the reply:
from: Stephen Tullos
to: “[email protected]”
cc: Barbara Fox-Thomas
date: Wed, Dec 10, 2014 at 11:47 AM
subject: deaths in the Glen Ilah/Yarnell/Peeples Valley/Congress/Wilhoit since the fire?
The Board of Supervisors passed on your inquiry dated Dec. 5th 2014 regarding the number of deaths in the Glen Ilah/Yarnell/Peeples Valley/Congress/Wilhoit area since the fire. To date we have not received any information to raise our concerns regarding the number and types of deaths in this area.
We are pulling data for that area to see if there is a reason for additional study.
I want to thank you for your concern, and we will keep you posted on the outcome.
Stephen C. Tullos
Director/Health Officer
Yavapai County Community Health Services –
1090 Commerce Drive
Prescott, AZ 86305
Office: 928-442-5966
As of last week, Brendan McDonough has obtained a Criminal Attorney, and he is working with the AZ State Attorney General. We may see something about this by mid to late January, at the earliest.
Thanks, RTS. I can’t really think of a good reason why Brendan would feel the need to retain a ‘Criminal Attorney’, unless the counsel he had just isn’t all that familiar with actual court proceedings and whatnot.
Only scenario I can think of is that Brendan really does NOT want to have to actually ‘testify’ at any court proceeding(s) ( and be subject to any direct questioning and/or cross-examination ) and he is just trying to go the ‘deposition only’ route… but the attorneys for the plaintiffs are NOT fully agreeing to that.
It could also be that Brendan is still trying to maintain ( like he did with all his media interviews ) that there are some things he absolutely will refuse to talk about and/or some questions he might be asked that he is absolutely going to refuse to answer.
That gets problematic in terms of being called to the witness stand.
You can ONLY assert your 5th amendment rights if you feel the testimony you are being asked to supply will, in some way, tend to ‘self-incriminate’.
You CANNOT invoke your own 5th amendment rights just because you don’t want to reveal something you know or because you have your own ‘agenda’ and you are trying to ‘protect’ someone ELSE.
That can result in actual ‘contempt of court’ charges… and maybe the counsel Brendan had just didn’t feel fully ‘up to speed’ in that area. A Criminal Attorney would be.
Who knows.
I suppose we’ll find out.
It is NOT looking very likely that the Arizona Attorney General’s request to the Arizona District Court that the ‘wrongful death’ suits be ‘dismissed’ is going to be successful.
I was trying to imagine where that dozer line could have been to protect Glen Isla– There was the old dozer track that went west from the Helms place past the pond just to the west of Helms that went up a narrow canyon still continuing up the canyon. That actually was the two track that had been bulldozed back when the 67 or 68 fire had happened.
Yes there was no way they could have made it– that canyon behind the cattle pond was extremely steep and narrow–a perfect funnel and as near as that fire was at even 1;30 OR 1330 if you prefer–their chances of getting the dozer operation out of that canyon in time would have been slim to none.. But indeed that must have been their thinking if Steed dropped down to meet Marsh.
Seems indeed they were thinking that from they could maybe do something by dozing from the Helms that direction, and then all hell broke loose in a different direction when the wind switched channels– what were those men thinking?
They heard the weather reports then crossed their fingers and in spite of seeing all hell had broken loose early before 1100 hours on Sunday went down to play Russian roulette. It was simply that the atom bomb had happened early but those fellows really had believed their feeble attempts to outwit nature would suffice to save a few structures–as Donut would put it, those fire regulations are hill billy, yet this old hill billy would say they make hillbilly sense to me–we can defy gravity that is perhaps somewhere between earth and the moon.
Joy and I will attend the next fire meeting. Seems that we have been getting a lot of flack lately for our participation–Hiking people up there–a crime to several in the cadre here–They can commit a crime of hiking without passes–we have ours legal as all get out–yet many of these hike without what the law requires–Joy has photos of certain people that are complete law breakers on that matter–yet these authorities seem to be beyond the law themselves.
Seems like a set up after all–but it might backfire.
Whew we hear that one of these fellows even wanted to sue the United Way because they could not hold the free stuff they gave him longer than a year. Talk about an ingrate.
Joy and I delivered almost 500 United Way packages to people who were in Yarnell. Because we had a truck at the time, we delivered furniture, etc free of charge. United Way was good enough to give us gas vouchers in some instances on that.
There were people out of Prescott, Chris. Crystal, Laura, Meredith, Dawn, Jack, and many others I cannot name who freely gave of their time and money and vehicles to help those that had either lost homes or just needed help after the fire. Talk about United Way, and these people were the first to step up to the plate, even providing motel rooms and temporary housing for some. The Red Cross did much as well and took care of those in shelters after being evacuated. We enjoyed some of that help ourselves during evacuation–maybe we paid back some by our efforts after Yarnell and Peeples Valley were opened up again.
We even got evicted from my Oak Park Motel apartment #15 because our work was not sanctioned by the manager there. She kicked out a total of nine–Did they think they would be able to up the rent because of construction worker influx?
Cris and another man from United Way witnessed the eviction and could not believe how some people can be so hard hearted during a tragedy. Joy and I stayed on the desert after that and I remained homeless for about a year after–but we were resourceful and are back.
That is life, and we wonder how people can cover up so much in a tragedy.
But now we have a local fire department that resents our hiking people up in the area to access this thing? They ought to be ashamed of that. This nation is built on freedom to know and investigate the truth–when authority become awry the people need to know. To hide the routes and what was done on that mountain and the errors of that day would be a travesty.
In instances where people who are directly involved in uncovering and concerning themselves with what really went on were denied accessibility to the area and came to us–we hiked them indeed and indeed will hike more.. They needed to know the routes and what took place there, when and where–the why they want to know and are like the people on this site are getting to it.
Those that we hiked that do not contribute here, none the less, watch this site and use the information they are getting here. Several are journalists, some are investigators and others are loved ones and friends who are damned tired of the BS they have been fed by those that had their own agendas or else were afraid of loss.
Reply to Sonny post December 11, 2014 at 11:11 am
>> Sonny said…
>>
>> I was trying to imagine where that dozer line could have been
>> to protect Glen Isla– There was the old dozer track that went west
>> from the Helms place past the pond just to the west of Helms that
>> went up a narrow canyon still continuing up the canyon. That actually
>> was the two track that had been bulldozed back when the 67
>> or 68 fire had happened.
Well… since SPGS1 Gary Cordes never once even mentioned that he told Blue Ridge Hotshot Coy Ball ( who was acting HEQB assigned to the dozer that day ) to do this ‘scouting’ for a last minute defensive dozer push… and the ADOSH investigators never had a chance to even ASK him any questions about it…
…we really don’t know what SPGS1 Gary Cordes might have even had in mind.
Cordes had ‘scouted’ that general area the night before… but it was pitch dark.
However… the morning briefing… we KNOW that Gary Cordes was looking over satellite maps of that area with Eric Marsh… because THAT is when Cordes pointed out the Boulder Springs Ranch to Marsh and TOLD him it was his ‘predetermined safety zone’ that day.
So we don’t know what kind of ‘mental map’ SPGS1 Gary Cordes really had of the area… but he DID take at least one good look at it that morning on actual SATELLITE maps.
The thing to remember is that all this ‘line building’ stuff is NOT usually designed to stop a fireline dead in its tracks. It is usually ‘designed’ to just influence the MOVEMENT of a fireline and try to make it go AROUND things, if at all possible.
Example: Even all that dozer work on the ‘Cutover Trail’ and the work being done in Harper Canyon by those 6 firefighters ( who also almost lost their lives that day ) was not designed to stop the oncoming fireline ‘dead in its tracks’. All that work was being done in the hopes of redirecting the fireline out to the natural firebreak that was Highway 89 itself.
There is actually PROOF in the ‘evidence record’ that this is exactly what the Blue Ridge Hotshots thought they were doing with that ‘Cutover Trail’ dozer line work.
The following is from Blue Ridge Captain Trueheart Brown’s official ‘Unit Log’.
Here he is describing this late afternoon assignment from SPGS1 Gary Cordes to create a ‘line’ along that ‘Cutover Trail’ that connected the Sesame clearing area over to the Youth Camp on Shrine Road.
Notice that Captain Brown points out that the real OBJECTIVE was to just try to get the fire to ‘skirt along’ that line and HERD it ( redirect it ) out to Highway 89…
——————————————————————————
(SPGS1 Gary Cordes) calls and requests the dozer to put in a piece of line off the main 2 track to the north that will tie into a road called Shrine by the Youth Camp.
…
(HEQB Cory Ball and the dozer ) finishes this assignment.
…
I get the crew lined out ( on the dozer line ).
I continue hiking ( to the east ) as the crew begins working.
My intent was to get to a high point on a rock area to the north of the Dozer line / Youth Camp and see if there was any way to get fire AROUND the structures and out to Highway 89 OFF the dozer line.
This was our current thinking at the time.
To bring fire down the original 2 track to the north and then HERD it AROUND
the town and OUT to the Highway.
————————————————————————–
So I imagine whatever Gary Cordes might have been thinking or planning for Glen Ilah was similar.
It was how to try to get the fire to go AROUND the Glen Ilah subdivsion instead of passing right THROUGH it.
If you look at a satellite map of the Glen Ilah area… you can easily see that ‘clearing’ at the south end of the Sesame area where the bulldozer ‘loboy’ trailer was staged. This is where the dozer itself is believed to have been ‘staged’ at the time when Gary Cordes told HEQB Cory Ball to ‘scout out a dozer line’ in that area to try and protect Glen Ilah.
This ‘clearing’ is right there just west of the point where the paved part of both Lakewood and Manzanita ends and then becomes that ‘dirt’ road heading north into the Sesame area.
Just west ( and a little south ) of that clearing is fairly wide ‘dry creek bed’. THAT *could* have been used as part of the defensive line at that time. That ‘dry creek bed’ goes WEST for a few hundred yards and then there is a point where there is a ‘clearing’ that could have connected SOUTH directly to the DRIVEWAY of the Boulder Springs Ranch itself.
The satellite images show that the long, totally cleared DRIVEWAY leading out to the Boulder Springs Ranch itself would have been an excellent fire break. It was already wider than anything that had been being considered an adequate ‘firebreak’ at any other time that day… including the ‘Cutover Trail’ that the dozer had already pushed over to the Youth Camp.
Would it have worked?
Who knows. There was eventually so much SPOTTING associated with that fire moving into the Glen Ilah area that its doubtful any kind of ‘dozer line’ would have made any difference…
…but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t at least have beeb a valid PLAN circa 1600 ( 4:00 PM ) and before that fire blew up like an atom bomb.
If Cory Ball hadn’t gotten ‘sidetracked’ and ‘hung up’ over in Yarnell while delivering the Blue Ridge Chase Truck over to the Ranch House Restaurant… and they had ‘gone ahead’ with this emergency dozer push… it certainly wouldn’t have been the first ‘assignment’ that day that didn’t look like it had much of a chance of stopping anything… but they were working hard on it, anwyay.
http://prescott.craigslist.org/lbg/4753853341.html
I went to craigslist to read any ad I had on this 2014 and none of them say we will take anyone to any site where the men died.
people, people, people.
I truly would love for you to come forward and place your full name being you had NO PROBLEM involving YOUR slander/misinformation to the YCSO and them taking YOUR WORD to the extent when I said whoever told them gave her misinformation and she said “are you calling me a liar?” so really whoever you are you might THINK you have clout being you have the YCSO stand strong with you but I know the law and I did nothing wrong.
I also know some think they are above the law…but hey I am not going to be bullied in this topic—no way!
Come forward, coward!
We have a craigslist ad looking for misc things and we got a reply from a woman in Humboldt…when we get there to get items—SMALL WORLD—her son is married to Darrell Willis’s daughter and we learned some good stuff from her that we know we are on the right path…Higher ups, time for you to SPEAK UP! Can’t you see how God is orchestrating this…too funny! Now I can see why the confusion and diversion and local damage/destruction CREATION being done on the hikers…almost have to get this higher ups—you may have power and all but you DO NOT have the ALMIGHTY power that God is showing in His time!
HedzUp.
JD just posted, two days ago:
M2U00262.MPG
M2U00263.MPG
M2U00264.MPG
M2U00266R.mp4
For those who would rather look at “the originals” than downloads from YouTube.
PS I”ve been reading everything you all have been writing today, but haven’t had the time to reply to much of anything.
And thanks, all of you, for your responses to my question regarding “Slow Down, Skippy!!!”
I’m definitely reading them and definitely thinking about them.
Thanks for the Hedzup Marti.
I’m about to publish TIMESTAMPS for pretty much all 21 of the newly released Aaron Hulburd videos.
The ones that have ANY glimpse ( or presence ) of the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger have always been pretty much a ‘no brainer’ to timestamp. We have actual GPS satellite times for those because of BR Captain Brown’s constantly updating GPS unit.
The ones where the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger is actually MOVING have always been the easiest to timestamp.
That’s because of the way the GPS unit updating works.
It was only updating every 60 seconds all day… but when the timer expires and it goes to grab another satellite update… that only takes a fraction of a second.
So when the Polaris is MOVING and an GPS update happens… you can be sure that the exact position of the unit at that moment matches the exact Lat/Long that ends up in the update.
It’s only when the GPS Unit is NOT moving when you have to add the +/- 59 second ‘fudge factor’ to the timestamp.
When the GPS unit has gone from ‘moving’ to ‘stationary’… you can’t ever really be sure WHEN it actually went ‘stationary’. It might have been 1 second after the last GPS update… or the new update might have only happened some 57 or 58 seconds AFTER the unit became stationary.
The new Hulburd videos that do NOT feature the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger in them have been a little trickier to timestamp… but pretty much ALL of them have had at least one ‘anchor event’ depicted in them that is verifiable with other evidence with known timestamps.
A strange picture is emerging with these ‘timestamps’.
As already discussed… there are times when, based on what we can SEE Aaron Hulburd’s habit was as a ‘videophile’… there is no real logical explanation why he would ‘cut off’ his filming at some of the points where we are being led to believe he did.
Example: I can see no reason why we are NOT seeing video of the actual Granite Mountain Crew Carriers evacuating ahead of that last Blue Ridge Crew Carrier other than to think someone at US Forestry just didn’t want the families to SEE the Granite Mountain Crew Carriers passing by Hulburd’s camera EMPTY.
We KNOW that was ‘visible’ because in at least TWO places in the videos we CAN see… KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Aaron Hulburd report that they ‘only say drivers’ in the GM Crew Carriers as they passed by.
More later.
Crap. Typo above in the last paragraph. I typed ‘say’ instead of ‘saw’.
Should have been…
We KNOW that was ‘visible’ because in at least TWO places in the videos we CAN see… KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Aaron Hulburd report that they ‘only SAW drivers’ in the GM Crew Carriers as they passed by.
Copy.
And you already know what I think about these files being all “un-redacted.”
Good stuff from RTS and Kenneth Jordan. Joy, keep your chin up with the issues there.
SR,
My pleasure. Thanks, but since you are allegedly RTS and I am also RTS, then aren’t we merely thanking ourselves?
>> RTS said…
>> …aren’t we merely thanking ourselves?
Well… SOMEONE has to do it.
ROFL
You guys just plainly have a Twins case of double schizophrenia, obviously.
reply to SR says DECEMBER 10, 2014 AT 5:04 PM Joy, keep your chin up with the issues there.
————–
After talking with Theresa, G.E. gave us a lawyer who goes up against state and federal folks so it was very refreshing that same day to get such solid free legal advice for this upcoming meeting and indeed we will do as the person states. That person was intelligent beyond my own capabilities and I understand every point made and I will follow it. Makes perfect sense.
I emailed just a couple people some of the snap shots of people and vehicles and lic plates and paperwork because its not needed on here as we are just trying to let a few know we know we are being followed and the recent local stuff just awfully sad not needed because it has already caused division in some areas that hopefully does not jeopardize Sonny’s living arrangements over the one-sided information and just very sad.
SR- my chin is up. Smiles. I just did not know that moment what to do when someone “creates” a bad situation and it only has to be if there is an agenda behind it all is our take.
test6
Reply to calvin post on December 9, 2014 at 1:48 pm
NOTE: This exchange has been brought up from down below…
It contains a NEW transcript of yet another moment in the newly released Aaron Hulburd videos when Blue Ridge SUP Brian Frisby was telling “The Three Prescotteers” why Granite Mountain wasn’t in the Crew Carriers as they saw them go by.
—————————————————————————
On December 9, 2014 at 4:00 am, calvin said…
Wtk. It appears that Eric started scouting south around 1530, possibly. And I think it is possible that he was petty far south by the time MacKenzie shoots the video where we hear Steed updating him on the fires progression. I think that it is possible that the plan was actually developed around 1530. And I would also venture a guess that marsh was included in formulating the plan. By cell phone?
On December 9, 2014 at 10:31 am, WTKTT responded…
Calvin… make no mistake… I have ALWAYS thought this idea of last minute dozer line being directly related to why GM suddenly ‘gaggled up’ and left the safe black is totally possible… but where are you getting the idea that Marsh might have already been scouting SOUTH as early as 1530?
On December 9, 2014 at 1:48 pm, calvin responded…
Wtk. I am thinking that Frisby didn’t leave to go toe in with Eric until after Eric decided to go scout the trail to the south.. this comes per Frisby s account he gives to the prescotteers in the new video. I can’t remember the number off the top of my head
———————————————————————–
calvin… thanks for the good response. Yes. I know what you are referring to there.
That was Hulburd video M2U00271 shot after Frisby and Brown had returned to the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot following the deployment and they were now on the ‘ground rescue mission’ and had just met up with the ‘Three Prescotteers’ again ( Jason Clawson, Aaron Hulburd, and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell ).
Here is that exchange… with the final quote from Frisby I believe you are referring to…
HULBURD VIDEO M2U00271
——————————————————–
+0:00
(Unknown – Jason Clawson?): Ask them if the black plume is where they are.
+0:02
( OPS2 Paul Musser ): …point just… uh… (down) here in Yarnell.
+0:13
(Unknown – Aaron Hulburd?): How many were in there?
+0:21
(Brian Frisby): They were sittin’ in cold black.
+0:23
(Trueheart Brown): They were in black.
+0:25
(Uknown – Aaron Hulburd?): (So) THAT’S what they were talking about? (The) Lookout?
+0:28
(Brian Frisby): No. No. (He’s) in black…
+0:30
(Unknown – KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): ( Overlapping with Frisby ) I heard that (one).
+0:31
(Brian Frisby): …and Eric decided that the trail that kinda follows that ridge…
green… goes around. That lookout was down below. I went in to go tie in with Eric… and that’s when it picked up. I just happened to stumble upon the lookout… without
the… uh… I grabbed him. ( He’s out ).
————————————————————–
I can see what you are saying… but I’m honestly not sure myself that report from Frisby establishes anything ( TIME wise ) for when Marsh might have done anything in particular.
Can you explain a little more why you think it might?
Are you thinking the reason Frisby said this is because that’s what Marsh told him when he was asking him to come up for that second face-to-face? That WAS, in fact, circa 1530.
** THE ‘OTHER’ REPORT FROM FRISBY ABOUT GRANITE MOUNTAIN
What has actually been missed so far ( by everyone, it seems ) is that the transcript above is not the FIRST time in the new Hulburd videos where we can hear Brian Frisby explaining to Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell where he believes Eric Marsh and Granite Mountain were… and what they were doing.
Video M2U00271 is actually the SECOND time ( in the new Hulburd videos ) when we hear BR SUP Brian Frisby telling the “Three Prescotteers” about Granite Mountain.
When Frisby and Brown first ‘drove up’ to the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot and first met up with Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell… Jason Clawson asks Frisby right away “Where’s Jesse? We didn’t see ’em in the buggies”… and Frisby tells Clawson where he thought Jesse Steed and GM were at that moment and what they were doing.
This exchange comes at the very END of Hulburd video M2U00264.
It’s hard to hear because it is part of the ‘overspeak’ that was going on as these 5 men were greeting each other. They were all sort of speaking ‘on top of each other’… but if you listen very closely you can hear pretty much everything that is said in and around the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger that Frisby and Brown just pulled up in.
This ‘excerpt’ starting at +3:07 into video M2U00264 is the moment when Frisby and Brown have just pulled up to the “Prescotteers’ in the Polaris Ranger. The transcript goes to the END of video M2U00264 when Hulburd’s video abruptly ( and still, inexplicably ) ‘cuts off’…
—————————————————————————–
+3:07 ( 1636.30 / 4:36.30 )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): (Greeting the Blue Ridge Polaris Ranger UTV as it arrives at the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot with BR SUP Brian Frisby and BR Captain Trueheart Brown onboard )
What time is it? Is it dark, or what?
+3:08 ( 1636.31 / 4:36.31 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown): It IS dark ( up here ).
+3:09 ( 1636.32 / 4:36.32 )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): How ya doin’, guy?
+3:12 ( 1636.35 / 4:36.35 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown): Fuckin’ makin’ sure idiots aren’t burnin’ themselves out. God DAMN.
+3:14 ( 1636.37 / 4:36.37 )
(Foreground: Aaron Hulburd): We figured you guys were bringin’ up ( the rear ).
——————————————————————–
NOTE: The following conversation is taking place underneath
what KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Aaron Hulburd are saying to BR
Captain Brown. It appears to be Jason Clawson asking BR SUP
Brian Frisby where ‘Jesse Steed’ and GM are since they didn’t
see them in the GM buggies as they drove by moments before
this… and Frisby tells him…
——————————————————————–
+3:16 ( 1636.39 / 4:36.39 )
(Foreground: Jason Clawson?): ( To Frisby): Where’s Jesse? We didn’t seem ’em in the buggies.
NOTE: The words ‘in the black’ are clearly heard in Frisby’s response but whatver he says after ‘tryin’ to’ is lost as he seems to turn away from Hulburd’s camera/microphone.
+3:18 ( 1636.41 / 4:36.41 )
(Foreground: BR SUP Brian Frisby): They’re in the black right now tryin’ to ??
——————————————————————–
+3:17 ( 1636.40 / 4:36.40 )
(Foreground: Aaron Hulburd): (To Brown): So everybody’s out?
+3:18 ( 1636.41 / 4:36.41 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown): Yea. We’re the last.
+3:22 ( 1636.45 / 4:36.45 )
(Unknown): ( Someone says something here to Brown the he is going to agree with )
+3:23 ( 1636.46 / 4:36.46 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown?): Yup.
+3:25 ( 1636.48 / 4:36.48 )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): How long ya been here? Days?
+3:27 ( 1636.50 / 4:36.50 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown): Nah… we just got here this mornin’
+3:29 ( 1636.52 / 4:36.52 )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): Holy shit.
+3:30 ( 1636.53 / 4:36.53 )
(Foreground: BR Captain Trueheart Brown): Yeah.
+3:31 ( 1636.54 / 4:36.54 )
(Foreground: KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): ( Laughs )
——————————————————————–
VIDEO M2U00271 ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF
This is the relevant exchange near the end of M2U00271…
——————————————————————-
+3:16 ( 1636.39 / 4:36.39 )
(Foreground: Jason Clawson?): ( To Frisby): Where’s Jesse? We didn’t seem ’em in the buggies.
+3:18 ( 1636.41 / 4:36.41 )
(Foreground: BR SUP Brian Frisby): They’re in the black right now tryin’ to ??
——————————————————————–
So this is Frisby reporting ( directly to Jason Clawson ) more about ‘Jesse’ and GM than Eric Marsh, per se… but it’s interesting to note that even as Frisby was evacuating out to the Ranch House Restaurant… he was convinced that Granite Mountain was still ‘in the black’..
Frisby really does ‘turn away’ from Hulburd’s microphone right as he is sayng ‘now tryin’ to…’,
and I don’t see any possibility of recovering any more words there in the audio track.
I don’t even have a good guess there about what might have followed “now tryin’ to…’
Do you?
Remember… we are only about 90 seconds away from Jesse Steed’s first MAYDAY at this moment in time.
I think it is possible that marsh was asking Frisby back up for a reason. I do not think a case could be made that marsh was calling Frisby up there to tell him GM was committed to the black. It would seem logical that he called him up for planning. Where on the fire had a better view of what was happening? Yes. I think that it makes sense (personally) that marsh was calling Frisby up to look at the place the new dozer line should go. And we hear Frisby state. Eric decided a trail, I went to tie in, and then picked up lookout. That seems to establish a time for when Frisby heard Eric was moving, and it was when he called him up for a face to face meeting.
Reply to calvin post on December 10, 2014 at 4:42 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> I think it is possible that marsh was asking Frisby back up for a reason.
Yes. Actually… that’s a given. There’s no way he would have been asking Frisby to drop what he was doing all the way down there and eat dust and schlep all the way back up to that ridge unless he wanted to SHOW him something ( like an idea or a plan only best viewed from Marsh’s location on the ridge ).
I have also (personally) never thought Frisby would consent to such a ‘trip’ up there unless he had also been given some idea what it was about… or Marsh had already indicated to Frisby something like “I can’t just tell you what I am thinking of doing… you have to come up here so I can SHOW you”.
That ‘reason’ for the face-to-face *might* be one of the REDACTED sections in Frisby’s Unit Log.
I also think that whatever radio frequency this request from Marsh for that second face-to-face took place on… there must have been others who heard it to a greater extent than the current testimony would indicate.
If Frisby really did have Marsh’s intra-net frequency… it’s possible that is where the ‘request’ took place… which means Brendan McDonough probably heard all of this exchange.
>> calvin also wrote…
>>
>> I do not think a case could be made that marsh was calling Frisby
>> up there to tell him GM was committed to the black.
Agree. Not a chance.
It had to be about some kind of ‘last ditch effort’ plan, or something.
Some kind of mano-e-mano “Hotshot to Hotshot” type business.
>> calvin also said…
>>
>> It would seem logical that he called him up for planning.
>> Where on the fire had a better view of what was happening?
Agree. Something related to the FIRE and what else they *might* be able to do about it given the new ( fast developing ) situation.
>> calvin also said…
>>
>> Yes. I think that it makes sense (personally) that marsh was
>> calling Frisby up to look at the place the new dozer line should go.
This is the ‘new’ part of this… and I agree. It’s possible this new ‘dozer push’
was what Eric wanted to talk about… but he never go the chance to be that specific over the radio when requesting the face-to-face… so Frisby never really knew that is what the meeting was going to be about because he never made it up there for that ‘show and tell’.
>> calvin also said…
>>
>> And we hear Frisby state. Eric decided a trail, I went to tie in,
>> and then picked up lookout. That seems to establish a
>> time for when Frisby heard Eric was moving, and it was when
>> he called him up for a face to face meeting.
I do see exactly where you are ‘coming from’ now… but I’m still not sure I see the direct line of reasoning that this would prove Marsh was ‘already scouting south’ circa 1530.
Again… what Frisby actually said was…
+0:31
(Brian Frisby): …and Eric decided that the trail that kinda follows that ridge…
green… goes around. That lookout was down below. I went in to go tie in with Eric… and that’s when it picked up. I just happened to stumble upon the lookout… without the… uh… I grabbed him. ( He’s out ).
I think only Frisby himself could say what he was really TRYING to say at that moment. It ended up an ‘incomplete thought’.
He could have been referring to just what Frisby showed him when he was up there at NOON… that they had this ‘escape route’ on that trail that ‘goes around’ if they needed it.
Whoops… typo above. I meant to say…
He (Frisby) could have been referring to just what Marsh showed him when he was up there at NOON… that they had this ‘escape route’ on that trail that ‘goes around’ if they needed it.
What I am seeing is Marsh wanting to talk 1 on 1 with Frizby to determine if they can tie in there respective lines in time to keep the fire in check
which in short order was answered for them with the fire pushing out the GM lookout and looking like a solid wall of flame.
So I think the discussion between Marsh and Frisby was that the line was not going to get tied in and his crew would move GM vehicles with McDonough.
A Fairley simple exchange at that point.
Since BR had an ATV it made it fairly easy to get together and discuss the Fire and their options. They could have got together in 10 minuets or less. That is very fast when you need to discuss you options.
Reply to Bob Powers post on December 10, 2014 at 4:17 pm
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> What I am seeing is Marsh wanting to talk 1 on 1 with
>> Frizby to determine if they can tie in there respective
>> lines in time to keep the fire in check
There is evidence to prove that was NOT the case.
Marsh DID want to talk to Frisby… but only AFTER it became clear that they were NOT going to be able to ‘tie in their respective lines’.. Marsh did not request this mysterious second face-to-face until AFTER Jesse Steed announced that GM would need at least another HOUR to finish that original project.
From page 8 of the SAIT Investigation Notes.
SAIT Interview with Frisby, Brown, Fueller, Ball.
At this point.. the NOTES seem to indicate that it is Captain Trueheart Brown speaking since he is talking about what ‘Brian’ ( or just ‘B’ ) was doing. It’s hard to tell any TIMES at all from the SAIT interview notes, but this ‘section’ is appearing in roughly the 1530 timeframe…
——————————————————–
Brian tries to contact GM several times, GM direct 3 or 4x Brian passed on to Jesse there plan of Gm securing there piece to the 2 track. Jesse says we have about another hr before we are tied into the 2 track. Eric copy’s and says yes that’s a good plan, head back up here let’s do a face-to-face. B says ok.
———————————————————
So according to this ‘sequence’ in the notes… Brian Frisby called out to Jesse Steed himself about the possibility of GM securing what they had been doing up there down to the two-track… and Jesse Steed came right back and said they would need at least another HOUR before that could be accomplished. That means the work wasn’t going to be finished before the fire reached the two-track itself.
It is only AFTER this exchange that Eric Marsh THEN requested the face-to-face with Frisby.
So it would appear ( according to these SAIT notes ) that Marsh only wanted to talk face-to-face with Frisby AFTER it became obvious that the two groups were NOT going to have enough time to tie what Granite Mountain had been doing all day into the actual bulldozed main ‘two-track’.
I think that also means that whatever Marsh felt was so important for Frisby to come all the way out to the ridge to ‘talk about and/or look at’ was some kind of ALTERNATE plan. Something OTHER than just finishing that project of tying GM’s anchor point work down into the bulldozed two-track at some point near the old-grader location.
Then there is this from page 4 of the (redacted) Blue Ridge Unit Logs… This is definitely from BR Captain Brown’s Unit Log…
—————————————————
(XXXXX) speaks with (XXXX) and it is decided that (XXXXX) is going to tie in with (XXXX) in “the saddle” and he drives off.
—————————————————
Since this is from Captain Brown’s Unit Log and it comes at the same moment ( circa 1530 ) when Eric Marsh requested that second face-to-face meeting with Frisby… I think it’s safe to say that the UNREDACTED parts of this statement would look like this…
—————————————————
(Brian) speaks with (Eric) and it is decided that (Brian) is going to tie in with (Eric) in “the saddle” and he (Brian) drives off (in the UTV).
—————————————————
Despite what is mentioned in the SAIT notes for this ‘circa 1530’ timeframe Captain Brown’s Unit Log covering that same timeframe mentions NOTHING about the conversation with Steed where he said they were going to need another HOUR to tie into the two-track.
So… is there anything in BR SUP Brian Frisby’s log about this?
Turns out… there is… and it DOES pretty much match what the SAIT Investigation notes say… and in the same timeframe and ‘sequence of evernts’.
Blue Ridge Superintendent Brian Frisby’s (redacted) Unit Log was released in a separate document from the other BR Unit Logs.
That second document was named BlueRidgeIHC-2.pdf.
Brian Frisby’s Unit Log remained ‘handwritten’ and was REDACTED in that original form in the BlueRidgeIHC-2.pdf document.
On page 3 ( of 6 pages ) from Brian Frisby’s Unit Log…
Notice in this first paragraph that US Forestry tried to HIDE
the name of who Frisby was calling with a REDACTION,
but then just left Frisby’s note about it being DIVA unredacted.
That was probably a screw-up on the part of whoever was
redacting this Unit Log.
————————————————————
15:30 – (XXXX) had four of our guys bring our truck around and the rest geared up and headed to the doze line preping towards Shrine. I tryed to call (XXXX) a few times on tack 1 (DIVA) without any luck so I call (XXXXX) (XXXXXXXX) and was able to talk to (XXXXX). I told him that we were going to start prepping the dozer line to be able to burn if our hand was forced we would at least be able to protect some of the structures.
He agreed that our time was best spent down towards the structures and that it was slow going and they would probably be another hour before they tied into the two track to the north
(XXXXX) called me right after that to let me know he had copied direct and agreed with the plan.
He also said he would like to meet up when I get a chance.
I told him I would head his way with the ranger.
(XXXXX) grabbed his gear to go and look at a rocky area to see if we could hang up fire if we had to burn.
I headed up toward Granite Mountain.
—————————————————————
Since this pretty much matches what the SAIT interview
notes say… this one is pretty easy to ‘unredact’.
The ‘unredacted’ version most proably would look like this…
—————————————————————
15:30 – (Trew Brown) had four of our guys bring our truck around and the rest geared up and headed to the dozer line preping towards Shrine. I tryed to call (Eric Marsh) a few times on tack 1 (DIVA) without any luck so I call (Jesse Steed) (with Granite Mountain) and was able to talk to (Jesse). I told him that we were going to start prepping the dozer line to be able to burn if our hand was forced we would at least be able to protect some of the structures.
He (Jesse) agreed that our time was best spent down towards the structures and that it was slow going and they would probably be another hour before they tied into the two track to the north.
(Eric Marsh) called me right after that to let me know he had copied direct and agreed with the plan.
He (Eric Marsh) also said he would like to meet up when I get a chance.
I told him I would head his way with the ranger.
(Trew Brown) grabbed his gear to go and look at a rocky area to see if we could hang up fire if we had to burn.
I headed up toward Granite Mountain.
—————————————————————
So both the SAIT notes from THEIR ‘interview’ with Blue Ridge and BR SUP Brian Frisby’s own Unit Log are pretty much in agreement about the following…
1) Circa 1530… Jesse Steed said that he and Granite Mountain would need at least another HOUR to finish what they were doing and tie into the main two-track.
2) Only AFTER Eric Marsh says he ‘overheard’ that report does he ask Brian Frisby to come up for that second ‘face-to-face’. But ( according to Frisby ) Marsh didn’t even seem to be in any kind of hurry for that to happen. He just said “when you get a chance” to Frisby.
3) Brown gets out of the Ranger at the west end of the Cutover Trail where he and Frisby were when this radio como took place with Steed and Marsh. Brown starts walking EAST on the Cutover Trail and Frisby takes off in the UTV Ranger out towards Marsh.
He (Frisby) would never get there.
This is when he comes across Brendan at the old-grader, abandons the face-to-face, and evacs Brendan back east.
So by the time Eric requested that second face-to-face with Frisby he ( Eric ) ALREADY knew at least the following TWO things…
1) Blue Ridge was NOT doing any ‘prep’ work on that main two-track that headed out west towards Eric’s position and was now going to be ‘prepping’ that other ‘new’ dozer push from the Sesame area over to the Shrine Youth Camp.
2) His own GM resource was NOT going to finish the original plan of tieing into the main two-track down near the old-grader for another HOUR or so. That was an HOUR they didn’t have.
So whatever PLAN Marsh now wanted to discuss with Frisby ‘face to-face’ would appear to have been some kind of BACKUP plan since it was now obvious they didn’t have TIME to finish the original plan.
I think that IS what we are back to discussing at this point.
What might that OTHER PLAN have been that Marsh seemed to need Frisby up there on the ridge to either SEE or TALK about?
As simple as I Fire Fighter Can Say it——
Your objective is to have a good tied in line what did Frizby and Marsh need to do to accomplish that.
Then boom the Fire hits the Trigger for the Lookout and Boom the Trucks are in danger……….Boom all the line building and plan to tie in and burn out is gone.
So what they needed to discuss as the main 2 supervisors was what it would take to finish the assignment. After the fire made its move it was to late to finish the day shift assignment.
and all there line had been compromised.
So I say simply they had no other plan to move and build line they were just completely in the wrong place to accomplish that. GM should have moved up the mountain in the black and
hunkered as every one thought they were doing.
It was already to late to get to Glen Isla and put in any line. Again I look at the Pictures taken at the rest area be for GM moved, there was no way and no time to get to Glen Isla from the Rest area the fire was going to beat them there.
I still do not see any other plan that was not already compromised by the time BR was moving GM vehicles.
It could have well been under consideration but was never really Formulated They ask ball to scout the possibility that meant they would not move on the plan until they had conformation it could be done.
They would not have moved anyone until they had some conformation. We know what Ball said and that was it.
The only statements we have from marsh and Steed .
Were moving to our predetermined SZ.
Nothing about reengaging.
nothing about moving to build line north of Glen Isla.
Nothing about tying in with a Dozer.
That’s my take I guess I need more convincing. What I have Seen and what I have read and heard dose not take me in the new plan direction. So I am looking for more to convince me.
Reply to Bob Powers post on
December 10, 2014 at 9:57 pm
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> Your objective is to have a good tied in line.
Exactly. At 1530 Frisby tried to raise Marsh a few times on the radio to find out if they DID have ‘good tied in line yet’ up there. He couldn’t get Marsh. So Frisby calls Steed directly. Steed says “Nope… Sorry… No tied in line yet. We need at least another HOUR”.
So Frisby tells Steed they won’t be working on that main ‘two-track’ dozer line at all anymore… and they are shifting their attention to the ‘Cutover Trail’ to at least try and protect some structures.
Steed AGREES that is what Frisby should be doing.
Marsh overhears ALL of this exchange between Frisby and Steed and he chimes in with his consent to ‘that new plan’.
So now… at this moment… Marsh already knows that ‘day project’ isn’t going to come together and YES… Frisby might as well be focusing on that ‘Cutover Trail’ instead to at least have a chance to save some structures.
Only THEN does Marsh ask Frisby to ‘come up’ and discuss some OTHER plan.
>> Bob Powers wrote…
>>
>> what did Frizby and Marsh need to do to
>> accomplish that.
That answer became clear in the radio conversation.
There was NOTHING they were going to be able to do.
Steed needed another HOUR ( which Marsh and Frisby both knew they didn’t have ) and Frisby was now off on this OTHER last-minute project Cordes gave him to improve that dozer push on the Cutover Trail instead of the main two-track.
Steed ‘acknowledged’ this ‘new plan’. So did Marsh.
Remember that long discussion we had about WHEN was the actual ‘tools up’ moment for GM?
I believe this was it.
And only THEN did Marsh still seem to want a ‘face-to-face’ with Frisby.
In a way… that request for that face-to-face at that point just doesn’t make any sense at all based on the evidence we DO have.
>> Bob Powers also wrote.
>>
>> Then boom the Fire hits the Trigger for
>> the Lookout and Boom the Trucks are in
>> danger……….Boom all the line building
>> and plan to tie in and burn out is gone.
Here is where we are differing in perspective, I think.
Your BOOM is the moment Frisby is already heading up to see Marsh and he comes across Brendan. You are assuming that the ‘tools up’ moment for GM on that original ‘day project’ hadn’t happened yet.
I think there’s a good chance the BOOM moment came BEFORE that… and this is what the documentation seems to suggest. The BOOM moment ( tools UP for GM ) was when Steed said he needed an hour to finish ‘tieing in’ on that day project and both Marsh and Frisby KNEW they didn’t have an HOUR.
So ‘BOOM MOMENT’ equals “TOOLS UP” on day project.
The only question is… WHEN did that moment really happen. That’s what we are trying to nail down.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> So what they needed to discuss as the main 2
>> supervisors was what it would take to finish the
>> assignment.
That ALREADY happened.
Frisby tried to call Marsh to ‘discuss what it would take to finish the assignment’. He couldn’t get him. So he called his next best bet ( Jesse Steed ) and asked him the same ‘IHC Supervisor to (acting) IHC Supervisor’ question…
IHC SUP Frisby: “Jesse… what’s it gonna take to finish the assignment?”
IHC SUP Steed: “I need at least another hour to finish tying in”.
BOOM. Not enough time. Not gonna happen.
End of assignment.
Steed tells Frisby he might as well forget that original assignment and go ahead with the ‘new plan’ to just focus on the Cutover Trail like Cordes told him to.
Marsh HEARD this entire conversation. He AGREED to
the ‘new plan’ for Frisby to forget about that ‘day assignment’ and just focus on the Cutover Trail.
So what else was there to talk about with regards to the ‘day assignment’. The BOOM moment just happened.
It simply wasn’t going to come together and everyone was already acknowledging that to each other over the radio.
Only THEN does Marsh ask for this next mysterious ‘face-to-face with Frisby… but not even in any kind of ‘quick’ timeframe. Marsh just said “When you get a chance”.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> After the fire made its move it was too
>> late to finish the day shift assignment.
It was already ‘too late’ when Steed told Frisby he needed at least another HOUR. No chance. Everyone knew there was no way they had THAT much time…
not at 1530. The ‘day shift assignment’ was BLOWN even before Frisby was asked by Marsh to travel up there.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> So I say simply they had no other plan
>> to move and build line they were just
>> completely in the wrong place to
>> accomplish that. GM should have moved
>> up the mountain in the black
They actually DID. That is exactly what MacKenzie’s 1550 photos show. It was TOOLS UP for the men that were down the slope and we see them ‘moving up the mountain into the black’ where the others were… then we see them ALL just doing ‘smoke ’em if ya got ’em’ and resting and taking photos. They were DONE ( as far as they knew ) and they WERE already ‘up the mountain’ and ‘in the black’.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> It was already to late to get to Glen Isla and put in
>> any line.
The ‘put in any line’ part is what we are now wondering here… but there is no question that SOMEONE ( Marsh? ) certainly thought they had ‘plenty of time’ to get to Glen Ilah ( for whatever reason ).
Gary Cordes himself has also testified he thought they had ‘plenty of time to get there’ even following the ‘TOOLS UP’ moment.
>> Bob Powers also wrote…
>>
>> Again I look at the Pictures taken at the rest
>> area before GM moved, there was no way
>> and no time to get to Glen Isla from the
>> Rest area the fire was going to beat
>> them there.
I wish you ( or anyone with the sense God gave a Goose ) had been there to TELL them that.
I truly do.
They (obviously) thought otherwise.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> I still do not see any other plan that was
>> not already compromised by the time
>> BR was moving GM vehicles.
>> It could have well been under consideration
>> but was never really Formulated They ask
>> Ball to scout the possibility that meant they
>> would not move on the plan until they had
>> conformation it could be done.
>>
>> They would not have moved anyone until
>> they had some conformation.
Mr. Powers… you always speak ‘to the point’ and in a frame of reference of how things OUGHT to be… and you KNOW all of us here appreciate that…
…but I wish I could share your confidence that everything that was going down that day was ‘by the book’ and according to the ‘way things ought to be’.
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> We know what Ball said and that was it.
>>
>> The only statements we have from Marsh
>> and Steed…
>>
>> Were moving to our predetermined SZ.
>> Nothing about reengaging.
>> Nothing about moving to build line north of Glen Isla.
>> Nothing about tying in with a Dozer.
You missed one.
Eric Marsh at 1637.
“That’s it. That’s where WE want the retardant”.
I know we have our doubts about that statement itself and whether Burfiend could have been really sure it actually came from Eric Marsh ( and not just someone commenting on the 1633 SEAT drop )…
…but humor me for a moment.
What if Marsh really did say that… at 1637?
What would that retardant drop have been FOR other than to probably support a dozer line that Marsh might have thought was supposed to being actively ‘pushed’ there near Glen Ilah?
>> Bob Powers also said…
>>
>> That’s my take I guess I need more convincing.
>> What I have Seen and what I have read and
>> heard dose not take me in the new plan direction.
>> So I am looking for more to convince me.
Fair enough.
Personally.. I AGREE with you… but I still think this whole possibility of another ‘plan’ being in place which *may* have contributed to their decision to move is worth this ‘revisit’ of the evidence.
It’s might be a ‘rabbit hole’… but there really might be a fuzzy creature lurking at the bottom of it.
For Now lets not say things were by the Book as They were not that simple.
I am saying years of experience doing fire suppression yields some basic thinking. Some basic things that happen with out the book. Like scout a plan before you implement it. Have a plan before you move resources. Make an attempt to tie in your line to the next division. Don’t let the fire dictate you plan.
Hail Mary’s do not work as last minute plans.
I think many of the crews on the fire were already discouraged with the leadership including GM.
The only real goal we can say right or wrong was their very distinct move to their predetermined SZ
We also know they moved without a safety plan.
one thought they move towards a location that would allow them to be picked up buy their busses, and off the mountain where they would be stranded for some time. At this point many factors interred their thinking process or lack there of (Human Factors) that over looked the bad things that were happening. Still my take.
I think the bottom line at this point is…
We continue to accumulate DIRECT evidence that SPGS1 Gary Cordes WAS at least trying to put a plan into motion ‘down there’ to do an emergency dozer-push to the ‘southwest’ and out there near the bottom of the Sesame area and on over ( as far as possible ) to the rock outcrops of the Boulder Springs Ranch itself.
There is INDIRECT evidence that DIVSA Eric Marsh became AWARE of this plan… even though it was in its initial stages. Whatever TAC channel Cordes used to instruct HEQB Cory Ball to begin the ‘scouting’ for that operation would have been a channel that DIVSA Eric Marsh could hear as well.
We have no DIRECT evidence that ties this ‘plan’ to Granite Mountain’s mysterious move out of the black
The closest we get is…
1555 – GM is ‘idle’ in rest spot taking pictures
1600 – Cordes tells HEQB Cory Ball to start scouting a ‘dozer line’ that would try to connect up with the Boulder Springs Ranch in a last-ditch effort to keep fire out of Glen Ilah.
1604 – GM has suddenly ‘gaggled up’ and is headed for the Boulder Springs Ranch.
1627 – Someone is asking Eric Marsh where Granite Mountain is and WHY it is taking them so long to get to where someone expected them to be already.
1635 – Gary Cordes absolutely KNEW that Granite Mountain was either supposed to already be at the Boulder Springs Ranch or was just about to arrive there… and he tells Tyson Esquibel to send an engine to the BSR and to make sure they (all) ‘get out safely’.
What we do NOT have is any testimony or other evidence that ties all this together into it being a REASON why Granite Mountain left the safe black ( suddenly ) and was headed for the Boulder Springs Ranch.
One more piece of evidence from somewhere… and all this just might make sense.
It certainly makes sense to not move any resources during the evaluation of a plan’s ability to be implemented.
It would also be within reason (and I’m NOT dismissing here, the 10 & 18 and LCES issues we have discussed over and over), to pre-position a resource that has lost all usefulness at it current location, to a (SAFE) place (in a SAFE manner) where they could re-engage easily and effectively, should the plan under consideration be implemented.
Exactly. I guess that’s all I ( me, personally ) have been trying to establish in the exchange above.
The simple possibility that there could have been AWARENESS on the part of DIVS Eric Marsh of this ‘proposed’ PLAN that *might* be coming together down there involving a dozer push to protect Glen Ilah.
If there WAS awareness on DIVSA’s part that Cordes had started to put the plan into motion down there ( scouting had started, dozer was in place ready to start upon command, etc. )… and DIVSA thought they *might* be needed to help improve that dozer line down there ( if it came together )…
…then give how FAR AWAY they were even while this ‘plan’ was just forming… it would have been ( in Marsh’s mind ) stupid to wait for some radio como about ‘the dozer line is ready now… you can come down’.
No. There would have been OVERLAP in both the timing and the thinking.
This is all IAOI ( If And Only If ) DIVSA Marsh became aware of this ‘plan’ that Cordes had and that he had already told HEQB Cory Ball to begin to implement.
If Marsh really thought that ‘plan’ was even GOING to ‘come together’ down there… he would have been thnking “time is a wastin'” and wold have been urging Steed to start moving right away… so they would already BE in a position to help once there really was a dozer line happening down there.
I think this is one of those points we will have to agree to disagree until there is further evidence
to make this clearer. I can not make the final step and that’s where I am for now.
The other problem is pushing Dozer line across State , Private and BLM land also takes approval and cooperation. Believe it or not EPA, Antiquities Act and permission to cross private property require approval. BLM and Private would have a say in what cat lines were put in just hoops to jump thru.
The Antiquities act has stopped a lot of Dozer line in recent years. Archeologists now make decisions on where and if Dozer lines are put in. You just don’t start putting Dozer line any place you want with out clearance and especially on private land.
Archeologists are on all FS and BLM fires now
If you were unaware of that. I think the State is under the same requirements.
General note: See posts above and see Arizona LAW about what AZ Forestry can/cannot do…
http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/ars/37/00623.htm&Title=37&DocType=ARS
Basically… Arizona Forestry does NOT have to ask anyone for any permission to do just about anything they want in the exercise of their ‘authority’ and ‘responsibility’ to suppress wildfire in Arizona.
Anyone who wanted to push dozer line somewhere can just point at the ground and tell the dozer to GO.
Wtk. At what point do you think Frisby heard marsh reference taking the trail, along the ridge, through the green. As he states in the m2u00271 video. Before heading up to have the face to face with marsh? During his trip, before picking up McDonough, or after picking up McDonough?
Reply to calvin post on December 11, 2014 at 4:48 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> At what point do you think Frisby heard marsh reference
>> taking the trail, along the ridge, through the green. As he
>> states in the m2u00271 video.
Well… first off… I think you have to take Frisby’s statement in context.
He was explaining what he knew to Hulburd, Yowell and Clawson… and that one statement was a ‘continuation’ of his explanation that he started with “They were in the black…”
But then Frisby’s ‘thought’ got ‘interrupted’ by both Hulburd and Yowell.
Yowell thought he meant ‘the lookout’ was the one in the black, and Frisby specifically corrects him. THEN he makes that statement about Eric ‘deciding’ that the trail ‘goes around’.
For the sake of completeness… here is that FULL exchange from M2U00271…
—————————————————–
+0:21
(Brian Frisby): They were sittin’ in cold black.
+0:23
(Trueheart Brown): They were in black.
+0:25
(Uknown – Aaron Hulburd?): (So) THAT’S what they were talking about? (The) Lookout?
+0:28
(Brian Frisby): No. No. (He’s) in black…
+0:30
(Unknown – KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell): ( Overlapping with Frisby ) I heard that (one).
+0:31
(Brian Frisby): …and Eric decided that the trail that kinda follows that ridge..green… goes around. That lookout was down below. I went in to go tie in with Eric… and that’s when it picked up. I just happened to stumble upon the lookout… without the… uh… I grabbed him. ( He’s out ).
——————————————————-
So if you actually take out the ‘interruptions’ from Hulburd and Yowell and the moment where Frisby has to stop and correct Yowell… and you also take out that ‘green’ reference… I believe this is closer to the ‘complete thought’ that Frisby was trying to express at that moment…
(Brian Frisby): They were sittin’ in cold black.and Eric decided that the trail that kinda follows that ridge goes around.
Okay… all that being said… I still think it’s very hard to say what TIMEFRAME Frisby is referring to here about WHEN Eric Marsh ‘decided’ that the trail ‘follows that ridge around’.
I still think Frisby could have been just referencing something Marsh pointed out during their face-to-face back around NOON.
They were standing up there for a full 30 minutes.
At some point Frisby himself could have noticed that two-track heading south and even just pointed at it and asked Marsh… “Where does THAT go?” Marsh had seen that trail on the iPad that morning as Cordes was showing him where the ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’ was. Marsh could have just replied to Frisby… “Oh… that trail… it just sorta goes around down there back towards town” or something like that.
This statement from Frisby, at the time he made it, really is kind of curious. It would SEEM to indicate that Frisby KNEW Marsh had headed ‘south’ on that trail… but that doesn’t match anything Frisby said in his SAIT interview notes… nor does it match what they were just about to DO and WHERE they were about to go look for them ( back up at the anchor point ).
SIDENOTE: A redacted copy of Frisby’s own Unit Log notes WAS released along with the other redacted BR Unit Logs… but the pages from Frisby’s log that cover the deployment timeframe and everything he did ( or thought ) after that have always been MISSING. Those pages were NOT ( and still have NOT been ) released. Frisby’s Unit Log ends with him just describing how he was pushing everyone out of the Shrine area circa 4:30 PM.
However…
There IS the following from BR Captain Trueheart Brown’s Unit Log.
He actually describes pretty specifically where ‘they’ ( he and Frisby ) actually thought the ‘deployment site’ as they broke through in the Shrine area and were rushing ‘out there’.
SIDENOTE: I think you were wondering down below about Oxygen bottles. Here is where Trew Brown says that had a ‘few’ of them with them… and not just ONE.
———————————————–
1725 – We then try to access again via shrine and tie in with ( Redacted, but has to be Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell ) and they have a Polaris razor and a ATV. We only have a few bottle O2, one med bag and a backboard. We tell them about access and where we think the site may be. We drive up as far as we can on shrine and then sit there for a few minutes contemplating the situation. We all know that it is cold black beyond the first wall of heat and the propane tanks that are venting. I remember saying “Fuck it. Let’s go for it” and then we all just go for it. There are multiple trees across the road and power lines are hanging very low too. We punch it and make it through. We head up the Dozer line and the tie into the 2 track and take that until we make the left hand turn up the 2 track to where we think they might be.
———————————————–
So Trew Brown mentions TWICE in this one paragraph ( that actually covers the M2U00271 video timeframe itself ) that he and Frisby had a good idea where the ‘deployment site’ might be….
1) We tell them about access and where we think the site may be.
2) We head up the Dozer line and the tie into the 2 track and take that until we make the left hand turn up the 2 track to where we think they might be.
The ‘left hand turn’ Brown is referring to would be that point at the old-grader where ( when heading west ) you can either take a RIGHT and head up that ‘dead-end’ two-track to the NORTH… or you can take a LEFT and head up that other two-track that now heads southwest but does take you up to the ‘anchor point’.
This is the ‘left-turn’ and the ‘two-track’ that both Frisby and Brown took for the NOON face-to-face and it is the same two-track they both thought GM was ‘coming down’. later that day… and it is NOW the place where they think they got ‘caught’ and where the deployment site might be.
So I’m not even seeing a match there between what Frisby is SAYING to Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell in the M2U00271 video and then what Brown says later in his Unit Log about where they thought the deployment site might be as they were breaking through.
We still do NOT have Frisby’s Unit Log notes that cover this ‘ground mission’ ( and M2U00271 ) timeframe. Those ‘pages’ from Frisby’s Unit Log have NEVER been released by US Forestry… even in a ‘redacted’ form.
Just one more thing ( out of who knows HOW much ) that we KNOW the US Forestry Service still HAS but refuses to release even in response to valid FOIA requests.
So.
After sitting here, reading what I’ve missed, re-reading what I haven’t missed, re-reading what I’ve written. I have another one of my “in reality” questions.
Being an arm-chair quarterback and all.
The discussion about whether “The Cordes Plan” was actually a Plan or a kinda sorta plan or more of just a pipe-dream. In the context of whether the entire day even had a Plan or a kinda sorta plan or more of just a pipe-dream, itself.
I still have “Slow Down, Skippy!!” echoing through my mind. (I think this fire ought to be re-named the “Slow Down, Skippy!” Fire”).
I find it echoing in some of my own “in real life’ situations. It happens when I’m “racing” to get something done, and I’m on some kind of edge, and my mind now, thanks to one of the Three Prescotteers, says “Slow Down, Skippy!!”
And then I realize I need to slow down or I’m possibly going to do something that may cost me more time/grief/money/whatever in the long run than if I slow down and really think about what’s happening.
Seems to me there’s kind of a paradox here. Especially as it relates to this fire. Especially after the fire escaped Initial Attack, but maybe even before that.
Including how they had a PAID-FOR helitack chopper and its PAID-FOR crew mostly sitting there all day Saturday and Sunday, but were TOO BUSY to stop and think about out how to really use it. Especially given that. on Saturday, that helicopter could have been WAY more helpful with that Initial Attack than the SEATs and Tankers they seem to have been agonizing about not being able to hold onto.
Even after the fire escaped, they didn’t bother to use it. There was plenty of light to do it, there were available dipsites, but, seemingly, nobody ever STOPPED to think about how to use it. They were SO BUSY they just let the fire go. And I’m not convinced it wasn’t possible for them to have corralled that fire after it escaped by just getting that helicopter engaged.
And the ordering of the Type 2 Short Crew. They were TOO BUSY “doing stuff” to STOP and actually analyze/document what the fire was doing, what it might do. what might really be needed (given the fuel loads, the communities at risk, what the fire was actually doing, what the weather could do, etc..) And so Phoenix (who wasn’t even there) decided to order a Short Team, and Musser etc (there was a BLM Type 3 Incident Commander right by his SIDE as this was happening) apparently was TOO BUSY doing “other stuff” to STOP and think about whether that team would be adequate because they hadn’t bothered to STOP and do the Required Standard Operating Procedure of filling out an Escaped Fire Report.
And then the dumping of retardant on Granite Mountain’s test fire. WTF??? Because Rory Collins was, seemingly, TOO BUSY doing whatever he thought he was doing to STOP and have a conversation with Eric/Granite Mountain about what Strategy/Tactics they were using and WHY (since it was, apparently, “different” from how they fight fires in the Northwest–a totally different ecosystem/fire system than the one he was actually flying over as Air Attack).
Personally, I could go ON AND ON about this stuff.
And so now we have this Plan/kinda-sorta-plan/possible pipe-dream. Which may (or may not) have been, relatively speaking, scratched out on a napkin between Gary Cordes and Paul Musser (I’ve done that sort of planning in my life–but with WAY fewer lives at risk).
So Gary Cordes started “throwing resources” into his “Plan.” Including, at least, a dozer, a dozer operator, a Blue Ridge IHC HEQB, and, “hopefully,” an engine or two. And, maybe even Granite Mountain IHC.
Because OMG the fire is heading towards Yarnell/Glen Ilah, and jumping “trigger points” and “outperforming our expectations”!!!
That’s where the paradox comes in.
I’m really curious. Several of you, my compadres around this fire circle, have conversed about how things are “supposed” to be done. What’s “supposed” to be done comes across to me as being deliberate, relatively analytical, looking realistically into the future (including possible worst case scenarios), communicative, and concerned, above all, about fire-fighter and civilian SAFETY (at least in theory).
That stuff takes TIME. It seems to me it takes STOPPING being TOO BUSY (at least it does FOR ME).
On real fires, does this actually happen?
Do over-stressed decision-makers (when things are speeding up and “outperforming expectations”) actually consciously realize/decide to STOP BEING TOO BUSY, while things are racing all around them, for AS LONG AS IT TAKES (in spite of the time-pressure) to really consider all this stuff that is happening around them, all the people who are involved, the MOST LIKELY things that COULD happen, the worst possible scenarios, the various resources they have “in their various pockets,” and THUS, what they need to decide they need to do?
Does training for these kinds of positions include how to do that? Does it include how to recognize when it’s time to “Slow Down, Skippy!!!”???
Thanks, to all my compadres around this fire circle, in advance.
Yes that does happen. I have been on numerous expanding incidents that teams have arrived on and won’t take the incident until they have full awareness of the situation, resources on scene, potential, the priorities of the host agency, cost estimate( amount the host would like to keep it under). This is all discussed and accepted during a transition and “delagation of authority” meeting.
Extremely difficult to do during a rapidly expanding event, but for obvious reasons, organization, safety, command and control, a step that is extremely important.
As Retired 38— says correct and I have seen portions of Fires or the whole Fire be pulled back from all work to safe areas until an evaluation of a new plan can be formulated. When the fire is kicking your butt as Marti says the Command people
need to say who slow down Skippy lets not put people in danger until we have a plan in place Command type teams are thought that in training for Type 2 and 1 teams.
When you start developing a plan you don’t start moving resources until all of the plan has been put together and acceptable to The IC.
For example Ball went to scout the idea of a Dozer line He did not take the Dozer with him. It was a Idea not a plan or a directed start building line.
Moving an entire Hand crew off a Division with out a Plan in place or where to start
Just dose not happen. And we have no talk of such a plan. So maybe an Idea that was being discussed until OPS found out the Fire was out running his possible plan
You are making a huge jump from a Tractor Boss Scouting a possible New Line to it being a feasible Plan. Again to those of you who have never Fought Fire.
You just do not make Frontal attacks on fires With those burning conditions and Wind. It is to late to Fire out Roads do to erratic Winds or Dozer lines the only choices you have are pulling back and protecting structures where you can with out putting you Fire Fighters at risk. Starting new line to flank the Fire.
I do not believe a plan was ever really initiated but only discussed.
All good questions ( as usual ) Marti.
The academic side of me just wants to post that link that RTS found again to those great documents about ‘Decision Making’… but then I say ‘Slow Down Skippy’ and realize those documents ( while perfectly relevant ) do NOT answer the REAL questions you are asking.
You are not asking… how is it SUPPOSED to be.
You are asking people with current/past WFF experience to say whether the ‘chaos’, the disorganization, the myopia, the poor decision making and the general “who is really running this thing?” feeling at the Yarnell Hill fire was NORMAL… or not… and whether this kind of rolling fuster clucking is REALLY just kinda ‘the way it is’ during a transition from an IA to an up-level incident ( even if the up-level people arriving turn right around and just treat it as still an IA situation ).
Something tells me the HONEST answers would be “more often than you would think”.
In all truth… regardless of whether some of the ‘ultimate’ answers are ever found as to why 19 people who were supposed to be highly trained ‘fire experts’ and the ‘best of the best’ ended up burned to death in a box canyon… this Yarnell Hill Fire has to now be one of the best photo/video + testimony + Unit Logs documented fires EVER.
Speaking of ‘Slow Down Skippy’… have you had moments where I have had while sifting through ALL of this material and the massive amounts of photos and videos where you go… “Wow… I can’t believe how MUCH there really is here?”
It’s really quite amazing how MANY photos and videos there are of this damn fire.
I think that is a GOOD thing.
The Yarnell Hill Fire really does ‘belong to the ages’ now already… and I hate to inform everyone who wants it to just ‘go away’ but I have a ‘news flash’ for them. It is NEVER going to ‘go away’. Not only is it officially the ‘greatest blunder in the history of Wildland Firefighting’… it is also the FIRST major WFF disaster of the FULL-RPM Internet/Social Media age. Not only WILL it be ‘studied’ for years to come… it will also now be EASY to do so.
And I can also assure you…As much ‘evidence’ as there is right now… there is no doubt MORE to come. Whatever is NOT known now… WILL (eventually) be known. It is as inevitable as it can be. History doesn’t like these kinds of ‘mysteries’ and they get SOLVED, sooner or later.
I agree with you that KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s admonishment to that Peeples Valley Water Tender driver to ‘Slow down Skippy’ could easily be one of the most important “Lessons Learned” itself for this tragedy…
…but for the time being… and as we continue to look at this thing… my ACTUAL favorite ‘radio quote’ so far ALSO comes from Mr. KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell.
It’s from that moment when he and Hulburd are standing there looking down the Shrine Road and Yowell is actually convinced that Granite Mountain has deployed somewhere right there beyond the end of Shrine Road.
Yowell says “They’re RIGHT BACK THERE somewhere”.
Hulburd says… “But they moved OUT of the BLACK’.
( Here comes MY favorite quote ).
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell turns to Hulburd and says ( with unbelief in his voice )…
“Yea… I know. WHY?”
Yes the chaos is there, and yes it is normally a “fluster cluck”. But, with quality information on the situation provided by the host agency it gives the incoming team something to work with. We have often transitioned on the run and have at a minimum come up with maps, tactics and strategy-at time the “plan for that first operational period was handwritten, but it was a plan that was distributed to all resources.
Thank you. However… have you ever seen ( or heard of ) a situation quite like Yarnell where even a lot of the members of the SHORT team that was supposed to ‘pick it up’ in the morning didn’t even show up?
Bad enough it was a ‘SHORT team’ decision the night before… MANY of the people ordered up the night before never even showed up in the morning.
So it was actually a SHORT-SHORT team on Sunday morning trying to take over that fire.
Thanks for asking this.
And that is when the Team needs to step back scout the Fire and determine the best attack with there resources.
This partial team seemed to have a shot gun approach with out any Idea what they could accomplish.
But they did establish a chain of Command with what they had.
IC,OPS LINE, OPS PLANNING, DIVISONS and STRICK TEAMS..
So we need to first determine was there a complete brake down in Command. Were People doing there own thing and there was no Control central making decisions?
If this is what was happening which seems to be the case.
Then GM and others were making there own plans and who knows what they were or if there were any at 1600 on.