Please begin Chapter IX of the Yarnell Hill Fire discussion here. Once again, do not include more than one link in your comment in order to avoid the spam folder. Thank you, John
Chapter I, Chapter II, Chapter II supplement, Chapter III, Chapter IV, Chapter V, Chapter VI, Chapter VII and Chapter VIII.
© Copyright 2014 John Dougherty, All rights Reserved. Written For: Investigative MEDIA
Joy and I attended the Yarnell Fire Board Group and are just back. It seems they were more intent on enforcing something that can not be legally enforced concerning state trespass laws than they are creating defensable space, looking at concerns regarding the loss of 40 lives since the fire and finding out what the circumstances really were that led up to the 19 GMHS deaths.
A number of Joy’s friends showed up to witness in case we got arrested–it did not happen. Even her husband was there to make bond if needed. The young fire chief stated he was only trying to comply with orders from upstairs, but he did not know that Joy had photographed many people that were on those state lands without legal passes, therefore breaking the law. Ignorance of the law is no excuse these days eventhough there are 64000 and more on the books. But boys enforcing the law need to get them all down so they can deliver the facts to us hikers. Well it turns out Joy educated many of those that she had in the photo when they later wanted to hike with us–almost to a person they did not know that they had to have a pass to walk on their own public lands. Yes a $15 senior pass or $20 regular pass will get you on with us–we want to keep you out of jail and the exorbitant fine for that awful crime of walking on state or federal lands without giving the mordida (bite) as they call it in Mexico. Some think it is akin to a robber holding a gun on you so you can walk out there. The state will do that for you as well if you are not happy with their fee.
I did get in a thing about the 40 dying and so first did Joy. I was able to let the board know that 83%of that LC95A slurry fire retardant is ammonia nitrate that gives off a lung tissue killing gas and that 8% is chemicals that we have yet to know due to trade secret. I suggested that since they should have the clout to gain this information, and seeing that they are a fire board concerned with fire things including firemen’s health they ought to find out. Also factor in 40 deaths now since the fire in this little community, would it not be a good idea to contact EPA or the health bureaus to investigate the possible escalation in deaths to older citizens. One lady was very interested on the board and did write this down. Maybe it will help somebody–seeing the 6 page information report on LC95A states it has never been tested on animals or humans as to its effect on health. They just assume it is good stuff and the gasses and chemicals emitted by the drops are benign. Sounds like the same shit we heard when i was a uranium miner–low grade uranium does no harm–yet you can get a consolation prize for being a uranium miner for over 4 quarters of a hundred and fifity grand. It takes one of specific cancers, COPD, and other diseases to get it and up to ten years for approval so hopefully you can hang on against the disease until you get it. Most haven’t and those old miners i knew were mostly gone long ago from one cancer or another. Maybe these firemen need to know now what they breath, so they can have some chance of future retribution–if indeed as i belive they are–breathing dangerous chemicals.
Now back to the fire–Joy did post some more new photos a few days ago. What I saw looked like would be more help in resolving things.
The Discovery Channel guy did contact Joy just before we left–wanted her to report back on how it went at the fire board. Well I did not see much excitement there, but can bet they will lay off Joy after she laid out about six pages of maps, regulations and facts about how the law must be followed not only by us but by those that exercise the law as well.
It is amazing all this to me–I do admire you people here and how well you have been exposing these bumblers of the Yarnell fire.
I have to admit I did ask the FBI to step in and had presented a pretty good argument (at least in my own opinion) as to why they should. It took a long email to the Phoenix office–and one of the things i covered is the obvious cover up and omission of such things as that Bambi and Copter able to stop the fire or at least slow it for oncoming fire fighters that was told by the Honcho to stay put. Such things seem strange to me–also that a photo of two atv’s on the mountain right at the fire on Friday is in the hands of certain individuals–yet no investigator has ever bothered to contact those people with the photo or even ask who it is that has those photo’s.
Did Joy’s discovery of that bambi/copter photo and the fact that certain firemen on the job hear on radio that bosses told the copter pilots to stand down on Saturday morning piss someone off? Marti and Wants to Know the Truth dissected those photos as to what they were as well as time and date and location. The idea is that someone does not want the truth and nothing but the truth out and in my way of thinking only outside investigators will be able to get closure and satisfaction to the loved ones. There are lots of children out there without fathers now, mothers and dads without their sons. There are plenty of friends saddened by this tragedy So no matter how lightly those dissenters to outside investigators might be, this investigation will go on and no amount of harassment or intimidation will stop athose of us who whittle at the veil of whitewash we hve been fed.
John started Chapter X last night
Cool.
Packing my bags right now.
The direct ‘jump link’ to the new Chapter X ( TEN ) is as follows…
http://www.investigativemedia.com/yarnell-hill-fire-chapter-x/
**
** EXIF METADATA CONTAINED IN THE FILES RECEIVED BY INVESTIGATIVE MEDIA
The bad news: There are definitely TWO different video cameras involved but they both seem to be ‘older’ devices and there doesn’t seem to be any actual DEVICE information in the EXIF data that would specifically identify them.
The good news: There is ENOUGH data there to figure it out what devices they really were.
Also some more bad news… the first three videos have some TIMESTAMP information in them… but the more important ‘Helmet Cam’ videos do NOT.
** THE FIRST THREE VIDEOS
The following piece of EXIF data actually dates the camera.
This version C.S0050-0 V1.0 of the 3GP video format dates back to 2003…
Major Brand: 3GPP2 Media (.3G2) compliant with 3GPP2 C.S0050-0 V1.0
The following field seems to verify the AGE of this device as circa 2003 since it ONLY lists a 3GPP ‘compatibility’ mode with the older V1.0 version. If it was a more modern 3GPP capable device it would be listing additional ‘Compatible Brands’ like ‘3g2b’ and ‘3g2c’. ( in addition to the early 3g2a version )…
Compatible Brands: 3g2a
There is a ‘Current Time’ data field in this version of 3GPP, but as you well see below… either this device wasn’t updating it or that time-stamping feature for videos had been turned OFF.
** FILENAMES TAMPERED WITH?
Something really strange is going on with the ‘Media Create Dates’ versus the filenames that are appearing for these 3 files.
Here are the actual ‘Media Create Date’ timestamps embedded in these files… and the length of time BETWEEN them…
‘Create Date’ field for 0630131532.3g2
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
‘Create Date’ field for 0630131533.3g2
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46 ( +66 seconds )
‘Create Date’ field for 0630131534.3g2
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07 ( +81 seconds )
This timestamp information does NOT match a possible device file naming sequence of…
0630131532.3g2
0630131533.3g2
0630131534.3g2
According to the device clock… it was 22:32:34 when the first video was ‘created’ ( 10:32:34 PM ).
We certainly know it wasn’t 10 PM in the evening… but even then the ‘minute sequence’ is off from reality.
The ‘minute value’ for the first two files matches ( 32 and 33 )… but according to the device itself the third filename should have had a ’35’ minute value instead of ’34’.
It’s late in the evening here.
More about all this later.
Here are some EXIF data ‘dumps’ from the files in the Dropbox…
** EXIF metadata contained in 0630131532.3g2
File Name: 0630131532.3g2
File Type: 3G2
MIME Type: video/3gpp2
Major Brand: 3GPP2 Media (.3G2) compliant with 3GPP2 C.S0050-0 V1.0
Minor Version: 0.0.0
Compatible Brands: 3g2a
Movie Data Size: 407900
Movie Data Offset: 28
Movie Header Version: 0
Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Time Scale: 1000
Duration: 29.80 s
Preferred Rate: 1
Preferred Volume: 100.00%
Preview Time: 0 s
Preview Duration: 0 s
Poster Time: 0 s
Selection Time: 0 s
Selection Duration: 0 s
Current Time: 0 s
Next Track ID: 3
Track Header Version: 0
Track Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Track Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Track ID: 1
Track Duration: 29.80 s
Track Layer: 0
Track Volume: 0.00%
Image Width: 176
Image Height: 144
Graphics Mode: srcCopy
Op Color: 0 0 0
Compressor ID: mp4v
Source Image Width: 176
Source Image Height: 144
X Resolution: 72
Y Resolution: 72
Bit Depth: 24
Video Frame Rate: 15
Matrix Structure: 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Media Header Version: 0
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Media Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:32:34
Media Time Scale: 8000
Media Duration: 29.80 s
Handler Type: Audio Track
Handler Description: soun
Balance: 0
Audio Format: mp4a
Audio Channels: 2
Audio Bits Per Sample: 16
Audio Sample Rate: 8000
Avg Bitrate: 110 kbps
Image Size: 176×144
Rotation: 0
** EXIF metadata contained in 0630131533.3g2
File Name: 0630131533.3g2
File Type: 3G2
MIME Type: video/3gpp2
Major Brand: 3GPP2 Media (.3G2) compliant with 3GPP2 C.S0050-0 V1.0
Minor Version: 0.0.0
Compatible Brands: 3g2a
Movie Data Size: 411029
Movie Data Offset: 28
Movie Header Version: 0
Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Time Scale: 1000
Duration: 29.92 s
Preferred Rate: 1
Preferred Volume: 100.00%
Preview Time: 0 s
Preview Duration: 0 s
Poster Time: 0 s
Selection Time: 0 s
Selection Duration: 0 s
Current Time: 0 s
Next Track ID: 3
Track Header Version: 0
Track Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Track Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Track ID: 1
Track Duration: 29.87 s
Track Layer: 0
Track Volume: 0.00%
Image Width: 176
Image Height: 144
Graphics Mode: srcCopy
Op Color: 0 0 0
Compressor ID: mp4v
Source Image Width: 176
Source Image Height: 144
X Resolution: 72
Y Resolution: 72
Bit Depth: 24
Video Frame Rate: 15
Matrix Structure: 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Media Header Version: 0
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Media Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:33:46
Media Time Scale: 8000
Media Duration: 29.92 s
Handler Type: Audio Track
Handler Description: soun
Balance: 0
Audio Format: mp4a
Audio Channels: 2
Audio Bits Per Sample: 16
Audio Sample Rate: 8000
Avg Bitrate: 110 kbps
Image Size: 176×144
Rotation: 0
** EXIF metadata contained in 0630131534.3g2
File Name: 0630131534.3g2
File Size: 400 kB
File Type: 3G2
MIME Type: video/3gpp2
Major Brand: 3GPP2 Media (.3G2) compliant with 3GPP2 C.S0050-0 V1.0
Minor Version: 0.0.0
Compatible Brands: 3g2a
Movie Data Size: 406487
Movie Data Offset: 28
Movie Header Version: 0
Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Time Scale: 1000
Duration: 29.73 s
Preferred Rate: 1
Preferred Volume: 100.00%
Preview Time: 0 s
Preview Duration: 0 s
Poster Time: 0 s
Selection Time: 0 s
Selection Duration: 0 s
Current Time: 0 s
Next Track ID: 3
Track Header Version: 0
Track Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Track Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Track ID: 1
Track Duration: 29.73 s
Track Layer: 0
Track Volume: 0.00%
Image Width: 176
Image Height: 144
Graphics Mode: srcCopy
Op Color: 0 0 0
Compressor ID: mp4v
Source Image Width: 176
Source Image Height: 144
X Resolution: 72
Y Resolution: 72
Bit Depth: 24
Video Frame Rate: 15
Matrix Structure: 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Media Header Version: 0
Media Create Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Media Modify Date: 2013:06:30 22:35:07
Media Time Scale: 8000
Media Duration: 29.72 s
Handler Type: Audio Track
Handler Description: soun
Balance: 0
Audio Format: mp4a
Audio Channels: 2
Audio Bits Per Sample: 16
Audio Sample Rate: 8000
Avg Bitrate: 109 kbps
Image Size: 176×144
Rotation: 0
** THE HELMET CAM VIDEOS ( The M2Uxxxxx.MPG files )
Now that we know the ACTUAL ( original ) file extension for the M2Uxxxxx files was .MPG ( and not .MP4 ) that pretty much proves Hulburd’s ‘Helmet Camera’ had to be some kind of SONY based device.
Perhaps an older Sony HandyCam or Sony MiniCam.
There really isn’t much information there on initial inspection… but there *might* be more.
Stay tuned.
** EXIF metadata contained in M2U00269.MPG
File Name: M2U00269.MPG
File Size: 14 MB
File Type: MPEG
MIME Type: video/mpeg
MPEG Audio Version: 1
Audio Layer: 1
Audio Bitrate: 160 kbps
Sample Rate: 44100
Channel Mode: Joint Stereo
Mode Extension: Bands 4-31
Copyright Flag: True
Original Media: True
Emphasis: CCIT J.17
Image Width: 720
Image Height: 480
Aspect Ratio: 16:9, 625 line, PAL
Frame Rate: 29.97 fps
Video Bitrate: 9.1 Mbps
Duration: 12.91 s (approx)
Image Size: 720×480
** EXIF metadata contained in M2U00268.MPG
File Name: M2U00268.MPG
File Size: 41 MB
File Type: MPEG
MIME Type: video/mpeg
MPEG Audio Version: 1
Audio Layer: 1
Audio Bitrate: 160 kbps
Sample Rate: 44100
Channel Mode: Joint Stereo
Mode Extension: Bands 4-31
Copyright Flag: True
Original Media: True
Emphasis: CCIT J.17
Image Width: 720
Image Height: 480
Aspect Ratio: 16:9, 625 line, PAL
Frame Rate: 29.97 fps
Video Bitrate: 9.1 Mbps
Duration: 0:00:36 (approx)
Image Size: 720×480
Hmmm
Maybe start here:
Sony – Cyber-Shot Shock+Waterproof Camera Orange+32GB+Helmet+Handlebar Mounts+Batt+Case+Flex Tripod+Acc Kit – Orange
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/sony-cyber-shot-shock-waterproof-camera-orange-32gb-helmet-handlebar-mounts-batt-case-flex-tripod-acc-kit-orange/1311290807.p?id=mp1311290807&skuId=1311290807
Their “action cams” don’t zoom.
But this one does. And it’s optical zoom. And Sony uses Carl Zeiss lenses. The very best. That would explain what I was seeing in the first M2U video.
But no remote. He would have had to operate this by hand.
Just looked at 69. It’s the same length as the YouTube version.
More videos have been uploaded now.
Thanks, JD!!
OK, back to bed. I just got up bcuz of a sneezing attack.
Thanks, WTKTT!
Hmmm.
That 2003 GP3 really is a stumper.
I thought GP3 was associated with GoPros. Guess not.
Correction It’s 3GP
Big learning curve for me here.
Maybe it IS a flip cellphone?
Marti digs back thru the cobwebs in her mind to try to even remember what her first cellphone was (it didn’t take pictures) after learning that 3GP didn’t start with GroPros, but with 3G networks.
2002
“Nokia 7650
This was the first Nokia set to feature a built-in camera and was featured in the movie Minority Report.”
From “THE EVOLUTION OF CELL PHONE DESIGN BETWEEN 1983-2009”
http://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2009/05/the-evolution-of-cell-phone-design-between-1983-2009/
OK Now I REALLY need to go back to bed.
So Aaron was, possibly, actually shooting with an antique cellphone?
(This, if in fact it is the case, in no way substantiates what our counselor said about how fire fighter crews use old cellphones because they can’t afford anything newer. ) I’ve seen WAY too many firefighter videos to believe that.)
Confession.
My Melita Drip Coffee Maker/Carafe is over 27 years old.
I wouldn’t even think of using anything else.
**
** What InvestigativeMEDIA actually received from the US Forestry Service
IM has just now posted a link to exact copies of what it actually received from the US Forestry Service in response to the original FOIA request for ‘Prescott National Forest’ employee video(s).
The new IM article about this is here…
InvestigativeMEDIA posts first set of Forest Service videos
November 17, 2014 By John Dougherty
http://www.investigativemedia.com/investigativemedia-posts-first-set-of-forest-service-videos/
The direct link to the online Dropbox that contains the 12 videos ( out of a total of 21 ) that have been uploaded so far is as follows…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ipv8to6ih7gmzbq/AAC82U3UuheEtc8GPHFn91vea?dl=0
The uploading is ongoing and not yet completed… but there are at least 12 complete videos already in the Dropbox… including the first THREE of the burnout operation up on Model Creek Road.
Thanks!
There’s a bunch more there now.
When I heard the statement who “knew” the men “the answers died with the 19″…it just stuck to me…
I say to anyone who thinks all the answers died with them.
PLAY GOD. PAY THE PRICE.
SOME of ‘the answers’ probably did… but certainly not ALL… as the United States Forestry Service, Arizona Forestry, and officials/employees of the City of Prescott would like us to believe.
Even just 9 days ago… the United States Forestry Service and Arizona Forestry proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that they have ALWAYS been ‘withholding’ crucial evidence about what really happened that day from both the families of the poor men who lost their lives AND from the people charged ( by law ) with officially investigating this tragic incident.
You have to wonder, then… what else is still being ‘withheld’… and what ‘answers’ lie ahead?
Recently Bob Powers used 2 words that struck me “STRICK CONFIDENCE” and when we began the hikes we explained ANYONE reaching out to us from June 30 2013 until January 2014 that anything they said to us would not be kept in strick confidence because I just did not want to juggle who said what and what not to say since we were bombarded by so many avenues from locals to firefighting/smokejumper community to investigators/media/radio/djs/authors/journalists to loved ones of the GMHS to total strangers to retired military/cia/federal folks to meteorologists to botanists to high up command current and retired of wildland fire community to fire wardens current and retired to state and city and county officials again current and retired so our list is very very lengthy of incoming communications. I have some information and I can only state that at this date but remember this date because when it comes out I just want everyone to know how God has guided this all and boy do I wish I can share even the tiniest detail yet all I can say it is in regards to who God shared to us without us even looking and how it is still amazes me how God’s time is slower than I would of thought on the topic of the YHF when there is still living beings that were on that fire and homeowners that if they just shared their accounts and footage…I finally learned to trust the One who knows all things and accept that some questions may never be answered. I just hope in this YHF; we witness from seed-time to HARVEST. I can share this week a local asked me HOW COME I never posted on here about the flair a homeowner saw at 4:35pm from the area of the Helm’s (THE BOX CANYON) and the homeowner did not know how come it was never mentioned in the SAIR and I explained it was a solo account said in front of other locals but to this date I have not yet heard another account so I never posted about it because I work on some how trailing back to source/footage. I will not say something on JD’s page unless it is what it is…I think of the children in all this and as they grow or currently old enough and read this that I am saying all I can for the fatherless. I know it is OFF TRACK but the whales do not have a voice but there are current strong activists saving the whales from poachers so I just am trying to keep checking every possible area we can and really I did not get local’s cd yet but did learn one is on vacation for 2 weeks with her daughter and my hopes is the Holidays does not envelop her time and have to wait for the new year. Yet it will cover the areas of Model Creek Road/Monica Mine and mountain top views. Also John last night at Barb’s now knows what we are looking for and he will get the word out. I passed out today so I am online to order some labs. I had a forehead blood gusher and I have no clue how long I was out. I am feeling woozy. Today they are having MEET THE ARTIST at the Yarnell Library with Chuck Tidey and his art. Surrounded by many folks are the MOVE ON JOY/LET THE FIRE AND MEN GO…you would think if a certain GMHS loved one had her hand in their ideas nowadays—either way Bob Powers is right. I did tell everyone if you tell me something let it be something I can repeat but I do know certain current firefighter community are not in fear of their career as much as they fear the change that may happen from them coming forward because it may not just affect their career but too many…I gotta go. Head hurts. Sonny is typing away and I printed my labs and ordering more so some time I hope to look more into this page yet I do SUPPORT a new chapter!
I happened to peruse the info on a GoPro package while in the store yesterday, and while that particular device will not zoom, it will go from wide view to narrow view, which under certain conditions could sort of mimic a zoom.
I took a quick look through some of the videos to see if I could find any zooming going on, and I didn’t see any in the places I looked. If any of you are familiar with the locations of any zooms, you might want to double check to make sure the camera wasn’t just going from wide to narrow, or vice versa.
Thanks! Good catch! Will look!
I DID look for zooming, and found it.
Will go back and look to see if it’s zooming or “shifting”
Just going from “wide” to “narrow” wouldn’t change the focal length or the appearance of that. Maybe it’s like a digital zoom where it crops the whole frame, which is what cellphones do. making it look like a zoom.
To make a cellphone really zoom, you have to get an additional lens. Making and selling those has been quite a cottage industry.
OK. I looked at M2U00261.
He’s definitely zoomng in and out. It’s a gradual thing, zooming in and out..
http://youtu.be/41IHV2FE5CE?list=PLTErVrHH6uJja-ljtn7z9Q5Sz9WtCPGw1
You are correct, no question about it in this video. THX!
Thank you, Marti.
I would say that pretty much rules out a ‘smartphone’ device as well.
Not to worry… we are GOING to find out what camera(s) Hulburd was using and what the FULL story is on this latest ‘evidence dump’ from USFS.
One step at a time… swings of the axe.
So I just looked at the video again.
The zoom is very smooth and the resolution also seems quite good. And he’s really pushing it.
Looks more like optical zoom than digital zoom.
I haven’t youtubed to look at the Drift cameras. I think I will tonight.
And it’s also really quiet.
Ugh. Watching these videos about the drift is making me salivate.
Unfortunately, i’ve now looked at lots of Drift videos, and so far the zoom is not really used a lot. They’re mostly featuring lots of other things in which the zoom function isn’t really used.
Remember, you wrote on October 19, 2014 at 11:58 PM:
“Something tells me the already scheduled November 17 ‘ADOSH findings challenge review’ might play into the timing here.”
Welcome to today, everybody!!
BrainMistake Alert
It was WTKTT who wrote that, not TTWARE.
The important thing is:
It’s TODAY.
There actually is no regularly scheduled AOSHA (public) meeting for today.
We’ve never been quite where even Mr. Dougherty got that date but I’m also sure Mr. Dougherty has many contacts he trusts there in Arizona.
As per the following ADOSH link…
http://www.ica.state.az.us/Commissioners/COMM_agendas_page.aspx
…the LAST public meeting was November 13… and the NEXT scheduled public meeting is November 20.
The ‘minutes’ for the last November 13 meeting have not been published yet, but I would imagine if any decision was made at that meeting we have heard about by now.
It’s going to be an MSM ( Mainstream Media ) event, no matter what the decision is.
I am ASSUMING that this consideration about whether they should even consent to a review of their previous findings will show up on the agenda for one of their public meetings… because that’s what normally happens.
This certainly isn’t the first time ADOSH has issued fines against an Arizona employer and they have ‘contested’ them and requested a ‘review of the findings’.
There are plenty of OTHER past ‘minutes’ records for ADOSH where they discussed such ‘review requests’ in an open and transparent manner.
I do NOT know how ADOSH plans on handling this one.
It MIGHT all be ‘under the covers’ instead of in the ‘public’ agenda or minutes, like they have done in the past.
We shall see.
I believe the ADOSH findings will ultimately stand… exactly the way Marshall Krotenberg and his staff published them in the first place.
That was a ‘seriously screwed up’ workplace that entire weekend.
I’m sure AZCentral has their antennae turned on.
The Administrative Law Judge has rescheduled the hearing (Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health of The Industrial Commission of Arizona vs. Arizona State Forestry Division/State of Arizona) related to the Yarnell Hill Fire to July 8, 2015 at 9:30 a.m.
Wow.
Thank you, John.
Was any REASON given why someone thinks they now need another NINE MONTHS for this?
I also wonder who REQUESTED such a long extension.
Arizona Forestry?… or ADOSH?
This is itself newsworthy.
And I think the public has a right to know what’s going on here.
I doubt that Mr. Dougherty is making up the following ‘mouthful’…
(Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health of The Industrial Commission of Arizona vs. Arizona State Forestry Division/State of Arizona)
Sounds very much like the (full) official title of a duly filed court document.
I can find no such case filing in any law system I have access to, and no recent announcements about this rescheduling anywhere on the InterWeb.
Lazer head-cam camcorder”
“1st Lazer camcorder head-cam on youtube”
Published on Feb 12, 2013
“This is the first Lazer head-cam camcorder on youtube includes a Macro Zoom lens
“for close up”.Lazer and Zoom 1:15,Macro mode 1:35. The camera has a red lazer pointer to help you stay in frame with your subject when filming from head-cam.Camera has 8x Zoom and optical lens for macro mode
New Optical lens offers a higher performance lens than that of the Gopro’s lens”
http://youtu.be/-qMIbgLw4oo
I can’t really find anything about this camera on the google, other than this video, so I’m thinking he may be spelling/naming something incorrectly.
The big diff between this cam and the Drift cams is that this one has optical zoom rather than digital zoom, which the Drift cams use.
I haven’t had time to go back and really look at the videos to see if I can tell which type of zoom is in them. Digital zoom is really just cropping, so you lose resolution. Optical would keep the resolution and thus have better image quality.
Gotta go get some other stuff done. So have at it!
I just wanted to get a bead on about what cams are out there that have the features Aaron seems to be using.
Drift Innovation HD170 Stealth Action Camera with HD Recording, 4x Digital Zoom and 1.5-Inch LCD Screen (Black)
RF remote turns camera on and off while on your helmet or outside your vehicle. Saves batteries, memory and edit time
Night mode for optimal low-light performance. Digital 4X zoom
Ability to shoot in 60 frames per second for buttery smooth, professional quality slow motion video
The Drift HD170 Stealth is the worlds first sports action camera which films in full 1080p HD and has a built-in playback LCD screen and remote control. This rugged water resistant camera is the first camera that gives people what they want from an Action Camera.
Maximum Video Resolution: 1080p High Definition
SD Memory Capacity: up to 32GB
Digital Zoom: Digital x4 (in 720p/30/60fps & WVGA mode)
Lens Angle: 170° Fully Rotatable Wide Angle Lens
LCD Screen: 1.5″ Colour TFT
Water Resistant
Remote Control: Wireless RF (5m range) Hands Free Video and Photo
Audio: Built-in Microphone & Speaker
Menus: User Friendly Control Panel in 15 Languages
http://www.amazon.com/Drift-Innovation-Stealth-Recording-1-5-Inch/dp/B004L5AF4Q
I think, after reading the customer reviews, I might be willing to bet dollars to donuts this is it.
The remote clinched it for me, in the end.
That’s the older model.
Here”s the new smaller lighter one. Looks like they fixed the problems the customer reviews on the older one were describing
Drift HD Camera
http://www.amazon.com/Drift-Definition-Helmet-Action-Camera/dp/B005H2RDK6/ref=dp_ob_title_ce
If I were into headcam video, I”d scarf this baby up today. It’s 42% off — $174.00
Also:
DRIFT HD GHOST-S DIGITAL VIDEO ACTION CAMERA CAMCORDER
http://www.amazon.com/GHOST-S-DIGITAL-ACTION-CAMERA-CAMCORDER/dp/B00GJRCPRO/ref=cm_cr_pr_pb_t
Great stuff, Marti.
BTW… I did an extensive search ( believe me, extensive ) online for ANY other videos that might have been posted out there ANYWHERE that could be associated with Aaron Hulburd.
I found nothing.
There were even other photos taken by Christopher MacKenzie that were sitting online that allowed us to pretty much identify his camera before we ever got to see the EXIF data from his June 30, 2013 photos…
…but in this case ( for Aaron Hulburd )… I don’t see anything else ‘sitting out there’.
I did too. Same results.
A lot of crews use their videos to post on youtube for various purposes.
Blue Ridge doesn’t. Apparently neither do these guys.
Aaron probably uses his footage for in-house educational stuff, not for fun or advertising or public education.
Lets all move on I for one would rather bring any small information to this investigation and put it out to find additional input,
Some of us here have valuable contacts with the Families, FS, BLM, and Arizona Wild land Fire Fighters.
Some of these very people have given us information in strict confidence. Those that attack that information are only chasing those people back into the closet. People that would or could come forward are left with apprehension that they will as well be attacked.
Yes both RTS and I have contacts in the Fire community RTS being in and still working with Arizona FF’s is much closer to information than any of us. Those that contact us are yes afraid of loosing there jobs.
The Info we both got was key to IM John requesting the Videos. Wow New Revolution—-
IM knew about the Videos because RTS and I were contacted and the information given.
We knew there would be some skepticism here. Joy and Sonny who both live in the area confirmed that people had reviewed some new video information. That was being passed around.
So the additional information both RTS and I have indicates there is more to the Videos than was released we herd that and some other info that this may not be the only Video with info on it.
Did the video get shown in its entirety?
Did the video only get shown to a select few?
Was the Video we got only a part of the whole?
Some of the information out there says that the last part of the video showing the deployment scene was requested to be removed before it was released.
Dose that tell you some one or ones reviewed the Videos prior to release?
There are a lot of unanswered questions still lurking in the mist.
Why were the Videos not shown to the Families and Lawyers before they were released?
I rest my case at this point and hope that some one out there will contact John Dougherty with
more information to break this wide open…………………..
Thanks to all who have given me confidential information know your Identities are still safe.
.
Exactly Bob–Too many are afraid of loosing their jobs for revealing what they know. Finding new evidence has been a slow going process because of those fears.
The last photos we gave out had to be in strict confidence for source. That person we gave appreciation to was happy that her photos may have helped. You see there are just too many cronies in this area with significant power over peoples lives to scare them. Still, Joy has been able to convince a few that their photos are important no matter how insignificant they are.
I thought there might be enough evidence out there to bring in a proper federal investigation but perhaps more is needed. Wouldn’t the deaths of 19 men beg for it considering the circumstances? Well we will continue searching for more.
A sad thing is that certain people with money and clout have a lot of information they do not share. Sharing on this forum expose the data to a multitude of savvy people and some with exceptional analytical skills. Joy in blowing up many of these photos had discovered some details that otherwise have been overlooked. She noticed that the initial count radioed in came to 18? That leaves questions as to whether another body was found later in another location away from the others. Of course the excuse will be that in the haste and excitement there was a miscount. Possible but considering all the other actions in this investigation we wonder.
Dr. Ted. Putman says that bodies should never be moved in haste since it takes away information that might be vital to understanding the real cause. We do not know how well that was handled here but hopefully it was done properly.
There are people here of good repute that told Joy and I that the dispatcher for the Yarnell fire department was instructed to shred records. We were told that the local fire department has witnesses that saw an argument as to whether to put the fire out or let it go until it grew into greater proportions so that crews could go to work. Considering the source of this information, I wonder why this is not investigated.
Again certain reputable people have told us that they have photos of two yellow and white ATV’s right at the fire on the evening lightening supposedly started this fire. Little has been said about this and I wonder why someone from government has not jumped on this information like bees on honey.
Maybe they have? If so we do not know and I personally do not have the clout to get them to do that. Maybe a Bob Powers or a John Daugherty or a mayor Kueykendahl could, Our friend, Charley Mosely, CIA operative and before a smioke jumper has sadly passed since the fire. He would have known what was necessary for such investigation and I hope there might be some other concerned firefighter with such high qualifications in the process to get honest answers which I believe will only come from an outside source such as the FBI.
I see that too many people are hiding evidence for selfish reasons, fear, or comraderie. Shame on them since their information is needed by the loved ones and not least because the full truth of this incident will save future lives.
I back Joy 100% on her efforts, but she is ill. The doctors tell her she has throat, tung and cancer tumors throughout her body. Yet she keeps plodding on in spite of doctors who want her in their clutches as soon as possible.
Something I am going to do now–we learned that from Show low a firefighter whom has only been on the fires for a couple years and is a young man has come down with a deadly cancer. Is there something in that agent orange fire retardant being used that the chemical companies are not telling us about? When I worked the Uranium mines they assured us that that low level radiation would not harm us. Yet nearly every Uranium miner I know has come down with one cancer or another. I myself have had a melanoma removed. You see, we are often lied to so that these big companies make their profits or because a government needs another atom bomb to wave at its enemies. Sadly that is the way the world works until people unite to protest.
Don’t be weak and fearful–put the information out even if you have to be anonymous to save your life.
Thank you good ones for keeping at this thing. Doing a good thing is always good for the soul.
also not the man was 100% in PERFECT health before graduating in 2012 to be a EMT/Firefighter.
People in the field new should keep a close eye on your blood labs before entering…fight some fires and see where you are at after fighting the fires.
Very good point!
What are they using out there to fight the fires nowadays…stuff to eventually kill their own men with insidious diseases. What is in that slurry drop.
I will be alright Sonny. Yet that was a forehead boo boo time today. I ordered proper labs to get proper answers.
Thank You to everybody who sweated out this past difficult week, trying to stay focused in spite of all the insanity provided by the United States Forest Service, the Arizona Department of Forestry, and the esteemed Law Professor.
And thank you to Aaron Hulburd who both captured the important videos we have been discussing all week and risked his life to do so while attempting, through fire and brimstone, to save the lives of the 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots.
This is not a game.
Namaste
Elizabeth wrote ( in response to Method )…
>> When the USDA (which is the “parent” organization over the USFS) “redacted”
>> (or blurred) parts of the videos with the “R” in the name, the USDA had to save
>> those videos (the ones with the”R” in the names) in NEW file formats (as, say, Mp4
>> instead of whatever format they were in when Aaron took the video originally),
If you are NOT lying about having ‘original byte-for-byte copies’ of the same material that was released last Saturday by USFS ( via Arizona Forestry’s YouTube channel )… then just look at the EXIF metadata for the 18 files that the USFS insists were not redacted in any way.
Right there… you will see this ‘whatever format they were in when Aaron took the video’.
Then tell us what that ‘original format’ actually was for ANY of those other ‘unredacted’ videos.
If you can’t do that… then you don’t have ‘original byte-for-byte copies’ of the material…
…and that means you are a LIAR.
I think we just wasted a large chunk of yesterday.
Trying to chase down another, as TTWARE warned, red herring.
I’m moving on. I suggest we all do.
Her little games are just not worth our time. Seriously.
I don’t think she even knows what “exif metadata” is, or how to go about finding it. Seriously.
That’s why I made the comment about her comment about the flipphone videos.
If she had any clue whatsoever about what she was talking about, she would never have written that comment.
She thinks it’s a game.
Marti… you are right.
This is all just ‘games’ and ‘noise’ coming from her.
I thought you would catch the irony of what I posted above.
If she has ‘byte-for-byte original copies’ of any videos… she doesn’t even need to look at the EXIF data.
She can just look at the file extension to see what ‘original FORMAT’ these videos are in.
.MOV, AVI, 3GP, etc, etc.
The EXIF data would just simply be telling you MORE about it.
She doesn’t have what she claims to have.
She’s a liar.
Oh, right!
Thanks!
I was too busy chasing actioncams with zooms, I hadn’t even thought about that.
Plus I just don’t do enough video to be handily thinking about that.
Although I do appreciate the fact that her inane questions about the wind compelled me to sit down and really think about that and write what I wrote about the weather and the fire and the topography on this fire.
I really needed to do that.
So there’s that.
Elizabeth/Logical Phallacy,
Once again, I ALLEGE that you PROVE yourself to be a LIAR, DEVIOUS, VENOMOUS, with hidden agendas and so much more, with your despicable attitudes and behaviors. WHY do you continue to persist in this manner? You accuse others of what YOU yourself are responsible for and YOU yourself are doing on a regular basis. You are the CONSUMMATE HYPOCRITE! Who do you think you are anyway? Were you an only child and this is the only way you can get the attention you so desperately need? You are SO far off base on almost everything you post anymore, full of lies, falsehoods, and half-truths and then some. You are definitely setting a new standard for Law Professors. And your pattern is SO predicable as well. This latest one with you claiming to have all the original videos is an all-time classic though, and may top the Elizabeth/Logical Phallacy charts. A new zenith in Elizabeth/Logical Phallacy lies and hypocrisy! Please crawl back into your hole or into your web.
WARNING: DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH/LOGICAL PHALLACY YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGAINST YOU. YOU WILL BE SORRY..
“You are definitely setting a new standard for Law Professors.”
Perfect.
Thank you for putting my exact thoughts into words.
I am completely appalled.
I have never known any Law Professors.
I have known, however, and awesome New Mexico State Supreme Court Judge.
She would have been completely appalled by this, also, I am sure.
RTS,
You may be pulling your punches a little bit. How many times has Elizabeth Nowicki shared information on this comment board that had been given to her privately? I don’t recall your ever having given her permission to use your name, for instance, but she did. She seemingly repeated, on here, details of private communications between the two of you, I believe again without your permission. That kind of failure to exercise normal rules of social courtesy as regards communications made in confidence would be poor behavior from someone working a fast food counter, but is incredibly poor in my opinion coming from an attorney.
Agree.
SR,
Thanks for your input. I appreciate it very much. I certainly AM ‘pulling my punches’ by trying to do the right thing and be as ‘sensitive’ as I can to the Black Widow Spider (BWS) Elizabeth/Logical Phallacy. It appalls me, yet does NOT surprise me that she is doing all this and behaving in the childish, yet devious manner that she is. Once again, she has set a new standard for Law Professors. This especially includes violating confidential matters by openly exposing to the world what was written in confidence between two agreeable (at the time) parties. She did NOT have my permission to expose any of what she has spewed forth. Her actions are the epitome of BASIC legal professionalism and BASIC common courtesy just thrown in your face.
WARNING: DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH/LOGICAL PHALLACY YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGAINST YOU. YOU WILL BE SORRY..
SR,
Clarification. It should read “Her actions are the epitome of VIOLATIONS of BASIC legal professionalism and BASIC common courtesy just thrown in your face.
WARNING: DO NOT GIVE ELIZABETH/LOGICAL PHALLACY YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS AS SHE WILL USE IT AGAINST YOU. YOU WILL BE SORRY..
At 4:12 PM today, November 16, 2014,
The counselor and Law Professor, Elizabeth, wrote the following, regarding the original files of Aaron Hulburd’s extremely important video collection:
“I have it (at least for the ones I bothered to check), and I know that others have it.
I don’t know what JD has.”
Sorry, counselor and Law Professor.
All things considered, I don’t believe for a second you are in possession of what you claim, here, to be.
FAIL
Apparently, since the Law Professor is, seemingly, unable/unwilling to answer the fundamental question I asked her at 5:17 PM today:
“What cameras was Aaron using?”
…which would corroborate her ASTONISHING (all things considered) claim at 4:23 PM today that:
“I have it (at least for the ones I bothered to check), and I know that others have it.
I don’t know what JD has.”
and thus prove her credibility;
having, instead, prioritized attacking Bob Powers,
I rest my case that the said Law Professor appears to be more committed to her personal agenda (whatever that is),
than the search for TRUTH regarding both the videos in question, which are extremely important (to the point of being FOIA’d), and, therefore the TRUTH regarding this devastating wildfire and its subsequent investigations.
Marti… there are only two possibilities here.
1) The person commenting here known as ‘Elizabeth’ is telling the truth, and she did receive original byte-for-byte copies of material that USFS has in their possession at some unknown time prior to the orchestrated public release of information last Saturday, and the fulfillment of InvestigativeMEDIA’s original FOIA request a few days after that.
2) She is lying.
** IF (1) is TRUE
Then we actually owe her some thanks. She has done nothing but prove that everything we have been saying here all along is TRUE and she has automatically justified the thoughts, postings and information that regularly appears here on this forum.
But she has also gone further.
She has just basically provided PROOF that the US Forestry Service may have just violated Federal Law.
Here is what Mr. John Dougherty has already said publicly about what he received as a (supposed) valid ‘response’ to his legal FOIA request…
——————————————————————
Investigative MEDIA
Article: Forest Service releases Yarnell Hill Fire videos to InvestigativeMEDIA
November 12, 2014 By John Dougherty
The U.S. Forest Service has released to InvestigativeMEDIA the same set of Yarnell Hill Fire videos the Arizona Forestry Division posted on its website on Saturday, Nov. 8.
InvestigativeMEDIA filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the videos on Oct. 13. There is no indication that the Arizona Forestry Division filed a separate Freedom of Information Act request for the documents. The Forest Service has not provided an explanation of why the Forestry Division received the videos prior to InvestigativeMEDIA. The division states it received the videos on Nov. 7.
————————————————————————–
The letter of fulfillment that was received by InvestigativeMEDIA was directly from…
Tom Harbour – US Forest Service – Director of Fire and Aviation Management,
The key sentence is…
“The U.S. Forest Service has released to InvestigativeMEDIA the SAME set of Yarnell Hill Fire videos the Arizona Forestry Division posted on its WEBSITE on Saturday, Nov. 8”.
THOSE files ( the ones Arizona Forestry has posted on their website / YouTube channel ) are in no way ‘byte-for-byte original copies’ of the requested material, as are legally required to be provided in response to valid FOIA requests.
If Elizabeth DID receive MORE than that, or DIFFERENT, more complete versions of the same material in response to HER FOIA request(s)… then she has just proved that the US Forestry Service is ‘picking and choosing’ how to fulfill valid, legal FOIA requests… depending on WHO is making the request.
That’s illegal.
She would deserve ‘thanks again’ for now supplying public testimony that the US Forestry Service may have just committed a punishable offense.
I am sure some media outlets will follow up on this. It would be a big story, if true.
** IF (2) is TRUE ( That she is simply a liar )
Then I, for one, would respectfully request that she never post to this ongoing discussion again.
She now has an opportunity to PROVE whether it’s ‘door number (1)’ or ‘door number (2).
I hope she avails herself of the opportunity.
Exactly.
That’s part of the reason I used the term “astonishing” to describe her claim, which she seems so completely either unable or unwilling to corroborate.
Dear JD~
Can we Freds pleeze haz a new chapter?
Pretty Pleeze?
I know you must be really, really busy, given all this insanity surrounding the USFS –> Arizona Forestry Inc. release of the (cough cough) Aaron Hulburd videos, and I really appreciate all you do.
However, it’s really getting hard to type and post comments here.
Thank you in advance!
Signed,
Moi
I second the request.
This ‘chapter’ is already too large for it to completely load on a number of mobile devices.
Reply to Elizabeth post on November 16, 2014 at 1:20 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> WTKTT asked: “If they are NOT claiming they made ANY redactions
>> whatsoever on these 18 other ‘original’ pieces of evidence… then WHERE
>> are the byte-for-byte ‘original copies’ of them and WHY were they
>> not already provided?”
>>
>> They WERE already provided.
To who?
The material sitting on YouTube is by no means byte-for-byte copies of the originals.
If they were… we would be seeing all the original EXIF metatdata in the files.
We are NOT.
Mr. Dougherty has indicated that the material he has received on a DVD that is also supposed to be a valid (legal) fulfillment of his original FOIA request is nothing more than the same YouTube videos linked to on the Arizona Forestry website prior to the fullfillment of his request.
I would HOPE they actually sent Mr. Dougherty valid, legal, byte-for-byte copies of the material they have in their possession ( as they are supposed to )… but it doesn’t sound like that happened.
I have it (at least for the ones I bothered to check), and I know that others have it.
I don’t know what JD has.
Fabulous!
What cameras was Aaron using?
The campfire circle waits with baited breath.
Marti Reed says
NOVEMBER 16, 2014 AT 6:01 PM
One would think a Law Professor would_____________________________
(Instructions: Fill in the blank section above the line.)
One Possible Answer:
Answer the obvious question that would prove he/she is telling the truth, instead of diverting it by attacking somebody else.
Oh, wait a minute……
Maybe they don’t teach that in Law School?
Case in point”
“What I DID say to you, Bob Powers, is that the lies and rumors you have repeatedly posted here are concerning. For example, some of your more recent lies or rumors are: the families had all previewed the videos…”
Still seeking submissions.
Marti, if you haven’t noticed, I am not putting up videos that I have re the YHF on youtube any more. But I imagine that John Dougherty will do it if you e-mail him and ask him politely. 🙂
Sorry, counselor.
That doesn’t answer my question.
Which, if you truly are in possession of what you say you are in possession of, you should easily be able to answer.
I would think a Law Professor would easily understand that.
Another possible answer.
Answer the obvious question that would prove he/she is telling the truth, instead of diverting it by sharing what somebody else may or may not have in their possession.
Oh wait, maybe they don’t teach that in Law School?
Case in point:
“Marti, if you haven’t noticed, I am not putting up videos that I have re the YHF on youtube any more. But I imagine that John Dougherty will do it if you e-mail him and ask him politely.”
Another possible answer.
Be able to successfully demonstrate how to be cross-examined, especially when one’s credibility is being questioned.
Oh wait, maybe they don’t teach that in Law School?
Case in point:
Crickets in response to the $64,000 question.
Tap Tap Tap
Still waiting for the answer to the $64,000 question.
Apparently, since our counselor, the esteemed Law Professor is, seemingly, unable/unwilling to answer the fundamental question I asked her at 5:17 PM (two and a half hours ago):
“What cameras was Aaron using?”
…which would corroborate her claim at 4:23 PM (almost three and a half hours ago) that started this whole thread:
“I have it (at least for the ones I bothered to check), and I know that others have it.
I don’t know what JD has.”
and thus prove her credibility;
having, instead, prioritized attacking Bob Powers,
I rest my case that our counselor, the esteemed Law Professor, appears to be more committed to her personal agenda (whatever that is),
than the search for TRUTH regarding both the videos in question, which are extremely important (to the point of being FOIA’d), and, therefore the TRUTH regarding this devastating wildfire and its subsequent investigations.
Correction.
I should have written:
“…which would corroborate her astonishing claim at 4:23 PM (almost three and a half hours ago) that started this whole thread:
Because that claim is, indeed ASTONISHING, all things considered.
One would think a Law Professor, when making an ASTONISHING claim, all things considered, would understand the necessity of PROVING that claim, all things considered.
Evidently you have not bothered to check any thing.
You bet the Farm that the whole thing on the Videos was rumors.
and you lost………..Now you have no information no contacts that have any thing
but your still in a hole attempting to impress WHO????????????????
No one here cares.
Same time replies nice Marti
I swore I had rested my case.
But. I. Just. Couldn’t. Resist.
Bob, just to clarify, I never said there were no further videos. I, actually, have long been aware of them (or actually in possession of them).
My point to you was that, contrary to your adamant contentions that these videos were going to reveal an argument between Steed and Marsh, I knew that they wouldn’t. I also made the point – correctly – that you and Fred Schoeffler were wrong about the families having viewed the videos. And you and Fred were wrong about ADOSH somehow having anything to do with the videos. And you and Fred were starting rumors – that were wrong – about Brendan having been deposed. All of that was wrong…. and I was CORRECT that you and Fred Schoeffler were getting all of that wrong.
Good try, though, Bob. Good try. 🙂
So now you are saying you have had these videos for some time that were just released. Now I have herd every thing You lie to make your self the outstanding investigator of all time.
A few days ago you said there were no additional Videos and we were just creating rumors.
Good luck on all that BS
Bob, I NEVER said there were no more videos – I knew that there were, and I know that there are actually more still, which I reached out to JD regarding (because I obviously have largely given up posting stuff publicly, although I still e-mail materials to people who want them privately).
What I DID say to you, Bob Powers, is that the lies and rumors you have repeatedly posted here are concerning. For example, some of your more recent lies or rumors are: the families had all previewed the videos that the AZFD just posted last weekend, ADOSH was somehow involved, the videos showed an argument between Steed and Marsh, Brendan was deposed. You remember those lies, right, Bob? THOSE were the things with which I was disagreeing.
I never denied that Hulburd (and others) had more video, because most of us already KNEW that for a fact. Indeed, there are more videos still, beyond the ones that I am assuming JD has recently received (although none that I know of (or already have) are Hulburd’s other than the ones already made public).
Elizabeth Some one like you calls me a Liar.
Who the F**K do you think you are????
The argument is on the redacted info/Notes
and on a copied video from one of the GM crew that was mailed to a family member I was Told. The Statements from Dudley confirm The argument
I have nothing more to say to a total F**King Moron .
Bob, don’t waste your valuable emotional energy.
I’m cross-examing her.
Come join the fun!
Start with my questionnaire!
Hint.
Look upstream.
I’m not sure she’s capable of being cross-examined, though.
Hmmmmmmm.
One would think a Law Professor would know how to do that.
Maybe they don’t teach that in Law School?
I wish I had the ability to pull up past postings for Elizabeth
Look at what Elizabeth poster to me on Nov. 8th @1133 am
In short—- there are no new videos and I was just starting RUMMERS Dam Counselor you better check what you say before you attack people for the truth.
That was just before all the Videos were released and you started becoming a fool. Now you state you knew all about them. You are a total and complete fool who has lost her worth here…………
Bob, what I said was this:
“Bob Powers and Fred Schoeffler said the helmet camera was going to be released by ADOSH days ago. But yet it is not here. Before you start rumors, guys, do your research first, ok?”
And that was TRUE. Not a damn thing came from ADOSH, which everyone who knew about those videos (which did not include either you or Fred, it seems) obviously knew.
I also said “as best I can tell, there is zero validity to the rumor Bob and Fred keep trying to start that Brendan has some big secret he is withholding and refusing to share and only now willing to share.”
And that remains the TRUTH, Bob. You and Fred are relentless with the inaccurate rumors and untruths. My personal opinion is that such things are hurtful and disruptive to both the grieving families and the grieving friends/community. I am entitled to my opinion on that, just as you are entitled to yours. 🙂
Please respond to the $64,000 question which will, easily and quickly establish your credibility as to your claim (which you started this thread with) to being in possession of the original videos in question.
What cameras was Aaron using?
Given that you keep saying you are so keen on
the TRUTH
Elizabeth
You took that hook line and sinker.
I rest my case
You should know better————-
Lesson #1 of Internet Conversations.
Don’t. Feed. The. Trolls.
Our counselor is clearly acting in a way befitting a Troll here.
I think it’s high time to quite feeding said counselor.
She’s truly
Wasting. Our. Precious. Time.
One would think a Law Professor would_____________________________
(Instructions: Fill in the blank section above the line.)
Can’t answer that question and/or make any suggestions.
I don’t know who she is working for, or what her agenda really is.
** THE COLORS MATTER
Reminds me of a test I took in college.
It was a final exam in a Theatrical Lighting class.
The professor hands out 3D drawing of a box set on a stage and says we are supposed to ‘draw in’ the electrics and what they call the ‘hang’ ( what fresnels go where, where we would use pano-spots, etc. ) and indicate what color ‘gels’ we would use.
The drawings he handed out were all just black/white Xerox copies of the same sketch. Everyone got the same ‘drawing’.
I was done with the test in 3 minutes.
All I did was write at the top of the paper…
I can’t answer the questions or perform the task.
You have neglected to indicate what COLOR the set is painted.
I was the only one who got an ‘A+’ on the test.
Reply to Elizabeth post on November 16, 2014 at 4:12 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> I have it,
Super!
What is the DEVICE name ( Make / Model ) of the camera Aaron Hulburd was using to shoot the videos, then?
She already TOLD us, WTKTT!!!
Just a few days ago (this past week feels like a month, so there’s that), our counselor was absolutely sure the first three were taken with one of those flip callphones that firefighters use because nobody can afford to use the newer ones.
Fine… the let her answer my question.
What is the NAME ( Make / Model ) of the device?
Exactly.
Checkmate.
Look upstream.
Sorry, counselor.
All things considered, I don’t believe for a second you are in possession of what you claim, here, to be.
FAIL
**
** MORE ABOUT THE FIRST THREE ( NEWLY RELEASED ) VIDEOS
Here is some more information about the first THREE videos that were part of the 21 just released by the US Forestry Service.
It still seems they are NOT actually from Aaron Hulburd’s specific ‘Helmet Camera’ ( or whatever kind of camera he was actually using that afternoon to shoot all those other M2U00xxx videos )… but it DOES appear they WERE taken by Aaron Hulburd with the other two of the ‘Prescott Three’. ( Jason Clawson and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell ).right there next to him ( in their UTVs ).
Here is why.
In other photos and videos from the fire… we can definitely see ( and have verified ) that the VEHICLES that Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell were driving were all ‘staged’ there on the side of the road just a few hundred yards south of the Incident Command Post there at the Model Creek School in Peeples Valley…
…but they are not IN the vehicles and the two UTVs are GONE from the trailers attached to Clawson and Yowell’s pickup trucks.
So they were out ‘bombing around’ on the fire somewhere when those other photos and videos captured their vehicles ‘staged’ there by the ICP.
As it turns out… this ‘burnout operation’ represented in the new ‘first three’ videos is where they actually seemed to have gone in their UTVs.
At exactly +27 seconds in the SECOND of these first three videos ( Video 0630131533 ), The ‘roll-cage’ and back storage section of a UTV suddenly slips into view in the very bottom left corner of the video.
Only KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s UTV ( with the red hood and fenders ) had a roll-cage.
Jason Clawson’s UTV had no such roll-cage ( at least not on that day ).
So whoever is shooting this video ( 0630131533 ) of that in-progress burnout operation up there on Model Creek Road was standing in the middle of the road… but also standing NEXT to this UTV with the roll-cage that we can now see was right there next to him.
At the very end of this video… you can even see the Nomex-shirt ( elbow? ) of whoever was standing to the cameraman’s LEFT briefly come into view. So that is proof that there was at least one other person ( with a Nomex shirt on ) standing to the LEFT of whoever was filming this particular video.
In the NEXT video with filename 0630131534 ( the THIRD of these first 3 videos in the new release )… the camera is now MOVING BACKWARDS as it films the men conducting more of the burnout operation.
The camera perspective is now from the RIGHT-CENTER of the road, and not from DEAD-CENTER in the road like the other two videos that precede this one.
At exactly +13 seconds into this THIRD video ( 0630131534 )… we again suddenly see part of the same UTV seen in the previous video to the LEFT of the camera… and it, too, is now ‘creeping forward’ on the road.
However… THIS time… we actually do see the RED FENDERS of the UTV which means it was most probably KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s UTV. I haven’t actually seen ANY other UTVs on the fire that day that had a RED hood and RED fenders like Yowell’s did.
Some of the GEAR that is in the back of this RED-fendered UTV also matches what can be seen later on in other views of Yowell’s UTV over on Shrine Road in the M2U00xxx video series.
But there is more.
At the very END of this video… just for a moment… we seem to ALSO see the fender of Clawson’s all-olive-drab UTV come into view in about the mid-left-center-bottom of the video as the ‘movement’ of the camera actually also seems to ‘pick up speed’ a little.
Seems to be proof that BOTH of the ‘Prescott Three’ UTVs were actually right there up on Model Creek Road… with Jason Clawson actively driving his and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell actively driving his… so that only leaves Aaron Hulburd with ‘hands free’ to be the one filming the burnout.
So here is what I think all this proves…
1) After Jason Clawson and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell unloaded their UTVs from their trailers up there where they were parked near the ICP… all 3 of ‘The Prescott Three’ headed up to the Model Creek Road area in the TWO UTVs.
2) Once there… Aaron Hulburd exited KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s RED-fendered UTV and was then standing in the middle of the dirt road and began filming this ‘burnout’ operation coming TOWARDS them.
3) In the SECOND video… Yowell and his RED-fendered UTV ( with roll-cage ) was to Hulburd’s LEFT while he was filming down the road, and Jason Clawson’s all-olive-drab UTV ( with no roll cage ) was actually there to Hulburd’s RIGHT, but never comes into view in this video.
4) In the THIRD video… Hulburd has now SAT on the BACK of Jason Clawson’s UTV, and he is still filming the ‘burnout’ operation coming towards them… but now BOTH Yowell and Clawson are driving BOTH UTV’s slowly forward, side-by-side, in order to stay ahead of the approaching burnout operation. At the end of the video… Jason Clawson picks up speed a little and that is why we suddenly see the RED fender of Yowell’s UTV come into view for a moment. Clawson got a little ‘ahead’ of Yowell who was also creeping forward in his UTV on the LEFT side of the video and that’s when we see Yowell’s RED fender appear there.
This still doesn’t FULLY explain why these videos do NOT match the resolution of Aaron Hulburd’s other ‘Helmet Cam’ videos… or why these videos use a DATE/TIME stamp for a filename and the others ones use the M2U00xxx filename convention… but I think we can take a pretty darn good guess at that, now.
Aaron Hulburd had some OTHER device with him capable of shooting movies and THAT is what he was using to shoot these FIRST three videos that we can now see.
It also makes sense that it would be Aaron Hulburd filming this ‘burnout’ operation up there on Model Creek Road. He is a career ‘Fuels Specialist’ for the Prescott National Forest… and this ‘burnout’ is exactly the sort of thing he would be interested in recording on film. Yowell and Clawson were just driving the two UTVs at that point.
I do believe we ARE looking at least TWO different ‘devices’ used to shoot the video that has appeared in the latest ‘evidence dump’ from USFS… but they BOTH probably belonged to Aaron Hulburd.
So that begs a new question which is similar to the one that has finally ‘shaken loose’ these other ‘Helmet Cam’ videos.
Whatever OTHER ‘video/audio’ capable device Hulburd might have been using to shoot these ‘burnout operation’ videos… was that REALLY the ONLY time he shot any videos or captured any radio transmissions that day with THAT ‘other’ device?
That is what the new USFS release would have us believe… the same way they wanted us to believe that the original ‘Helmet-Cam’ MAYDAY footage was the ONLY time Hulburd used his Helmet-Cam that day, as well.
I do NOT trust the US Forestry Service ( or Arizona Forestry ).
There could still be MORE videos just from that ‘other’ device Hulburd appears to have been using that day to shoot the burnout operation on Model Creek Road.
As I originally said that it was NOT CREDIBLE that the original MAYDAY footage could have been the ONLY time a true-blue videophile like Aaron Hulburd would have actually USED his Helmet Camera that day ( and it turns out my instincts were correct )… I also do NOT believe that if Hulburd had another video/audio capable device with him that day that he would have ONLY used it that ONE time there on Model Creek Road.
** A WORD ABOUT THE ORIGINAL FOIA REQUEST AND WHAT ENDED UP ‘RELEASED’…
When ‘InvestigativeMEDIA’ issued that FOIA request directly to the Prescott National Forest it was specifically asking for ‘Helmet Camera Video’ that was taken by any PNF employee who had worked the Yarnell Hill Fire.
Prescott National Forest obviously then had an ‘Oh Shit’ moment… and they immediately FORWARDED this valid FOIA request on to their ‘parent company’, the US Forestry Service.
In the letter that InvestigativeMEDIA got back from the USFS that was basically just ‘acknowledging’ the receipt of the FOIA request originally directed to Prescott National Forest… something got ‘mixed up’ as per what the actual REQUEST was.
Here is exactly what the ‘letter of receipt’ from USFS said…
—————————————————————————–
Dear Mr. Dougherty:
This letter acknowledges receipt of your Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request dated October 20, 2014, which was received in the Washington Office (WO) FOIA Service Center, Office of Regulatory and Management Services on October 21, 2014.
You requested access to the complete, unedited video taken by Prescott National Forest firefighters on June 30, 2013 during the Yarnell Hill Fire.
(snip)
Sincerely,
/s/ Jeffrey Jasper for
GEORGE VARGAS
Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act Officer
( US Forestry Service Logo appears here )
—————————————————————————–
Notice that the letter of receipt no longer specifically says that the FOIA request is for ‘Helmet Camera’ video ( only ).
So that is why those first THREE videos were probably included in this specific response to InvestigativeMEDIA’s original FOIA request for ‘Helmet Camera Video’.
When it hit the USFS… the ‘Helmet Camera’ specific part of the request had gotten ‘lost in the translation’ so now the request ‘morphed’ into one that was requesting ALL video(s) that might have been shot by a PNF employee on the Yarnell Hill Fire.
So that’s why the other three ‘Non-Helmet-Camera’ videos also got ‘popped out of the darkness’ here and added to the beginning of the list of videos.
Whether or not this really is ALL of the ‘video shot by any PNF employee who was at the Yarnell fire’ still remains to be seen… but I think this proves WHY those other three Non-Helmet Camera videos probably ended up included in THIS release. They weren’t specifically what you could call ‘Helmet Camera’ videos… but they WERE videos taken by a PNF employee ( Hulburd ) in Yarnell on June 30, 2013.
** A WORD ABOUT THESE FILENAMES
I am feeling the need to mention something about the filenames for these first three videos in the 21 just released by USFS.
The filenames for these first 3 videos ( as released ) are…
0630131532
0630131533
0630131534
It is pretty much ‘normal’ for a lot of video/audio capable devices to use this
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE style format for auto-naming the files
being saved to the memory card.
That in no way really tells us exactly what KIND of device was being used.
However… something is still a little odd.
If any device is using this kind of DATE + TIME format for actually naming files…
it is bascially IMPOSSIBLE for it to really only have been…
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE
It pretty much HAD to have been at least…
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE + SECOND.
Here is why.
You can’t possible expect a file naming scheme for a photo/video capable device to work when it can’t stamp the filenames down to at least the SECOND.
Anyone could take multiple photos/videos within a one minute timeframe and you also cannot possibly ever have TWO filenames on a memory card ( or even a hard drive ) with the EXACT same filename(s).
So if that device really was never using the SECONDS value for the filename stamping… it would have also have had to have been able to distinguish files all taken within the same minute with some kind of NAMING convention like this…
0630131532
0630131532(1)
0630131532(2)
0630131532(3)
Etc…
EACH of these first THREE files in this latest USFS evidence dump are all mysteriously 29.8 seconds long ( to within a few hundreths of a second ), and that is still not possible to achieve with the human hand working a shutter button… but I also still have no good explanation for that.
We would need to know more about the actual device in use to know more about that and whether it indicates any kind of ‘tampering’ with the original videos.
But… I still get the feeling that we are not seeing the ACTUAL (original) filenames for these first 3 videos in the recent ‘evidence dump’.
Each video is 29.8 ( Call it 30 ) seconds long… but the timestamps are all on consecutive MINUTE values ( 1532, 1533, 1534 ).
In order to believe these filenames are all exactly the way they originally were on the device’s memory card… that means we also have to believe that Aaron Hulburd ( or whoever took them ) also PAUSED for ( at least ) 30 seconds in-between each video filmed, and never tried to shoot anything that had the same MINUTE value for a start time.
I guess that’s possible… but regardless… something still tells me we are still not seeing the SECONDS value of the original filenames… which means these filenames themselves have been (essentiallly) ‘altered from the originals’.
That would be even more reason to question whether this latest ‘evidence dump’ from USFS really represents the original material they have in their possession… and whether it is, in fact, a full legal fulfillment of a valid FOIA request.
** MORE ABOUT THE UTVS
The rest of this is just for completeness sake and shows how we CAN know what KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s and Jason Clawson’s UTVs really looked like.
The new M2U00xxx videos also finally give us better looks at the UTVs that belonged to KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Jason Clawson that day… which has made it easier to identify them as the same ones that can seen for a few frames in the other 0630131532, 33 and 34 videos.
The M2U00267 video is 2 minutes and 18 seconds long.
At +1:36, Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell turn around and start walking backing EAST to where their 2 UTV’s are parked back in the actual St. Joseph Shrine parking log.
The rest of the video is just them walking all the way back to where theri UTV’s are parked and the closer they get… the better you can see the 2 (parked) UTV’s.
The one on the LEFT belongs to KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and is the one with the RED hood and fenders on it. It has BOTH a roll-cage and a windshield frame on it. It is also the one with two front seats and the one that Aaron Hulburd also travels when they all move around.
The UTV on the RIGHT is Jason Clawson’s. It appears to be pretty much the same make/model as Yowell’s with identical front grill and headlights, but it does NOT have either a roll-cage or a windshield frame installed ( at least not on that day ). It is all olive-drab. It also appears to have some ‘gear’ in the front which would make it hard for two people to travel in it… so that is probably why Aaron Hulburd was always traveling in the other UTV with Yowell whenever they were ‘moving around’ in these UTVs that day.
At about +2:09 or +2:11 ( in video M2U00267 ) is the best closeup view of BOTH of these UTVs sitting side-by-side.
When they reach the 2 UTV’s… KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell moves towards the one on the left ( with the red fenders ) to get into the driver’s seat.Aarron Hulburd ( still filming ) is right behind Yowell and gets very close to him at this point and this is when you can clearly see that Hulburd’s camera has NOT been mounted on his Helmet for this video.
The camera lens is actually at about the same height as Yowell’s right elbow… which means it was probably clipped to Hulburd’s front shirt pocket while he was filming this M2U00267 video.
So whatever Aaron Hulburd was using to shoot these M2U00xxx videos that have come to be known as the ‘Helmet Cam’ videos probably wasn’t an actual brand-name Helmet Camera at all.
It is more likely it is just a device that is easily CLIPPED to things like a Helmet Bracket, or a short pocket, or whatever.
It it still important to know exactly WHAT device that was… what KIND of EXIF metadata SHOULD have been present in the video files themselves… and why NONE of that metadata has been included in what was supposed to be a valid fulfillment of a fully legal FOIA request.
Awesome! Thanks!
As soon as I looked at your post and saw that list of files, my brain went “Click.” I thought, “That CAN’T be the original filenames….”
And great analysis of the Model Creek burnout videos. I think they were having a blast. That, to me, is the sign of a true videophile. When I’m “in my zone” as a photographer (and it’s actually a PHYSICAL thing), I don’t stop shooting until I’m either exhausted or my cards or batteries have run out.
It’s also a mental/visual thing. Your eye starts seeing everything that’s “talking.” And it’s never just one thing that’s “talking.” There’s usually a big visual “conversation” that’s going on all around you. It’s hard to describe it. But you capture it.
I “saw” that happening with Chris McKenzie, through the eye of his lens. I could actually almost “feel” him seeing and clicking. And he was very very good at that.
I’m not a wedding photographer, but I’ve taken online classes from some of the best of them on CreativeLIVE. They also describe that “dance” of the photographer and the scene and the camera in the midst of the creative and emotional chaos of a wedding.
And, that tells me, also, that I’d bet big money Aaron was doing a WHOLE lot more filming than we are seeing.
You capture it. Because you HAVE to.
That’s a photographer. That’s a videographer.
I might add that a viewer of the pre released showing stated that the pre viewing of the video that the camera was hand held and not a helmet cam which I missed or forgot when I heard of the Videos was lulled into head cam.
So the clip on is probably a better description.
PNF employees did they have more than 1 camera or 1 person had 2?????
Reply to Bob Powers post on November 16, 2014 at 5:40 pm
>> Bob Powers said…
>>
>> So the clip on is probably a better description.
Yes.
When we find out exactly what it was ( and we most surely WILL )… I believe it will turn out to just be that Hulburd had a ‘Helmet Adapter’ for this particular camera or smartphone…but it is not marketed or branded as an ‘official’ ‘Helmet Camera’
>> Bob Powers also wrote…
>>
>> PNF employees did they have more than 1 camera
>> or 1 person had 2?????
Good question.
The original InvestigativeMEDIA FOIA request sent directly to Prescott National Forest ( and then forwarded immediately by PNF to their ‘parent company’… the US Forestry Service ) was specifically requesting ‘Helmet Camera Videos’ taken by any PNF employee.
Somebody at Prescott National Forest screwed up, it seems, when they forwarded the FOIA request and then the ‘letter or receipt’ from USFS to InvestigativeMEDIA said it understood the request to be for ALL VIDEO ( not just Helmet Camera Video ) from anyone who worked for Prescott Forest.
Keyword here ( in both cases ) is VIDEO.
There are no PHOTOGRAPHS in this latest ‘evidence dump’.
Just VIDEO… as USFS understood the original request to be.
So God knows how many actual PHOTOGRAPHS they ( USFS ) might have that were taken by these same men ( The Prescott Three ) with the same cameras.
It’s not credible that these men would have had cameras with them that day ( as we know they did ) and not have been USING them.
Everyone else was.
Someone needs to issue a separate FOIA for ‘All photographs taken at the Yarnell Hill Fire by any employee of the Prescott National Forest’.
This is like pulling teeth.
These people aren’t going to just ‘come clean’.
They are ONLY going to ‘give up’ something when the FOIA request specifically targets what they have in their possession.
By the way… a long time ago ( shortly after I first identified the shooter of the original MAYDAY footage as Aaron Hulburd, and the other two men in the video as Jason Clawson and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell ) and I then discovered that all three of them were these Bea Day Type 2 team off-the-radar hires and that they all worked for the Prescott National Forest…
…I got tired of constantly typing…
Jason Clawson, Aaron Hulburd and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell.
So I decided to give myself a break and just call them…
“The Prescott Three”.
I think I’m going to change that and just start calling them…
“The Three Prescotteers”
( LOL… I told you it was going to take some humor to get this latest round of USFS / AZF bullshit ).
Bingo!
And you do know that Prescott is pronounced like Biscuit, don’t you?
Press-kit. NOT Press-cot.
That’s really important to know.
So it’s The Three Press-kiteers.
OK, time for me to go back to bed, obviously.
Of course, it’s still spelled the same.
This pronunciation thing is just for when we are interviewed by major mainstream media.
Good Morning!!
Hope this week goes better than last week!
Altho some people who are really into video don’t do a lot of photography.
Why bother?
Videographers are capturing, most essentially, MOTION.
You can always pull a still out of a video.
I think Chris was way more into capturing stills than video.
I think, similarly, Aaron may have been way more into capturing motion than stills.
And regarding Chris and stills.
A lot of us who have “cut our teeth” in photography are still uncomfortable shooting video. We tend to be all perfectionistic when it comes to images, and have honed our skills to do that,
and video is truly a “horse of a different color.”
To get really good video requires a whole different set of technical skills.
So we are way more comfortable shooting stills than video.
I think Aaron might have been totally fine with just shooting video.
Copy ( all ) that…
…but I was actually agreeing with Mr. Powers.
It is perfectly possible that ALL THREE of the “Prescotteers” had cameras with them.
We still don’t know the full 411 on these guys… what they might ahve had with them that day… or even who the hell was giving them any ‘assignments’ or whether they were truly just ‘freelancing’ all over Yarnell that day.
In these videos just released… they really do just look like ‘tourists’ hanging around and ‘watching’ everyone else ‘do things’.
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell was actually barking some orders at people from time to time ( Like ‘Hey Charlie… you need to be at the head of the column” )… but you can tell that was just him. He’s a Type A personality. Finds it hard to be quiet.
But we still have no idea what AUTHORITY these guys had to be telling ANYONE who was officially on the Arizona State Forestry Division payroll to be doing anything that day.
I have looked carefully for any ‘cameras’ clipped to the belts or in the pockets of KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Jason Clawson… and I don’t see anything visible… but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have them.
Example: Not only do we seem to actually SEE Jason Clawson talking on a ‘smartphone’ as his vehicle crosses the Panebaker camera setup headed for Yarnell…
…there were MANY individual phone calls that day directly between Jason Clawson and Darrell Wills from the time Clawson arrived… up to… and beyond the deployment.
So it’s pretty safe to say Clawson DID have a ‘smartphone’ with him that day.
Did he take any pictures ( or video ) with it?
We still can’t be sure he did NOT.
“…there were MANY individual phone calls that day directly between Jason Clawson and Darrell Wills from the time Clawson arrived… up to… and beyond the deployment.”
Is that from Willis’ interviews/unit log?
I’m wondering if, since Bea Day, the Type 2 LONG Teams Incident Commander was actually there, that she might have been “assigning” her people to their tasks?
There was so much confusion going on with this.
And, yes about the Prescotteers most likely having other imaging in their possession.
Marti Reed says
November 16, 2014 at 5:04 pm
Awesome! Thanks!
>> Marti said…
>>
>> As soon as I looked at your post and saw that list of files, my
>> brain went “Click.” I thought, “That CAN’T be the original
>> filenames….”
Here is something else to consider ( and something I am still putting a stopwatch on here and will report about soon ).
Again… the filenames for these first 3 videos ( as released ) are…
0630131532
0630131533
0630131534
All THREE of these videos are EXACTLY 29.8 seconds long ( give or take a few hundreths of a second ).
So… we are supposed to believe the following…
NOTE: For the sake of just explaining what I’m about to explain, I am going to assume what I established above is correct… that it was Aaron Hulburd operating this camera for these 3 videos and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell was busy actually driving his red-fendered UTV… and Jason Clawson was also busy actually driving his olive-colored UTV.
Aaron shoots the FIRST 29.8 second long 0630131532 video.
The ‘second hand’ of the clock was somewhere between 1532 and 1533 and that’s why the filename is timestamped the way it is… at 1532.
Aaron then pauses NO MORE than 30 seconds before he then starts shooting the SECOND 29.8 second long 0630131533 video.
The ‘second hand’ of the clock is now between 1532 and 1533… hence… the 1533 filename suffix.
Once again… Aaron then pauses NO MORE than 30 seconds before he then starts shooting the THIRD 29.8 second long 0630131534 video.
The ‘second hand’ of the clock is now between 1533 and 1534… hence… the 1534 filename suffix.
Sounds GOOD, right? Sounds perfectly POSSIBLE, right?
Well… here is the NEWS FLASH.
It appears ( based on what is actually being filmed ) that there are MORE than 30 seconds of actual real-life separation in the parts of reality that lie in-between the videos.
That means ( since each video is already 29.8 seconds long ) that if there were MORE than just 30.2 seconds of reality happening in-between the videos themselves… then it is not possible for the filenames to be the way they are.
It is actually looking like the real-time separation between the end of the SECOND video and the start of the THIRD video had to be even a little more than SIXTY seconds ( perhaps more )… based on the ACTUAL movement of the men and the truck that is coming forward on the road.
If that turns out to be the case… then there is NO WAY that THIRD 29.8 second video could possibl have a timestamped filename of 0630131534.
It would have HAD to have been at least a minute LATER than 1534
and looked something like 0630131535 or (perhaps) 0630131536.
Still figuring this out ( with a stopwatch, Google Earth, and some software ).
More later.
Shoot… I mis-typed something in ‘Step 4’ above.
I hope it was obvious that was a typo.
That ‘step’ should have been…
The ‘second hand’ of the clock is now between 1533 and 1534… hence… the 1533 filename suffix.
**
** TIME FOR A NEW CHAPTER?
This is just a ‘heads up’ to everyone.
I think this Chapter might be exceeding the limits of the WordPress software again.
Some ‘orphaned comments’ are starting to appear in weird places… such as the follwing from ‘mike’ that somehow is now appearing at the very BOTTOM of this Chapter and not where it was intended to appear…
—————————————————
On November 15, 2014 at 4:41 pm, mike said…
Did not know that about Brown.
Checked and he a cat 1 racer – i.e. VERY elite.
Believe me, he is in shape.
—————————————————
If a comment doesn’t seem to appear… check the very BOTTOM of this Chapter.
‘Orphanded’ comments can often appear WAY down there when WordPress is starting to go brain-dead because of too many messages.
Thanks John!!
Oops,
thanks wtktt!!
it’s definitely time for me to go do something else. Like watch an awesome dance performance!
Followup… I actually think it would make sense to start a new chapter that coincides with the latest release of ‘evidence’ from USFS.
We haven’t even really begun to fully analyze it and it would make sense to start a new chapter for that.
Just thought I’d let you know I provided all that fluff down below to help move this process along.
It is, in TRUTH (cough cough) the ONLY reason I did it.
As I told Mr. Powers below when he jokingly said he thought M2U just stands for ‘Me To You’… it’s gonna take some humor to get through this latest round of bullshit ‘brought to you by’ the US Forestry Service ( and Arzizona Forestry ).
Thanks for providing some.
That sequence was HILARIOUS ( and actually spot-on ).
I worked on the Navajo Reservation.
That explains everything.
Survival Skilz.
Actually I worked for the Elders of the Big Mountain Sovereign Dine Nation.
Which explain even more about my Survival Skilz.
They were fighting Congress.
In response to “Methods,” the videos with the “R” at the end of them are “redacted,” which explains why you can see them in different formats than you can with the other videos in that bunch (that apparently John Dougherty is only now getting). Meaning: when the USDA (which is the “parent” organization over the USFS) “redacted” (or blurred) parts of the videos with the “R” in the name, the USDA had to save those videos (the ones with the”R” in the names) in NEW file formats (as, say, Mp4 instead of whatever format they were in when Aaron took the video originally), which explains why you can therefore view them in different formats (or whatever the technical word is) than you can with the videos that do NOT have the “R” in the name.
Phrased differently, in order to “redact” or blur things out, the USDA had to save those videos – and only those videos (with the “R” in the name) – in a DIFFERENT format (which then allows you to view them differently, as you observed).
Sorry.
I can edit any frickin video I want to, in Lightroom or Photoshop, and save it in the original format, or any other format I CHOOSE to.
Reply to Method’s post on November 15, 2014 at 11:48 am
>> Method said…
>>
>> From my experience, no “helmet cams” have the ability to zoom.
>> These type of cameras are meant to capture action sports and
>> give a first person perspective, so they tend to have wide angle
>> lenses on them.
Exactly correct.
>> Method also said…
>>
>> I honestly don’t know what kind of camera Aaron was using.
Neither do we, at this point. Still trying to determine that.
As I said yesterday… even though the original MAYDAY footage that Arizona Forestry released back in December was called “The Helmet Cam Video”… Aaron’s camera might not have been an actual de-facto ‘Helmet Camera’ at all. In some of the newly released videos it is obvious that it was just clipped to his front shirt pocket like some of the newer ‘Body Cam’ cameras Police are using. It could have been just something that was able to CLIP to a Helmet Bracket… or a shirt pocket… or whatever.
>> Method also said…
>>
>> One thing that I did notice with the file names of the “newly” released
>> videos is that the ones that have a “R” at the end are viewable in
>> 1080p (HD) while the others without the “R” are only viewable in 480p.
>> My only explanation for this would be that Aaron was switching
>> between “low” and “high” quality mode or he was using two separate
>>cameras. Both explanations seem weird to me. Sorry if this info has
>> all ready been discussed.
Even though US Forestry has removed MOST of the EXIF metadata from ALL of these ‘copies’ of Hulburd material they released… it appears that SOME of the original EXIF data survived their copies and their conversions.
Here is a post I made yesterday down below in response to Mr. Powers which explains what I am seeing and coincides with what you, yourself have noticed about these ‘files’.
>> Bob Powers wrote…
>>
>> This was not the original videos so an assignment of
>> numbers could have come as the segments were copied
Yes. It’s possible.
Mr. Powers… what you are about to see is that there IS more evidence ‘lurking’ in these videos.
Even though what has been released are not ‘byte-for-byte’ copies of the originals and all the original DEVICE metadata has been purposely REMOVED from them… there are STILL some pieces of EXIF metadata that will survive most ‘conversions’ and ‘editing’.
One of those is the ‘original image size’, which can also give you a clue about the DEVICE that took the video.
MOST of the M2Uxxxxx video clips… even as they are sitting on Arizona Forestry’s YouTube channel… are showing a width/height dimension of 854 pixels wide by 480 pixels high.
854×480 is a pre-determined video dimension known as FWVGA
FWVGA = Full Wide Video Graphics Array.
However… any file in the AZF release that has had an ‘R’ added to the end of it ends up with a DIFFERENT video resolution.
All the files with an ‘R’ added seem to be in the 1280×720 format.
Also… the M2Uxxxx clips that have retained what appears to be the original FWVGA ( 854×480 ) formatting are also showing a sound codec handler named Lavf54.29.104…
…but the M2Uxxxx files in the release that have an ‘R’ added to the filename are simply showing a sound codec handler name of ‘Apple’.
So what the hell does all that mean?
It means that the ORIGINALS ( from Hulburd’s camera ) were probably shot with a device that uses the FWVGA 854×480 dimensions and the Lavf54.29.104 audio codec…
…but files that have been EDITED by US Forestry were edited on an
Apple computer and then ‘saved’ back to disk with an altered format
of 1280×720 and a reconvert on the audio track using Apple’s sound codec.
This does NOT mean that the ones still using the FWVGA 854×480 format and the Lav54.29.104 codec have NOT been altered.
They still might have been ‘truncated’ either at the start, or the end… or both… and still retained those settings of the orginal metadata.
It just means that it is perfectly obvious which files the US Forestry was editing manually and making actual CHANGES to the interior of the video before ‘saving’ the material back to disk… and that all these files they were EDITING were being done on an Apple computer.
Even if they hadn’t been adding that stupid ‘R’ letter to the ends of the filenames they are ADMITTING to altering… we would still have been able to tell which ones they were monkeying with on their Apple Computer.
The combination of the M2Uxxxxx file naming format ( which might mean it has to be a Sony-based Camera? ), the FWVGA 854×480 default video resolution, AND the fact that the device might be using the Lav54.29.104 audio codecs might all help tell us exactly what DEVICE Aaron Hulburd was using.
I am still checking on that. Stay tuned.
I still maintain that the US Forestry Service has still NOT lawfully complied with any legal FOIA request because we are not seeing the actual EXIF DEVICE information in these files.
You are allowed to make redactions and claim ‘exemptions’ under the FOIA rules… but you are still supposed to deliver ‘essentially identical’ copies of the material you have in your possession.
Removing MOST of the original EXIF data is still a no-no, legally speaking.
WARNING: I think WordPress is starting to go ‘brain dead’ again because of too many messages. My response to ‘Method’ above was supposed to be a new ‘parent’ comment and it has appeared here as a ‘Reply’ instead.
One of mike’s comments also just got ‘orphaned’ as well and somehow is only appearing at the very BOTTOM of this Chapter.
Time for Chapter TEN?
I actually think the release of the new footage ( and our current discussion of it ) would be a good ‘logical place’ to start a new chapter.
WTKTT—-For your info……….
The FS has some Highly qualified Information officers I use to work wit one he had quite a office where he could edit and work with all kinds of video arranging it into news releases or Forest information disks for release on many different
Forest projects.
So I am saying The FS has some very sophisticated equipment on many forests or in Regional offices that could edit an original or copy of an original Video
Mainly just for a heads up to you and Marti.
What we are seeing is an edited version of the original with what was selected to release I would bet on it. It was not as well done as it could have been and you are finding the flaws.
Keep digging the answer is there…………
Mr. Powers… thank you.
That is why it will be IMPOSSIBLE for the US Forestry service to claim that anything that happened here was any kind of ‘amateur hour’ mistake.
That is also why I took the time below to tell you that ‘story’ about how whoever did the ‘pixelation’ BLUR-OUT on the face of the driver of the white pickup was obviously VERY GOOD at that sort of thing.
If you trace that blur-out operation frame-by-frame… it’s obvious it was no slouch tasked with doing that. He/She makes NONE of the mistakes that most people would when attempting that sort of thing.
So they knew EXACTLY what they were doing.
There is no doubt about that.
WHY they were doing it ( and not completely fulfilling a valid, legal FOIA request )… is what remains to be discovered.
One thing to remember they are not the FBI or CIA
they are not proficient at this so they may well screw up don’t expect Einstein here.
Keep working at it.
Exactly.
Speaking of Non-Einstein matters…
If you read the letter that John Dougherty received from Tom Harbour ( Head of Fire Aviation as USFS and close co-worker of SAIT Co-Leader Mike Dudley ) regarding the CONTENTS of the FOIA package… Mr. Harbour states unequivocably that ONLY 4 of the 21 videos they are ‘delivering’ in fulfillment of the FOIA request have been ‘redacted’ in any way.
Mr. Harbour of USFS also gives valid explanations for the ‘redactions’ and exactly where they are in the videos that have an ‘R’ added to the filenames.
Okay. Fine. Whatever.
What that actually MEANS, then, is that there is absolutely no reason why the OTHER 18 videos should not be absolute byte-for-byte copies of Aaron Hulburd’s ORIGINALS, complete with all original EXIF metadata.
They aren’t.
It is all well and good that Tom Harbour and the USFS wanted to ‘get out ahead of the story’ and make arrangements with Arizona Forestry for THEM to host a web page containing ‘copies’ of these videos…
…but providing the same videos that have been simply prepared for uploading to YouTube is NOT the same as legally fulfilling a valid FOIA request.
So according to Tom Harbour himself… EIGHTEEN of the videos that should have been delivered to InvestigativeMEDIA should have been absolute byte-for-byte copies of what they originally received.
If they are NOT claiming they made ANY redactions whatsoever on these 18 other ‘original’ pieces of evidence… then WHERE are the byte-for-byte ‘original copies’ of them and WHY were they not already provided?
WTKTT asked: “If they are NOT claiming they made ANY redactions whatsoever on these 18 other ‘original’ pieces of evidence… then WHERE are the byte-for-byte ‘original copies’ of them and WHY were they not already provided?”
They WERE already provided.
Reply to Elizabeth post on
November 16, 2014 at 1:20 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> WTKTT asked: “If they are NOT claiming
>> they made ANY redactions whatsoever
>> on these 18 other ‘original’ pieces of
>> evidence… then WHERE are the
>> byte-for-byte ‘original copies’ of them
>> and WHY were they not already provided?”
>>
>> They WERE already provided.
To who?
The material sitting on YouTube is by no means byte-for-byte copies of the originals.
If they were… we would be seeing all the original EXIF metadata in the files.
We are NOT.
Mr. Dougherty has indicated that the material he has received on a DVD that is also supposed to be a valid (legal) fulfillment of his original FOIA request is nothing more than the same YouTube videos linked to on the Arizona Forestry website prior to the fulfillment of his request.
I would HOPE they actually sent Mr. Dougherty valid, legal, byte-for-byte copies of the material they have in their possession ( as they are supposed to )… but it doesn’t sound like that happened.
For anyone following this particluar thread… see above for continuation of this specific exchange.
The poster known as ‘Elizabeth’ came right back and said these ‘byte-for-byte original copies’ of the material USFS has in there possession were provided to HER.
We have give her the chance to prove what she said by simply telling us what some of the original EXIF data is from the files… or what FORMAT the original Hulburd video was in… but she refuses to even do those simple things.
It is most likely she is simply just LYING… but if she is NOT… then she has just given de-facto public testimony that the United States Forestry Service is violating Federal Law by ‘picking and choosing’ what to deliver in response to valid, legal FOIA requests depending on WHO the requestor is.
Stay tuned. More about this to come, I’m sure.
If the USFS really is violating Federal Law… I’m sure the mainstream media will be all over it.
Hope this goes where it’s supposed to.
I don’t know if you saw below where I asked if Aaron was even zooming.
So I quickly went back and looked at the first of the M2U’s (I’m totally unfamiliar with this format, and had never even heard of it til now).
He is, indeed, zooming in and out. That means there has to be a button or something (which kind of defeats the purpose of “Look Mom No Hands.”)
And it also means, I think, it’s something different from what police use for their hear/body cams.
The other thing that struck me while watching that video is the extremely high “resolution” of it, even though I was even only watching it in 360p. Usually I have to bump a youtube video up as high as I possibly can to get decent resolution, unless it’s shot with a really good camera.
I’ve watched lots of Ferguson livestreaming, and they use the best and the newest iphones, and their video isn’t as good as that one of Aaron’s.
It reminds me of when my daughter was doing her college junior year in France in 2007/2008 and she was photographing it all with her little 2-year old Nikon Coolpix and putting it all up on Facebook so I could show the pix to my dying father.
When I finally got the cd’s of the photos I was blown away. She was shooting at 3 megapixels (to save laptop hard-drive space) and the images were amazing! I’ve made 13×19 prints of them for her to sell, and the detail is stunning. Even her night photos.
I’m sure it was the lens.
So there’s that.
Also. I haven’t downloaded any of these videos. I decided to wait until JD put them in his dropbox. So I don’t know what the files look like.
You said:
“One of those is the ‘original image size’, which can also give you a clue about the DEVICE that took the video.
MOST of the M2Uxxxxx video clips… even as they are sitting on Arizona Forestry’s YouTube channel… are showing a width/height dimension of 854 pixels wide by 480 pixels high.
854×480 is a pre-determined video dimension known as FWVGA.”
So are you seeing something that says “Original Image Size” in the metadata?
Or are you going by the fact that the video you downloaded from YouTube is 854×480?
Hmm just googled 480p and it is usually 720×480 so I guess that does look like 854×480 is unique.
This stuff is really new territory for me.
Now I not only need to agonize over what kind of smartphone to get, but what kind of head/whatever cam to get.
Personally, I want a gopro and a drone for Christmas.
Marti… as I told Mr. Powers in a comment above… the thing to really focus on here is WHY USFS has NOT provided ‘byte-for-byte’ copies of at least the 18 video clips they claim have NOT been ‘redacted’ in any way.
That letter Mr. John Dougherty got explaining what was GOING to be sent in fulfillment of InvestigativeMEDIA’s FOIA request was signed by Mr. Tom Harbour.
Tom Harbour is the de-facto HEAD of Fire Aviation at the United States Forestry Service. He and SAIT Co-Lead Mike Dudley have worked together for almost a decade now… and many of Mr. Tom Harbours USFS memos and documents are actually co-signed by Mike Dudley ( but not the letter sent to John Dougherty ).
Mr. Harbour states in no uncertain terms that only FOUR of the 21 videos have had ‘redactions’ applied. He does, in fact, say that these files have an ‘R’ added to the filenames and ( in the letter ) he DOES give valid reasons why the redactions were being applied to these FOUR videos.
Fine. Whatever.
That leaves EIGHTEEN video files that should be absolute byte-for-byte copies of the originals… complete with ALL original EXIF metadata.
Preparing files for a YouTube channel and then releasing THOSE files in response to an FOIA request is NOT a valid, legal response to that FOIA request.
I really think this has to be pursued.
If Mr. Harbour is telling the truth… then there is NO REASON why 18 of those 21 videos should not be byte-for-byte copies of Hulburd’s originals.
I think we WILL find out exactly what kind of camera Aaron Hulburd was using that day… but that still won’t produce byte-for-byte copies of his originals.
Someone is going to have to ‘challenge’ what was released and take the stance that the FOIA request has NOT been legally fulfilled ( yet ).
Exactly.
Anybody want to lay bets on whether it will be JD or AZCentral who does it first?
Reply to Elizabeth post on November 15, 2014 at 5:37 pm
>> Elizabeth wrote
>>
>> Phrased differently, in order to “redact” or blur things out, the USDA had
>> to save those videos – and only those videos (with the “R” in the name) –
>> in a DIFFERENT format (which then allows you to view them
>> differently, as you observed).
They most certainly did not HAVE to do that… just because they were adding even legitimate ‘redactions’ like blurring out a citizen’s face, blocking a phone number in the audio, or ‘blacking out’ images of the deployment site.
They CHOSE to do it.
USFS has CHOSEN to release copies of the videos that are NOT ‘original copies’ with all the EXIF metadata still present in the files.
This is actually a violation of the rules of FOIA… and no one should consider their original FOIA requestes to have been properly ( and legally ) fulfilled yet.
Also… I covered all this yesterday. You must have missed it.
See above ( or below ).
WTKTT said: “Also… I covered all this yesterday. You must have missed it.”
You must have missed Mart’s post – I was responding to a post that Marti made in which she quoted “Methods” as seeming confused about why the “R” videos were different. Because I have some of the metadata, I could clarify… so I did. 🙂
I think you missed the point.
I want to pull this discussion up to the top again, because it’s way down in the stream.
Methods says
NOVEMBER 15, 2014 AT 11:48 AM
”
From my experience, no “helmet cams” have the ability to zoom. These type of cameras are meant to capture action sports and give a first person perspective, so they tend to have wide angle lenses on them. I honestly don’t know what kind of camera Aaron was using.
One thing that I did notice with the file names of the “newly” released videos is that the ones that have a “R” at the end are viewable in 1080p (HD) while the others without the “R” are only viewable in 480p. My only explanation for this would be that Aaron was switching between “low” and “high” quality mode or he was using two separate cameras. Both explanations seem weird to me. Sorry if this info has all ready been discussed.”
Thanks! It makes sense to me now (DOH) that a helmet cam would not zoom. “Look ma, no hands!”
WTKTT wrote somewhere in this jumble of threads that he thought maybe the originals were a smaller format and the Rs were a larger format.
That, actually, didn’t quite make sense to me, except for that’s what “the evidence” shows in the metadata.
I know so little about video-editing or these kinds of cameras that I have no clue.
I’m actually really posting this here so WTKTT sees it so he can weigh in on what you are saying.
BTW I came across a youtube video that’s kind of an ad for two types of police headcams. It was interesting.
Here it is:
“Police Body Cams: Comparing the Vievu LE3 and Taser’s Axon”
http://youtu.be/q_3BV8YdQs4?list=PLTErVrHH6uJja-ljtn7z9Q5Sz9WtCPGw1
I have to say, all things considered, a police body-camera with the name Taser is not the best PR, IMHO.
But I found it interesting, given what WTKTT was realizing about how he didn’t think Aaron’s camera was a head/helmet cam, after all.
So these cameras wouldn’t zoom either.
Now that I’m thinking about it, are we sure Aaron was even zooming his lens? I can’t imagine, how you could do that. The whole point is “Look Ma, No Hands!”
Thanks for your help!
Marti… we must have pressed ‘transmit’ at the same time.
I was answering Method’s latest post as well and that information I was giving to Mr. Powers is reproduced up above.
Brilliant minds think………..similarly.
Unless they really really disagree.
Allow me to clarify two things for some of you:
1. Video M2U00264 cannot provide evidence of what the winds were doing at 4:22 p.m. because video M2U00264 was not recorded until AFTER 4:27.29 p.m. on June 30, 2013. (While I do not have my notes and the video metadata in front of me, I know at the very least that the M2U00264 video started AFTER the Yarnell Gamble video ended, which, off the top of my head, ended somewhere around 4:27.29-ish p.m.)
2. In the same video (M2U00264) that Marti cites as showing evidence of 30 or 40 or 45 mph winds from an alleged outflow boundary bringing winds from the N/NE, we hear Paul Musser – who most stellar WFFs in R-3 seem to view highly and who was actually supposed to be the IC for the YHF on the 30th (and who was also the highly-respected Supt. of Flagstaff Hotshots for many years, training some of the best WFFs of the current generation (according to those who know about such things), much, by the way, like Marty Rose, who also is viewed as being one of the best WFF trainers in R-3 at the time) – mentioning that his smartphone advises that the winds in Skull Valley are 40 mph. What Paul does NOT say at the end of his comment is “ALSO” or “TOO.” Paul makes his comment about the winds in Skull Valley in a way that suggests he is NOT feeling the same level of winds right there in the Shrine area. If you disagree, I’d be curious to know what you are hearing in Paul’s comments to suggest that I am misunderstanding Paul’s sentiment.
🙂
Okay… what the heck… just for entertainment’s sake… I’ll bite.
1) What is the significance of 4:22 PM to the extent that you are ‘hanging your hat’ on it?
If you are ( for some reason ) trying to get as close to 4:22 as possible… then please have a look at the actual YARNELL-GAMBLE video above again… and look closely at the TREES.
They are all blowing just as hard ( if not harder ) than the ones in Marti’s example video of what trees like that look like in 30 mph winds. Also please watch the ABC15 ‘Air15’ Helicopter footage again. They were over the fire from 3:59 PM to 4:39 PM. Pay close attention to what is happening on the GROUND in this Helicopter footage.
2) Just because Paul Musser does NOT add a single word to the end of his report about what is happening in Skull Valley… you are assuming no similar winds were blowing in Yarnell?
Seriously?
In the video in question… you don’t have to look to Paul Musser’s use of the King’s English to wonder if the wind was blowing in Yarnell. Just WATCH THE VIDEO ( and the ones that accompany it ).
Your argument is like saying if you are watching of a video of someone standing in the rain but they don’t SAY it’s actually raining where they are… then it must not be and the video is some kind of ‘illusion’.
And…….. yes.
“Is it……raining???” says one firefighter with a mystified voice.
“Yes, I think it IS!!” answered another, with an equally mystified voice.
And our counselor says,
“That CAN’T be true, I don’t see the rain falling in the video!”
“Is it NIGHT???” says one firefighter, in a mystified voice, as a massive amount of smoke and embers shrouds him, making him cough heavily.
Our counselor schools him, with a determined and patient “voice.” “Of course it’s not night! Let me explain. Listen up, and tell me if you think I’m making it a mistake. It’s only 4:31 in the afternoon. And are you, by any chance Fred? Because you are making a really dumb mistake!”
“And because you look like all those other Freds standing around you.”
And our counselor replies to Marti Reed:
“And, Marti, please review the video. The one asking “Is it NIGHT???” is not the same firefighter who is coughing. You really need to get your facts straight”
To which Marti Reed replies:
“I think you’re missing the point.”
Of course this whole potentially disastrous and unfit for general consumption (much less those poor FAMILIES) mix-up in communications is directly caused by WantsToKnowTheTruth who, at exactly 10:05 PM on NOVEMBER 15, 2014, who in TRUTH wrote:
“Okay… what the heck… just for entertainment’s sake… I’ll bite.”
And, of course everybody that’s anybody in Region 3 knows WTKTT is actually Fred, along with RTS, TTWARE, SR, FF+20, and now, due to my extensive research, we also know Mike is also.
And they all know Fred is a trouble-maker.
And that High Priestess of the Weather Wizards, hmmmmm, I’m now beginning to suspect she’s Fred, too…..
I know this because I live in Region 3, AND I have a telephone!
I rest my case.
OK.
I get what you are saying about 4:22 (when Tyson’s log says winds from the west at 45mph), vs the winds in the video, which appear to me to be, basically 30-ish mph. Not 45, at that point.
We’re talking a plus/minus 5 minute difference.
I think that is realistic because of the topography.
Indeed the two videos Aaron took before 264 don’t show anywhere near as much wind, as far as I can see.
So we are looking at a wind that hit the Shrine area a teensy bit later (5-ish minutes) than it hit the Youth Camp.
That is totally not unusual, given the topography.
The Youth Camp is located in an area in which an east/west drainage (where the dozer line was put in connecting to Sesame) meets another drainage coming down from the north, and also meets another low area wrapping around the boulder hill to the north of where the crew was cutting brush to help create the line they were all thinking of burning out that night.
The area near the Shrine, where Aaron was filming, is further south, in a north/south drainage area, surrounded by trees on both sides. More protected.
The way wind works, it’s not programmable, or even. It’s partly seriously dictated by topography, regardless of what system, overall, is creating. It’s very dynamic.
Living in Albuquerque, where we often get these thunderstorms with powerful outflow boundaries, the air can be totally calm and then suddenly be blowing 60 mph and uprooting trees. It can be really freaky.
So it’s completely understandable that a wind event would hit the Youth Camp in such a way that Tyson would estimate it at 4:22 PM at 45 mph (probably partially based on possible earlier micro weather observations), and then hit the more southern and protected area five minutes (-ish) later at about 30 mph.
You seem to be concerned about the wind(s) being indraft (via the fire) vs outflow (via the thunderstorm). And thus you keep saying “alleged outflow.”
Quite frankly, I think we are looking at a chaotic combination of the two. The thunderstorm pushing down from the northeast would have, on a seriously oversimplified model, most likely have pushed outflow winds GENERALLY from the northeast to the southwest at this location. Which they did, causing the fire to stand up and then turn around and push the entire fire, ultimately towards the southwest, killing Granite Mountain and burning down Glen Ilah.
But this is not oversimplified on the ground, with a fire rotating clockwise, sucking those winds back up into it over complex topography. Which is, I think, the point you are trying to make. That’s also why, I think, Tyson recorded the winds as being from the west.
I’ve been wondering myself, it that storm was pushing outflow winds, essentially, to the southwest, which I think it was, why is Tyson recording them out of the west, and, although it’s really hard to tell, that seems to be what is happening in the video.
Basically, I think the whole thing we are seeing is a really complex extreme wind/fire event that’s also being shaped by the topography. It’s not an either/or.
It’s extreme fire behavior coupled with a thunderstorm coupled with topography.
OK, dad, I hope I got that right.
Marti the Weather Girl
A Fire Weather Schooling on Local factors and the influence of Thunderstorms.
Calm to extreme winds from many directions.
“Is it raining????” said one firefighter.
“Yes, I think it is!!!” said another.
**
** MORE ABOUT THE FIRST THREE ( NEWLY RELEASED ) VIDEOS
Here is some more information about the first THREE videos that were part of the 21 just released by the US Forestry Service.
It still seems they are NOT actually from Aaron Hulburd’s specific ‘Helmet Camera’ ( or whatever kind of camera he was actually using that afternoon to shoot all those other M2U00xxx videos )… but it DOES appear they WERE taken by Aaron Hulburd with the other two of the ‘Prescott Three’. ( Jason Clawson and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell ).right there next to him ( in their UTVs ).
Here is why.
In other photos and videos from the fire… we can definitely see ( and have verified ) that the VEHICLES that Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell were driving were all ‘staged’ there on the side of the road just a few hundred yards south of the Incident Command Post there at the Model Creek School in Peeples Valley…
…but they are not IN the vehicles and the two UTVs are GONE from the trailers attached to Clawson and Yowell’s pickup trucks.
So they were out ‘bombing around’ on the fire somewhere when those other photos and videos captured their vehicles ‘staged’ there by the ICP.
As it turns out… this ‘burnout operation’ represented in the new ‘first three’ videos is where they actually seemed to have gone in their UTVs.
At exactly +27 seconds in the SECOND of these first three videos ( Video 0630131533 ), The ‘roll-cage’ and back storage section of a UTV suddenly slips into view in the very bottom left corner of the video.
Only KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s UTV ( with the red hood and fenders ) had a roll-cage.
Jason Clawson’s UTV had no such roll-cage ( at least not on that day ).
So whoever is shooting this video ( 0630131533 ) of that in-progress burnout operation up there on Model Creek Road was standing in the middle of the road… but also standing NEXT to this UTV with the roll-cage that we can now see was right there next to him.
At the very end of this video… you can even see the Nomex-shirt ( elbow? ) of whoever was standing to the cameraman’s LEFT briefly come into view. So that is proof that there was at least one other person ( with a Nomex shirt on ) standing to the LEFT of whoever was filming this particular video.
In the NEXT video with filename 0630131534 ( the THIRD of these first 3 videos in the new release )… the camera is now MOVING BACKWARDS as it films the men conducting more of the burnout operation.
The camera perspective is now from the RIGHT-CENTER of the road, and not from DEAD-CENTER in the road like the other two videos that precede this one.
At exactly +13 seconds into this THIRD video ( 0630131534 )… we again suddenly see part of the same UTV seen in the previous video to the LEFT of the camera… and it, too, is now ‘creeping forward’ on the road.
However… THIS time… we actually do see the RED FENDERS of the UTV which means it was most probably KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s UTV. I haven’t actually seen ANY other UTVs on the fire that day that had a RED hood and RED fenders like Yowell’s did.
Some of the GEAR that is in the back of this RED-fendered UTV also matches what can be seen later on in other views of Yowell’s UTV over on Shrine Road in the M2U00xxx video series.
But there is more.
At the very END of this video… just for a moment… we seem to ALSO see the fender of Clawson’s all-olive-drab UTV come into view in about the mid-left-center-bottom of the video as the ‘movement’ of the camera actually also seems to ‘pick up speed’ a little.
Seems to be proof that BOTH of the ‘Prescott Three’ UTVs were actually right there up on Model Creek Road… with Jason Clawson actively driving his and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell actively driving his… so that only leaves Aaron Hulburd with ‘hands free’ to be the one filming the burnout.
So here is what I think all this proves…
1) After Jason Clawson and KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell unloaded their UTVs from their trailers up there where they were parked near the ICP… all 3 of ‘The Prescott Three’ headed up to the Model Creek Road area in the TWO UTVs.
2) Once there… Aaron Hulburd exited KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s RED-fendered UTV and was then standing in the middle of the dirt road and began filming this ‘burnout’ operation coming TOWARDS them.
3) In the SECOND video… Yowell and his RED-fendered UTV ( with roll-cage ) was to Hulburd’s LEFT while he was filming down the road, and Jason Clawson’s all-olive-drab UTV ( with no roll cage ) was actually there to Hulburd’s RIGHT, but never comes into view in this video.
4) In the THIRD video… Hulburd has now SAT on the BACK of Jason Clawson’s UTV, and he is still filming the ‘burnout’ operation coming towards them… but now BOTH Yowell and Clawson are driving BOTH UTV’s slowly forward, side-by-side, in order to stay ahead of the approaching burnout operation. At the end of the video… Jason Clawson picks up speed a little and that is why we suddenly see the RED fender of Yowell’s UTV come into view for a moment. Clawson got a little ‘ahead’ of Yowell who was also creeping forward in his UTV on the LEFT side of the video and that’s when we see Yowell’s RED fender appear there.
This still doesn’t FULLY explain why these videos do NOT match the resolution of Aaron Hulburd’s other ‘Helmet Cam’ videos… or why these videos use a DATE/TIME stamp for a filename and the others ones use the M2U00xxx filename convention… but I think we can take a pretty darn good guess at that, now.
Aaron Hulburd had some OTHER device with him capable of shooting movies and THAT is what he was using to shoot these FIRST three videos that we can now see.
It also makes sense that it would be Aaron Hulburd filming this ‘burnout’ operation up there on Model Creek Road. He is a career ‘Fuels Specialist’ for the Prescott National Forest… and this ‘burnout’ is exactly the sort of thing he would be interested in recording on film. Yowell and Clawson were just driving the two UTVs at that point.
I do believe we ARE looking at least TWO different ‘devices’ used to shoot the video that has appeared in the latest ‘evidence dump’ from USFS… but they BOTH probably belonged to Aaron Hulburd.
So that begs a new question which is similar to the one that has finally ‘shaken loose’ these other ‘Helmet Cam’ videos.
Whatever OTHER ‘video/audio’ capable device Hulburd might have been using to shoot these ‘burnout operation’ videos… was that REALLY the ONLY time he shot any videos or captured any radio transmissions that day with THAT ‘other’ device?
That is what the new USFS release would have us believe… the same way they wanted us to believe that the original ‘Helmet-Cam’ MAYDAY footage was the ONLY time Hulburd used his Helmet-Cam that day, as well.
I do NOT trust the US Forestry Service ( or Arizona Forestry ).
There could still be MORE videos just from that ‘other’ device Hulburd appears to have been using that day to shoot the burnout operation on Model Creek Road.
As I originally said that it was NOT CREDIBLE that the original MAYDAY footage could have been the ONLY time a true-blue videophile like Aaron Hulburd would have actually USED his Helmet Camera that day ( and it turns out my instincts were correct )… I also do NOT believe that if Hulburd had another video/audio capable device with him that day that he would have ONLY used it that ONE time there on Model Creek Road.
** A WORD ABOUT THE ORIGINAL FOIA REQUEST AND WHAT ENDED UP ‘RELEASED’…
When ‘InvestigativeMEDIA’ issued that FOIA request directly to the Prescott National Forest it was specifically asking for ‘Helmet Camera Video’ that was taken by any PNF employee who had worked the Yarnell Hill Fire.
Prescott National Forest obviously then had an ‘Oh Shit’ moment… and they immediately FORWARDED this valid FOIA request on to their ‘parent company’, the US Forestry Service.
In the letter that InvestigativeMEDIA got back from the USFS that was basically just ‘acknowledging’ the receipt of the FOIA request originally directed to Prescott National Forest… something got ‘mixed up’ as per what the actual REQUEST was.
Here is exactly what the ‘letter of receipt’ from USFS said…
—————————————————————————–
Dear Mr. Dougherty:
This letter acknowledges receipt of your Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request dated October 20, 2014, which was received in the Washington Office (WO) FOIA Service Center, Office of Regulatory and Management Services on October 21, 2014.
You requested access to the complete, unedited video taken by Prescott National Forest firefighters on June 30, 2013 during the Yarnell Hill Fire.
(snip)
Sincerely,
/s/ Jeffrey Jasper for
GEORGE VARGAS
Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act Officer
( US Forestry Service Logo appears here )
—————————————————————————–
Notice that the letter of receipt no longer specifically says that the FOIA request is for ‘Helmet Camera’ video ( only ).
So that is why those first THREE videos were probably included in this specific response to InvestigativeMEDIA’s original FOIA request for ‘Helmet Camera Video’.
When it hit the USFS… the ‘Helmet Camera’ specific part of the request had gotten ‘lost in the translation’ so now the request ‘morphed’ into one that was requesting ALL video(s) that might have been shot by a PNF employee on the Yarnell Hill Fire.
So that’s why the other three ‘Non-Helmet-Camera’ videos also got ‘popped out of the darkness’ here and added to the beginning of the list of videos.
Whether or not this really is ALL of the ‘video shot by any PNF employee who was at the Yarnell fire’ still remains to be seen… but I think this proves WHY those other three Non-Helmet Camera videos probably ended up included in THIS release. They weren’t specifically what you could call ‘Helmet Camera’ videos… but they WERE videos taken by a PNF employee ( Hulburd ) in Yarnell on June 30, 2013.
** A WORD ABOUT THESE FILENAMES
I am feeling the need to mention something about the filenames for these first three videos in the 21 just released by USFS.
The filenames for these first 3 videos ( as released ) are…
0630131532
0630131533
0630131534
It is pretty much ‘normal’ for a lot of video/audio capable devices to use this
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE style format for auto-naming the files
being saved to the memory card.
That in no way really tells us exactly what KIND of device was being used.
However… something is still a little odd.
If any device is using this kind of DATE + TIME format for actually naming files…
it is bascially IMPOSSIBLE for it to really only have been…
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE
It pretty much HAD to have been at least…
MONTH + DAY + YEAR + HOUR + MINUTE + SECOND.
Here is why.
You can’t possible expect a file naming scheme for a photo/video capable device to work when it can’t stamp the filenames down to at least the SECOND.
Anyone could take multiple photos/videos within a one minute timeframe and you also cannot possibly ever have TWO filenames on a memory card ( or even a hard drive ) with the EXACT same filename(s).
So if that device really was never using the SECONDS value for the filename stamping… it would have also have had to have been able to distinguish files all taken within the same minute with some kind of NAMING convention like this…
0630131532
0630131532(1)
0630131532(2)
0630131532(3)
Etc…
EACH of these first THREE files in this latest USFS evidence dump are all mysteriously 29.8 seconds long ( to within a few hundreths of a second ), and that is still not possible to achieve with the human hand working a shutter button… but I also still have no good explanation for that.
We would need to know more about the actual device in use to know more about that and whether it indicates any kind of ‘tampering’ with the original videos.
But… I still get the feeling that we are not seeing the ACTUAL (original) filenames for these first 3 videos in the recent ‘evidence dump’.
Each video is 29.8 ( Call it 30 ) seconds long… but the timestamps are all on consecutive MINUTE values ( 1532, 1533, 1534 ).
In order to believe these filenames are all exactly the way they originally were on the device’s memory card… that means we also have to believe that Aaron Hulburd ( or whoever took them ) also PAUSED for ( at least ) 30 seconds in-between each video filmed, and never tried to shoot anything that had the same MINUTE value for a start time.
I guess that’s possible… but regardless… something still tells me we are still not seeing the SECONDS value of the original filenames… which means these filenames themselves have been (essentiallly) ‘altered from the originals’.
That would be even more reason to question whether this latest ‘evidence dump’ from USFS really represents the original material they have in their possession… and whether it is, in fact, a full legal fulfillment of a valid FOIA request.
** MORE ABOUT THE UTVS
The rest of this is just for completeness sake and shows how we CAN know what KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s and Jason Clawson’s UTVs really looked like.
The new M2U00xxx videos also finally give us better looks at the UTVs that belonged to KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and Jason Clawson that day… which has made it easier to identify them as the same ones that can seen for a few frames in the other 0630131532, 33 and 34 videos.
The M2U00267 video is 2 minutes and 18 seconds long.
At +1:36, Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell turn around and start walking backing EAST to where their 2 UTV’s are parked back in the actual St. Joseph Shrine parking log.
The rest of the video is just them walking all the way back to where theri UTV’s are parked and the closer they get… the better you can see the 2 (parked) UTV’s.
The one on the LEFT belongs to KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and is the one with the RED hood and fenders on it. It has BOTH a roll-cage and a windshield frame on it. It is also the one with two front seats and the one that Aaron Hulburd also travels when they all move around.
The UTV on the RIGHT is Jason Clawson’s. It appears to be pretty much the same make/model as Yowell’s with identical front grill and headlights, but it does NOT have either a roll-cage or a windshield frame installed ( at least not on that day ). It is all olive-drab. It also appears to have some ‘gear’ in the front which would make it hard for two people to travel in it… so that is probably why Aaron Hulburd was always traveling in the other UTV with Yowell whenever they were ‘moving around’ in these UTVs that day.
At about +2:09 or +2:11 ( in video M2U00267 ) is the best closeup view of BOTH of these UTVs sitting side-by-side.
When they reach the 2 UTV’s… KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell moves towards the one on the left ( with the red fenders ) to get into the driver’s seat.Aarron Hulburd ( still filming ) is right behind Yowell and gets very close to him at this point and this is when you can clearly see that Hulburd’s camera has NOT been mounted on his Helmet for this video.
The camera lens is actually at about the same height as Yowell’s right elbow… which means it was probably clipped to Hulburd’s front shirt pocket while he was filming this M2U00267 video.
So whatever Aaron Hulburd was using to shoot these M2U00xxx videos that have come to be known as the ‘Helmet Cam’ videos probably wasn’t an actual brand-name Helmet Camera at all.
It is more likely it is just a device that is easily CLIPPED to things like a Helmet Bracket, or a short pocket, or whatever.
It it still important to know exactly WHAT device that was… what KIND of EXIF metadata SHOULD have been present in the video files themselves… and why NONE of that metadata has been included in what was supposed to be a valid fulfillment of a fully legal FOIA request.
Wow… I think WordPress really is starting to go brain-dead again.
That ENTIRE comment up above with new information about the first 3 newly released videos was NOT supposed to appear where it did.
It was submitted as a new ‘parent comment’ and just somehow showed up here as well.
See above for the ‘parent comment’ version of this same posting with better formatting.
That’s why I’m no longer posting anything of substance here until the new chapter comes up.
I’m glad I got to go to an awesome dance performance before writing that.
And, I think what was happening over the west edge of the fire, as Granite Mountain was hiking down into their doom in that bowl full of explosive fuels, was even more complicated than what was happening over Shrine Road and the Youth Camp.
And was all this complicated fire/weather/topography PREDICTABLE?
IMHO a resounding YES and NO!!
There you have it from the High Priestess of the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta Weather Wizards.
Marti… see below.
The atmospheric scientists at the University of Arizona were actually ‘up early’ on Sunday morning, June 30, 2013 and doing what they do.
Running computer models.
One of them predicted EXACTLY what was going to happen… right to within the HOUR of when it actually came to pass.
NONE of those ‘computer models’ ever made it through proper channels ( that day ) to the people who really needed to know about it… such as Arizona Forestry Dispatch.
So, did I get it right?
Yes I did!
Thanks dad!
Somebody needs to actually really investigate this fire.
Well… from a meteorological viewpoint… people HAVE.( and given its HISTORIC nature… will continue to do so ).
The following is just ONE ( excellent ) professional report on what really happened that day. I’ve never seen so many detailed images, maps, charts and explanations about what happened that day all in one place…
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-yarnell-hill-fire-meteorological.html
From the article…
————————————————————-
The Yarnell Hill Fire: The Meteorological Origins
This morning I took a look at the meteorology associated with the Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona on Sunday, and the more I dug into it, the more disturbed I got. You will see why as I explain.
From what I can glean from news reports, the fire blew up around 4-5 PM Sunday (June 30th). A nearby observation site (RAWS station) was located about 5 miles away. The observations, shown below, indicates a profound wind shift from south to north around 5 PM associated with a sudden increase of wind gusts to just over 40 mph. Solar radiation dropped rapidly at the same time, indicating a sudden increase in cloudiness.
The origin of this sudden increase in wind is clear: outflow from a line of convection (thunderstorms) that had developed during the preceding hours and which was moving to the southwest. Here are some satellite images for the hours preceding and during the terrible accident (the circle indicates the location of the fire).
( Series of Satellite images… all explained in detail ).
( snip )
There is often an outflow of cooler air moving away from convection…the leading edge is known as a gust front (see figure). Downdraft air from thunderstorms spread out as it hits the surface, producing strong winds. It appears that there was such strong outflow from this convection that caused the winds to shift rapidly from southerly to northerly and to increase suddenly in speed (to 43 mph at the nearby station).
A measure of the potential for strong downdrafts and gust fronts is something called downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE). The sounding at Flagstaff has values of around 1600 J per Kg, which is very high (anything above 1000 can produce strong downdrafts).
(snip)
So it is apparent what occurred ..first the winds were from the south, followed by a rapid shift of 180 degrees, sudden increase of winds to over 40 mph, and the fire blew up and reversed direction.
(snip)
You can see why I find this disaster so unsettling. Hours before the incident it was clear there was a real threat…satellite and radar showed developing convection to the north that was moving south towards the fire. High-resolution numerical models showed a threat. Were there any meteorologists working the fire? If not, why not? This terrible tragedy needs to be reviewed carefully.
A number of media outlets called the strong winds unpredictable and random. This is not correct, as shown by the information I provided above.
————————————————————-
Followup…
The really SAD part, as well… is that not only do post-fire examinations of the conditions prove that everything that happened was perfectly predictable that day…
…it was all also perfectly predicted THAT MORNING… by meteorologists at the Universty of Arizona who were ‘up early’ that morning and doing what they do… running computer models.
The computer models ( that morning ) got it ‘right’ to within one hour of what actually ended up happening.
Sadly… this information never made it out to Arizona Forestry that day.
The USATODAY news article where this was first reported…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/02/yarnell-hill-fire-investigation/2483571/
From the article…
———————————————————-
The weather combined with fuel loads to create a deadly combination.
Meteorologists at the University of Arizona in Tucson ran models the morning of the fire predicting to within an hour the terrifying conditions the hotshots would confront.
“One model showed 45-knot (52 mph) winds and rapidly changing wind direction. It is a worst-case scenario for firefighting. They were the most dangerous conditions you could have in Arizona,” said research meteorologist Mike Leuthold at the university’s Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
In the real world, winds from the southwest were gusting at 15 to 25 mph at 4:01 p.m. PST Sunday at the monitoring station near the blaze. An hour later, winds were gusting at 30 to 47 mph from the northeast.
The worst was coming. During the monsoon — a meteorological event that happens during the summer throughout the Southwest — the searing desert temperatures force columns of hot air high into the atmosphere, Leuthold and National Weather Service meteorologists said.
The higher these plumes climb, the more chance they have for lifting embers and dispersing them widely. They also increase the chance of dry lightning strikes.
On Sunday, meteorologists measured the thermals as high as 22,000 feet, halfway through the atmosphere. The readings were among the highest they’d ever seen. In early fire reports, lightning was blamed for starting the Yarnell Hill Fire on Friday. And in Rim Country and near Prescott, the thunderstorms bring massive downdrafts of air — pushing huge gusts of air and reversing winds.
That’s exactly what happened Sunday.
Brian Klimowski, the National Weather Service’s meteorologist in chief in the Flagstaff division, said local topography could channel winds into even stronger gusts, making fire behavior more unpredictable.
The Weather Service provides twice-daily fire weather forecasts for each region. In large fires, the service also provides spot forecasts for specific fire locations upon request.
Firefighters did make forecast requests for the Yarnell Hill Fire, which Klimowski’s team updated twice a day, he said. In addition, the Weather Service also called firefighters twice Sunday afternoon warning about the likelihood of thunderstorms and high winds.
—————————————————————-
So it is known that ‘regular weather reports’ were being delivered… but somehow the actual ‘computer model’ that was done that morning was never fully passed on to the people who needed to know about it.
It was RIGHT ( to within the hour ) about EXACTLY what was going to happen.
“Meteorologists at the University of Arizona in Tucson ran models the morning of the fire predicting to within an hour the terrifying conditions the hotshots would confront.”
That’s really, really sad.
Hmm. I hadn’t seen THIS one. Thanks!
“Brian Klimowski, the National Weather Service’s meteorologist in chief in the Flagstaff division, said local topography could channel winds into even stronger gusts, making fire behavior more unpredictable.”
That’s what I meant by, Was it predictable? YES and NO.
You can predict, generally, what’s going to happen. They ran a NUMBER of models. That’s how you get the PROBABILITIES.
The topography shapes it on the ground, the localized micro-effects. That’s what you can’t predict from that kind of modeling.
You can’t predict that at 4:22 the wind would be blowing through the Youth Camp from the west at 45 mph.
You can’t predict that it would take five more minutes for the wind to be blowing through the tops of the trees at about 30 mph as Aaron filmed them from the Shrine.
You can’t predict exactly when the wind, as the fire is rotating through that topography, would turn the fire the additional 30 degrees or so that it took to blow the fire right up the bowl at the exact time it spared “main street” Yarnell (where it was headed about ten minutes before that, and hit Glen Ilah, instead.
You can’t predict when the fire, pushing right toward the Incident Command Post at Model Creek School, will turn just enough to spare the Post and start burning more eastward to threaten the homes on Sickles Road, so that you have to scramble a bunch of last-minute resources to get them down there in time to work with retardant drops.
But you CAN predict, after observing the fire and the general topography from the air, as Bravo 3 did at around noon, that, given the most-likely combination of monsoon weather plus topography, that combination would EASILY cause the fire to change direction, and start burning UPHILL, finally, towards Yarnell “that afternoon.”
Also, did you catch that little nugget about the NIMO? That’s the first I ever read about THAT.
“The investigative team will consist of up to 10 people recruited from around the country from local, state and federal agencies, she [Carrie Dennett AZF] said.
The group will include a team leader, a fire-behavioral analyst who can describe how a fire accelerates, a fire-operations specialist, a safety specialist and a person to document the information, said Judith Downing of the U.S. Forest Service. A report will be published when the work is finished.
Downing, who arrived Monday in Arizona with a seven-member National Incident Management Organization team to assist in the operation, said the investigation will be independent.
“Our role is not to do the investigation,” Downing said. “Our role is to provide support to the state.””
I wonder if “assisting” included sitting the BR Hotshots down in a room and having them fill out their unit logs and gathering up, while interviewing the Peeples Valley Crew, the cd with the photos and videos Brandon took,
Ahem. Nothing to see here!
And I would LOVE to be able to predict exactly what ADOSH is going to do next.
Actually, that’s the article from which I first got my understanding of what happened.
You wrote:
“You can see why I find this disaster so unsettling. Hours before the incident it was clear there was a real threat”
Heck, the photos of the “fire on the mountain” the night before “the incident”, which everybody in Yarnell was watching, made it clear there was “a real threat”!
Obviously Marti I would graduate you from Fire Weather 101
But you are qualified to teach it…
And yes all fore have a meteorologist assigned to the Fire
can’t remember his name from earlier but he sent the afternoon report predicting the increased activity no surprise on fire weather info some did not heed it.
Yes. That was Byron Kimball, the Fire Behavior Analyst.
They didn’t have a Fire Weather Meteorologist (I forget the technical IMT title).
Type 2 SHORT teams don’t include one of them.
Reply to Marti Reed post on
November 16, 2014 at 8:07 am
>> Marti said…
>>
>> You wrote:
>>
>> “You can see why I find this disaster so unsettling.
>> Hours before the incident it was clear there was
>> a real threat”
>>
>> Heck, the photos of the “fire on the mountain” the
>> night before “the incident”, which everybody in
>> Yarnell was watching, made it clear there
>> was “a real threat”!
And Darrell Willis’ own Unit Log entries between 1:30 AM and 3:30 AM prove that he was noting how ACTIVE the fire was… even at that hour of the morning.
In his 3:30 AM entry Willis also acknowledges first hearing that a ‘team’ was being put together and he was informed they would all be arriving in about 3 1/2 hours ( 7:00 AM )… but no one there in Yarnell overnight really seemed all that concerned about what TYPE of team it was… or whether it was going to be adequate… or whether this ‘highly active fire even in the middle of the night’ should have made any difference about the horsepower of the TEAM being ordered up for the next day.
Also… just for the record…
I think I messed up the reprint of that article up above.
The article is actually “quoted” all the way down to the dashed lines and not where I typed any (snip) markers.
I ( me, personally ) did NOT say…
“You can see why I find this disaster so unsettling.
Hours before the incident it was clear there was
a real threat”
That was actually still the professional meteorologist that was studying the fire talking there.
Even HE was astounded that more serious WARNINGS were not given out to the men who were in harm’s way that day.
Yes. Darrell was seriously concerned. Maybe that had to do with him keeping close touch with Jason, sensing the wrong decision had been made the night before, and knowing Bea’s team (which he was actually a part of) was having to come down to fill in all the holes they could.
Still bugz me, however, that, given that concern, he wasted all that time and resources defending what was, essentially an indefensible space.
That seems to me to be seriously non-strategic, all things considered.
And I have a hard time believing he didn’t hear that noon-ish B 3 communique to Rance that the fire was going to reverse itself that afternoon and head to Yarnell.
Especially since B 3 (and possibly also Air Attack Rory Collins before him) was communicating with him on Air To Ground regarding the retardant drops.
I think he most likely would have been, relatively speaking, prioritizing Air To Ground on his radio.
And also, that makes it make even more sense that the Three Prescotteers would have headed over to film what was essentially Darrell’s Firing Operation on Model Creek Road.
The 2:30 video was capturing radio coms related to Darrell’s operation at Double A Bar Ranch.
He was paying attention to what Darrell, a Bea Day Team OPS, was doing,
I bet Darrell was one of the very first people Jason got in touch with when he got to the fire.
I agree with everything you said here, but to me the emphasis is that none of this was that unusual, either. I experienced gusts of 50+ yesterday, for instance, and it doesn’t even make for good beer conversation because it’s part of life. And they changed direction from time to time. Storms roll off the rim there regularly that time of year. That storm rolled off almost exactly according to forecast, winds included. Extreme fire behavior is correct, but not extreme weather, unless one characterizes a normal, forecast storm that behaved as expected as extreme.
Exactly.
But see what I wrote above about what you CAN predict and what you CAN’T predict.
I have an old photo of my dad, sitting on a log in the Pecos Wilderness, where we were on horseback, staring at a thunderstorm developing over a ridge we had planned to cross to get back to our camp. He was trying to figure out whether we should stick to our plan, or go a different, lower, longer way. Which we did.
The next day, we rode over that ridge and found, right next to the trail, an exploded pine tree.
He told me that photo was of the moment, when he finally realized, after about 30 years of weather forecasting in the southwest, he couldn’t really predict the behavior of a thunderstorm in the southwest. It was all just too complicated.
That was also about thirty years after he flew planes in and out of typhoons in the Pacific in order to do the math in order to produce the calculations which are still used today to fly in and out of and around typhoons and hurricanes.
Actually, come to think of it, we used to have long irony-filled conversations about which was more unpredictable–weather behavior or people behavior.
We mostly agreed it was a draw.
Reply to Marti Reed post on November 15, 2014 at 2:18 pm
NOTE: This has been brought up down below from a thread running out of room.
>> Marti said…
>>
>> And too bad we don’t have those disappeared photos and videos
>> from the Peeple’s Valley Crew. I’m sure they tell a wind story, too.
Yes. It’s unfortunate. That is still all VERY important evidence and no one seems to have any idea WHO actually ‘collected’ it all and WHERE it all ever ‘disappeared’ to.
However… the evidence we CAN still ‘see’ from the Peeples Valley Firefighters who also almost lost their lives in Yarnell that day DOES, in fact… tell a ‘wind story’ of its own.
From the ‘Yarnell Hill Recovery Group’ page – ‘Our Stories’ section…
http://www.yarnellhillrecoverygroup.org/our_stories.html
Peeples Valley Firefighter Bob Brandon ( in his own words, and not
filtered through any reporter or media outlet )…
——————————————————————————————
I had an alarm that we had set up. I was going to turn the siren on and start pressing the siren so they could hear us, and that meant to abandon and come back and we’ll get out. Well, when I started the alarm, the Incident Commander for our area came pulling up, and he said, “I want you to get these trucks out of here.”
I says, “I can’t do that.”
He said, “You have to do it now.”
And I said, “No. There’s six men still like a mile out into the forest and they need to come back to this safe zone, because this is where they know it is.”
And he said, “No. I’m telling you to leave now.”
I told my lookout, I said, “Go to their trucks and put the keys in the ignition and start the trucks so when they come running out of the woods and they get to their truck they don’t have to look for their keys.”
He said, “We’re not going to leave,” and I said, “Yeah, we’re going to leave but we’re going to drive very slow.”
Well he didn’t want to and I told him, “We have to. This is what we have to do.”
The next instant, the fire dropped right over the top of us like a gigantic hand and everything around us was on fire. It was pitch black. Matt could not even see the hood of the truck. You could see nothing. And there were fires and fireballs and flames in every direction.
And I said, “Start driving very slow.”
I turned on all my lights and started driving very slowly down this little path back to the Shrine. That was approximately 2 ½ miles. So we were just picking our way, really slow hoping that somebody would get to us or see the truck and get in.
Well we drove all the way to the Shrine and about that time the Shrine was on fire. The hills were on fire around us and we met the IC and we told him that we’re not going any further.
We said, “We need to get our six men that are back there.” We didn’t have any radio contact with them because it was so loud. It was like being in the back of a jet aircraft on a runway.
So we were shouting at each other. About that time two Peeples Valley firefighters popped out through the black. And we got them over to the trucks and I said, “There’s still four more.”
So he jumped back up to his truck and went back up the road. And he was met with the ones coming out with their trucks. So we all did meet at the Shrine.
Our next point of deployment was to get to the Ranch House so we could make sure everybody’s safe. So we slowly drove our trucks to the Ranch House and met the congestion and confusion on Highway 89 with all the people being told to get out of town.
We were quite nervous at that. The winds were probably blowing between 40 and 50 mph, and we told them there’s not much for us to do. We made it to the Ranch House just when the fire came over the top of the highway by the Assembly of God Church and went up around the Ranch House.
So we started getting with the guys to fight the fire there. At that time, they were trying to set up a triage for anybody that got burned or suffered any trauma from this at the Ranch House, but the winds were just too great.
————————————————————————————–
Bob Brandan reports…
“The winds were blowing 40 and 50 mph”
“They were trying to set up triage… but the winds were just too great”.
** TONY SCIACCA WAS THE MYSTERIOUS ‘IC’ GIVING ORDERS TO BRANDON?
Also notice something interesting here.
We’ve never quite been able to identify who this mysterious ‘Incident Commander’ was who was telling Brandon to basically ‘abandon his own men’ and ‘get those trucks out of here now’.
We can NOW see… in the recently released Hulburd footage… that it is, indeed, ‘Big Dog’ Tony Sciacca standing right there ( in his white helmet ) alongside Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell in the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot.
Brandon recalls TWO encounters with this person that he was (apparently) mis-identifying as an ‘Incident Commander’. Brandon may have simply misunderstood who that was because he might have had a ‘white helmet’ on… which he hadn’t seen so far that day in that Youth Camp location, so he was assuming he was some kind of ‘Incident Commander’ for Yarnell.
Brandon describes his FIRST encounter with this ‘Incident Commander’ person as
“…the Incident Commander for our area came pulling up, and he said, ‘I want you to get these trucks out of here.’ ”
Brandon then describes the SECOND encounter with this (same) ‘Incident Commander’ person…
“Well we drove all the way to the Shrine and about that time the Shrine was on fire. The hills were on fire around us and we met the IC and we told him that we’re not going any further.”
So now Brandon is saying they ‘met’ this (same) IC person again right there in the parking lot of the St. Joseph Shrine after slowly driving the trucks out.
Well… according to the new Hulburd footage… that would be Tony Sciacca ( with his white helmet on ).
We can now SEE him ( Sciacca ) in the new Hulburd footage standing right there, exactly where Bob Brandon says he ‘met up’ with him in the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot.
So… another mystery solved ( perhaps )?
The mysterious ‘Incident Commander’ person described by Bob Brandon as the one telling him to move the vehicles and, essentially, ABANDON his own men was, in fact, none other than ‘Big Dog’ Tony Sciacca himself?
Hmmm. Interesting catch.
I’m gonna have to leave soon, but quick thoughts.
I still have a REALLY hard time imagining Tony Sciacca doing that. He’s just not that kind of person or Incident Commander. Seriously. He let 15K extra acres burn on the Slide Fire (amidst a great public hue and cry about that) so he could keep the fire-fighters safe instead of having them fight the fire in the canyons.
And I don’t remember anything in his interview (off the top of my head) about going all the way up to the Youth Camp. He said he was, basically, trying to get all the crazy civilians to get out of Shrine Road.
And, quite frankly, to be perfectly honest, I’m not totally trusting Brandon’s account. There are like, what, five different accounts of this thing?
Which one is the correct one? Who knows??
This was a crew that Gary Cordes ordered to begin evacuating at 3:50. Apparently, according to Brandon’s account, they didn’t do that.
I don’t know how we can say anything definitive about this with the conflicted stories that are out there.
Reply to Marti Reed post on November 15, 2014 at 5:49 pm
>> Marti said…
>>
>> I still have a REALLY hard time imagining Tony Sciacca doing that.
>> He’s just not that kind of person or Incident Commander. Seriously.
I don’t know him. I can’t make statements like that one way or the other.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> He let 15K extra acres burn on the Slide Fire (amidst a great public
>> hue and cry about that) so he could keep the fire-fighters safe
>> instead of having them fight the fire in the canyons.
I know that you developed quite a high level of respect for this Sciacca guy when you were following his performance on that ‘Slide’ fire… but that was AFTER Yarnell. Maybe Yarnell itself is what caused him to be so cautious on ‘Slide’.
I would actually ASSUME it did. I mean… c’mon.
It’s not every day you are the designated Safety Officer on a fire… you show up LATE… and 19 men DIE on YOUR ‘Safety Officer’ watch.
It must have had SOME effect on him.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> And I don’t remember anything in his interview (off the top of
>> my head) about going all the way up to the Youth Camp. He
>> said he was, basically, trying to get all the crazy civilians to
>> get out of Shrine Road.
That’s why I included the word ‘perhaps’ up above as to whether this ‘mystery’ about the ‘Incident Commander’ *might* now have been solved.
In his ADOSH interview Sciacca DOES say he ‘drove up that canyon and saw the Granite Mountain Buggies’. and he seems to mention seeing them ‘parked’…
But this is all about TIMING.
If Sciacca drove ‘up that canyon’ BEFORE the actual vehicle evacuations, then that means he saw the Granite Mountain buggies where they were parked at the Youth Camp… and that DOES place him exactly where he needed to be to be the one barking those orders to Bob Brandon and basically telling him to abandon his own men.
Don’t forget there IS a photo of someone in a WHITE Helmet standing all the way back there where the Granite Mountain buggies were parked and he’s interacting back there with Frisby and Brown in the Polaris Ranger. We still don’t know who THAT ‘white helmet’ really is.
However… if what Sciacca means by ‘seeing the Granite Mountain buggies’ means he ONLY saw them on their way OUT… then maybe he really never did get any farther than where we now see him in Hulburd’s video standing there in the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot.
Only some more interviewing of Sciacca and/or the final appearance of some of that Peeples Valley evidence can really nail down who was really telling Bob Brandon to basically ‘abandon his men’.
If Sciacca was never back there at all… then WHO was the guy in the white helmet who we KNOW was ‘back there’ at the Youth Camp in that photo?
Anyway… here is exactly what Sciacca said to ADOSH about all this…
From page 15 of Tony Sciacca’s ADOSH interview…
——————————————————–
649 A: So when I – yeah, when I came around, trying to figure out who was in
650 Yarnell when that fire was coming there I wanted to see…
651
652 Q1: Right.
653
654 A: I pulled in. Sheriff had some evacuations going on.
655
656 Q1: Right.
657
658 A: And I drove up that canyon, that’s when I saw the Blue Ridge and the Granite
659 Mountain buggies.
660
661 Q1: Yeah.
662
663 Q2: Where were they? Could you – do you…
664
665 A: Uh, they were, uh, they were one canyon over from where the ranch house
666 was.
667
668 Q2: Okay.
669
670 A: That’s, uh…
672 ((Crosstalk))
673
674 Q1: Can you point on the map for that?
675
676 A: I don’t know if I can or not on that one.
677
678 Q2: Well if you know, here’s – this is the deployment site. Here’s the ranch
679 houses.
680
681 A: Okay, so it would have been up in the back of this community right – I believe
682 s- I was told by, uh, one of the Engine Captains there was a piece of dozer line
683 that I never saw that was in there some place and they – I saw – when I was up
684 in this little draw here, Blue Ridge came out with, uh, looked like they were
685 three engines, a water tender, Blue Ridge Hotshot buggies and Granite
686 Mountain Hotshot buggies. And everybody was driving out.
687
688 Q1: Coming out?
689
690 A: Coming out. And I was like, well I guess everybody’s in the buggies. You
691 don’t ask those questions.
692
693 Q1: Yeah, yeah.
694
695 Q2: You saw the – the Granite Mountain buggies come out?
696
697 A: Yeah well they were parked and Blue Ridge was bringing them out.
698
699 Q2: Blue Ridge was helping?
700
701 A: Yeah.
——————————————————–
By the way… this is a SIDENOTE but as long as I’m quoting Sciacca’s ADOSH interview… here is where Sciacca himself says the ‘outflow winds’ had most definitely ALREADY arrived and were ‘driving the fire’. on the very next page of his ADOSH interview transcript.
( As if we needed any more proof it WAS an intense wind-driven event )…
——————————————————–
766 Q2: Uh, firing. Did – were – were – were you – did you notice firing or what they
767 were doing for – were they bringing the thing down the – the east flank?
768
769 A: Was never engaged to that level. Was never up – like I said, my – by the time
770 I got done with Darrell and got around, it was already, you know, the winds
771 had kind of set in from a – the outflows had set in. And it was moving fire
772 pretty fast.
773
774 Q1: Right.
775
776 A: Um, toward, uh, toward the highway and then toward – you could see it was
777 coming in flanking into Yarnell.
778
779 Q1: Yeah.
780
781 Q2: So it went – it went east but then more south?
782
783 A: It kind of co- the wind kind of came out of the north, uh, yeah north, northeast
784 and just kind of pushed that fire to the southeast, uh, quarter toward the road
785 right into – right into the backside of Yarnell.
786
787 Q1: Right.
788
789 A: I mean it was – it was aggressive fire behavior for the chaparral.
790
791 Q1: Yeah.
792
793 Q2: Mm-hm.
794
795 A: Very aggressive.
796
797 Q1: Yeah. What kind of flame lengths were you seeing there, Tony?
798
799 A: Probably 30-60 feet in most of that stuff.
800
801 Q1: Uh-huh.
802
803 A: And, uh, you know, at the peak when I left Gary, we had a couple of gusts that
804 would just lay it over. And just, you could see the preheating and just, you
805 know, it was rapid. Rapid rates of spread.
807 Q1: Uh-huh.
808
809 A: Being – being wind driven. It’s a wind driven fuel that chaparral is.
810
811 Q2: Yep.
812
813 A: Wind driven.
———————————————————
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> And, quite frankly, to be perfectly honest, I’m not totally trusting
>> Brandon’s account. There are like, what, five different accounts
>> of this thing?
>>
>> Which one is the correct one? Who knows??
Yes… but I ( personally ) do trust his account of this mysterious person he was mistaking for an ‘Incident Commander’ ordering him to move those vehicles.
He told that story to the Prescott News reporter and allowed it to be printed publicly… and his own public account on the Yarnell Recovery Group BLOG matches… so I assume he’s probably telling the truth about that part, anyway.
Even the new Hulburd videos now back up Brandon’s account of how they drove ‘slowly’ to the Shrine parking lot and the men ‘caught up with them’.
We can actually SEE that group of men ‘catching up’ to one of those trucks right there in Hulburd’s video… just as Brandon described it happening.
One of the men ( on foot ) actually gives kind of a “What the fuck??” arm gesture to the engine in front of them as they finally caught up with it.
That matches Brandon’s account of the men actually being PISSED when they arrived at the Youth Camp and discovered that the others had actually been forced to obey this mysterious ‘Incident Commander’ and they really did move the vehicles out of the Youth Camp where the poor guys running for their lives out of Harper Canyon had expected them to be.
I don’t know WHO that firefighter is in the new Hulburd video giving that “What the fuck??” gesture to the engine in front of him as he catches up to it. It’s hard to see his face.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> This was a crew that Gary Cordes ordered to begin evacuating
>> at 3:50. Apparently, according to Brandon’s account, they didn’t do that.
I think there’s a fair amount of CYA going on over that, yes.
It still could be that Cordes told Esquibel to take care of that… but he didn’t.
Brandon’s account that he SAW Blue Ridge coming (literally) hauling ass ‘out of the forest’ and he then wondered “They are the professionals and we are just volunteers… what are they not telling us?” indicates to me that even if someone was SUPPOSED to tell all those Peeples Valley FFs to ‘evacuate’ before then… no one ever did.
>> Marti also said…
>>
>> I don’t know how we can say anything definitive about this
>> with the conflicted stories that are out there.
Well… see above. I think the new Hulburd videos at least sort of VERIFY Brandon’s account of how the men he was told to ‘abandon’ out there in Harper Canyon finally did ‘catch up with them’. Some of the new Hulburd video now provides visual evidence of that happening exactly the way Brandon described it.
As for the ‘race for their lives’ on the part of those men who were working out at that far end of Harper Canyon… and whether it really was ‘Darby Starr’ who ‘saved them’ ( and received an award for it )… the only way to sort that out is with more ‘focused’ interviews or testimony.
I agree the only way to know for sure is re-interviewing.
Which is why I keep hoping that whatever further investigations are in the pipeline, they don’t just investigate the deployment incident.
All the other various places in which people ALMOST got injured, maimed, or killed, need to be just as carefully investigated.
And, yes, I’ll go back and compare that photo with that video. Having a visual bead on what Tony looked like on that fire is really helpful.
But I’ll tell you, those white helmets can be misleading. The video of Cougan and Rance standing by a fence has a guy in a white helmet standing next to them. Unfortunately, there’s no timestamp on that video.
But I need to do a whole bunch of other things first.
I was out doing defensible space and gardening and I am thinking who am I to question folks that are retired or current professionals? I am just the desert walker.
Professional integrity and ethical behavior is crucial for personal credibility and professional success within the business world. I am not a part of that world. I am sorry to Elizabeth Nowicki, Marti Reed and Bow Powers for ever questioning you all. I am a very independent stubborn individual and I see this whole thing in a different light that more details are present just not shown.
I am sorry!
Bow- Bob
oops
NO APOLIGY NESSARY
I am not sorry and you should not be either Joy. We were there that day and have been there too many times since that weekend with elite firefighters and experts. They have advised us and when we had questions they answered them. I am confident in their answers.
We did attend the Yarnell committee on building the memorial to the 19 on Shrine Rd. in Yarnell. A noble idea though estimates are 180 grand and above. Chuck Tidy thinks he can find some help on that. They did say that they would mention the tradgedy of the aftermath of the fire as well considering that 33 deaths have occurred–add another yesterday. That one was due to lung problems. I should say that has to be way above norm for deaths considering that Yarnell has a population of only 645 by 2014 census. Joy says there are more she has not counted yet.
Now about that idea of a fellow going down into that basin in six minutes or so. That is indeed possible considering that he was full of adrenalin and knowing that his fellows were lying there burned to death. That same hike we took with Bruce Hanna and Bret Steurer of OSHA. The were trying to determine times of going down just as they were and approximately where the GMHS went down. Bret managed it in 22 minutes and we know he was in good physical condition since he also runs the marathon. Unfrotunately Bruce fell on the steep decline and his injury slowed him to 33 minutes and Joy was just ahead of him by 3 minutes.
Now going down in the black is much quicker than battling the boulders, brush and steepness that was there before the fire. Add 100F temperatures, a full pack of 40 pounds, a hard hat, and a bulky 30 pound chain saw and 18 men ahead of you and god only knows how many fell like Bret then you can imagine how slow progress had to have been.
Just chiming in with a few points here…
>> sonny said…
>>
>> Now about that idea of a fellow going down into that basin
>> in six minutes or so. That is indeed possible considering that
>> he was full of adrenalin and knowing that his fellows were
>> lying there burned to death.
At the moment Blue Ridge Captain Trueheart Brown arrived at the top of the saddle and the ‘Descent Point’ location… even DPS medic Eric Tarr ( who was now already standing down there at the deployment site ) says in his signed deposition that he (quote) “Saw some firefighters appear at the top of the ridge and I waved them down”.
Captain Brown did NOT know the men were dead, at that point.
I believe Captain Brown ( like many Hotshots ) also had some EMT training in his background.
So he basically THREW himself down that slope, at that point, perhaps thinking that some/all of those men WERE still alive and badly in need of anyone with any EMT training.
Trueheart Brown was also in extraordinary shape… even as Hotshots go.
He is/was an avid Bike Racer… and I don’t mean out for a Sunday drive.
He regularly participates in those grueling distance runs.
The new Hulburd footage also now shows us that when he and Brian Frisby were ‘breaking through’ the fireline on the ground rescue mission… they did NOT have ‘packs’ on… so it can also be assumed that when Captain Brown reached the Descent Point and RAN down that slope… it was without a pack on to slow him down in any way.
Did not know that about Brown – checked and he is a Cat 1 racer, i.e. VERY elite. Believe me, he is in shape.
Did not know that about Brown. Checked and he a cat 1 racer – i.e. VERY elite. Believe me, he is in shape.
Did not know that about Brown. Checked and he is a cat 1 racer, i.e. VERY elite. Believe me, he is in shape.
He’s not just out there ‘riding along with the big boys’.
He has actually WON a number of these ‘Type 1’ bicycling events.that he has participated in. That ain’t shabby.
You do not even get to be a Cat 1 racer without having some serious results. You have to earn it.
And I imagine he has done it training less than 6 months out of every year – most of those he would race against train year round. His results would suggest his race season is about 3 months long (although am not sure how much racing there is in Arizona in June through August). In the videos he looks like a cyclist – he is rail-thin.
You don’t own me an apology for anything!
We all have our different backgrounds, skill sets, perspectives, valuable knowledge, opinions, mistakes, values, hassle factors, emotional ways, anger and frustration thresholds etc.
That’s why when this conversation works, and everybody is treating everybody with respect, it really goes quite well. I think we’ve done an amazing job.
Even when we disagree.
That’s why I love doing this. It’s quite a remarkable campfire circle.
And I’m glad you’re here!
As we still try to ‘get our heads around’ exactly what was ‘released’ publicly by the USFS ( via Arizona Forestry ) just last Saturday…
…I am feeling the need to CLARIFY something.
It was actually ‘Robert the Second’ ( RTS ) who posted the first ‘heads up’ message about this new material back on October 11… but I think a lot of people jumped to a (wrong) conclusion about ADOSH’s possible involvement with ‘the release’.
Let me just reprint again that initial ‘heads up’ post from RTS on October 11…
————————————————————————–
On October 11, 2014 at 8:28 pm, Robert the Second said…
I was contacted by two WFF that had engaged on the YHF to inform me the following: They were both independently contacted by ADOSH? Investigator(s) in the past few weeks and told that ADOSH? was about to release another 42-43 minutes of ADDITIONAL “HELMET CAM VIDEO” as the result of a formal records request.
One of the WFF claimed that this new footage would be “damaging to Marsh.” So, in order for it to be “damaging to Marsh” it would have to be footage PRIOR to the one we have all seen. Remember back when it was first released on IM and there was some weird images on the initial frames suggesting that it had been cut?
I was led to believe that this new footage would be kind of ‘officially released’ when I asked if it was going to be posted on YouTube.
————————————————————–
Notice above that BOTH time RTS refers to ADOSH in the message he was careful to add a QUESTION MARK after that ADOSH acronym.
That means RTS himself ( and/or his source ) was NOT SURE whether ADOSH was really involved with this upcoming ‘release’ or not.
RTS was doing the best he could to pass on some information he had… but it’s obvious that even his own sources weren’t quite sure what AGENCY might be actually involved with that ‘upcoming release’.
So it remains a ‘mystery’ whether ADOSH was either informed or involved in this new ‘evidence dump’ in any way.
Marshal Krotenberg ( lead investigator for the ADOSH Yarnell case ) might have been just as astonished as the rest of us to learn, last Saturday, that the US Forestry Service ( and Arizona Forestry ) have ALWAYS ( and most likely still are ) withholding crucial evidence from both the families of the men who died AND the people who were tasked ( by law ) with investigating this incident.
I’d love to actually hear ADOSH make some kind of ‘statement’ about what just happened last Saturday.
They are ABOUT to actually ‘review’ their findings as per the official legal request to do so that was filed by Arizona Forestry.
That ‘legal request for a review of the findings’ that the Arizona Attorney General’s office sent to ADOSH on behalf of Arizona Forestry actually says they think the findings should be ‘reversed’ because they think ADOSH made conclusions that were (quote) “Not based on substantive evidence”.
Now… last Saturday… Arizona Forestry itself just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that both THEY and the US Forestry Service have always been ‘withholding substantive evidence’ from ADOSH while they were actually DOING their investigation.
Talk about a Catch-22 here.
Someone is asking someone else to change their minds about their conclusions because they think they didn’t have enough evidence… but that same someone who was supposed to GIVE them the evidence they needed is now proving they were always WITHHOLDING a lot of it from them in the first place.
You just can’t make this shit up.
I would have loved to be a fly on the wall of THAT office!!!
Beaufort Scale: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/beaufort.html
When someone alleges that there were 40 mph or 45 mph outflow-boundary winds being felt by the guys on the ground at the YHF at 4:22 p.m., it can be helpful to go back to the multiple VIDEOS from that exact time period to see if they show visual EVIDENCE of winds of that magnitude at that particular time.
Specifically, the Beaufort Scale suggests that outflow-boundary winds of 40 to 45 mph would be evident in videos taken by guys at the fire by way of us seeing branches BREAKING off of trees and being moved through the air or lightweight lawn furniture falling/flying and WFFs being pushed or physically posturing to brace against the wind. An ATV or UTV trailer being pulled in 45 mph wind, for example, is going to show evidence of such. (While a heavy trailer might be immune to 45 mph outflow-boundary winds, a lightweight horse trailer or UTV trailer will not.)
I mention this in part because Bob indicated below that he believes that someone mentioning in their unit log that they felt 45 mph (or 40 mph) winds at 4:22 p.m. at the YHF means that there were ACTUALLY 45 mph (or 40 mph) winds at 4:22 p.m. from an alleged outflow-boundary being felt by the person who wrote the unit log hours or days later. It doesn’t.
P.S. I had said “Buford” scale previously, but I meant “Beaufort.” Sorry for the confusion. Common science/sence/sense. 😉
See my reply below Elisabeth addressed to me——–
Also note at 9:50 RTS left a note to Marti that accesses the Stanton Weather station history
access that the June 30, 2013 date and see the weather record from the closest station to the Fire.
As I posted down below:
40 mph winds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zKnSyeby4s
Marti Reed says
NOVEMBER 15, 2014 AT 12:01 PM
Shooting in a 30mph wind!:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vlONSxbDKQ
Good find, Marti. At the point where he gets behind the ‘trees’… both the SOUND and the MOVEMENT of the trees matches almost exactly what can be observed on a SUSTAINED basis in almost ALL of the Aaron Hulburd video footage.
There are actually places in Hulburd’s videos where the effect of the SUSTAINED wind on the trees around them is MUCH more dramatic than even this ’30 mph’ example.
Also… the ABC15 Helicopter footage totally supports these kind of SUSTAINED WINDS down there on the ground throughout the entire time that the ‘Air15’ chopper was over Yarnell that day ( 3:59 PM to 4:39 PM ).
I vote 30.
Although the wind could have been faster at the Youth Camp, where Tyson was, than further down Shrine Road where Aaron was.
Topography.
And since they were doing hourly local weather measurements at the Youth Camp sawing site, Tyson’s 45 mph could have actually been a measurement, rather than a memory.
And for simple sake out away from town and trees in the open brush flats of 6 to 10 ft. brush very well could be over 40 with the open conditions, Topography and fire conditions.
Pushing that fire into an upslope confine canyon would be like turning a
freight train loose. Common fire weather, fuels, topography and wind in a canyon/ chimney environment. Above 20MPH it is just Hell you don’t want to be any where near that environment.