Please begin a new comment section below as Chapter II is filling up. Please keep the dialogue positive and informative. I’m working on upgrading the site to handle the heavy comment load.
And, I’m in the process of uploading the entire Arizona Forestry Division SAIR supplemental data. It’s 58GB of data and is taking considerable time. Thank you for your patience.
© Copyright 2013 John Dougherty, All rights Reserved. Written For: Investigative MEDIA
We are all moving to Chapter IV and started there for you just checking in.
both of us stating the investigators never mention the Helms (Boulder Springs Ranch) in the interview if they stayed behind like we have heard than not only would they know more clarity to this topic but we know for I have hiked that area for many of years and its well known they had surveillance cameras so was Marsh on the footage? Did Marsh talk to the Helms while he was there? Did the Helms warn Marsh of the maze-like terrain (SLOW GOING) and he was at the ranch than was alerted and went to assist his men than got faced with the flames yet it just does not add up because if he did make it there he had to know how difficult that terrain was to maneuver through again TIME CONSUMING as well. Did they believe those shelters would save them if they got caught in that trap? The fact is that Marsh could have gone through that brush alone much faster than probably anyone in his crew that day. Everyone has to remember we had no clue who was who and we have shared the SAME from the moment we came back even as we learned who was who and the fact is the other men were spent and the last man we stated looked ill and Norbert of Stern Magazine confirmed the last man was Donut so that compliments the very accounts we saw. We have no agenda. We are not writing books or getting the next big story or big payroll yet we do share it exactly as we seen it and correct areas over time if we see it reported or narrated differently. CLEAR THIS UP— we know
Y O U can if you just finally share.
OK. I wasn’t gonna do it but I did. Here’s the comment I left on Wildfire Today:
“Holly~
and Bill~
I appreciate your attempt to make sense of what doesn’t make sense. We’re all trying to do that, and for the same reasons.
But your narrative/timeline is just way off and based more on speculation than fact. And what I conceiver to be incorrect speculation at that.
I confess, I’m part of that ASAIT crew, camped out over at JD’s site with our marshmallows and hot chocolate. We’ve been there ever since the SAIR, and some before that. We’ve picked apart, argued over, added to, subtracted from, unconnected and then re-connected dots every time something has surfaced. I play the role of the resident photographer, because I am one.
I’m the one over there who, upon noticing Chris MacKenzie’s camera (the one used for this photograph that you are using for one of your anchors), sitting in the middle of the site as if trying to catch my attention, when it couldn’t seem to catch anybody else’s, said to myself, “I’m gonna find out what happened to that camera.” And I did. It took me a month plus of constant work thru the holidays to do it. As I did it, I took it upon myself to document how that site was investigated, what was on it, where every thing went, and only then was able to keep following the dots on the path Chris’s camera took. What I discovered was that the PFD had removed it from the site after the SAIT “investigation,” kept it out of the chain of evidence, did some tricky maneuvers to get it to Chris’s father so nobody would know about it, but Chris’s dad outsmarted them in the end. Now we are learning there are at least one, if not two, critical cellphones they probably did the same thing with. And, just today, we discovered a GPS unit that fairly cleanly survived that fire, that they probably did the same thing with, also.
Our timelines may have some holes in them but not very many at this point. The big holes are not in the timelines.
I was the one who posted this article over there last night, thanks to being alerted to it by Sonny. It was quite a bombshell. I was speechless. It was like fruitbasket upset.
But as folks discussed it, trying to, as we do, fit it into our existing timelines and try to figure out what needs to be adjusted, a lot of us began coming to the same general conclusion. It can’t be done.
We tend to pound each other over the head a bit when speculation exceeds evidence too much. It’s our informal version of peer review. And yes we do speculate. But we also do a ton of fact-finding.
So. Point 1. Eric Marsh was NOT with the GMHS when this chapter began. From what you have “said,” it seems to me you are one of the many who has been led to believe this by the common narrative. He was a considerable distance above them. There is no evidence he was ever “with the crew” that day. At least until the very bitter end. It was not his job to be with “the crew.” He was the Div A Sup, it was his job to keep his eyes on the larger game and oversee Steed and the crew in relationship to other crews, which included the Blue Ridge Hotshots.
He had called BR Sup Brian Frisbee over for a “meeting” at the anchor point, which was well above where the crew was when this photo was taken. Frisbee, while on his way east to west to meet with Marsh, noticed the fire picking up speed towards them, GM Lookout McDonough with the fire coming down on him, and so grabbed McDonough and got him on the ATV, turned around and headed back to the east. Marsh was still up there when all that happened. He wasn’t with the GM Hotshots.
Point 3. Meanwhile, I don’t know what you mean by a handline, but the crew in this photo was not all that close to where they had been working. They were below it. They were taking a break while Eric and others were having a radio conversation about their “options.”
Point 4. About the sawyers Chris photographed. Before this photo, he had shot this very same Andrew Ashcraft comfortably sitting on a rock down below him, shooting with his cellphone, and sending one of those photos to his wife. Andrew, as far as I know, wasn’t even participating in this conversation. Seventeen seconds later Chris shoots him walking away from this rock with his saw. That’s before even Chris heard–and then decided it was important enough to take the videos he did–Eric, somebody else, and Steed discussing their options. And that’s it. That’s all there is of Andrew and the other sawyer walking. Who can say, from this single still photo, where they were walking, and why they were walking? And what they were thinking, much less planning to do, before or while they were walking. Maybe they were heading out a little tiny bit earlier than the rest of the crew. But maybe they weren’t. Maybe doesn’t make the anchor point of a whole theory such as you are proposing. There is nothing to anchor the theory you are proposing vis a vis the sawyers.
Point 5. Given that Marsh was a significant distance above the crew, I can’t imagine a way he could have, short of Batman powers, made it down past his crew, down to the saddle, and then down through the brush filled bowl, to the Boulder Ranch by the time you are stating he was there. We have played these timelines out over and over again, argued them thoroughly, and always ended up with him being behind the crew, above the crew, until a bit after he stepped over the rim of the bowl, after having seen them in it.
Point 6. Ok, let’s assume Eric had those Batman powers. There’s still no evidence he ever connected up with those sawyers. But let’s say somehow he did got down to the ranch by then. Let’s say he was there at the time you say he had that conversation about being at the “house”–which I agree with others I will only believe it when I hear it and I doubt that was what he was saying. (We’ve had endless arguments about exactly what is being said in these often noisy videos of radio calls).
But anyway. Let’s say he was there. Saying that that was where he was. At that time the winds were shifting further to the NE, causing the fire to press further to the southwest. That was EXACTLY the time the fire was driving right around the bottom of the ridge at the mouth of the canyon, and thus beginning to chimney right up into it. That’s EACTLY what was going on then.
There is no conceivable way I can possibly imagine Eric Marsh, at this point (and yes I agree he made his share of mistakes this day, but NONE of us knows what he decided, or why he decided that; all we know is the consequences) doing ANYTHING but radio-ing the GMHS and telling them to drop EVERYTHING and run, down the bowl ASAP and also stick to the south side of the canyon because the north side is going to get burned faster. Because that was exactly what he would have been seeing at that time.
There’s no way in the Universe he would have, pack and stuff on his back and all, thought “OK. I guess I’ll take a quick hike up there just to die with the rest of my sons, the heroic Granite Mountain Hotshots.” Because if he was down there where you are asserting he was, he would have seen the proof that that was what was going to happen if they didn’t get out of there really fast.
And, I add, if he had time to slog up there with his pack, they certainly would have had time to run down without them.
Namaste
~Marti”
And thanks to all of you, for writing about this today, so I could think it through and then write it. I hope they get it.
BTW My comment is still “waiting moderation.” But I expect it will eventually get through.
Thanks to you Marti you put it together well. I hope you posted the same on wildfire today Ill jump over and check.
John has added Chapter IV for us to start on just saw it.
Thank You!
WTKTT— if you noticed over on the wildfire today threat Holly is saying the crew took 10 min to the saddle drop off into the bowl and they were there at 1602 when the crew was actually at the lunch spot and had not moved yet.
Some bodies on the wrong time frame and I don’t think its us.
IT AIN’T SO!!!
Hollie’s basing that whole timeline on that ONE STILL PHOTO of Ashcraft et al walking away from the rocks down below the crew, after they had been sitting on those rocks while he took a picture. And this is BEFORE Chris’s video. So yeah, I can imagine maybe kinda they might have headed out a little earlier than anybody else. Maybe. But there’s absolutely no PROOF that they did. And no proof whatsoever that they did what she’s insisting they did after that.
And I believe we’re right on here to be pretty much insisting that Eric was a ways above the crew to meet Frisbee, and there’s NO WAY he could’ve gotten to the ranch-house when she’s insisting he did, and even if he had, he wouldn’t have been turning to go back up there when he would have been SEEING the fire wrap around the bottom of the ridge.
Keep up the good fight. I have no time to go over there except just to read. Which I will.
I think she’s gonna regret having thrown this together.
OK, so now where were we???
Now they released a statement on wildfire today that they had the radio message fine tuned and that is what marsh said and they had others listen to it before they released there statement. so has any body found and listened to this clear audio from marsh? I have not found it yet.
WTKTT—They have pictures that bill has in a statement of his listing the Prescott Dailey.
#0887 they say is at 1552 and yet 0889 at 1602 is the same fire spread and smoke there is not a 10 min. change in the fire from those pictures and I think the Sawyers are just moving up to the rest of the crew where Mckinezy takes the next two pictures at 1602. These are the same pictures we have time frames on that you listed some days ago. That’s what they are basing the 1552 sawyers movement on.
I think one of the fundamental ‘wrong’
assumptions that Hollie/Maclean are making
is that they are simply trusting what the
SAIR said about that ‘lunch spot’. They
are taking that for gospel, or something, and
that ALL of these photos that have surfaced
were simply taken from the SAME spot.
So when they see the ‘sawyers’ moving
out the only conclusion that comes to
mind (for them) is that they were now
‘leaving the others’ and headed south
to go vertical cut some canyon.
There were TWO ‘movements’ that
afternoon between 3:50 and 4:05.
They were taking photos at TWO
different locations. We crossed that bridge
over here on this thread about 2 months ago.
The ‘moving out’ photos from 3:50 are
simply everyone moving ‘down’ and
‘south’ a little to the NEXT resting spot
where the MacKenzie videos will be
taken and we hear them ‘discussing their
options’ some more. It’s NOT the same
spot where the 3:50 photos/videos were
taken… and neither spot is ‘the lunch spot’.
There WAS a lunch spot. Tex Gilligan has
even found some of the ‘garbage’ they
left there. That ‘lunch spot’ is, in fact, close
to where the SAIR had it marked.
But that ‘lunch spot’ is NOT the place
where either the 3:50 photos/videos or
the 4:02 photos/videos were taken.
There are really TWO ‘new’ claims being
made here.
1) Eric Marsh must have been at the ranch
ahead of everyone because they believe
they hear the word ‘house’ in a background
radio communication. Maybe. Maybe not.
2) A bunch of the ‘sawyers’ left the ‘lunch
spot’ to go take care of some business
ahead of the crew because there are simply
one or two photos taken at 3:50 which
shows them slinging their saws and leaving
the (supposed) ‘lunch spot’… so they must
have been ‘leaving the others’ at that time
and heading to the ranch ahead of them.
Maybe. Maybe not.
Believing assumption (1) makes it easier
to then believe assumption (2)… but I don’t
think the full evidence is going to support
either one in the end… no matter what
anyone *thinks* they are hearing Marsh
say in the background of some video.
By the way… am I the only one catching
the ‘Die Hard’ connection/reference here
when it comes to Maclean/Hollie?
It doesn’t take me five minutes to re-load the page. But the scrolling and typing are awful. I think we’re reluctant (I know I am) to leave old comments too far behind. Given how much everything can change in a day.
Anyway. Re the SAWYER in the VIDEO and ANDREW ASHCRAFT
I just finally downloaded Chris’s cellphone pix. And looked at them sequenced with his camera pix.
Ashcraft, when he is taking that cellphone pic, is sitting on a red-coated rock (we know what that means) with another guy, much lower down than the rest of the crew. Chris is shooting him from back up at the top with the rest of the crew. He’s shooting at 80 mm. That’s a medium zoom and a quite different from the 35mm cellphone focal length he’s using for the others, mostly, I think.
You can’t see them down there from Chris’s cellphone photos. But in the first one, I think, of this collection, you can see a batch of red coated rocks way down below. Where they’re sitting and walking out of are some big unburned shrubs. It almost looks like another place. Because it actually is.
There’s just no way Ashcraft et al are in the photos/video of the crew at the top. And since there’s another guy with them I think there are three down there where Ashcraft is. Two sawyers and a “swamper”?
That’s what I think. I would think they would put their fastest sawyers on this little project. Which is why I think the other sawyer exiting with him is Travis Carter, the Lead Saw Crew Boss. But maybe that’s just total speculation. But at least it’s based on what I’m looking at.
BTW I think Chris’s camera’s timestamping is pretty accurate after all. I think the reason for the perceived confusion is because the different ways he is photographing this. His cellphone pix are geotagged. No canon powershot can do that. I think the reason he he would use his cellphone at points and not just the canon was mostly for that reason. Otherwise there would be no point that I can think of to go thru the hassle of switching back and forth. I would have just stayed with the camera (better quality pictures and zoom), unless I wanted to get some geotagging in the mix. Which is exactly why I need to get a smartphone, which I don’t have.
And another by the way.
The file numbers on Chris’s cellphone are rather wacky. I don’t know why. I I don’t know how this stuff works. You can’t order them by filenumber and have them make any sense. You have to order them by capture time. Then everything falls into place pretty nice and neat, including with the camera pix, I think.
Back to time frames we have been working with WTKTT.
Marsh was waiting to meet Frisby above the old cat when he picked up McDonough. That time was around 1535 ?
How was he able to get past the crew from where he was and down to the ranch in that time frame?
We know he was to meet Frisby where they meet earlier.
That is why we all felt he was behind the crew in the first place and would make the new location impossible. Frisby came up the same way and picked up McDonough. Relook at the times and I think Marsh could not have possibly made that move in the time frame that is now being shown.
No… it’s really not possible… unless a WHOLE lot of other
things already testified to are now wrong.
ALL the official documents ( SAIR, ADOSH, WFAR, YIN notes )
pretty much agree on the story we have been asked to believe
which is…
At 1550… Brian Frisby was on his way out west for this
‘face-to-face’ that Marsh had just requested all the way out
at the anchor spot… where he and Frisby met before
around NOON.
It was only then that Frisby ‘accidentally’ came across Brendan
evacuating his lookout spot and standing near the old-grader.
Frisby can now see for himself how close the fire is out there
to that old-grader… and moving SOUTH pretty fast.
Frisby decides the only safe thing to do is abandon any plans
to keep heading west for that ‘face-to-face’ and he loads
Brendan into the ATV and heads back east the way he came.
Frisby drops Brendan off back where the GM vehicles were
parked just around 1555.
The only real ‘wrench in the works’ with that story is that ADOSH
published photos taken by Brendan back at the GM vehicles
that had time stamps of 1549 on them. That pushes all the
‘official’ timelines off by 5 minutes.
That still isn’t resolved… but regardless… that means that
Marsh was, in fact, EXPECTING Frisby to show up for this
face-to-face he asked for at the anchor spot… and that means
he would have been right up there on the ridge as late as 1550
just waiting for him to arrive until he heard that Frisby had picked
up Brendan and was evacuating him and wouldn’t be coming up
for that meeting.
So now we are at 1550… Marsh is still up near the anchor point
where he was definitely expecting Frisby to show up…
…and here comes the known 1550 Caldwell video capturing this…
Eric Marsh (DIVS A): Yea… I’m tryin’ to work my way off the top.
Todd Abel ( OPS1 ): Okay… I copy… ah… just keep me updated…
ah… ya know… you guys hunker and be safe and then… ah…
we’ll get some air support down there ASAP.
Is it possible that Marsh’s ‘work my way off the top’ could now
mean he was ‘coming all the way down’?
Perhaps… but I don’t believe that.
I still think Marsh’s “workin’ my way off the top” still meant
exactly what he said. He was simply working his way back
south off the TOP of the Weaver Mountains where he had
been scouting all day and back towards the anchor point.
Now here come the 1602 ‘discussing their options’ and
‘comfort level’ discussions. Why would Marsh be asking
Steed about his ‘comfort level’ if he had already decided
they were all going to leave the black fer sure and he was
now way south and ‘scouting the escape route’ himself?
So even if that is what happened ( Marsh went south to
scout the escape route either alone or with sawyers )
I don’t think that could have happened until AFTER the
MacKenzie videos and the ‘discussing their options’ stuff.
But now we are only 3 minutes away from the entire crew
‘gaggling up’ ( at 1605 ), leaving the spot where Christopher
shot his videos, and heading south, anyway.
So even in the new scenario… that means Marsh would have
had only been just a few minutes ‘ahead’ of them… not
a half hour. No way.
So something is just not right about a new scenario where
Marsh is somehow already all the way at the Boulder Springs
Ranch when that “I’m at the house” transmission is (supposedly)
heard.
Which… by the way… is still not definite.
We still don’t know exactly WHEN Marsh is supposed to
have said “I’m at the house where we’re going to jump out”.
More to come on this… I’m sure.
By the way… if ANY of this ‘new scenario’ is true…
Then both Darrell Willis and Brendan McDonough can
still probably tell us all about it.
**
** ROBERT CALDWELL’S GARMIN OREGON 450 GPS UNIT APPEARS
** TO BE BURIED IN THE DIRT THERE AT THE DEPLOYMENT SITE
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 20, 2014 at 7:38 am
>> Marti said…
>>
>> I “identified” Radio 13 as being Caldwell’s radio, because the closest body
>> (I think) is Caldwell’s. It’s in a pile of stuff I think might be a pack. It’s on
>> the “outside” of the Deployment area.
Thanks Marti.
I think I see the Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit there in that photo now.
In fact… I’m pretty sure about it.
I’m talking about photo 50 ( or 109 photos ) in this folder…
https://plus.google.com/photos/115249047962550271237/albums/5962242148909920913
Just to the right of the radio is what looks to be a ‘ball’ of fiberglass wadding
or something ( shelter remnants, perhaps ).
Look STRAIGHT UP from that ‘ball of wadding’.
There is some kind of electronic device sort of ‘buried in the dirt’ right there.
It looks VERY much like the BACK of Caldwell’s Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit.
It has the right color and the right sort of ‘curves’ to it including the slight ‘bulbous’
shape that would be seen on the top-back of an Oregon 450.
It looks to be in pretty good shape. Not burned at all… just BURIED in the dirt.
If that is NOT the Oregon 450 GPS unit… then it certainly is the back of SOME
kind of handheld electronic device and it’s not a radio and it’s not a smartphone.
So it looks like the ‘story’ on Caldwell’s Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit is going
to be just like Christopher MacKenzie’s camera.
It was THERE ( We can SEE it was there ), just lying on the ground, pretty
much undamaged… but it (apparently) never made it into the real
‘chain of evidence’.
Once again… It’s going to be all about what the Prescott Fire Department
did or didn’t do with these things that THEY removed from the site.
Awesome! I knew you would figure that out.
I remember looking at that thing, thinking, “Ummmm, that’s a THING!!!!”
But I didn’t know what it was, and I had kinda decided to to try to write up all the gazillions of things I had found that I didn’t know what they were. I was sick of crawling around on the deployment site.
But, yeah. There’s no doubt in my mind the PFD has found some very “useful” stuff amidst that haul they took in that evening after the SAIT visit.
typo I had decided to NOT write up all those gazillions of things….
Hmm… if you check out photo 049 (previous one), you can see a couple carabiners in the lower right corner. I think the GPS unit might be down there. In MacKenzie’s IMG_0876 photo, you can see it hanging by a carabiner, and it is pretty small. I think the two grey objects above and to the right of the radio in photos 049 and 050 are actually partially melted water bottles. I could be wrong; this is just my interpretation. But I still think that a carabiner is likely to lead us to the GPS unit.
You need to check the changes in the story now happening in the Wildfire today article. Now she never said the chain saw crew ever got to the ranch but somehow Marsh did and then rejoined the crew in a 40 min. time frame. Not possible, not possible. They are reading something into the radio traffic that is not there. We already know that after the burn someone ran from the top to the Ranch with no brush and took 22 min.
Reply to Bob Powers post on January 20, 2014 at 11:44 am
>> Mr. Powers wrote…
>> They are reading something into the radio traffic
>> that is not there.
I believe that might turn out to be the case.
If this entire ‘new’ theory hinges on someone thinking they hear
the single word ‘house’ in a background radio transmission
accidentally captured in a video shot in a noisy, flying airplane…
…then they better be pretty certain about that one single word.
I still would tend to believe that Marsh MAY have been ‘ahead’
of the crew circa 4:20, instead of lagging way behind… but
I would also be more likely to believe he said ‘jump off’ spot
instead of ‘jump out’ and he may have simply been standing
at the spot where they were going to ‘jump off the two-track’
when that transmission happened. Ahead of the crew, maybe,
but not all the way at the frickin’ ranch.
We still haven’t seen any of the security camera videos shot
at the perimeter of the Boulder Springs Ranch. I would think,
if Marsh ever made it anywhere near there… he would be seen
in one of those videos.
I hope everyone ( Mr. Maclean and Wildfire today as well )
realizes this is NOT a ‘contest’.
At all times… we need to try our best to ‘get this right’.
Theories ( backed by some possible evidence ) are
ALWAYS welcome… but be prepared for revisions.
I have always been ready to put forth ideas that I think are
based on evidence I’m seeing… but ( even despite what
some detractors of mine have said )… I am ALWAYS
ready to be DEAD WRONG.
That’s how this sort of thing goes.
One step at a time… and sometimes that step is ‘backwards’.
While I respect John Maclean do not take every thing he says as fact.
Reference– The Rattle Snake Fire My father died on his best friend and Bob Werner who became my step father. 50 years later my step dad told John that he was on the engine that was at the spot fire and had a hose line to the crew. he went for water and got back in time to try and help the crew out of the brush and managed to get 9 up the hose lay. John did not believe him and did not put that in his book. My step dad told John where to put it. My dad had 35 years in the FS and retired in 1981 he blamed himself for my dad and the other 14 who died had he been on the hose lay they would have all got out.
Another Fire The Saddler Fire 1999. Some friends of mine took blame that was not theirs that john inserted into the book. So I reserve judgment on this new info.
If Marsh was at the ranch, would he have not had “eyes” on the fire and been able to warn the crew? He would have passed through the mouth of the canyon and presumably would have seen that the direction and speed had changed. For those here who have seen the site, is this correct or not? So if in fact he was acting as a scout and a lookout, why no warning? I too am skeptical that this information is what it purports to be. It is such a dramatic change in the facts that Mr. MacLean better be right.
Holly Neill is posting comments at Wildfire Today, so maybe there will be some clarifications and further evidence there.
Finally, it is starting to take about 5 minutes to load this thread. Why do we not move it over to the most recent posting that JD just put up?
What you wrote is pretty much exactly what I wrote just up above. Absolutely.
Like I wrote, my pages don’t take that long to load, but typing really AWFUL.
I think you’re right. Time to get out of the mud.
If Marsh took Sawyers clear to ranch I would dought they would run clear back to the crew impossible with saws and packs 600 Yds.
Also if they had cut a route the crew should have been able to double time down it to the ranch. I do not believe if they decided to go that way at 1555
they could have done much trail work off the hill. My bet jump off spot not house which means he was at the saddle ready to drop into the canyon. as thick as the brush was the crew with the other chain saws would have caught up to them and would account for saws running at first transmission of the flaming front. Also again we have radio communications during the no communications time but what freq. were they on Air or Div. Some body knew exactly where they were. I still dought they got to ranch and came back. If they had Marsh would have had eyes on the fire and been pushing the crew to double time it out. Where the hell was the SAIT on this.
At a more basic level, that type of brush is hard to clear. Just as I believe they are much more likely than not to have used their phones to pull up maps, and simply ignored them by deciding to drop into the bowl, the idea that they thought they’d simply do a little quick pruning for an easy hike down to the ranch is difficult to swallow. But, entirely possible. Obviously they were trying to clear and burn out their deployment site when, likewise, even a bulldozer wouldn’t have had time to do so. So, at deployment, when they should have been running one way or the other since deployment was clearly not survivable and there was no time to improve their site, they were focused on cutting and deploying.
So, given their known decisions, it is very possible they also thought they could cut a clear path down quickly, or that cutting was simply the thing “to do,” just like deploying seems to have been viewed without assessing it. It runs counter to what their past experience had to have told them about that type of brush, of course. Along with all the past bad decisions and risk-taking that’s already been discussed, I wonder (purely speculatively, I have heard nothing from anyone as to this question) if they’d in the past headed down a drainage that was fairly open in the wash itself, with fewer and more mature trees so that they tended to think that was a good bet in a similar area? (It’s not, as those kinds of washes can vary from open to wicked.)
My first thoughts as I read that and some of the earlier comments, and tried to wrap my brain around it was no way!
If Marsh had been at the bottom at that time, at the ranch, he would have seen what they all MISSED.
The wind shift, the fire wrapping around the bottom of the ridge and setting up to blow up the chimney. He would have COMMANDED them to get their butts down (RUN!!!) ASAP and, oh by the way stay on the south side cuz it’s gonna burn the north side first. Which is exactly what it did. Or am I missing something?
guess who? Joy. the part I do not understand as much as I want to believe in my own ideas and thoughts that Marsh was way ahead of the men and that he always had his eyes on the fire and he never led 18 men to their deaths and in what I read from Holly and John last night—I trust if they heard something I cannot yet hear that they would not publicly write or share about something because they base sharing with facts to back it up so Sonny would like to see the photos of the stubs from the sawyers because OSHA scouted it pretty well when we were there and we just hope they have source/documents to make and sense there. Than there is the TIME STAMP. You all here have done an excellent job dissecting it but I just cannot imagine Eric Marsh that GOOD to get from the fire edge to the ranch in what was it Bob Powers- 40 minutes? no, I have hiked the area too long and YES Marsh was stamina and speed but how did the sawyers enter the scenario—how did they come to that conclusion? Just their hunch like we all have expressed our hunches over time? I say EXCELLENT to the video but Elizabeth did it say all that or is Bob Powers right in the questions he asks? We have offered you all purity and if we ever go off on to personal perception- we let you know but you have seen documents from us and videos and now the first photo that actually has accurate time stamp near the fire edge at 9:40am. I wish John M. answers your question even if it was an old one Bob Powers of why your family member was never entered into the book. We have walked with so many authors and a lot thank us for the hiking tour guide moment yet we do not expect nor desire to be in books unless it is to document only things they can factually state—no more bullsh** like S. McKinnon did at the azcentral narrating and saying we will get back to you on the retraction to weeks later pass by and nothing. Really does not matter what he wrote because the TRUTH is the TRUTH and I just figured he wrote true stories not a collaboration of the stories and narrate about us that was not what we even shared like we left from Yarnell not Congress. I hope to hear more unravel from this recent story. I really will read the comment wall and than log out. Thank you for asking me to visit and view-
Could be Helitack with the Helicopter unloading maybe pumps or pumpkin filling. Just a thought.
I’m kinda sorta thinking the videos being referenced may be on their way to JD’s dropbox and into the folder called:
“A05-Aerial Firefighting Study Photos and Videos: Pending”
Yes, Marti. They are the videos I referenced back on January 12th – a full week ago. If WTKTT wants to e-mail me directly, I can help him get the videos, so that he or someone can post them. I have 30 or so videos already posted, but the air-to-air ones are too big. My impression is the John Dougherty might be having the same issue, because he asked me for my copy of the Blue Ridge GPS video, which WTKTT had down-sized me. I believe that John Doughtery ultimately posted my copy, because the original copy from the FOIA was too large to post.
Thx. And yes, he was grumbling in an email to me the other day that uploading was taking him FOREVER.
And he is refusing to e-mail ME because…..?
Weirdest thing. In that same email, he thought I was you.
So I told him I was not, and gave him your email address.
I think he was confused by something. Of course I have no idea how that feels ever. I just can’t imagine. If you want me to forward that email to you I will.
Elizabeth… what FORMAT are these air-videos in?
Are they in AVI format like the Blue Ridge
tracking thing was?
Just look at the last few letters of the filename(s)
following the ‘period’.
That tells you what FORMAT the thing is in…
Examples…
something.mov = An Apple Quicktime video file
something.avi = An AVI video file
something.mp4 = An MP4 video file
something.pdf = An Adobe PDF document
etc.
AVI files can be reduced by 80 to 90 percent with
NO loss of any video or audio quality.
If the files are too big to upload to that dropbox I gave
you for converting the Blue Ridge Tracking video
then email isn’t going to work.
Actually, I want to correct myself – those are NOT the videos that I think Holly is referencing. I asked John Maclean to share with us the labels on the videos, so that I can point you to the right ones in either my dump or JD’s, but I have not heard back from Maclean on that. In his defense, I suppose selling books is easier if you have information in them that you did not share prior, so I’m not sure whether he will want to share it. But I asked, at least.
Regarding the Wildfiretoday piece covering Holly Neil and John Maclean’s new reporting, the team of sawyers heading down first to use “vertical cut and slash” to improve the “escape route” is another WTF moment.
Reply to calvin post on January 19, 2014 at 10:38 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> WTKTT…. Does that mean image 2733 (p23 SAIR) is also taken
>> at 1550 as the SAIR says?
Yes. It ( finally ) does.
The story on that (pesky) P23 photo now is that it was NEVER actually the
missing sequential MacKenzie Canon Powershot image IMG_0888 as I had
originally thought it might be. It simply wasn’t until the SAIT FOIA stuff started
appearing that we learned how the Canon Powershot was simply continuing
its sequential numbering for BOTH still photos AND movies.
So IMG_0888 was never really ‘missing’ at all from the original ‘MacKenzie’
photos published by Prescott Courier and AZREPUBLIC. They just failed to
mention what the reality of the ‘movie’ file naming was.
So that mystery is OVER.
The photo on P23 of the SAIR is from Christopher’s smartphone ( which
we also didn’t know about ) and it is, in fact, hard-time stamped at 3:50.
So the SAIR caption and time of 3:50 on that photo on page 23 is CORRECT.
Nobody ‘dialed back’ the time on it. That’s exactly when Christopher took it.
>> calvin also wrote…
>> IF that is the case, image 0885, 0886 and 0887 from Mackenzie
>> camera do not fit in with the times. Remember this ongoing discussion?
Yep. Sure do.
Looking at that now ( since we can FINALLY see/analyze Christopher’s
smartphone photos ).
More on that later… I just didn’t want you to think I missed your post.
Also…
KUDOS again on ‘seeing’ Robert Caldwell’s Garmin GPS unit on his shoulder.
Funny how you can stare and stare at something… and suddenly find
something in a photo you’ve never seen before. Diligence counts!
Discovering Caldwell’s Garmin GPS unit, even at this point, is a BIG DEAL.
I checked ALL the deployment site photos that have been made public and it
doesn’t appear to be just ‘lying on the ground’ anywhere like Christopher’s
Canon Powershot clearly was.
It was either actually picked up by the YCSO detectives when they arrived at
sunrise the next morning ( but never, ever mentioned by them or entered into
evidence? )… OR… it was GONE by the time the YCSO police ever even
got there.
I don’t know which of those two scenarios is more disturbing.
It was attached directly ( and firmly ) to Robert’s right pack strap.
If he had to drop his pack and deploy as fast as I think he did…
then it would have still been right there wherever he dropped his pack.
It is not possible for it to have ‘disintegrated’.
Is it possible that Caldwell never got his pack fully off… and the straps
( and what was attached to them like the GPS unit? ) just went into
the shelter with him… which would then mean the GPS unit travelled
in his body bag along with him to the Medical Examiner’s office because
it was still ( somehow ) ATTACHED to him?
I don’t know.
All I know is that you really could not ‘miss’ this thing.
SOMEONE saw it… and knows what happened to it.
I “identified” Radio 13 as being Caldwell’s radio, because the closest body (I think) is Caldwell’s. It’s in a pile of stuff I think might be a pack. It’s on the “outside” of the Deployment area.
And now I’m going back to bed. I woke up way too early, kept trying to figure out Joy’s Mystery Man, but still can’t do it without something to sync the photos to in more real time. Which I still don’t have.
It’s to hard to see, and there’s no “photo enhancement software” out there that will remove the pixelation without removing detail, that I know of.
What I noticed though, is there’s no red helmet there, that I can see. And I think I should be able to see it. The light’s clear.
So I started thinking maybe it’s two GMHSs up there, doing something in relationship to the helicopter, which comes in an hour later, and picks up stuff from the upper peak of that ridge to the right. But the photo of the crew “walking in” is two hours and fifteen minutes later. So I still don’t get it.
By the way it’s file number 134.
Could be Helitack with the Helicopter unloading maybe pumps or pumpkin filling. Just a thought.
Thx. That’s what I was thinking but I didn’t know enough about this particular piece of the operations to say that.
Also it looks like they have back-packs on. Does Helitack wear backpacks?
Marti… thanks for the picture reference.
I believe I just found Caldwell’s Garmin Oregon 450 GPS
unit right there in that photo… just buried in the dirt
up near the top of the photo.
See longer post ( and details ) just below.
Reply to Bob Powers post on January 19, 2014 at 1:05 pm
>> Mr. Powers said…
>> I would say the (cell) number shown for Eric ( on the public NIHC site )
>> is a PFD assigned cell phone since it is public.
I would tend to agree. I can’t really imagine Eric Marsh allowing his own
personal cell phone number to be published PUBLICLY in multiple places
at the NIHC websites.
There is, in fact a PUBLIC website that allows you to do ‘reverse-lookups’
on cell-phone numbers. It is provided by a PUBLIC company called
‘PrivacyStar’ that makes spam-blocker software for cell phones.
Here is the exact link for the PUBLIC PrivacyStar page that does a
‘reverse lookup’ on Eric Marsh’s published cell phone number…
http://www.privacystar.com/lookup/928-237-0508
Clicking on “Owner’s Name” on that PUBLIC results page
only produces the following…
Name: Cell Phone PRESCOTT, AZ (No name associated)
Total Block Count by Privacy Star App Users: 0
Total Complaint Count by Privacy Star App Users: 0
All that means is that it is, in fact, a cell phone registered to someone
in Prescott, Arizona, with no specific NAME being reported by the
carrier, and that PrivacyStar users have registered no ‘spam’
complaints or ‘block this number’ requests against this cell number.
So that doesn’t mean it isn’t just a PFD registered ‘generic’ number,
but it doesn’t mean it isn’t either.
It it really was just Eric’s personal phone… the odds are actually high that
the PrivacyStar site that it WOULD have listed his name in those
search results. The fact that it didn’t would tend to be more proof
( in my opinion ) that this number really is just registered as a ‘generic’
number and is paid for by the Prescott Fire Department.
More to come on this…
“The radio communications, although muffled and difficult to make out, can be heard in the background on several audio/video recordings of pilot radio transmissions during the fire – radio communications that were publicly released in December by the Arizona State Forestry Division.”
Where are these “several audio/video recordings of pilot radio transmissions…”
I haven’t seen them. Mr. Dougherty. do you have them?
This is absolutely stunning.
I’ve been somewhat in shock before this, while working on this. But right now I think I’m REALLY in shock.
Marti… Elizabeth reported hearing these kinds of things in the
background of those ‘videos’ that the airplane guys were
apparently filming that afternoon for their own purposes. They
were doing their own ‘study of retardant drops’, or something.
Elizabeth reported hearing this ‘Musser calling Marsh’ transmission
on those air tapes.
I don’t know if these ‘air tapes’ have ever been posted publicly.
I imagine they will be… if they really do contain captured radio
transmissions as important as the ones being reported.
The scenario being described now almost raises MORE
questions than it answers.
Example: If Marsh ( and some sawyers ) were really all the
way at the ranch… and THEY had time to run due west to
Steed and the crew ( and end up dying with them )…
…then that automatically means Steed and the crew had the
same amount of time to just run due EAST and get safely
to the ranch. End of story. No one dies that day.
If Marsh was at the Boulder Springs Ranch and had been enroute since 3:52 where was the Marsh – Frisby face-to-face supposed to take place at?
Also what does Marsh by “where we are going to jump out at”? Like he’s going to surprise the rest of the crew?
I do have to say I looked at the photo from 3:52 in the Courier and it certainly does look like a couple of sawyers are heading down. You could say they were arriving, but it looks like they were continuing to go down.
If this is in fact true, someone knew this and did not tell the SAIT (why – seems unlikely) or the SAIT just deliberately chose to rewrite history, or more bluntly, they lied. I suppose they might have missed these conversations on the recordings they had, but the person on the other end of them knew what was said.
Would be nice to hear these recordings to see if what is reported seems correct. But to be honest, after the “move faster” video was found, the SAIR became essentially nonoperative. After all, someone knew about that too and either failed to disclose it or the SAIT buried it.
Yes, mike… lots of ‘new’ questions to answer about
what is being reported by Wildfire today.
You just hit on a few important ones that would
‘not support’ their story.
It’s also a fact that some of those ‘sawyers’ seen
‘moving out’ from the 3:52 location are ALSO
seen again just resting in the 4:02 MacKenzie
video. They didn’t go far.
Example: Ashcraft is seen with his saw ‘slung’
for hike in one of the 3:52 photos… but there he
is right there with his saw ‘unslung’ again at
4:02… just to the right of Steed in the first
MacKenzie video. Ashcraft is the one leaning on
his saw who laughs in agreement at the sarcastic
remark made by ( Misner? ) right after Eric says
“I could just feel it… ya know”.
It seems the ‘key’ to the whole ‘new scenario’ of
Marsh having ‘scouted ahead’ all the way to
the Boulder Springs Ranch is just based on
someone ( Maclean? Holly? ) thinking they hear
Marsh say…
” Nah I’m at the house where we’re gonna
jump out at.”
Well… what if what he really said was more like…
“Nah I’m here at the PLACE where we gonna
jump OFF at”.
Maybe Marsh was really ‘ahead’ of them.
All we know so far ( MacKenzie videos ) is
that he was not WITH them.
What if Marsh simply went on ahead down
the two-track… and he was simply now standing
at the spot where they were going to ‘jump off
the two-track’ and drop into the canyon?
That changes the thinking about whether Marsh
was ‘ahead’ or ‘behind’ them prior to 4:20… but
it doesn’t put him all the way at the ranch where
he ( and some sawyers? ) would have had to
run BACK west over 630 yards in 120 seconds
just to die with them.
So it all comes down to what someone thinks they
are hearing on those air-tapes.
Hopefully… those will be publicly available soon.
Are you sure that is Ashcraft in the video? I do not see him with a saw, the one next to him has one. In the 3:52 photo, Ashcraft is not wearing gloves and has glasses on – neither is true for the one in question. Obviously either of those things could be changed in an instant. When looking for Ashcraft, I usually look for tattoos and teeth. Cannot see whether there are tattoos or not, the teeth are there though.
Before he wrote books, John MacLean was a reporter. Reporters live and die by getting their facts right. If he reported what is heard, it really should be (better be) correct. To get this wrong would be a very big miss for him. The article in Wildfire Today does not say this is what it sounds like – the conversation is in quotes with no caution offered on whether it is accurate or not.
I don’t think I see Ashcraft in that video (but get REALLY confused about id-ing them.
What I’m seeing is a guy standing up, leaning on the saw’s sheath, and then as he leans over to spit, you can see the saw sheath lean over a bit with him.
Is that who we’re talking about?
I’ve been on again off again trying to figure out who the sawyers are for awhile. Two of them are photographically distinctive.
Dustan Deford, obviously with his big read beard.
Andrew Ashcroft, not only by his tattoos, but also that white bracelet on his left wrist. That white bracelet has its own story. I can’t remember what they wrote on them, but Andrew and his wife gave them to each other. She complained that he never wore his. So that morning, she was surprised to see that he had taken it and apparently wore it to the fire.
She figured she’d never see it again. So she was quite surprised when it was returned to her. She saw it as a sign that he was watching over her. That was a VERY BIG DEAL for her.
The two other sawyers, who are really hard to tell apart, are Travis Carter, 31, the Lead Saw Boss, and Travis Turbeyfill, 27. They look a lot alike, especially in these fire photos where everybody kinda looks alike under their helmets and with soot all over their faces. In regular photos Turbeyfill looks kinda almost like a ten years younger Carter. Plus, Carter is kinda bald, but you never see that with his helmet on.
So looking at that video, I really can’t tell if that’s Carter or Turbeyfill, but it’s obviously not Ashcraft or Deford (who obviously is in the video).
And I don’t see Ashcraft at all, but then I just may not know how to see him in this video.
In the photo of Aschcraft walking with his saw, the other either Carter/Turbyfill is the one walking beside him. I just really can’t tell. Because they look so much alike in photos. Especially with helmets and soot and dirt.
So we’d need an id from David or somebody that knew them, imo.
So here’s a logic/protocol/culture try. If, in fact, those two were leaving (and Ashcraft isn’t in the video) would it make sense that the one leaving would be Carter the Lead Saw Boss, or the not Lead Saw Boss Turbeyfill.
Which would be most likely to stay with Deford and the rest of the crew, or head out with Ashcraft to cut a trail thru the brush? Any thoughts?
Actually, after writing all that, and going to look at some more photos (I keep telling myself I’m DONE DIGGING), including one with a saw, I’m thinking it looks more like the ones I’ve just seen of Clayton Witted. The beard. And the long nose and more angular face.
So if that’s the case, the one walking out with Ashcraft is still either Carter or Turbyfill. So the question still applies. So it looks like we’ve got four saws and five sawyers.
Any more “seasoned” tips, thoughts, or guesses?
Plus, there’s another guy “walking out” with them too.
**
** ROBERT CALDWELL WAS WEARING A GARMIN
** OREGON 450 PORTABLE GPS UNIT ON JUNE 30, 2013
Reply to calvin post on January 19, 2014 at 7:12 pm
>> calvin wrote…
>>
>> Image 0854 and image 0876 from Mackenzie camera (one taken
>> at Doce and One at Yarnell) appear to show Robert Caldwell wearing
>> a Garmin GPS on his right shoulder strap.
>> Thoughts???
calvin… THANK YOU!
You are a steely-eyed rocket man!
YES!
It’s a Garmin Oregon 450 handheld GPS unit.
Enhancement on IMG_0876 of Caldwell from the Yarnell fire shows that it
actually says ‘Oregon 450’ so on the upper left corner of the unit in the
white ‘sideways’ writing on the front case of the unit.
The Garmin Oregon 450 handheld GPS unit is an older one. It was new
enough to not need that distinctive ‘wide antenna’ on the top like the
REALLY old GPS handhelds but is not obsolete and is no longer manufactured.
It was replaced a few yeas ago by the newer Garmin Colorado and Dakota series.
Here’s a direct link to a ‘side’ photo of the Garmin Oregon 450 showing that same,
unique ‘curved’ side striping/seam as seen on Caldwell’s unit…
https://buy.garmin.com/en-US/US/prod63349.html#gallery-dialog
** IMPORTANT! – WHERE IS THIS GPS UNIT NOW?
This Caldwell Oregon 450 GPS unit is NOT listed in any official evidence
document nor has it ever been mentioned until now. ( Thanks again to calvin! ).
Since this GPS unit is ALSO seen being worn by Captain Jesse Steed at
the Doce fire ( see other MacKenzie photo details below )… then it’s possible
this GPS unit is just like Marsh’s cellphone. It might have simply been
‘Propterty of the Prescott Fire Department’ and ( just like Marsh’s cellphone ),
when they might have ‘found it’ at the deployment site, PFD found no reason
to let either the YCSO police or the SAIT investigators know about it.
The Prescott Fire Department may have just considered it ‘their personal property’
and so they were able to keep it from ever entering the official ‘chain of evidence’.
Even if it did NOT belong to PFD… they may have treated it like they did
Christopher’s Canon Powershot camera and simply found a roundabout way
to return it to Robert Caldwell’s family without it ever entering the hands of
any investigators.
It’s important to establish the ‘chain of possession’ on this Garmin Oregon 450
GPS unit now that we now Robert Caldwell was WEARING it that day.
If found… it most probably will have EXACT TIMES for every single place
Caldwell and GM traveled that day as well as exact GPS coordinates.
The LOGS on this device area always recording data when it’s turned on.
** Christopher MacKenzie photos that all show this Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit…
IMG_0876 – From the Yarnell Fire – 10:45:37 AM, June 30, 2013
This is the picture taken at 10:45 AM that morning in Yarnell where
Rober Caldwell is posing for Christopher MacKenzie with the ‘lit torch’
in his hand. The Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit is clearly seen attached
to the upper end of his right front pack strap up near his shoulder.
This is the picture that, if you download the original high-res version and
enhance it some more… shows clearly the ‘Oregon 450’ writing in white
letters ( sideways ) on the upper end of the face of the GPS unit.
Metadata ( partial )
Camera: Canon PowerShot SD1400 IS
Lens: 5 – 20 mm – Shot at 13 mm (shot wide open)
Exposure: Auto exposure, 1/251 sec, f/4.5, ISO 80
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Focus: Single, Face Detect, with a depth of field of from 2.51 m to infinity.
AF Area Mode: Multi-point AF or AI AF
Date: June 30, 2013 – 10:45:37 AM
File: 3,240 × 4,320 JPEG (14.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 97%
IMG_0854 – From Doce Fire
Caldwell is ‘tying his boot’ but the Oregon 450 GPS unit is clearly seen there
( and lit well by the sun ) between his head/chin and his knee and attached to
his right front pack strap.
In this picture, we are looking at the LEFT side of the Oregon 450 unit strapped
to Caldwell’s right front pack strap.
Notice the unique ‘curved’ striping/seam on the side of the GPS unit and the
location of the ‘button’ in one of the ‘curves’ near the top of the unit. That is
unique to the Garmin Oregon 450 GPS device.
See link above for a photo of this unique ‘curved’ striping/seam.
We can also clearly see the big ‘clip’ on the back of the GPS unit that is holding
it to his pack strap. Again… that ‘clip’ is unique to the Garmin Oregon 450.
IMG_0874 – From Doce Fire
Caldwell and Steed in the same photo.
Caldwell now appears to just have the ‘microphone extender’ for his Bendix in
the same location on his right front pack strap where he normally wears the
Oregon 450 GPS unit… but now Jesse Steed seems to have the (same?)
Oregon 450 GPS in the same place Caldwell usually wears it. His right front
pack strap.
Steed is definitely wearing a Garmin GPS Oregon 450 ( you can tell from the
shape and the button on the top curve of the device )… but whether this is the
exact same Garmin Oregon 450 unit that we see Caldwell wearing in other
photos is not certain. Maybe Steed has his own Oregon 450 and was ALSO
wearing his in Yarnell on June 30. If so… where is Jesse Steed’s Oregon 450?
IMG_0875 – From Doce Fire
Caldwell and Steed in the same photo.
Same as IMG_0874. Caldwell has the extended microphone on his right front
pack strap and it’s Steed who has the Oregon 450 GPS unit on his right front
pack strap.
This time… we can see the top of the rounded-edge GPS unit and there appears
to what might be mistaken for a piece of tape across the curved top of the unit
but that’s actually just what the top ‘button’ on the Garmin Oregon series looks
like. It’s a ‘curved button’ embedded into the top curve of the unit.
IMG_0873 – From Doce Fire
Caldwell and Steed in the same photo.
Steed appears to still have the GPS unit on his right front pack strap but
Caldwell is blocking the full view of it in this photo.
** Official GARMIN Oregon 450 Product Information…
Garmin
Oregon 450
Part Number: 010-00697-40
$329.99 USD
Rugged Touchscreen Navigation
– 3″ sunlight-readable touchscreen display.
– Worldwide basemap with shaded relief.
– 3-axis compass with accelerometer and barometric altimeter sensors.
– microSD™ card slot.
Explore More
Oregon 450 comes with a built-in worldwide basemap with shaded
contours. Simply touch the color screen to navigate. Its digital
elevation maps show you shaded contours at higher zoom levels,
giving you a big picture of the surrounding terrain.
Get Your Bearings
Oregon 450 has a built-in 3-axis tilt-compensated electronic compass,
which shows your heading even when you’re standing still, without
holding it level. Its barometric altimeter tracks changes in pressure to
pinpoint your precise altitude, and you can even use it to plot barometric
pressure over time, which can help you keep an eye on changing weather
conditions. See changes in your elevation ahead of you and where you’ve
been with enhanced track navigation. With its high-sensitivity,
WAAS-enabled GPS receiver and HotFix® satellite prediction,
Oregon 450 locates your position quickly and precisely and maintains
its GPS location even in heavy cover and DEEP CANYONS.
Share Wirelessly
With Oregon 450 you can share your waypoints, tracks, routes and
geocaches wirelessly with other compatible Oregon, Colorado and
Dakota devices. Send your favorite hike to your friend to enjoy or the
location of a cache to find. Just touch “send” to transfer your information.
Find Fun
Oregon 450 supports OpenCaching.com GPX files for downloading geocaches
and details straight to your unit. By going paperless, you’re not only helping
the environment but also improving efficiency. Oregon stores and displays
key information, including location, terrain, difficulty, hints and descriptions,
which means no more manually entering coordinates and paper print outs!
Simply upload the GPX file to your unit and start hunting for caches. Show
off photos of your excursions with Oregon’s picture viewer. Slim and lightweight,
Oregon is the perfect companion for all your outdoor pursuits.
Plan Your Next Trip
Take charge of your next adventure with BaseCamp™, software that lets you
view and organize maps, waypoints, routes, and tracks. This free trip-planning
software even allows you to create Garmin Adventures that you can share
with friends, family or fellow explorers. BaseCamp displays topographic
map data in 2-D or 3-D on your computer screen, including contour lines
and elevation profiles. It also can transfer an unlimited amount of satellite
images to your device when paired with a BirdsEye Satellite Imagery
subscription.
Garmin Oregon 450 Technical Specs…
Physical & Performance:
Unit dimensions: WxHxD 2.3″ x 4.5″ x 1.4″ (5.8 x 11.4 x 3.5 cm)
Display size: WxH 1.53″W x 2.55″H (3.8 x 6.3 cm); 3″ diag (7.6 cm)
Display resolution: WxH 240 x 400 pixels
Display type: Transflective color TFT touchscreen
Weight: 6.8 oz (192.7 g) with batteries
Battery: 2 AA batteries (not included); NiMH or Lithium recommended
Battery life: 16 hours
Waterproof : Yes (IPX7)
Floats: No
High-sensitivity receiver: Yes
Interface: High-speed USB and NMEA 0183 compatible
Maps & Memory:
Basemap: Yes
Preloaded maps: No
Ability to add maps: Yes
Built-in memory: 850 MB
Accepts data cards: microSD™ card (not included)
Waypoints/favorites/locations: 2000
Routes: 200
Track log: 10,000 points, 200 saved tracks
Features & Benefits:
Automatic routing (turn by turn routing on roads): Yes (with optional mapping for detailed roads)
Electronic compass: Yes (tilt-compensated 3-axis)
Touchscreen: Yes
Barometric altimeter: Yes
Camera: No
Geocaching-friendly: Yes (Paperless)
Custom maps compatible: Yes
Photo navigation (navigate to geotagged photos): Yes
Hunt/fish calendar: Yes
Sun and moon information: Yes
Tide tables: Yes
Area calculation: Yes
Custom POIs (ability to add additional points of interest): Yes
Unit-to-unit transfer (shares data wirelessly with similar units): Yes
Picture viewer: Yes
Garmin Connect(TM) compatible (online community where you
analyze, categorize and share data): Yes
AND HOLY MALOLY HAS ANYBODY SEEN THIS YET????????
Sonny just emailed me this. OMG
From Wildfire Today, posted today:
Discoveries in Yarnell Hill Fire recordings provide new information about location of Eric Marsh
***Was Eric Marsh at the Ranch When the Hotshots Headed Down the Hill?***
By Holly Neill and John N. Maclean
http://wildfiretoday.com/2014/01/19/discoveries-in-yarnell-hill-fire-recordings-provide-new-information-about-location-of-eric-marsh/
“A series of previously undisclosed radio transmissions by Eric Marsh, superintendent of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, show that he communicated regularly with supervisors about his crew’s position”
“Contrary to assertions in the Serious Accident Investigation Report and elsewhere, and just minutes before the crew was entrapped, Marsh told incident supervisors “I’m at the house” and that his crew was “coming down from the heel of the fire.”
“The radio communications, although muffled and difficult to make out, can be heard in the background on several audio/video recordings of pilot radio transmissions during the fire – radio communications that were publicly released in December by the Arizona State Forestry Division.”
“Voice 1: Division Alpha, what’s your status right now?
Marsh: Ah the guys, ah Granite, is making their way down the escape route from this morning. It’s south, mid-slope, cut vertical.”
Voice 2: “Copy, working their way down into the structures.”
Voice 1: “ … on the escape route with Granite Mountain right now?”
Marsh: “Nah I’m at the house where we’re gonna jump out at.””
“Voice 1: Division Alpha, what’s your status right now?
Marsh: Ah the guys, ah Granite, is making their way down the escape route from this morning. It’s south, mid-slope, cut vertical.”
Voice 2: “Copy, working their way down into the structures.”
Voice 1: “ … on the escape route with Granite Mountain right now?”
Marsh: “Nah I’m at the house where we’re gonna jump out at.””
This whole thing just keeps getting weirder and weirder and then exponentially weirder.
I’m glad I have on a nice soft Pandora Radio playllist right now.
I am just totally dumbfoundedly flabergasted. And I have absolutely no idea, from this article, what/where these videos are.
We’ve known since Elizabeth first told us here that there are/were
radio communications captured in the background of these
‘videos’ being made that day by the air guys. She even reported
that first “Musser calling Marsh” transmission in the background.
It would not surprise me at all if the rest of these ‘conversations’
being reported by author John Maclean are, in fact, also right
there in those air videos.
The supposition in the article (now) is that Marsh took a group
of sawyers with him circa 4:45 PM to ‘improve the route’ to
the ranch ( but still through the fuel-filled box canyon ).
The article also ‘supposes’ that Marsh ( and the sawyers? )
ended up all the way at the Boulder Springs Ranch and
there they were… circa 4:30… just waiting for the rest of GM
to ‘catch up’ and arrive at the ranch.
It’s possible ( Geez… if we haven’t learned anything by now
studying this thing… ANYTHING is possible ).
Some other ‘mysteries’ would actually be explained by this.
1) This DOES explain the roll of pink tape found by Tex Gilligan
at the top of the ridge. Marsh MAY have been ‘marking the
trail’ for GM if he was, indeed, AHEAD of them that day.
2) This could also better explain the mysterious ( calm )
transmission from Marsh about “That’s where we want retardant”
at 1637, 120 seconds before Steed’s first MAYDAY. If Marsh
really WAS already at the Boulder Springs Ranch, in that
clearing, then maybe he really did see that ‘line up flight’ of
ASM2’s and really was in a position to confirm that’s where a
drop should take place at that time.
My big question would then, of course, be… how in the hell did
Marsh and the sawyers he had with them also end up dying
at the deployment site?
The center of the deployment site was 638.33 yards (1,915 feet)
due west of the very outer perimeter of the Boulder Springs
Ranch.
If Marsh really wasn’t aware they were in any danger until he,
himself, heard Steed’s first MAYDAY circa 1639… yet he
( and others? ) still had time to RUN the 638 yards WEST to
where they were ( and then to die with them )…
…that that automatically means that even at 1639, when Steed
sent out they MAYDAY… Steed and the crew, themselves also
had that same ‘plenty of time’ to HAUL ASS due EAST towards
the ranch and make it all the way there in time.
It’s pretty much a given now that at least 2 saws can also
be heard already running right next to Steed when he even
makes his first MAYDAY call at 1639. That’s why Steed
is actually YELLING on that call.
If that is also true… and it means they had already spent some
time finding and getting to work on the deployment site BEFORE
Steed even sent out the MAYDAY… then that just adds even
lots MORE time to the time they needed to just take off running
due EAST and make it all the way to the ranch safely.
Either way this ends up going down ( Marsh straggling behind
them or Marsh already at the ranch and then running BACK
to them over 638 yards in 120 seconds )…
…something is still rotten in the kingdom of Denmark, here.
More to come on this… I’m sure.
Man, no kidding. This, to me, is a real frut-basket upset.
Thanks for being able to be analytical about this when I am just totally speechless.
It seems the ‘key’ to the whole ‘new scenario’ of
Marsh having ‘scouted ahead’ all the way to
the Boulder Springs Ranch is just based on
someone ( Maclean? Holly? ) thinking they hear
Marsh say…
” Nah I’m at the house where we’re gonna
jump out at.”
Well… what if what he really said was more like…
“Nah I’m here at the PLACE where we gonna
jump OFF at”.
What if Marsh simply went on ahead down
the two-track… and he was simply now standing
at the spot where they were going to ‘jump off
the two-track’ and drop into the canyon?
That changes the thinking about whether Marsh
was ‘ahead’ or ‘behind’ them prior to 4:20… but
it doesn’t put him all the way at the ranch where
he ( and some sawyers? ) would have had to
run BACK west over 630 yards in 120 seconds
just to die with them.
So it all comes down to what someone thinks
they have heard on some air-tapes that don’t
even seem to have been made public yet.
As we have seen/heard here ourselves already
with just the already-made-public stuff… hearing
every word on an accidentally captured ‘background’
transmissions is, indeed, a tricky thing.
The more ears the better.
She’s definitely basing her narrative about the sawyers going with him is based on Chris’ photo.
She comments there:
“Holly Neill on January 20, 2014 at 8:44 am said:
The reference to the MacKenzie photo is photo #0887 from the link that Bill posted to the Daily Courier website.”
Image 0854 and image 0876 from Mackenzie camera (one taken at Doce and One at Yarnell) appear to show Robert Caldwell wearing a Garmin GPS on his right shoulder strap.
Thoughts???
Calvin… you, sir, are a steely-eyed rocket man.
You are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
It’s a Garmin Oregon 450 handheld GPS unit.
( It says so right on the side of it with photo enhancement ).
See longer post below including tech specs on the Oregon 450.
RE Mystery Man photo
OK I need help here. I’m having WAY more trouble getting these photos correctly time-stamped. I just emailed Joy/Sonny and I’m also throwing it out to you big brains. This is eating up WAY more time than I have to feed it.
Here’s what I just wrote to Joy/Sonny:
“I’m having way more trouble than I thought I was gonna. Somethings not right. You said (or whatever, I looked at it, I think, but I can’t find it right now) that the camera said it was 1:55 AM (i.e. about 2AM to make things easier) when the cellphone said it was 2:33 PM. Did I get that right?
If that’s correct, I figure I need to move the time stamp about 12 hours and 30 minutes forward.
But, when I take that photo of Mystery Man, which says 3:29 AM and move it forward 12 and a half hours, it ends up at about 4 PM. Which can’t possibly be right.”
Any ideas among you alls?
If so, thanks bunches in advance!
PS I do think it has something to do with the helicopter. I may as well go ahead and say what I found with relative timing, not real timing.
Approximately one hour after Mystery Man was photographed with Eric at the top of a ridge (and I still haven’t had time to zoom way in and enhance and try to see MM in more detail), the yellow helicopter “N14HX” was photographed. About 20 minutes later the heli is photographed with a line hanging from it. A minute later it’s shot twice coming close into the ridgetop. A minute later it’s shot flying high with two things hanging down. A minute later Joy zooms way in so you can see the two things hanging down (which I don’t know what they are, but some of you all may).
15 minutes later, Joy photographs Eric walking down in the brush.
So that’s the relative story.
I also haven’t had time to compare the ridgetop with MM and the ridgetop with the helicopter. And I’m running out of time.
So, looks like I was looking at a wrong photo on that or something. We’re conversing now about another photo that could, with some of their help, be more useful for time-stamping this. Keep posted
That’s about right. I subtracted 1:55 from 14:33 and got 12:38.
So 12:38 is the amount of time you need to add to the camera time stamp. Or just 38 minutes, and change the AM/PM designator.
That would make a 3:29 am stamp, a picture taken at 16:07 (4:07 pm). Not sure what to make of that, myself. I thought Sonny and Joy were off the ridge by then.
we were OFF THE RIDGE by then, Sitta.
**
** THE NIHC LISTS PUBLIC CELL PHONE NUMBERS FOR
** ALMOST ALL HOTSHOT CREW STAFF… INCLUDING ERIC MARSH
Not only is/was the NIHC listing a cell phone number of (928) 237-0508 for
Eric Marsh as his primary contact number on their PUBLIC NIHC contact list…
…the NIHC also maintains another PUBLIC document that has that same cell
phone number for Marsh… as well as just about every other NIHC Hotshot
crew leader or boss.
It even has Brian Frisby’s cell phone number and the cell phone numbers
of other crew leaders that were in Yarnell that day like Globe Crew, etc.
THIS IS A PUBLIC DOCUMENT!
No secrets here. Anyone can just ‘Google’ it.
If anyone on this list doesn’t want these cell phone numbers being
published then you need to contact the National Interagency Hotshot Crew
organization.
Here it is…
http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/dispatch_logistics/dispatch/mobguide_non_secure/pdf_files/2013/8_Chapter_60_2013.pdf
Chapter 60
Crews, Overhead, and Specialty Positions
Position Code Listing of 1 Overhead Positions
For a complete list of all IQCS recognized position codes,
refer to the following Web site ( website address is listed )
Crews
Type I/Interagency Hotshot Crews
—————————————————————————————-
Crew Name, Unit, Superintendent, Cell Phone Number, Home Base
—————————————————————————————-
Black Mesa AZ-ASF Frank Auza (928) 245-8652 Overgaard, AZ 7
Blue Ridge AZ-COF Brian Frisby (928) 606-1026 Happy Jack, AZ 8
Carson NM-CAF Rich Sack (575) 741-0522 Taos, NM 9
Flagstaff AZ-COF Bill Kuche (928) 606-2438 Flagstaff, AZ 10
Fort Apache AZ-FTA Brian Quintero (928) 205-9459 Whiteriver, AZ 11
Geronimo AZ-SCA Julius Hostetler (928) 961-1451 San Carlos, AZ 12
Gila NM-GNF Dewey Rebbe (575) 574-0468 Reserve, NM 13
Globe AZ-TNF Mark Babieracki (970) 946-4800 Globe, AZ 14
Granite Mountain AZ-AZS Eric Marsh (928) 237-0508 Prescott, AZ 15
Ironwood AZ-AZS Greg Smith (520) 343-0718 Tucson, AZ 16
Mormon Lake AZ-COF Matt Caouette (928) 607-4166 Flagstaff, AZ 17
Mt. Taylor NM-CIF Cathleen Lowe (505) 401-1471 Grants, NM 18
Navajo AZ-NAA Johnson Benallie (928) 205-9989 Fort Defiance, AZ 19
Payson AZ-TNF Mike Schinstock (928) 595-0320 Payson, AZ 20
Pleasant Valley AZ-TNF Patrick Moore (602) 509-8021 Goldfield, AZ 21
Prescott AZ-PNF Darin Fisher (928) 713-1307 Prescott, AZ 22
Sacramento NM-LNF Matt Barone (575) 921-9266 Cloudcroft, NM 23
Santa Fe NM-SNF David Simpson (505) 231-4831 Santa Fe, NM 24
Silver City NM-GNF Pete Valenzuela (575) 313-2114 Silver City, NM 25
Smokey Bear NM-LNF Rich Dolphin (575) 937-4875 Ruidoso, NM 26
Zuni NM-ZUA Myron Sheche (505) 870-8892 Zuni, NM
etc…
etc…
Thx for this both of you. I’m probably not going to pursue it much more any time soon, because I woke up to a main water line break this morning and I’m trying to figure out the MM in Joy’s photo.
I have a question that, given everything else that’s going on in my life right now, my brain just isn’t answering and I think you can give me a quick and dirty faster that I can figure it out.
Joy’s cellphone says it’s 2:33 in the afternoon at the same time her camera says it’s 1:55 in the morning. How many hours and minutes is her camera off? Once I get that I can just plug it in and change the timestamps on her camera photos and sync it all.
BTW Her photos are all on JD’s dropbox now. So they can be downloaded. Much bigger and w/metadata,which I couldn’t do off of her Google + collection.
I think the helicopter clue may be key here, so thx WTKTT! I’ve got the relative times for the pix and I’m ready to write it up, but I want to get the right time stamps into it first.
Actually, I may have just answered my own question down below. Back to the emails to see if she sent me that picture or just told me about it.
And PS for Calvin. This is why I keep saying cellphones have accurate timestamps. Camera’s can easily be anywhere from as wildly off as Joy’s was, or somewhat off as Chris’s was. If you can somehow sync a camera photo to a cellphone photo, that will tell you which way and how far you need to go. Wedding photographers do that all the time when they forget to sync their who knows how many cameras–on which they’ll take thousands of photos–ahead of time. They’ll take a photo of the cellphone, and voila! They just plug that time into that pic and it and sync the rest in lightroom and that gets everything all nice and tidy really quick. That’s essentially what Joy did, thankfully!
Thanks Marti. I am inclined to believe the cell timestamp over the camera timestamp. From my first comments discussing the YHF, the images from Mackenzie camera 0885, 0886, and 0887 have seemed out of place to me.